Brennen Davis — OGILVIE

Brennen DavisCF Tacoma Rainiers

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 210 lbs AAA HR +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .299 / .378

PA211

HR8

K%30

BB%7

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

33→33

PWR

61→61

SPD

44→44

EYE

50→50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$12M		$20M	+$8M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	72	61	13	1	0	0	6	17	4	6	1	.213	.324	.230	.553	.016	.289	24	8	.270	65	-3	+1	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2019	19	A	South Bend Cubs	204	182	46	7	2	7	13	50	5	4	1	.253	.320	.429	.749	.176	.307	25	6	.309	95	-1	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.6
2021	21	AA	3 teams	416	369	77	20	0	15	31	154	15	8	4	.209	.296	.385	.681	.176	.308	37	7	.298	86	-7	+0	+0	+1	+12	0.7
2022	22	AAA	4 teams	235	205	32	6	0	5	18	89	8	1	1	.156	.251	.259	.510	.102	.235	38	8	.225	31	-18	-0	+0	+1	+7	-1.1
2023	23	AAA	2 teams	281	250	38	7	0	4	15	84	13	9	3	.152	.237	.228	.465	.076	.206	30	5	.216	23	-24	+1	+0	+1	+8	-1.5
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	217	181	33	6	0	9	21	62	13	1	1	.182	.312	.365	.676	.182	.214	29	10	.294	83	-4	-0	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2025	25	AAA	3 teams	198	177	36	5	0	12	13	71	6	3	0	.203	.281	.435	.716	.232	.250	36	7	.304	91	-2	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	68	55	11	2	0	2	8	17	3	0	0	.200	.333	.345	.679	.145	.237	25	12	.294	83	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
ROS	26	MLB	SEA	143	124	26	5	0	5	12	42	6	2	1	.210	.310	.371	.681	.161	.268	29	8	.307	93	-1	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.4
TOT	26	MLB	SEA	211	179	37	7	0	7	20	59	9	2	1	.207	.317	.363	.680	.156	.259	28	9	.303	90	-2	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 25%	SEA	275	239	52	9	1	10	24	71	10	4	1	.218	.315	.389	.704	.172	.262	26	9	.314	99	-0	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.9
2028	28	MLB 37%	SEA	322	279	61	11	1	11	29	83	11	4	1	.219	.317	.384	.700	.165	.264	26	9	.314	99	-1	+0	-1	+1	+9	1.0
2029	29	MLB 47%	SEA	341	297	65	11	1	12	30	88	11	3	1	.219	.314	.384	.697	.165	.264	26	9	.313	97	-1	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.9
2030	30	MLB 55%	SEA	354	308	67	12	1	12	32	93	11	3	1	.218	.313	.380	.693	.162	.264	26	9	.310	95	-2	+0	-2	+1	+10	0.8
2031	31	MLB 66%	SEA	345	300	64	11	1	11	31	92	11	2	0	.213	.310	.367	.677	.153	.262	27	9	.306	92	-3	+0	-3	+1	+10	0.6
2032	32	MLB 75%	SEA	329	287	60	10	1	11	29	89	10	1	0	.209	.304	.366	.670	.157	.260	27	9	.301	89	-4	+0	-4	+1	+9	0.3
2033	33	MLB 83%	SEA	302	263	53	9	0	9	27	84	9	0	0	.202	.298	.338	.636	.137	.259	28	9	.296	84	-5	+0	-4	+1	+9	0.0
2034	34	MLB 89%	SEA	260	227	46	8	0	8	23	74	8	0	0	.203	.298	.344	.642	.141	.256	28	9	.289	79	-6	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.3
2035	35	MLB	SEA	209	183	35	6	0	6	18	62	6	0	0	.191	.285	.322	.607	.131	.254	30	9	.281	73	-6	+0	-6	+1	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4503	3932	804	144	8	147	372	1305	157	51	16	.204	.299	.357	.656	.153	.262	29	8	.293	82	-90	+4	-25	+16	+128	3.3
/ 162G	—			650	568	116	21	1	21	54	188	23	7	2	.204	.300	.356	.655	.151	.262	29	8	.293	82	-13	+1	-4	+2	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	72	57	17	2	0	0	10	12	4	6	1	.298	.437	.333	.770	.035	.370	17	14	.362	135	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2019	19	A	South Bend Cubs	204	177	54	9	3	8	18	38	5	4	1	.305	.385	.525	.910	.220	.346	19	9	.392	158	+13	+0	—	—	+6	2.0
2021	21	AAA	Iowa Cubs	68	56	15	3	0	4	11	15	1	0	0	.268	.397	.536	.933	.268	.297	22	16	.409	171	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2021	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	316	266	67	20	0	13	36	97	13	6	4	.252	.368	.474	.842	.222	.344	31	11	.374	144	+16	-0	—	—	+9	2.5
2021	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	32	28	9	2	0	2	3	6	1	2	0	.321	.406	.607	1.013	.286	.350	19	9	.440	195	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2022	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	174	141	27	6	0	4	23	52	6	0	1	.191	.329	.319	.649	.128	.258	30	13	.298	86	-3	-0	—	—	+5	0.2
2022	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	.130	.130	.130	.261	.000	.200	35	0	.118	-51	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	22	ROK	ACL Cubs	17	14	2	0	0	1	2	5	1	0	0	.143	.294	.357	.651	.214	.125	29	12	.301	88	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2022	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	21	18	5	1	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	.278	.381	.667	1.048	.389	.200	5	10	.447	200	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	257	219	41	8	0	4	22	58	13	9	3	.187	.299	.279	.578	.091	.231	23	9	.271	66	-10	+1	—	—	+7	-0.2
2023	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	24	24	5	2	0	1	0	12	0	0	0	.208	.208	.417	.625	.208	.364	50	0	.269	64	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	181	145	31	4	0	11	23	42	11	1	1	.214	.363	.469	.832	.255	.213	23	13	.368	140	+8	-0	—	—	+5	1.3
2024	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	36	28	7	3	0	0	6	9	2	0	0	.250	.417	.357	.774	.107	.368	25	17	.365	137	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	142	125	31	5	0	12	11	44	4	1	0	.248	.329	.576	.905	.328	.268	31	8	.385	153	+8	+0	—	—	+4	1.3
2025	25	AA	Somerset Patriots	35	26	6	0	0	2	8	9	1	1	0	.231	.429	.462	.890	.231	.267	26	23	.403	166	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	25	ROK	FCL Yankees	21	19	9	2	0	3	1	4	1	1	0	.474	.524	1.053	1.576	.579	.500	19	5	.660	363	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brennen Davis (OGILVIE)	26	33	61	44	50	.210/.299/.378	.168	.273	8	3	30%	7%	93	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2022 · MLB	26	39→37	53→55	43→40	47	.207/.296/.381	.174	.274	20	3	31%	9%	91	+1.1	.196/.287/.363	.167	.257	19	6	30%	10%	82	+0.5	.177/.274/.338	.161	.222	20	6	29%	11%	68	-0.3
✕Clint Frazier 2021 · MLB	26	47→46	53→55	45→50	46	.239/.309/.416	.177	.301	20	7	27%	8%	105	+2.1	.208/.299/.346	.138	.295	15	9	32%	10%	82	+0.5	.182/.281/.299	.117	.270	12	10	34%	10%	61	-0.5
✕Jabari Blash 2015 · AAA	26	38→40	53→60	46→50	44	.204/.288/.378	.175	.284	22	10	35%	9%	87	+0.8	.210/.302/.404	.194	.292	25	8	35%	10%	99	+1.7	.201/.308/.395	.194	.284	25	5	36%	11%	96	+1.0
✕J.P. Arencibia 2012 · MLB	26	38→47	57→60	43→30	42	.211/.264/.405	.194	.248	25	2	27%	6%	83	+0.6	.215/.260/.405	.190	.260	26	3	29%	5%	82	+0.5	.202/.243/.386	.184	.242	27	1	30%	4%	67	-0.4
●Tom Murphy 2016 · MLB	25	38→35	52→65	43→45	37	.203/.257/.368	.166	.281	21	5	35%	6%	71	-0.3	.211/.255/.384	.173	.307	20	5	37%	5%	74	-0.1	.244/.316/.459	.215	.308	30	2	30%	9%	117	+1.2
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	45→49	52→55	44→30	46	.235/.294/.401	.166	.288	20	3	26%	8%	94	+1.3	.232/.287/.380	.148	.304	18	3	28%	7%	85	+0.7	.223/.277/.353	.130	.278	13	2	24%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Andrew Young 2020 · AAA	26	43→46	53→55	45→40	40	.225/.299/.396	.172	.277	22	5	27%	5%	96	+1.5	.214/.296/.392	.178	.300	21	5	35%	7%	94	+1.3	.187/.272/.359	.173	.302	21	4	42%	7%	72	-0.1
✕David Villar 2023 · MLB	26	42	59→60	44→40	45	.227/.314/.440	.213	.296	28	4	32%	9%	114	+2.7	.213/.295/.379	.166	.285	21	5	31%	9%	90	+1.0	.201/.283/.336	.135	.271	17	4	31%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Eric Haase 2019 · MLB	26	37→41	54→65	46→40	36	.201/.252/.380	.179	.282	23	5	37%	6%	71	-0.3	.207/.261/.403	.196	.292	27	5	38%	6%	82	+0.5	.218/.277/.437	.219	.284	32	2	35%	7%	94	+0.9
✕Jerry Sands 2013 · MLB	25	43→46	54→60	47→45	46	.227/.292/.406	.179	.277	23	6	27%	8%	95	+1.4	.214/.281/.357	.143	.281	17	3	29%	8%	77	+0.1	.236/.302/.383	.147	.286	16	2	23%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Renato Núñez 2020 · MLB	26	44→51	55→60	44→30	44	.235/.296/.415	.180	.285	24	3	27%	7%	99	+1.7	.243/.309/.448	.205	.293	28	3	27%	7%	114	+2.7	.233/.304/.458	.225	.279	32	1	29%	7%	111	+1.4
✕Wendell Rijo 2022 · AAA	26	40→42	53→55	47→50	40	.218/.270/.388	.170	.274	22	9	30%	6%	81	+0.4	.220/.281/.366	.146	.293	16	17	29%	7%	80	+0.4	.223/.287/.368	.145	.289	15	27	27%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	36→33	52→55	50	44	.192/.280/.359	.167	.275	20	12	36%	9%	79	+0.3	.185/.266/.345	.160	.294	20	12	41%	8%	69	-0.4	.162/.246/.317	.156	.267	21	12	45%	8%	51	-1.1
✕Christin Stewart 2020 · MLB	26	43→45	52→55	46→45	47	.226/.298/.391	.165	.279	20	2	26%	8%	93	+1.3	.216/.288/.389	.173	.281	22	5	30%	8%	89	+0.9	.193/.272/.381	.189	.263	26	7	36%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Devin Mann 2023 · AAA	26	41→45	50→55	43→45	47	.213/.295/.369	.157	.269	18	5	28%	8%	87	+0.8	.217/.296/.366	.149	.290	16	5	29%	9%	87	+0.8	.206/.289/.344	.138	.278	15	4	30%	9%	75	-0.0
●Ryan Schimpf 2014 · AA	26	36→39	53→60	45	46	.198/.279/.371	.174	.261	21	5	32%	9%	81	+0.4	.202/.279/.395	.193	.252	24	4	30%	9%	88	+0.9	.201/.284/.419	.218	.235	28	2	28%	9%	91	+0.9
✕Isan Díaz 2023 · MLB	27	40	52→55	45	47	.212/.291/.378	.166	.276	21	8	31%	9%	88	+0.9	.211/.282/.386	.175	.275	24	9	32%	8%	85	+0.7	.177/.251/.338	.161	.207	27	6	30%	8%	58	-0.4
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	42	50	43→40	43	.209/.295/.363	.155	.298	17	4	34%	8%	86	+0.8	.225/.297/.384	.159	.313	17	4	32%	7%	92	+1.2	.221/.291/.378	.157	.312	18	2	33%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Travis Demeritte 2021 · MLB	26	41→43	53→60	48→50	41	.212/.280/.385	.172	.302	20	7	35%	8%	85	+0.7	.215/.275/.384	.169	.322	21	11	38%	7%	82	+0.5	.197/.256/.365	.168	.292	22	12	39%	7%	65	-0.3
●Trevor Plouffe 2013 · MLB	27	43→51	56→60	41→45	46	.230/.288/.420	.190	.256	24	5	22%	7%	97	+1.5	.247/.310/.417	.170	.286	20	4	20%	8%	105	+2.1	.250/.313/.423	.173	.285	19	2	19%	8%	105	+1.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)