Johanfran Garcia
C Portland Sea Dogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ASalem Red Sox | 60 | .385/.467/.596 | 2 | 0 | 127 | — | .315/.383/.500 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 318 | .252/.338/.446 | 14 | 1 | 68 | — | .184/.240/.326 |
| 2026 | 21 | AABOS | 348 | .284/.340/.494 | 18 | 4 | 88 | — | .245/.291/.408 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBBOS | 4 | .234/.281/.396 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ32% MLB | 23 | MLBBOS | 103 | .237/.287/.405 | 4 | 1 | 89 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBBOS | 175 | .240/.291/.411 | 7 | 2 | 92 | 0.5 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | — | 161 | 138 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 268 | 369 | 333 | 702 | 65 | 325 | 16 | 13 | 324 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 68 | 59 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 288 | 305 | 593 | 102 | 306 | 35 | 7 | 267 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 179 | 149 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 302 | 412 | 497 | 909 | 195 | 367 | 21 | 11 | 400 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 60 | 52 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 385 | 467 | 596 | 1.063 | 212 | 514 | 25 | 10 | 467 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 196 | 173 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 330 | 428 | 758 | 179 | 321 | 31 | 9 | 336 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 38 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 350 | 632 | 982 | 316 | 310 | 19 | 2 | 404 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 80 | 67 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 350 | 388 | 738 | 164 | 271 | 21 | 15 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 348 | 320 | 91 | 13 | 0 | 18 | 22 | 103 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 284 | 340 | 494 | 834 | 209 | 365 | 30 | 6 | 366 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 161 | 145 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 166 | 244 | 207 | 451 | 41 | 207 | 20 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 68 | 61 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 148 | 212 | 230 | 442 | 82 | 281 | 49 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 179 | 156 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 305 | 340 | 645 | 128 | 282 | 30 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 60 | 54 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 315 | 383 | 500 | 883 | 185 | 469 | 37 | 7 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 196 | 180 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 84 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 232 | 283 | 515 | 111 | 268 | 43 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 275 | 526 | 801 | 289 | 226 | 29 | 2 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 348 | 326 | 80 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 126 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 245 | 291 | 408 | 699 | 163 | 348 | 36 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 161 | 145 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 166 | 244 | 207 | 451 | 41 | 211 | 20 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL BOS Red | — | 161 | 138 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 268 | 369 | 333 | 702 | 65 | 325 | 16 | 13 | 324 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 217 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 87 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 288 | 323 | 611 | 120 | 302 | 35 | 6 | 261 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 247 | 208 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 61 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 274 | 379 | 442 | 821 | 168 | 352 | 25 | 10 | 364 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 60 | 54 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 315 | 383 | 500 | 883 | 185 | 500 | 37 | 7 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 60 | 52 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 385 | 467 | 596 | 1.063 | 212 | 514 | 25 | 10 | 467 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 318 | 294 | 55 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 128 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 239 | 330 | 569 | 143 | 272 | 40 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 318 | 278 | 70 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 85 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 252 | 338 | 446 | 784 | 194 | 306 | 27 | 10 | 345 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 348 | 326 | 80 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 126 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 245 | 291 | 408 | 699 | 163 | 353 | 36 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 348 | 320 | 91 | 13 | 0 | 18 | 22 | 103 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 284 | 340 | 494 | 834 | 209 | 365 | 30 | 6 | 366 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 161 | 145 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 166 | 244 | 207 | 451 | 41 | 207 | 20 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 219 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 87 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 201 | 288 | 320 | 608 | 119 | 282 | 35 | 6 | 261 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 60 | 54 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 315 | 383 | 500 | 883 | 185 | 469 | 37 | 7 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 318 | 295 | 55 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 128 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 239 | 329 | 568 | 142 | 261 | 40 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 348 | 324 | 80 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 126 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 247 | 291 | 410 | 702 | 164 | 348 | 36 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 60 | 54 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 315 | 383 | 500 | 883 | 185 | 469 | 37 | 7 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 318 | 295 | 55 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 128 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 239 | 329 | 568 | 142 | 261 | 40 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 348 | 324 | 80 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 126 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 247 | 291 | 410 | 702 | 164 | 348 | 36 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | BOS | 2% | 458 | 427 | 97 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 22 | 134 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 228 | 276 | 390 | 666 | 161 | 288 | 29 | 5 | 294 | 85 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | BOS | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 281 | 396 | 677 | 162 | 298 | 25 | 0 | 299 | 85 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 32% | 319 | 295 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 282 | 398 | 680 | 167 | 289 | 29 | 5 | 300 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 46% | 382 | 353 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 107 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 234 | 286 | 404 | 690 | 170 | 290 | 28 | 5 | 304 | 92 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 54% | 413 | 381 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 24 | 114 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 289 | 406 | 695 | 171 | 290 | 28 | 6 | 306 | 94 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 58% | 431 | 398 | 93 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 25 | 118 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 290 | 406 | 696 | 170 | 290 | 27 | 6 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 59% | 435 | 401 | 94 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 26 | 118 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 291 | 404 | 694 | 168 | 290 | 27 | 6 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 60% | 432 | 398 | 92 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 26 | 119 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 289 | 399 | 688 | 166 | 289 | 28 | 6 | 304 | 92 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 59% | 422 | 389 | 89 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 25 | 117 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 286 | 393 | 678 | 162 | 287 | 28 | 6 | 300 | 89 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +8 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 59% | 409 | 378 | 85 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 115 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 228 | 282 | 385 | 667 | 157 | 285 | 28 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -7 | -1 | -3 | +7 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 58% | 375 | 346 | 78 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 107 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 224 | 277 | 375 | 652 | 151 | 282 | 29 | 6 | 289 | 82 | -8 | -0 | -4 | +7 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB MLE | BOS | 58% | 336 | 311 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 97 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 218 | 271 | 363 | 633 | 144 | 278 | 29 | 6 | 281 | 77 | -9 | -0 | -4 | +6 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 32% | 103 | 96 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 287 | 405 | 692 | 168 | 299 | 28 | 5 | 305 | 89 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 46% | 175 | 161 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 291 | 411 | 702 | 171 | 300 | 28 | 6 | 309 | 92 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 54% | 222 | 204 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 61 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 241 | 294 | 413 | 707 | 172 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 312 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 58% | 251 | 231 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 69 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 296 | 413 | 709 | 171 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 312 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 59% | 259 | 238 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 71 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 241 | 296 | 411 | 707 | 170 | 299 | 27 | 6 | 312 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 60% | 260 | 239 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 71 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 294 | 406 | 700 | 167 | 298 | 27 | 6 | 309 | 92 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 59% | 250 | 230 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 69 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 291 | 400 | 691 | 163 | 297 | 28 | 6 | 305 | 89 | -3 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 59% | 240 | 221 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 67 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 234 | 287 | 392 | 679 | 158 | 295 | 28 | 6 | 301 | 86 | -4 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 58% | 218 | 201 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 282 | 382 | 665 | 153 | 291 | 28 | 6 | 294 | 82 | -5 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB CTX | BOS | 58% | 195 | 180 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 224 | 276 | 369 | 645 | 145 | 287 | 29 | 6 | 286 | 77 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2173 | 2001 | 476 | 85 | 7 | 76 | 128 | 604 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 238 | 292 | 401 | 693 | 163 | 301 | 28 | 6 | 305 | 84 | -28 | -0 | -12 | +39 | +47 | 4.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 142 | 25 | 2 | 23 | 38 | 181 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 237 | 290 | 401 | 691 | 164 | 299 | 28 | 6 | 305 | 84 | -8 | -0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | 1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5298 | 4881 | 1106 | 181 | 13 | 185 | 303 | 1559 | 72 | 44 | 17 | 227 | 282 | 383 | 664 | 156 | 291 | 29 | 6 | 292 | 84 | -55 | +1 | -22 | +74 | +90 | 9.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 136 | 22 | 2 | 23 | 37 | 191 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 227 | 282 | 386 | 668 | 159 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 292 | 84 | -9 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 348 PAwOBA .357 → .298 (−59)K% 29.6% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.60% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 27.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 6.74% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .357 → .298; ISO .209 → .161; BABIP .365 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Greenville Drive · 196 PAwOBA .330 → .232 (−98)K% 30.6% → 42.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.61% | ÷0.936 | ×1.310 | — | — | 42.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.18% | ÷1.050 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.55% | ÷0.974 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 23.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.54% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.96% | ÷1.117 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 6.44% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 95, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 87, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .330 → .232; ISO .179 → .125; BABIP .321 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Red Sox · 42 PAwOBA .411 → .316 (−95)K% 19.0% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.965 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.38% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 1.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 15.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.101 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.815 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 9.43% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 107, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .411 → .316; ISO .316 → .263; BABIP .310 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASalem Red Sox · 60 PAwOBA .454 → .356 (−99)K% 25.0% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.948 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.14% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 33.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.51% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 10.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.933 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.77% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .454 → .356; ISO .212 → .159; BABIP .514 → .469. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Red Sox · 179 PAwOBA .395 → .282 (−113)K% 20.7% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.67% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | ×0.981 | ×1.008 | 20.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.93% | ÷1.079 | ×0.720 | ×0.981 | ×1.008 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.981 | ×1.008 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.46% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.60% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .395 → .282; ISO .195 → .136; BABIP .367 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASalem Red Sox · 68 PAwOBA .268 → .204 (−63)K% 35.3% → 48.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 48.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 21.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 7.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.999 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.39% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .268 → .204; ISO .102 → .076; BABIP .306 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL BOS Red · 161 PAwOBA .319 → .208 (−111)K% 15.5% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.53% | ÷0.957 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 8.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.66% | ÷1.064 | ×0.680 | ×1.005 | ×1.008 | 16.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷1.009 | ×0.600 | ×1.005 | ×1.008 | 3.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.999 | ×0.600 | ×1.005 | ×1.008 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 113, 2B 102, 3B 100, K 91, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .319 → .208; ISO .065 → .040; BABIP .325 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .