Brennen Davis
CF Tacoma Rainiers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/A+CHC | 217 | .220/.372/.451 | 11 | 1 | 79 | — | .171/.302/.315 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AA/ROK2 orgs | 198 | .271/.367/.612 | 17 | 3 | 80 | — | .198/.275/.413 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAASEA | 205 | .265/.381/.512 | 9 | 1 | 91 | — | .209/.307/.379 |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 27 | MLBSEA | 25 | .226/.312/.405 | 1 | 0 | 105 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 28 | MLBSEA | 82 | .226/.310/.400 | 3 | 1 | 103 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ55% MLB | 29 | MLBSEA | 109 | .224/.308/.395 | 4 | 1 | 101 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 72 | 57 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 298 | 437 | 333 | 770 | 35 | 370 | 17 | 14 | 362 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 204 | 177 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 305 | 385 | 525 | 910 | 220 | 346 | 19 | 9 | 392 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 68 | 56 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 397 | 536 | 933 | 268 | 297 | 22 | 16 | 409 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 316 | 266 | 67 | 20 | 0 | 13 | 36 | 97 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 252 | 368 | 474 | 842 | 222 | 344 | 31 | 11 | 374 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 32 | 28 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 321 | 406 | 607 | 1.013 | 286 | 350 | 19 | 9 | 440 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 174 | 141 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 329 | 319 | 649 | 128 | 258 | 30 | 13 | 298 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 23 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 261 | 200 | 35 | 0 | 118 | -54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 17 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 294 | 357 | 651 | 214 | 125 | 29 | 12 | 301 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 21 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 381 | 667 | 1.048 | 389 | 200 | 5 | 10 | 447 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 257 | 219 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 58 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 187 | 299 | 279 | 578 | 91 | 231 | 23 | 9 | 271 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 24 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 208 | 417 | 625 | 208 | 364 | 50 | 0 | 269 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 181 | 145 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 23 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 363 | 469 | 832 | 255 | 213 | 23 | 13 | 368 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 36 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 417 | 357 | 774 | 107 | 368 | 25 | 17 | 365 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 142 | 125 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 248 | 329 | 576 | 905 | 328 | 268 | 31 | 8 | 385 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 35 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 429 | 462 | 890 | 231 | 267 | 26 | 23 | 403 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 21 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 474 | 524 | 1.053 | 1.576 | 579 | 500 | 19 | 5 | 660 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 205 | 170 | 45 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 265 | 381 | 512 | 893 | 247 | 305 | 22 | 12 | 388 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 72 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 230 | 338 | 246 | 584 | 16 | 301 | 24 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 204 | 182 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 320 | 429 | 749 | 176 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 68 | 59 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 338 | 441 | 779 | 203 | 267 | 25 | 12 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 316 | 278 | 59 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 119 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 212 | 305 | 381 | 686 | 169 | 323 | 38 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 32 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 312 | 483 | 795 | 241 | 307 | 25 | 6 | 354 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 174 | 148 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 169 | 276 | 264 | 540 | 95 | 244 | 36 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 23 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 174 | 182 | 43 | 0 | 89 | -54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 235 | 333 | 569 | 200 | 97 | 41 | 6 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 257 | 225 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 160 | 256 | 227 | 483 | 67 | 207 | 26 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 24 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 83 | 125 | 208 | 42 | 286 | 67 | 0 | 134 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 181 | 151 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 296 | 325 | 621 | 159 | 186 | 28 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 36 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 333 | 267 | 600 | 67 | 309 | 31 | 11 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 142 | 129 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 54 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 250 | 403 | 653 | 217 | 219 | 38 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 35 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 371 | 429 | 800 | 214 | 255 | 31 | 17 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 21 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 286 | 450 | 736 | 200 | 303 | 29 | 0 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 205 | 177 | 37 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 307 | 379 | 685 | 169 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 72 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 230 | 338 | 246 | 584 | 16 | 311 | 24 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 72 | 57 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 298 | 437 | 333 | 770 | 35 | 370 | 17 | 14 | 362 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 204 | 182 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 320 | 429 | 749 | 176 | 315 | 26 | 6 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 204 | 177 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 305 | 385 | 525 | 910 | 220 | 346 | 19 | 9 | 392 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 416 | 366 | 79 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 145 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 216 | 308 | 388 | 696 | 172 | 312 | 35 | 8 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 416 | 350 | 91 | 25 | 0 | 19 | 50 | 118 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 260 | 376 | 494 | 870 | 234 | 336 | 28 | 12 | 385 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 235 | 204 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 89 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 255 | 245 | 501 | 88 | 243 | 38 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 235 | 196 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 66 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 189 | 312 | 332 | 643 | 143 | 236 | 28 | 11 | 294 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 249 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 84 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 153 | 241 | 217 | 458 | 64 | 212 | 30 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 281 | 243 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 70 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 189 | 291 | 292 | 584 | 103 | 240 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 217 | 181 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 302 | 320 | 623 | 149 | 211 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 217 | 173 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 372 | 451 | 823 | 231 | 239 | 24 | 13 | 368 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 198 | 177 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 71 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 270 | 390 | 660 | 198 | 245 | 36 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 198 | 170 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 20 | 57 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 271 | 367 | 612 | 979 | 341 | 296 | 29 | 10 | 417 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 205 | 177 | 37 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 307 | 379 | 685 | 169 | 261 | 27 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 205 | 170 | 45 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 265 | 381 | 512 | 893 | 247 | 305 | 22 | 12 | 388 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 72 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 226 | 338 | 242 | 580 | 16 | 301 | 24 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 204 | 184 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 320 | 424 | 744 | 174 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 416 | 364 | 79 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 145 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 217 | 308 | 390 | 699 | 173 | 313 | 35 | 8 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 235 | 206 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 89 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 155 | 255 | 243 | 498 | 87 | 226 | 38 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 250 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 84 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 152 | 241 | 216 | 457 | 64 | 214 | 30 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 217 | 181 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 302 | 320 | 623 | 149 | 206 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 198 | 177 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 71 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 270 | 390 | 660 | 198 | 234 | 36 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 205 | 178 | 37 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 307 | 376 | 683 | 169 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 217 | 181 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 302 | 320 | 623 | 149 | 206 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 198 | 177 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 71 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 270 | 390 | 660 | 198 | 234 | 36 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 205 | 178 | 37 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 307 | 376 | 683 | 169 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | SEA | 30% | 230 | 203 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 314 | 412 | 725 | 183 | 284 | 27 | 8 | 323 | 105 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | SEA | 30% | 25 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 312 | 405 | 716 | 178 | 281 | 28 | 8 | 319 | 105 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | SEA | 48% | 170 | 150 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 228 | 312 | 407 | 719 | 179 | 283 | 27 | 8 | 320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 55% | 199 | 175 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 310 | 401 | 711 | 174 | 283 | 27 | 8 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | SEA | 48% | 82 | 74 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 310 | 400 | 710 | 175 | 281 | 27 | 7 | 317 | 103 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 55% | 109 | 96 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 308 | 395 | 702 | 170 | 280 | 28 | 8 | 314 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 191 | 170 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 52 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 305 | 394 | 699 | 171 | 277 | 27 | 8 | 315 | 79 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | 0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 129 | 27 | 0 | 24 | 51 | 177 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 223 | 304 | 394 | 698 | 171 | 276 | 27 | 8 | 315 | 79 | +1 | +1 | -4 | +2 | +14 | 1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2279 | 1995 | 401 | 84 | 3 | 67 | 174 | 698 | 86 | 37 | 11 | 201 | 293 | 347 | 640 | 146 | 267 | 31 | 8 | 286 | 79 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +10 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 114 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 50 | 199 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 200 | 294 | 346 | 640 | 146 | 266 | 31 | 8 | 286 | 79 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +14 | 1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 205 PAwOBA .384 → .303 (−80)K% 22.4% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 15.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 9.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 5.10% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .384 → .303; ISO .247 → .184; BABIP .305 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 142 PAwOBA .379 → .272 (−107)K% 31.0% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.99% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.75% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.28% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 15.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.944 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.81% | ÷1.070 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 9.87% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .379 → .272; ISO .328 → .212; BABIP .268 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASomerset Patriots · 35 PAwOBA .393 → .316 (−77)K% 25.7% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.71% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.86% | ÷0.977 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 16.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.969 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 23.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 8.80% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .393 → .316; ISO .231 → .175; BABIP .267 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 21 PAwOBA .637 → .332 (−306)K% 19.0% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.056 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 19.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.043 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 8.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.00% | ÷2.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 7.12% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 312, 1B 111, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .637 → .332; ISO .579 → .230; BABIP .500 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 181 PAwOBA .363 → .287 (−75)K% 23.2% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.20% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.71% | ÷0.949 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 5.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.53% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×1.033 | 14.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.88% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.033 | 3.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.68% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 7.16% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .363 → .287; ISO .255 → .175; BABIP .213 → .186. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 36 PAwOBA .357 → .276 (−81)K% 25.0% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 11.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 4.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 18.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 12.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .357 → .276; ISO .107 → .082; BABIP .368 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 257 PAwOBA .268 → .227 (−41)K% 22.6% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.57% | ÷1.019 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.56% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 4.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.01% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.048 | 16.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.97% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.048 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 110, 3B 83, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .268 → .227; ISO .091 → .071; BABIP .231 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 24 PAwOBA .261 → .134 (−127)K% 50.0% → 65.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.00% | ÷0.966 | ×1.270 | — | — | 65.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 15.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 11.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.197 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.50% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .261 → .134; ISO .208 → .097; BABIP .364 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).