Alex Jackson

C St. Paul Saints

Age 31 R/R 6'1" / 238 lbs AAA Svc 3.918 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAAArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAATB	118	.238/.322/.533	8	0	70	—	.183/.246/.376
2024	28	MLBTB	155	.122/.203/.237	3	1	24	0.0
2025	29	AAAScranton/Wilk…	185	.226/.310/.463	10	1	45	—	.164/.223/.310
2025	29	MLBBAL	100	.220/.290/.473	5	0	107	1.4
2026	30	AAAMIN	95	.239/.295/.511	7	1	46	—	.167/.211/.322
2026	30	MLBMIN	73	.304/.342/.406	1	0	114	0.6
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBMIN	14	.207/.270/.373	0	0	79	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	32	MLBMIN	38	.202/.263/.360	1	0	73	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.918First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.7M2028Arb-2$0.7M2029Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd90

Barrel%58

Speed55

Avg EV23

xwOBA10

CompsJett Bandy (age 31) · Eric Haase (age 31) · Brian O'Keefe (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8279vR 69

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .270 / .373

PA14

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP262

ISO77

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 20 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT20

xAVG

100.161

POWER55

Barrel%

589.3

Avg EV

2387.1

Bat Spd

9076.1

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

5527.7

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 255 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

166

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

276

241

◀L

ISO

242

132

◀◀L

BABIP

160

253

▶▶R

33.7%

36.1%

◀L

BB%

7.9%

6.0%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2019

Service 3.918 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	18	ROK	AZL Mariners	—	94	82	23	6	2	2	9	24	0	0	1	280	352	476	827	195	362	26	10	353	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	121	108	17	6	0	0	6	35	6	1	1	157	242	213	455	56	230	29	5	217	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	381	333	81	20	1	11	34	103	11	2	1	243	333	408	742	165	317	27	9	332	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	120	110	28	4	0	5	10	32	0	0	0	255	317	427	744	173	315	27	8	331	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	282	257	70	17	0	14	13	74	11	0	1	272	335	502	836	230	329	26	5	367	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	86	80	21	5	0	5	4	23	2	0	0	263	314	512	826	250	308	27	5	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	125	108	22	11	2	3	12	42	3	0	0	204	301	426	727	222	292	34	10	317	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	252	225	45	12	1	5	20	78	6	0	0	200	283	329	612	129	280	31	8	279	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	15	13	0	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0		133		133			33	7	96	-81	-3	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.4
2019	23	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	345	306	70	9	0	28	20	118	18	1	0	229	314	533	847	304	261	34	6	368	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	151	131	18	4	0	3	13	73	7	0	0	137	252	237	488	99	273	48	9	235	47	-10	+0	+2	+5	+3	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	123	108	31	9	1	11	11	35	3	1	0	287	369	694	1.063	407	317	28	9	447	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	123	106	23	8	1	2	12	29	3	1	0	217	314	368	682	151	273	24	10	305	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	248	225	64	11	1	16	18	62	4	0	0	284	348	556	904	271	324	25	7	392	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	155	139	17	7	0	3	12	53	2	1	0	122	203	237	440	115	167	34	8	203	24	-14	+0	+6	+5	+3	0.0
2024	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	118	105	25	5	1	8	12	27	1	0	0	238	322	533	855	295	243	23	10	371	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	100	91	20	8	0	5	5	37	4	0	0	220	290	473	763	253	306	37	5	334	107	+1	+0	+6	+5	+2	1.4
2025	29	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	185	164	37	7	1	10	19	53	1	1	1	226	310	463	773	238	265	29	10	338	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	73	69	21	4	0	1	2	24	2	0	0	304	342	406	748	101	455	33	3	336	114	+1	+0	+0	+3	+2	0.6
2026	30	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	95	88	21	3	0	7	6	31	1	1	0	239	295	511	806	273	280	33	6	350	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	494	443	76	23	0	12	33	192	16	1	0	172	254	305	559	133	267	39	7	256	59	-24	+0	+14	+24	+11	2.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	94	85	15	4	1	1	6	35	0	0	1	176	231	282	513	106	268	37	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	121	110	13	4	0	0	4	50	6	1	1	118	192	155	346	36	209	41	3	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	381	344	66	18	1	8	23	140	11	2	1	192	265	320	584	128	284	37	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	120	114	24	4	0	4	6	40	0	0	0	211	250	351	601	140	281	33	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	—	282	262	53	12	0	11	8	109	11	0	1	202	256	374	630	172	292	39	3	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	125	112	18	8	2	3	8	53	3	0	0	161	236	348	584	187	251	42	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	252	233	38	10	1	4	12	97	6	0	0	163	223	266	489	103	253	38	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	15	14	0	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0		67		67			33	0	49	-81	-3	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.4
2019	23	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	345	312	57	7	0	24	14	149	18	1	0	183	259	436	695	253	230	43	4	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	151	132	18	4	0	3	12	73	7	0	0	136	245	235	480	98	273	48	8	237	47	-10	+0	+2	+5	+3	0.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	123	112	25	7	1	8	7	43	3	1	0	223	287	518	805	295	251	35	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	123	110	20	7	1	1	8	36	3	1	0	182	256	291	547	109	240	29	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	248	231	51	9	1	9	12	74	4	0	0	221	271	385	657	165	274	30	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	155	139	17	7	0	3	12	53	2	1	0	122	203	237	440	115	167	34	8	204	24	-14	+0	+6	+5	+3	0.0
2024	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	118	109	20	4	1	5	8	32	1	0	0	183	246	376	622	193	208	27	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	100	91	20	8	0	5	5	37	4	0	0	220	290	473	763	253	306	37	5	327	107	+1	+0	+6	+5	+2	1.4
2025	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	185	171	28	5	1	6	12	65	1	1	1	164	223	310	533	146	217	35	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	73	69	21	4	0	1	2	24	2	0	0	304	342	406	748	101	455	33	3	336	114	+1	+0	+0	+3	+2	0.6
2026	30	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	95	90	15	2	0	4	4	37	1	1	0	167	211	322	533	156	222	39	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	94	85	15	4	1	1	6	35	0	0	1	176	231	282	513	106	275	37	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	—	94	82	23	6	2	2	9	24	0	0	1	280	352	476	827	195	362	26	10	353	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	121	110	13	4	0	0	4	50	6	1	1	118	192	155	346	36	213	41	3	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	—	121	108	17	6	0	0	6	35	6	1	1	157	242	213	455	56	230	29	5	217	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	381	344	66	18	1	8	23	140	11	2	1	192	265	320	584	128	293	37	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	—	381	333	81	20	1	11	34	103	11	2	1	243	333	408	742	165	317	27	9	332	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	488	457	94	19	0	19	17	181	13	0	1	206	255	372	627	166	291	37	3	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	488	447	119	26	0	24	27	129	13	0	1	266	326	485	812	219	322	26	6	357	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	377	345	55	18	2	7	20	150	9	0	0	159	225	284	509	125	251	40	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	377	333	67	23	3	8	32	120	9	0	0	201	289	360	649	159	284	32	8	291	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	360	326	57	7	0	24	14	154	19	1	0	175	251	417	668	242	221	43	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	360	319	70	9	0	28	21	123	19	1	0	219	306	511	817	292	249	34	6	356	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	274	244	43	11	1	11	19	116	10	1	0	176	264	365	628	189	271	42	7	275	72	-9	+0	+2	+5	+6	0.4
2021	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	274	239	49	13	1	14	24	108	10	1	0	205	304	444	748	238	297	39	9	330	72	-9	+0	+2	+5	+6	0.4
2022	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	123	110	20	7	1	1	8	36	3	1	0	182	256	291	547	109	253	29	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	123	106	23	8	1	2	12	29	3	1	0	217	314	368	682	151	273	24	10	305	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	248	231	51	9	1	9	12	74	4	0	0	221	271	385	657	165	282	30	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	248	225	64	11	1	16	18	62	4	0	0	284	348	556	904	271	324	25	7	392	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	273	248	37	11	1	8	20	85	3	1	0	149	221	298	520	149	186	31	7	233	44	-18	+0	+6	+5	+6	-0.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	273	244	42	12	1	11	24	80	3	1	0	172	255	365	619	193	201	29	9	275	44	-18	+0	+6	+5	+6	-0.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	285	262	48	13	1	11	17	102	5	1	1	183	246	366	613	183	247	36	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	285	255	57	15	1	15	24	90	5	1	1	224	303	467	769	243	278	32	8	337	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	168	159	36	6	0	5	6	61	3	1	0	226	268	358	626	132	333	36	4	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	168	157	42	7	0	8	8	55	3	1	0	268	315	465	780	197	362	33	5	344	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	94	88	15	4	1	1	6	35	0	0	1	170	231	273	503	102	268	37	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	121	110	13	4	0	0	4	50	6	1	1	118	192	155	346	36	209	41	3	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	381	344	66	18	1	8	23	140	11	2	1	192	265	320	584	128	284	37	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	488	455	94	19	0	19	17	181	13	0	1	207	255	374	628	167	289	37	3	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	377	345	55	18	2	7	20	150	9	0	0	159	225	284	509	125	252	40	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	360	324	57	7	0	24	14	154	19	1	0	176	251	420	670	244	220	43	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	274	243	43	11	1	11	19	116	10	1	0	177	264	366	630	189	263	42	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	123	111	20	7	1	1	8	36	3	1	0	180	256	288	544	108	240	29	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	248	230	51	9	1	9	12	74	4	0	0	222	271	387	658	165	274	30	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	273	248	37	11	1	8	20	85	3	1	0	149	221	298	520	149	185	31	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	285	261	48	13	1	11	17	102	5	1	1	184	246	368	614	184	248	36	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	168	157	36	6	0	5	6	61	3	1	0	229	268	363	631	134	323	36	4	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	273	248	37	11	1	8	20	85	3	1	0	149	221	298	520	149	185	31	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	285	261	48	13	1	11	17	102	5	1	1	184	246	368	614	184	248	36	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	168	157	36	6	0	5	6	61	3	1	0	229	268	363	631	134	323	36	4	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIN	10%	218	199	41	8	1	8	14	65	3	2	0	207	269	372	641	165	262	30	6	285	79	-6	+0	+2	+4	+5	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIN	10%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	207	270	373	642	166	262	29	7	285	79	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	33%	116	106	21	4	0	4	7	35	2	0	0	202	263	359	622	158	257	30	6	277	73	-4	+0	-2	+2	+3	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	33%	38	35	6	1	0	1	2	11	1	0	0	202	263	360	623	158	257	29	5	277	73	-1	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	532	478	82	24	0	13	35	203	17	1	0	172	253	303	556	132	262	38	7	257	62	-25	+0	+13	+25	+12	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	100	29	0	16	43	248	21	1	0	171	253	303	556	132	262	38	7	257	62	-31	+0	+16	+31	+14	3.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3443	3150	581	136	9	113	182	1259	90	10	5	184	249	341	590	157	261	37	5	260	62	-31	+0	+13	+29	+16	2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	110	26	2	21	34	238	17	2	1	185	249	341	590	156	263	37	5	260	62	-27	+0	+11	+25	+14	2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 95 PAwOBA .340 → .236 (−104)K% 32.6% → 39.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.63%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	39.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.32%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.19%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.95%
Singles /BIP	19.30%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	16.41%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	3.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.28%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	8.27%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .340 → .236; ISO .273 → .173; BABIP .280 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 185 PAwOBA .331 → .235 (−96)K% 28.6% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.65%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	35.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.27%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.39%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.49%
Singles /BIP	17.12%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.973	×0.972	14.93%
Doubles /BIP	6.31%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.973	×0.972	4.85%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷0.944	×0.970	×0.973	×0.972	0.87%
Home runs /BIP	9.01%	÷1.070	×0.700	—	×0.972	5.73%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .331 → .235; ISO .238 → .156; BABIP .265 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 118 PAwOBA .357 → .271 (−86)K% 22.9% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.88%	÷1.014	×1.200	—	—	27.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.32%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.51%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.78%
Singles /BIP	14.10%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.987	×0.982	12.90%
Doubles /BIP	6.41%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.987	×0.982	5.19%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.987	×0.982	1.34%
Home runs /BIP	10.26%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .357 → .271; ISO .295 → .205; BABIP .243 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 248 PAwOBA .382 → .283 (−99)K% 25.0% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	29.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.26%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.91%
HBP% /PA	1.61%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.50%
Singles /BIP	22.09%	÷1.006	×0.930	×0.986	×0.992	19.97%
Doubles /BIP	6.75%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.986	×0.992	5.37%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷1.003	×0.970	×0.986	×0.992	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	9.82%	÷1.137	×0.700	—	×0.992	6.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .382 → .283; ISO .271 → .173; BABIP .324 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANashville Sounds · 123 PAwOBA .302 → .247 (−55)K% 23.6% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.58%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	29.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.76%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.79%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.30%
Singles /BIP	15.58%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.976	×1.003	14.24%
Doubles /BIP	10.39%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.976	×1.003	8.86%
Triples /BIP	1.30%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.976	×1.003	1.07%
Home runs /BIP	2.60%	÷0.946	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.93%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .302 → .247; ISO .151 → .120; BABIP .273 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 123 PAwOBA .435 → .322 (−114)K% 28.5% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.46%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	35.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.13%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.63%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.33%
Singles /BIP	13.70%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	12.19%
Doubles /BIP	12.33%	÷1.039	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	9.53%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×1.018	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	15.07%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.018	10.73%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .435 → .322; ISO .407 → .285; BABIP .317 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 345 PAwOBA .358 → .295 (−63)K% 34.2% → 43.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.20%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	43.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.80%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×1.048	4.00%
HBP% /PA	5.22%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	5.14%
Singles /BIP	17.55%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	15.66%
Doubles /BIP	4.79%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	4.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.89%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×1.048	14.58%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .358 → .295; ISO .304 → .257; BABIP .261 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMississippi Braves · 252 PAwOBA .269 → .220 (−49)K% 31.0% → 38.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.95%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	38.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.14%	÷1.037	×0.680	—	×1.027	4.81%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	2.05%
Singles /BIP	18.37%	÷0.993	×0.920	×0.965	×1.027	16.87%
Doubles /BIP	8.16%	÷1.013	×0.910	×0.965	×1.027	7.27%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.110	×0.880	×0.965	×1.027	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	3.40%	÷0.897	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.12%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 122, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .269 → .220; ISO .129 → .109; BABIP .280 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	0.8	530	14	1	181	257	321	+9	+10	0.1	0.1
/162	664	17	1	+11.9	+12.1	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Jackson (OGILVIE)	31	20	55	50	40	205/267/369	163	262	5	1	30%	6%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	38	208/269/350	142	268	18	6	30%	5%	74	-0.5	213/278/331	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	73	-0.6	163/234/229	66	238	8	0	33%	5%	34	-0.7
✕Eric Haase 2024 · MLB	31	44→42	50→65	48→40	42	227/277/378	151	289	19	6	28%	6%	83	+0.1	224/281/371	147	317	19	5	34%	7%	83	+0.1	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Brett Hayes 2014 · MLB	30	39	51→45	49→40	36	209/244/368	160	264	20	5	30%	4%	69	-0.9	189/226/320	131	243	16	6	29%	4%	51	-2.3	146/187/222	76	202	8	0	32%	4%	11	-1.6
✕Anthony Recker 2016 · MLB	32	37→47	52→50	45	42	200/266/362	162	268	21	5	33%	8%	76	-0.4	205/275/343	138	277	15	5	30%	8%	75	-0.5	193/262/327	134	259	15	2	30%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Dustin Garneau 2018 · MLB	30	39→38	51→50	44→45	45	208/269/367	159	244	19	4	24%	7%	78	-0.3	204/277/355	151	257	17	4	27%	7%	78	-0.3	178/254/344	166	215	21	0	29%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	41→40	55→65	47→45	41	221/283/406	185	271	23	7	28%	6%	93	+0.8	203/267/337	134	257	16	6	27%	6%	71	-0.8	166/234/261	95	210	12	0	27%	7%	39	-1.0
✕Brandon Larson 2007 · MLB	31	43→40	50	44→45	41	223/276/375	152	289	19	6	30%	6%	82	+0.0	221/266/362	141	276	17	8	26%	5%	75	-0.5	199/230/325	126	230	17	4	23%	4%	51	-0.8
✕Cody Ransom 2008 · MLB	32	37→39	51→55	49→50	42	199/261/355	156	255	20	13	30%	7%	72	-0.7	209/271/376	167	263	20	10	28%	7%	80	-0.1	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Mike Rivera 2008 · MLB	31	38	53→55	41→45	40	208/247/372	164	228	23	7	22%	4%	71	-0.8	214/276/347	133	262	15	8	24%	7%	76	-0.4	183/258/282	99	248	9	4	29%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Brooks Conrad 2011 · MLB	31	42→43	52→55	53→50	44	221/281/388	168	277	20	12	28%	7%	87	+0.4	228/294/417	189	303	24	9	32%	8%	99	+1.3	202/264/392	189	261	26	2	33%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	33	49→50	45→40	46	182/253/322	139	222	19	4	28%	8%	62	-1.4	193/264/316	123	253	15	4	29%	8%	65	-1.2	170/246/277	106	224	13	0	30%	8%	47	-1.1
✕Nick Dini 2023 · AAA	30	41	50	49→50	45	218/279/363	146	253	19	7	23%	6%	81	-0.1	203/291/334	131	265	15	11	28%	9%	79	-0.2	151/269/258	107	199	13	12	30%	11%	54	-0.9
✕Aramis Garcia 2024 · MLB	31	38→42	49→50	47→45	35	203/245/340	137	266	18	7	31%	4%	63	-1.4	186/247/317	131	264	17	7	35%	6%	59	-1.7	165/235/287	122	232	17	5	36%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Jason Vosler 2024 · MLB	30	38→44	52→55	48→40	44	205/267/365	160	257	21	5	29%	7%	77	-0.3	221/277/382	161	278	19	6	27%	6%	84	+0.2	222/275/386	164	273	20	4	26%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Chad Wallach 2024 · MLB	32	38→48	48→50	46→40	43	200/265/336	136	268	17	5	31%	7%	70	-0.9	201/264/329	128	278	15	5	32%	7%	67	-1.1	183/248/298	114	255	14	2	32%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Francisco Peña 2021 · MLB	31	43→48	51→55	48→40	41	225/263/384	158	261	20	7	23%	4%	79	-0.2	204/257/357	153	239	21	6	25%	5%	72	-0.7	174/227/317	143	193	22	1	25%	5%	51	-1.7
✕Luke Montz 2014 · MLB	31	35→44	57→55	41→40	44	203/271/398	196	247	26	5	30%	8%	86	+0.3	198/268/368	170	272	21	6	34%	8%	78	-0.3	128/202/252	124	189	12	3	38%	8%	26	-1.3
✕Lorenzo Quintana 2021 · AAA	32	42	52→50	45	38	224/267/387	163	268	20	9	25%	4%	82	-0.0	228/275/367	139	283	15	5	25%	5%	80	-0.2	222/269/358	136	272	15	2	24%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Ryan Casteel 2022 · AAA	31	39→49	50→55	47→40	39	206/260/354	148	280	19	4	33%	6%	72	-0.7	200/255/356	156	271	21	5	33%	6%	70	-0.8	164/225/339	176	190	26	0	31%	6%	53	-0.9

Alex Jackson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps