Alex Jackson — OGILVIE

Alex JacksonC St. Paul Saints

Age 30 R/R 6'1" / 238 lbs AAA BB +3% Svc 3.209 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.6 · 2026

wRC+†vL 6059vR 35

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .250 / .366

PA313

HR13

K%33

BB%7

xwOBA.270

Barrel%14.8%

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

55→55

SPD

50→50

EYE

45↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2019

Service 3.209 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.5M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	AZL Mariners	94	85	15	4	1	1	6	35	0	0	1	.176	.231	.282	.513	.106	.275	37	6	.237	40	-6	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
2015	19	A	Clinton LumberKings	121	110	13	4	0	0	4	47	6	1	1	.118	.192	.155	.346	.036	.203	39	3	.164	-16	-16	-0	+0	+2	+3	-1.1
2016	20	A	Clinton LumberKings	381	344	69	20	1	9	23	130	11	2	1	.201	.272	.343	.616	.142	.290	34	6	.264	60	-17	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.0
2017	21	A+	3 teams	488	458	91	18	0	19	16	186	13	0	1	.199	.246	.362	.609	.164	.283	38	3	.268	63	-20	-0	+0	+9	+14	0.2
2018	22	AA	2 teams	377	345	53	17	2	7	20	156	9	0	0	.154	.219	.275	.495	.122	.249	41	5	.223	29	-30	+0	+0	+7	+11	-1.3
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	360	326	54	6	0	24	14	158	19	1	0	.166	.242	.405	.647	.239	.207	44	4	.274	68	-13	+0	+1	+6	+10	0.4
2021	25	MLB	2 teams	274	243	43	11	1	12	20	116	10	1	0	.177	.267	.379	.646	.202	.267	42	7	.280	73	-8	+0	+2	+5	+8	0.7
2022	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	123	110	21	7	1	2	8	36	3	1	0	.191	.264	.327	.592	.136	.257	29	7	.250	50	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	248	231	53	9	1	11	12	74	4	0	0	.229	.279	.420	.699	.190	.286	30	5	.300	88	-3	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.8
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	273	248	38	11	1	9	20	85	3	1	0	.153	.225	.315	.540	.161	.187	31	7	.240	42	-18	+0	+6	+5	+8	0.1
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	285	262	49	12	1	12	17	102	5	1	1	.187	.250	.378	.628	.191	.248	36	6	.278	71	-9	-0	+6	+5	+8	0.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	30	AAA	St. Paul Saints	41	39	6	1	0	2	2	16	0	0	0	.154	.195	.333	.528	.179	.190	39	5	.209	18	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
ROS	30	MLB	MIN	272	249	45	10	1	11	18	90	3	2	0	.181	.244	.361	.606	.181	.229	33	7	.271	65	-11	+0	+5	+5	+8	0.8
TOT	30	MLB	MIN	313	288	51	11	1	13	20	106	3	2	0	.177	.238	.358	.596	.181	.224	34	6	.263	59	-14	+0	+5	+6	+9	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB 20%	MIN	289	264	48	10	1	12	19	87	4	0	0	.182	.247	.364	.611	.182	.217	30	7	.271	65	-11	+0	+3	+5	+8	0.5
2028	32	MLB 33%	MIN	262	240	43	9	1	10	17	80	3	0	0	.179	.242	.350	.592	.171	.215	31	6	.266	62	-11	+0	+2	+5	+7	0.3
2029	33	MLB 43%	MIN	227	207	37	8	1	9	15	71	3	0	0	.179	.244	.357	.602	.179	.213	31	7	.260	57	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2030	34	MLB 52%	MIN	182	166	29	6	1	7	12	58	2	0	0	.175	.239	.349	.588	.175	.210	32	7	.253	52	-10	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4256	3888	701	162	14	155	241	1511	98	10	5	.180	.246	.349	.595	.168	.243	36	6	.261	58	-204	+0	+24	+76	+121	1.7
/ 162G	—			650	594	108	25	2	24	37	231	15	2	1	.182	.248	.352	.600	.170	.246	36	6	.261	58	-31	+0	+4	+12	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	AZL Mariners	94	82	23	6	2	2	9	24	0	0	1	.280	.352	.476	.827	.195	.362	26	10	.353	128	+3	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2015	19	A	Clinton LumberKings	121	108	17	6	0	0	6	35	6	1	1	.157	.242	.213	.455	.056	.230	29	5	.217	24	-10	-0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2016	20	A	Clinton LumberKings	381	333	81	20	1	11	34	103	11	2	1	.243	.333	.408	.742	.165	.317	27	9	.332	112	+5	+0	—	—	+11	1.6
2017	21	AA	Mississippi Braves	120	110	28	4	0	5	10	32	0	0	0	.255	.317	.427	.744	.173	.315	27	8	.331	111	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2017	21	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	282	257	70	17	0	14	13	74	11	0	1	.272	.335	.502	.836	.230	.329	26	5	.367	139	+12	-0	—	—	+8	2.0
2017	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	86	80	21	5	0	5	4	23	2	0	0	.263	.314	.512	.826	.250	.308	27	5	.361	134	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2018	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	125	108	22	11	2	3	12	42	3	0	0	.204	.301	.426	.727	.222	.292	34	10	.317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2018	22	AA	Mississippi Braves	252	225	45	12	1	5	20	78	6	0	0	.200	.283	.329	.612	.129	.280	31	8	.279	71	-8	+0	—	—	+7	-0.1
2019	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	15	13	0	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	.000	.133	.000	.133	.000	.000	33	7	.096	-69	-3	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.5
2019	23	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	345	306	70	9	0	28	20	118	18	1	0	.229	.314	.533	.847	.304	.261	34	6	.368	140	+15	+0	—	—	+10	2.6
2021	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	151	131	18	4	0	3	13	73	7	0	0	.137	.252	.237	.488	.099	.273	48	9	.235	38	-11	+0	+2	+5	+4	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	123	108	31	9	1	11	11	35	3	1	0	.287	.369	.694	1.063	.407	.317	28	9	.447	200	+14	+0	—	—	+3	1.8
2022	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	123	106	23	8	1	2	12	29	3	1	0	.217	.314	.368	.682	.151	.273	24	10	.305	91	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	248	225	64	11	1	16	18	62	4	0	0	.284	.348	.556	.904	.271	.324	25	7	.392	158	+16	+0	—	—	+7	2.4
2024	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	155	139	17	7	0	3	12	53	2	1	0	.122	.203	.237	.440	.115	.167	34	8	.203	13	-15	+0	+6	+5	+4	0.0
2024	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	118	105	25	5	1	8	12	27	1	0	0	.238	.322	.533	.855	.295	.243	23	10	.371	142	+6	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	100	91	20	8	0	5	5	37	4	0	0	.220	.290	.473	.763	.253	.306	37	5	.334	114	+2	+0	+6	+5	+3	1.5
2025	29	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	185	164	37	7	1	10	19	53	1	1	1	.226	.310	.463	.773	.238	.265	29	10	.338	117	+4	-0	—	—	+5	0.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			421	374	55	19	0	11	31	168	14	1	0	.147	.239	.286	.525	.139	.224	40	7	.242	43	-27	+0	+14	+21	+12	2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Jackson (OGILVIE)	30	20	55	50	40	.184/.250/.366	.182	.232	13	2	33%	7%	68	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brett Hayes 2014 · MLB	30	39	51→45	49→40	37	.211/.251/.370	.159	.270	19	5	30%	5%	68	-0.5	.193/.230/.327	.134	.249	16	6	29%	4%	47	-1.9	.153/.195/.232	.080	.211	9	0	32%	4%	5	-1.5
✕Dustin Garneau 2018 · MLB	30	39→38	51→50	45	45	.210/.269/.367	.157	.244	19	4	23%	7%	76	+0.0	.207/.279/.360	.153	.260	17	4	27%	7%	78	+0.2	.184/.263/.355	.171	.225	21	0	29%	7%	68	-0.2
✕J.P. Arencibia 2016 · MLB	30	34→44	57→60	42→30	33	.202/.236/.385	.182	.249	27	2	32%	3%	66	-0.6	.205/.236/.358	.153	.273	21	4	33%	3%	59	-1.1	.185/.209/.309	.124	.248	18	1	34%	2%	30	-1.9
✕Nick Dini 2023 · AAA	30	42	53→50	49→50	44	.226/.284/.389	.163	.259	22	7	23%	6%	88	+0.9	.208/.294/.352	.144	.265	18	11	28%	9%	82	+0.5	.160/.281/.285	.124	.207	16	12	30%	12%	59	-0.5
✕Brian O'Keefe 2023 · AAA	30	42	51→55	45→40	40	.218/.273/.375	.158	.294	20	5	33%	6%	79	+0.3	.204/.265/.371	.167	.260	21	4	30%	7%	75	-0.0	.182/.248/.350	.167	.219	22	2	29%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Donnie Murphy 2013 · MLB	30	41	56→60	48→45	44	.222/.285/.417	.195	.262	24	5	26%	6%	95	+1.4	.211/.276/.370	.159	.265	20	6	28%	6%	79	+0.3	.195/.262/.332	.137	.246	17	4	28%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	34	49→50	45→40	46	.185/.257/.324	.139	.228	18	4	28%	8%	59	-1.1	.194/.268/.328	.134	.254	17	4	30%	8%	65	-0.7	.175/.254/.294	.120	.232	15	0	31%	8%	49	-0.8
✕Luke Montz 2013 · AAA	30	37→45	57→55	43→40	46	.211/.279/.402	.191	.249	26	5	28%	8%	89	+1.0	.204/.273/.396	.192	.263	25	5	32%	8%	85	+0.7	.153/.231/.319	.166	.214	20	1	38%	8%	46	-0.6
✕Francisco Peña 2021 · MLB	31	43	51→55	48→40	41	.227/.265/.384	.157	.265	20	6	23%	5%	78	+0.2	.206/.259/.373	.167	.242	24	5	26%	5%	73	-0.1	.176/.233/.336	.160	.195	26	1	27%	5%	53	-1.1
✕Robel García 2022 · MLB	29	36	53→50	44→40	39	.192/.260/.357	.164	.283	22	5	39%	8%	69	-0.4	.220/.285/.400	.180	.319	23	6	36%	8%	91	+1.1	.237/.306/.488	.251	.326	37	0	38%	9%	121	+0.9
✕Brandon Waring 2014 · AAA	28	35→41	54→55	45→40	37	.194/.259/.369	.175	.277	23	2	38%	6%	72	-0.2	.189/.254/.341	.152	.324	18	5	45%	6%	63	-0.9	.157/.225/.298	.141	.292	16	2	49%	6%	37	-1.8
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	41→44	51→55	49→50	38	.216/.260/.371	.155	.290	19	10	32%	6%	72	-0.2	.208/.257/.339	.131	.293	15	11	33%	6%	63	-0.9	.195/.247/.313	.118	.278	13	8	34%	5%	48	-1.2
✕Jack Mayfield 2021 · MLB	30	42→45	52→55	46→50	41	.223/.270/.391	.168	.262	21	7	24%	5%	82	+0.5	.218/.264/.370	.152	.259	18	10	23%	5%	73	-0.1	.207/.252/.352	.145	.244	17	10	23%	4%	61	-0.5
✕Michael Coleman 2006 · AA	30	45→37	53→55	49→45	43	.233/.293/.407	.175	.302	22	6	30%	7%	95	+1.4	.216/.268/.378	.162	.265	19	6	26%	6%	77	+0.1	.201/.251/.364	.163	.238	20	5	25%	5%	65	-0.6
✕Ryan Casteel 2022 · AAA	31	40→47	54→55	47→40	39	.214/.268/.387	.173	.291	23	4	34%	6%	80	+0.4	.209/.265/.388	.179	.274	25	5	33%	6%	79	+0.3	.179/.242/.390	.210	.202	32	0	31%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Joe Hudson 2023 · MLB	32	37	50→45	48→40	43	.198/.263/.343	.145	.268	19	6	33%	8%	66	-0.6	.201/.289/.344	.143	.302	18	9	37%	10%	79	+0.3	.184/.295/.316	.132	.278	17	10	37%	11%	71	-0.1
✕Mike Rivera 2008 · MLB	31	40	54→55	41→45	41	.217/.258/.387	.170	.237	24	7	22%	4%	76	+0.0	.218/.281/.357	.139	.266	16	8	24%	7%	77	+0.1	.190/.272/.296	.105	.262	10	4	29%	8%	54	-0.5
✕Brandon Hicks 2015 · MLB	29	36→40	50	46→50	41	.190/.266/.341	.151	.284	18	7	38%	8%	68	-0.5	.188/.260/.304	.116	.308	13	8	40%	8%	55	-1.4	.166/.236/.251	.085	.293	9	8	44%	8%	28	-1.3
✕Matt Spring 2015 · AAA	30	36	51→50	43→45	34	.193/.248/.350	.157	.293	19	4	40%	6%	62	-0.9	.196/.252/.332	.136	.300	15	5	38%	6%	59	-1.1	.150/.208/.256	.107	.231	13	0	40%	7%	17	-1.5
✕Kevin Richardson 2011 · AAA	30	37	49→50	48→40	31	.191/.236/.331	.140	.301	18	5	42%	5%	52	-1.6	.210/.261/.350	.140	.339	16	6	41%	5%	67	-0.5	.205/.263/.335	.130	.337	15	0	41%	6%	60	-0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)