Sammy Hernandez — OGILVIE

Sammy HernandezC Peoria Chiefs

Age 22 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 196 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .294 / .268

PA196

HR2

SB5

K%24

BB%10

BABIP244

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$9M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.3M
Totals		$11M		$36M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	67	125	67	192		83	19	6	74	-85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	67	125	67	192		77	12	6	100	-65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	3 teams	—	331	294	45	8	4	6	20	114	14	5	0	153	241	269	510	116	222	34	6	221	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	3 teams	—	331	282	64	12	5	7	32	71	14	5	0	227	335	379	715	152	277	21	10	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	3 teams	—	490	419	77	16	2	4	43	130	21	6	2	184	292	260	552	76	253	27	9	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	3 teams	—	490	412	99	21	2	5	50	89	21	6	2	240	352	337	689	97	293	18	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	3 teams	—	459	389	77	15	0	3	45	120	15	13	4	198	305	260	565	62	273	26	10	262	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	3 teams	—	459	378	88	16	0	3	55	80	15	13	4	233	352	299	651	66	283	17	12	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	STL	—	124	104	26	10	0	3	17	28	2	9	3	250	366	433	799	183	311	23	14	355	130	+4	+1	+0	+2	+4	1.1
YTD	22	A+	STL	—	124	97	31	12	0	4	24	21	2	9	3	320	463	567	1.030	247	370	17	19	448	201	+14	+1	+0	+2	+4	2.1
ROS	22	A+	STL	0%	196	168	31	8	0	2	20	48	6	5	2	185	294	268	562	83	246	24	10	273	67	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
ROS	22	MLB	STL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						246	0	0	252	51	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	STL	—	125	105	26	10	0	3	17	28	2	9	3	248	363	429	791	181	307	22	14	354	129	+4	+1	+0	+2	+4	1.1
TOT	22	A+	STL	—	320	272	57	18	0	5	37	76	8	14	5	210	322	331	653	121	269	24	12	305	91	-3	+1	+0	+6	+9	1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	STL	35%	424	367	71	17	1	6	43	102	11	9	3	193	297	294	591	101	250	24	10	279	72	-14	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.7
2028	24	MLB	STL	46%	476	412	84	20	1	9	49	112	12	10	3	204	307	323	629	119	255	24	10	288	78	-12	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.1
2029	25	MLB	STL	52%	505	436	90	21	1	10	52	118	12	11	4	206	308	328	636	122	257	23	10	292	82	-10	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.4
2030	26	MLB	STL	54%	520	449	93	21	1	11	53	121	13	11	4	207	309	332	641	125	258	23	10	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2031	27	MLB	STL	54%	520	448	93	21	1	11	54	122	13	11	4	208	311	333	643	125	257	23	10	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2032	28	MLB	STL	54%	520	448	93	21	1	11	54	122	13	11	3	208	311	333	643	125	257	23	10	293	83	-10	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.4
2033	29	MLB	STL	53%	517	446	91	21	1	10	54	123	12	10	3	204	307	323	630	119	256	24	10	291	81	-11	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.2
2034	30	MLB	STL	52%	508	437	89	20	1	10	54	122	12	9	3	204	308	323	631	119	255	24	11	288	79	-12	+1	-2	+9	+14	1.0
2035	31	MLB	STL	56%	480	416	83	19	1	9	50	117	11	7	2	200	302	315	617	115	252	24	10	284	76	-13	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.7
2036	32	MLB	STL	59%	448	387	76	17	1	8	47	111	11	6	2	196	301	307	609	111	249	25	10	279	72	-14	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.3
2037	33	MLB	STL	61%	408	352	68	15	1	7	43	103	10	4	1	193	299	301	600	108	244	25	11	272	67	-15	+0	-4	+7	+12	-0.0
2038	34	MLB	STL	56%	354	306	56	12	1	5	37	92	8	2	1	183	288	278	566	95	238	26	10	264	60	-16	+0	-5	+6	+10	-0.5
2027	23	MLB	STL	35%	147	127	24	6	0	2	15	35	4	3	1	189	295	283	578	94	250	24	10	259	57	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	STL	46%	220	190	39	9	1	4	22	52	6	5	2	205	307	326	634	121	254	24	10	269	64	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2029	25	MLB	STL	52%	261	226	47	11	1	5	27	61	6	6	2	208	309	332	641	124	257	23	10	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2030	26	MLB	STL	54%	282	244	52	12	1	6	29	66	7	6	2	213	314	344	659	131	257	23	10	276	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2031	27	MLB	STL	54%	282	244	51	12	1	6	29	66	7	6	2	209	311	340	651	131	257	23	10	276	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	28	MLB	STL	54%	282	243	50	11	1	6	30	66	7	6	2	206	311	333	644	128	257	23	11	275	69	-10	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.3
2033	29	MLB	STL	53%	275	237	48	11	1	5	29	65	7	5	2	203	308	321	628	118	256	24	11	273	67	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2034	30	MLB	STL	52%	266	230	47	11	1	5	28	64	6	5	1	204	307	326	633	122	254	24	11	271	65	-10	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.1
2035	31	MLB	STL	56%	271	234	47	11	1	5	29	66	6	4	1	201	305	321	625	120	252	24	11	267	62	-12	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.0
2036	32	MLB	STL	59%	265	229	44	10	0	5	28	65	6	3	1	192	297	301	598	109	248	25	11	261	58	-13	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.2
2037	33	MLB	STL	61%	249	215	40	9	0	4	26	63	6	2	1	186	291	284	575	98	244	25	10	255	53	-13	+0	-3	+4	+7	-0.4
2038	34	MLB	STL	56%	200	172	31	7	0	3	21	52	5	1	0	180	288	273	561	93	238	26	10	247	47	-12	+0	-3	+4	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3001	2592	520	120	8	56	313	721	73	52	17	201	304	318	622	117	254	24	10	268	63	-125	+4	-11	+54	+85	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	113	26	2	12	68	156	16	11	4	201	305	319	624	118	255	24	10	268	63	-27	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	7172	6189	1218	272	18	122	719	1780	194	130	41	197	300	306	606	109	253	25	10	278	71	-233	+10	-20	+128	+203	9.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	111	25	2	11	65	161	18	12	4	198	302	308	610	111	254	25	10	278	71	-21	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	67	125	67	192		77	12	6	100	-65	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2023	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	152	137	27	3	2	3	12	35	2	0	0	197	272	314	585	117	240	23	8	266	61	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2023	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	76	62	16	5	2	3	8	16	6	1	0	258	395	548	943	290	302	21	11	412	173	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2023	19	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	103	83	21	4	1	1	12	20	6	4	0	253	386	361	748	108	317	19	12	342	120	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.6
2024	20	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	33	23	3	0	0	2	6	8	3	0	0	130	375	391	766	261	77	24	18	347	124	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	20	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	350	295	78	19	2	2	38	60	14	3	2	264	375	363	737	98	323	17	11	338	117	+7	-0	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	20	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	107	94	18	2	0	1	6	21	4	3	0	191	269	245	514	53	233	20	6	237	40	-7	+1	—	—	+3	-0.4
2025	21	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	23	20	2	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	2	100	217	250	467	150	62	13	13	221	27	-2	-1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	360	293	69	11	0	2	46	67	14	12	1	235	364	294	658	58	295	19	13	309	95	-2	+2	—	—	+10	1.0
2025	21	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	76	65	17	5	0	0	6	10	1	1	1	262	333	338	672	77	298	13	8	292	82	-2	-0	—	—	+2	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,000	56	52	202	302	318	+54	+24	5.8	5.4
	/162	664	12	12	202	302	318	+11.9	+5.3	1.3	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sammy Hernandez (OGILVIE)	22	40	20	50	50	210/322/331	121	269	5	14	24%	12%	91	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	185/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	37	-2.7	210/264/277	67	293	4	6	28%	7%	48	-1.9	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	38→30	48→40	51	205/292/282	77	270	6	7	25%	10%	63	-0.8	226/312/290	64	313	3	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	233/324/284	51	328	2	2	26%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Nick Fortes 2019 · A	22	43→44	37→45	49→45	50	201/269/276	74	241	4	6	18%	8%	51	-1.7	202/266/306	104	249	10	5	22%	6%	58	-1.2	221/287/348	127	250	16	8	19%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2021 · A	22	45	38→40	47→45	46	212/265/289	77	262	5	6	20%	6%	52	-1.6	223/270/310	87	274	8	6	21%	6%	59	-1.1	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Dixon Mavares 2008 · A	22	46	35→30	47→50	50	212/288/274	62	252	2	11	16%	7%	59	-1.1	224/295/299	75	271	4	9	17%	8%	68	-0.5	241/316/306	65	285	2	11	15%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	34	-2.8	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	56	-1.3	240/291/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2021 · A	22	43	36→45	50→40	46	203/265/271	69	261	4	5	23%	7%	48	-1.9	218/265/320	102	270	9	4	22%	5%	60	-1.0	231/267/357	126	276	14	0	22%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Melvin Santana 2014 · A	22	42	37→45	51→50	45	200/253/283	83	254	3	11	22%	6%	45	-2.1	203/251/281	78	279	3	11	27%	6%	43	-2.2	195/231/264	69	262	0	19	24%	4%	29	-0.6
✕Luis Alberto Sanz 2013 · AA	22	43	36→30	47→40	44	201/249/263	62	248	3	8	20%	5%	38	-2.6	212/270/280	68	250	5	6	16%	7%	52	-1.6	217/279/252	35	248	2	2	12%	8%	46	-0.7
✕Juan Fernandez 2021 · A	22	42→52	38→40	46→50	43	203/260/282	79	265	5	6	25%	6%	48	-1.9	232/291/335	103	298	11	9	24%	6%	75	-0.0	239/301/332	93	297	10	9	22%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Alexis Wilson 2019 · A	22	41	38→40	48→30	45	195/262/274	79	263	5	4	27%	8%	47	-1.9	219/268/308	89	279	8	5	24%	6%	58	-1.2	222/264/298	76	267	10	1	21%	4%	51	-0.6
✕Carlos Alvarez 2008 · A	22	44	36→40	49→45	49	204/285/270	66	265	2	8	22%	8%	56	-1.3	227/306/316	89	269	4	8	16%	9%	77	+0.1	231/320/325	95	269	5	9	15%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Noe Becerra 2009 · AAA	22	42	37→30	44→40	46	201/262/269	69	259	5	7	24%	7%	46	-2.0	226/280/312	86	274	7	7	19%	7%	64	-0.8	274/319/333	59	310	3	0	12%	5%	84	+0.2
✕Felix Familia 2021 · A	22	41	35→30	48→45	45	195/266/257	62	273	3	7	28%	7%	45	-2.1	203/255/264	61	295	4	4	30%	5%	40	-2.4	191/241/233	42	275	3	1	30%	5%	24	-1.1
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Erlin Cerda 2016 · A	22	45	35→40	53→55	47	208/277/280	72	264	1	14	20%	7%	55	-1.4	198/248/269	71	293	2	9	31%	5%	39	-2.5	163/196/205	43	251	0	8	34%	3%	-4	-1.3
●Levi Michael 2013 · A	22	40→50	36→45	52→55	48	189/266/251	62	254	3	6	25%	8%	43	-2.2	211/283/293	82	280	5	16	24%	8%	61	-1.0	226/293/341	115	319	10	11	30%	5%	75	+0.0