Sammy Hernandez

C Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs A+ HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#553ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+/A/INTL2 orgs	490	.240/.352/.337	5	6	60	—	.202/.306/.292
2025	21	A+/A/INTL2 orgs	459	.233/.352/.299	3	13	59	—	.196/.300/.253
2026	22	A+/INTL2 orgs	302	.281/.403/.502	11	25	108	—	.227/.335/.417
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBSTL	1	.197/.297/.305	0	0	75	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBSTL	69	.202/.301/.316	1	2	78	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBSTL	135	.205/.303/.322	3	4	81	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Z-Con%97

wOBA92

wRC+91

ISO89

Whiff%89

BB%87

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 72%

CompsGraysen Tarlow (age 23) · Taylor Krick (age 23) · Christian Cairo (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .297 / .305

PA1

HR0

K%23

BB%10

BABIP245

ISO115

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	67	125	67	192		77	12	6	100	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	152	137	27	3	2	3	12	35	2	0	0	197	272	314	585	117	240	23	8	266	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	76	62	16	5	2	3	8	16	6	1	0	258	395	548	943	290	302	21	11	412	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	103	83	21	4	1	1	12	20	6	4	0	253	386	361	748	108	317	19	12	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	33	23	3	0	0	2	6	8	3	0	0	130	375	391	766	261	77	24	18	347	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	350	295	78	19	2	2	38	60	14	3	2	264	375	363	737	98	323	17	11	338	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	107	94	18	2	0	1	6	21	4	3	0	191	269	245	514	53	233	20	6	237	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	23	20	2	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	2	100	217	250	467	150	62	13	13	221	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	360	293	69	11	0	2	46	67	14	12	1	235	364	294	658	58	295	19	13	309	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	76	65	17	5	0	0	6	10	1	1	1	262	333	338	672	77	298	13	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	253	204	57	18	0	11	43	47	4	21	5	279	414	529	944	250	311	19	17	412	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	49	45	13	2	1	0	4	5	0	4	1	289	347	378	725	89	325	10	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	67	125	67	192		66	19	6	73	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	152	140	22	2	2	2	9	50	2	0	0	157	219	243	461	86	215	33	6	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	76	65	11	3	1	2	5	23	6	1	0	169	289	338	628	169	224	30	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	33	24	3	0	0	2	5	10	3	0	0	125	344	375	719	250	72	30	15	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	350	306	64	13	2	2	27	84	14	3	2	209	303	284	587	75	274	24	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	23	21	2	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	2	95	174	238	412	143	58	17	9	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	360	307	62	10	0	2	33	91	14	12	1	202	308	254	562	52	266	25	9	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	253	216	49	14	0	9	31	60	4	21	5	227	335	417	751	190	263	24	12	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	67	125	67	192		83	19	6	73	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	67	125	67	192		77	12	6	100	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	331	294	47	8	4	6	20	106	14	5	0	160	247	276	522	116	223	32	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	331	282	64	12	5	7	32	71	14	5	0	227	335	379	715	152	277	21	10	323	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	490	421	85	17	2	4	41	121	21	6	2	202	304	280	585	78	271	25	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	490	412	99	21	2	5	50	89	21	6	2	240	352	337	689	97	293	18	10	317	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	459	392	76	12	0	3	42	114	15	13	4	194	296	247	544	54	261	25	9	249	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	459	378	88	16	0	3	55	80	15	13	4	233	352	299	651	66	283	17	12	302	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	302	259	59	17	0	11	37	71	4	25	6	228	333	421	754	193	268	24	12	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	302	249	70	20	1	11	47	52	4	25	6	281	403	502	905	221	314	17	16	398	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	67	125	67	192		66	19	6	73	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	331	294	47	8	4	6	20	106	14	5	0	160	247	276	522	116	218	32	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	490	425	85	17	2	4	41	121	21	6	2	200	304	278	582	78	257	25	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	459	399	76	12	0	3	42	114	15	13	4	190	296	243	539	53	254	25	9	249	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	302	258	59	17	0	11	37	71	4	25	6	229	333	422	756	194	263	24	12	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	490	425	85	17	2	4	41	121	21	6	2	200	304	278	582	78	257	25	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	459	399	76	12	0	3	42	114	15	13	4	190	296	243	539	53	254	25	9	249	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	302	258	59	17	0	11	37	71	4	25	6	229	333	422	756	194	263	24	12	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	0%	363	315	62	13	1	7	37	83	8	10	3	197	297	307	603	110	242	23	10	278	75	-11	+1	+0	+6	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	197	297	305	602	107	245	0	0	278	75	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	38%	181	157	32	7	0	4	18	41	4	5	1	201	300	318	619	117	246	23	10	284	78	-5	+1	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	55%	244	212	43	9	1	5	25	55	5	7	2	204	302	325	628	121	248	23	10	288	81	-6	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	64%	297	259	53	11	1	6	30	67	6	8	2	206	303	329	633	123	250	23	10	289	82	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	66%	324	282	58	12	1	7	32	73	7	8	2	207	303	331	634	123	252	23	10	290	82	-7	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	67%	336	293	61	13	1	7	33	77	7	7	2	207	302	330	632	122	253	23	10	289	81	-7	+1	-1	+6	+7	0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	66%	334	292	61	13	1	7	33	77	6	6	2	205	299	323	622	118	251	23	10	285	79	-8	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	71%	329	288	58	12	1	6	32	77	6	4	2	202	296	315	611	113	249	23	10	280	76	-9	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	74%	300	262	52	11	0	6	29	71	6	2	1	197	291	305	596	108	246	24	10	274	72	-10	+0	-3	+5	+6	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	38%	69	60	12	3	0	1	7	16	2	2	0	202	301	316	616	114	248	23	10	283	78	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	55%	135	117	24	5	0	3	14	30	3	4	1	205	303	322	625	118	250	22	10	287	81	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	64%	189	164	34	8	0	4	19	43	4	5	1	207	304	326	630	120	252	23	10	288	82	-4	+1	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	66%	213	186	37	8	0	4	21	48	4	5	1	207	303	327	631	120	254	23	10	289	82	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	67%	224	196	40	9	0	4	22	51	4	5	1	208	302	327	629	119	255	23	10	288	81	-5	+1	-0	+4	+5	0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	66%	220	192	39	9	0	4	22	51	4	4	1	205	299	320	620	115	253	23	10	284	79	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	71%	233	204	41	9	0	4	23	55	4	3	1	202	296	313	608	111	251	24	10	279	76	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	74%	223	195	38	8	0	4	22	53	4	1	1	198	291	303	594	105	248	24	10	273	72	-8	-0	-2	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1506	1314	265	59	0	28	150	347	29	29	7	202	297	311	608	109	251	23	10	284	73	-38	+3	-5	+27	+33	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	567	114	25	0	12	65	150	13	13	3	201	298	309	607	108	250	23	10	284	73	-16	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4092	3556	712	148	12	75	388	987	104	100	27	200	297	312	609	112	253	24	9	276	73	-63	+4	-7	+45	+54	3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	114	24	2	12	62	157	17	16	4	202	300	315	615	113	255	24	10	276	73	-17	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 253 PAwOBA .405 → .328 (−77)K% 18.6% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.58%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	23.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.00%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	12.21%
HBP% /PA	1.58%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.26%
Singles /BIP	17.83%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.968	×1.012	16.08%
Doubles /BIP	11.46%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.968	×1.012	9.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.968	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.01%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	5.67%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .405 → .328; ISO .250 → .204; BABIP .311 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 360 PAwOBA .305 → .253 (−51)K% 18.6% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.61%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	25.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.78%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.06%
HBP% /PA	3.89%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	3.08%
Singles /BIP	24.78%	÷0.995	×0.920	×0.961	×1.015	22.37%
Doubles /BIP	4.87%	÷0.896	×0.830	×0.961	×1.015	4.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.961	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.88%	÷0.973	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.74%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .305 → .253; ISO .058 → .051; BABIP .295 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 23 PAwOBA .215 → .182 (−33)K% 13.0% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.04%	÷0.951	×1.270	—	—	17.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.04%	÷1.027	×0.710	—	×1.027	9.26%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.010	×0.920	—	×1.027	5.50%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.083	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.926	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷0.857	×0.800	—	×1.027	5.64%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .215 → .182; ISO .150 → .143; BABIP .062 → .058. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 350 PAwOBA .332 → .262 (−70)K% 17.1% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.14%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.86%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	×1.030	7.72%
HBP% /PA	4.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	3.21%
Singles /BIP	23.40%	÷1.040	×0.920	×0.976	×1.030	20.81%
Doubles /BIP	8.09%	÷1.153	×0.830	×0.976	×1.030	5.85%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷0.946	×0.910	×0.976	×1.030	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	0.85%	÷1.036	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.68%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .332 → .262; ISO .098 → .073; BABIP .323 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 33 PAwOBA .339 → .287 (−52)K% 24.2% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.24%	÷1.006	×1.270	—	—	30.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷0.930	×0.710	—	×1.042	14.47%
HBP% /PA	9.09%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	7.48%
Singles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.995	×0.920	—	×1.042	6.42%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.042	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.33%	÷0.993	×0.800	—	×1.042	11.20%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .339 → .287; ISO .261 → .229; BABIP .077 → .072. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 152 PAwOBA .260 → .203 (−58)K% 23.0% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.03%	÷0.950	×1.360	—	—	32.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.69%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.07%
Singles /BIP	18.63%	÷0.998	×0.920	×0.950	×1.045	17.04%
Doubles /BIP	2.94%	÷1.007	×0.830	×0.950	×1.045	2.41%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷1.023	×0.910	×0.950	×1.045	1.73%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷1.010	×0.800	—	×1.045	2.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .260 → .203; ISO .117 → .088; BABIP .240 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Cardinals · 76 PAwOBA .401 → .281 (−120)K% 21.1% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	30.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	6.58%
HBP% /PA	7.89%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	5.73%
Singles /BIP	13.04%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.976	×1.008	10.51%
Doubles /BIP	10.87%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.976	×1.008	7.69%
Triples /BIP	4.35%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.976	×1.008	3.08%
Home runs /BIP	6.52%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	5.13%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .401 → .281; ISO .290 → .206; BABIP .302 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 16 PAwOBA .098 → .073 (−25)K% 12.5% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷1.013	×1.440	—	—	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷0.970	×0.620	—	×1.022	4.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.981	×0.820	—	×1.022	6.58%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.953	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.904	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .098 → .073; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .077 → .066. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
#6Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	3.1	2,047	34	1	218*	292*	337*	+35	-0	2.6	3.3
/162	664	11	0	+11.4	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.3	1,507	31	29	205	297	323	+27	+20	3.2	3.1
/162	664	14	13	+11.9	+8.8	1.4	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sammy Hernandez (OGILVIE)	23	40	20	50	50	195/294/304	109	242	3	4	23%	10%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Graysen Tarlow 2024 · A	23	45	43→30	49→40	50	217/307/331	113	283	10	8	25%	9%	84	+0.1	211/291/285	74	299	6	6	29%	8%	68	-1.0	224/307/292	68	313	6	7	28%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	39→30	48→40	50	207/292/287	80	272	6	7	25%	9%	68	-1.0	226/310/289	63	311	3	5	26%	8%	76	-0.4	233/322/283	50	324	2	2	25%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Christian Cairo 2024 · A	23	42→49	39→40	51→60	53	197/301/281	84	282	6	16	29%	12%	71	-0.8	218/307/294	76	305	4	26	27%	10%	76	-0.4	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→47	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	206/282/335	129	268	13	9	27%	7%	76	-0.4	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Felix Valerio 2024 · AA	23	42→49	43→45	51→55	46	208/270/320	112	252	11	19	22%	7%	68	-1.0	210/274/309	99	281	9	14	27%	7%	66	-1.1	194/271/263	69	269	6	16	28%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Daniel Lyons 2009 · A	24	47	40	50	48	223/304/325	102	285	7	13	23%	8%	81	-0.1	196/280/278	82	263	5	14	25%	9%	62	-1.4	163/256/221	59	224	3	15	26%	10%	40	-1.4
✕Sean Jamieson 2013 · A	24	41→44	43→45	53→50	47	201/277/314	113	254	10	15	24%	8%	69	-0.9	225/285/338	113	297	9	10	26%	6%	77	-0.3	233/292/342	109	311	9	9	26%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Kramer Robertson 2018 · A	23	46→50	40	48→55	46	224/283/314	90	274	7	12	21%	6%	70	-0.8	218/296/308	90	263	7	12	19%	8%	74	-0.5	202/302/304	102	256	10	19	23%	10%	73	-0.5
✕Matthew Devins 2006 · A	23	45	43→40	52→45	48	219/287/328	109	251	10	11	17%	7%	76	-0.4	214/288/286	72	264	6	7	20%	8%	66	-1.1	208/287/259	51	256	4	4	19%	9%	59	-0.7
✕Connor Kokx 2023 · A	23	43	41→40	48→60	49	207/295/306	98	272	9	14	26%	9%	74	-0.6	211/296/289	78	296	5	24	28%	8%	70	-0.8	203/295/264	61	294	3	34	29%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	209/300/336	128	267	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	201/292/339	138	285	13	8	31%	10%	80	-0.1	178/280/321	143	246	16	6	32%	11%	70	-0.6
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	43→41	40	49→50	53	207/294/304	97	258	7	13	22%	10%	73	-0.6	215/293/305	90	277	7	10	23%	9%	72	-0.7	208/294/273	65	268	4	6	22%	9%	62	-0.6
✕Lolo Sanchez 2022 · A	23	44→45	45	53→55	48	220/295/343	124	262	13	23	21%	8%	82	+0.0	208/283/298	90	252	9	13	20%	8%	68	-1.0	193/271/258	65	233	6	9	19%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Tanner Schobel 2024 · AA	23	45→44	43→45	53→50	48	219/290/326	107	277	11	10	24%	8%	76	-0.4	200/271/309	109	265	11	11	27%	8%	65	-1.2	188/262/291	103	248	10	12	27%	8%	55	-1.4
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	49	206/292/311	105	279	9	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	222/303/310	88	316	7	6	29%	9%	78	-0.3	239/331/311	72	336	7	6	28%	11%	86	+0.1
✕Casey Yamauchi 2024 · AA	23	45→54	42→40	48→55	44	220/285/323	103	276	9	12	23%	6%	74	-0.6	233/283/300	67	261	4	17	12%	4%	67	-1.1	241/290/307	66	267	4	19	11%	4%	68	-0.7
✕Chris Denove 2006 · A	23	43	40	46→40	46	208/282/298	90	275	7	5	26%	8%	67	-1.1	197/256/268	71	266	4	4	26%	6%	49	-2.4	242/298/332	90	292	6	3	18%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Onix Vega 2022 · A	23	44	38→30	51→45	45	210/281/291	81	271	6	7	24%	7%	65	-1.2	209/282/282	73	275	5	6	24%	8%	63	-1.4	198/277/253	56	260	4	5	23%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Rayner Contreras 2010 · A	23	48	39→40	50	47	230/296/319	89	290	6	13	22%	7%	76	-0.4	216/267/291	75	309	5	10	30%	6%	58	-1.7	213/236/234	20	327	0	4	34%	3%	28	-0.7

Sammy Hernandez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps