Alex Jackson — OGILVIE

Alex JacksonC St. Paul Saints

Age 30 R/R 6'1" / 238 lbs MLB Svc 3.209 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION151 act + 100 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 6961vR 42

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .271 / .382

PA100

HR4

K%31

BB%6

BABIP260

ISO175

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 20 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT20

Whiff%

1315.2%

xwOBA

100.237

POWER55

Barrel%

619.8

Avg EV

2787.4

Bat Spd

9076.1

EYE40

Chase%

5730.3%

SPEED50

Sprint

5227.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 255 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

166

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

276

241

◀L

ISO

242

132

◀◀L

BABIP

160

253

▶▶R

33.7%

36.1%

◀L

BB%

7.9%

6.0%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2019

Service 3.209 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.6M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.6M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	AZL Mariners	—	94	85	15	4	1	1	6	35	0	0	1	176	231	282	513	106	275	37	6	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	AZL Mariners	—	94	82	23	6	2	2	9	24	0	0	1	280	352	476	827	195	362	26	10	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	121	110	12	4	0	0	4	52	6	1	1	109	183	145	329	36	203	43	3	154	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	121	108	17	6	0	0	6	35	6	1	1	157	242	213	455	56	230	29	5	217	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	381	345	67	22	1	8	22	139	11	2	1	194	265	333	598	139	295	36	6	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	381	333	81	20	1	11	34	103	11	2	1	243	333	408	742	165	317	27	9	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	3 teams	—	488	458	90	16	0	20	16	191	13	0	1	197	244	362	607	166	282	39	3	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	3 teams	—	488	447	119	26	0	24	27	129	13	0	1	266	326	485	812	219	322	26	6	357	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	2 teams	—	377	345	53	16	2	8	20	160	9	0	0	154	219	281	500	128	250	42	5	220	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	2 teams	—	377	333	67	23	3	8	32	120	9	0	0	201	289	360	649	159	284	32	8	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	—	360	326	54	6	0	25	14	163	19	1	0	166	242	414	656	248	209	45	4	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	—	360	319	70	9	0	28	21	123	19	1	0	219	306	511	817	292	249	34	6	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	2 teams	—	274	243	43	10	1	12	20	117	10	1	0	177	267	374	642	198	270	43	7	278	71	-9	+0	+2	+5	+8	0.6
2021	25	MLB	2 teams	—	274	239	49	13	1	14	24	108	10	1	0	205	304	444	748	238	297	39	9	330	111	+3	+0	+2	+5	+8	1.9
2022	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	123	110	21	7	1	2	8	37	3	1	0	191	264	327	592	136	260	30	7	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	123	106	23	8	1	2	12	29	3	1	0	217	314	368	682	151	273	24	10	305	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	248	231	51	8	1	10	12	73	4	0	0	221	271	394	665	173	275	29	5	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	248	225	64	11	1	16	18	62	4	0	0	284	348	556	904	271	324	25	7	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	—	273	248	38	11	1	9	20	85	3	1	0	153	225	315	540	161	187	31	7	242	43	-18	+0	+6	+5	+8	0.1
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	—	273	244	42	12	1	11	24	80	3	1	0	172	255	365	619	193	201	29	9	275	69	-10	+0	+6	+5	+8	0.9
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	285	263	49	13	1	12	16	103	5	1	1	186	246	380	627	194	248	36	6	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	285	255	57	15	1	15	24	90	5	1	1	224	303	467	769	243	278	32	8	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	AAA	MIN	—	151	144	32	5	0	6	4	53	3	1	0	222	258	382	640	160	306	35	3	286	77	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
YTD	30	AAA	MIN	—	151	142	37	6	0	8	6	47	3	1	0	261	305	472	776	211	333	31	4	341	119	+3	+0	+0	+3	+4	1.1
ROS	30	AAA	MIN	100%	100	91	19	4	0	4	6	31	2	1	0	207	271	382	653	175	266	31	6	286	77	-3	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.4
ROS	30	MLB	MIN	100%	101	92	19	4	0	4	6	31	2	1	0	207	270	380	650	174	266	31	6	276	69	-4	+0	+2	+2	+3	0.3
FULL	30	AAA	MIN	—	252	236	51	9	0	10	10	84	5	2	0	216	263	381	644	165	287	33	4	282	74	-7	+0	+2	+4	+7	0.6
TOT	30	AAA	MIN	—	251	235	51	9	0	10	10	84	5	2	0	216	263	382	645	165	287	33	4	286	77	-7	+0	+1	+4	+7	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	MIN	82%	291	268	55	11	1	11	17	92	4	2	0	205	263	377	640	172	265	32	6	285	76	-8	+0	+2	+5	+8	0.8
2028	32	MLB	MIN	82%	264	243	50	10	1	10	15	84	4	1	0	206	263	379	642	173	262	32	6	279	72	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.5
2029	33	MLB	MIN	82%	228	210	42	8	1	8	13	74	3	1	0	200	257	362	619	162	257	32	6	272	67	-9	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.1
2027	31	MLB	MIN	82%	239	219	46	9	1	9	14	75	4	1	0	210	270	384	654	174	266	31	6	274	68	-9	+0	+1	+4	+7	0.4
2028	32	MLB	MIN	82%	216	198	41	8	1	8	13	69	3	1	0	207	266	379	645	172	262	32	6	269	64	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2029	33	MLB	MIN	82%	187	171	35	7	1	7	11	61	3	1	0	205	265	380	645	175	257	33	6	262	59	-9	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1164	1054	196	47	3	39	75	404	26	5	0	186	257	347	604	161	255	35	6	260	57	-57	+1	+17	+35	+33	2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	110	26	2	22	42	226	15	3	0	187	259	350	609	163	256	35	6	260	57	-32	+1	+9	+19	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	3907	3576	659	150	12	140	209	1436	96	13	5	184	248	350	599	166	257	37	5	262	59	-182	+1	+17	+70	+111	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	109	25	2	23	35	239	16	2	1	183	248	348	596	165	256	37	5	262	59	-30	+0	+3	+12	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	AZL Mariners	—	94	82	23	6	2	2	9	24	0	0	1	280	352	476	827	195	362	26	10	353	128	+3	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2015	19	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	121	108	17	6	0	0	6	35	6	1	1	157	242	213	455	56	230	29	5	217	24	-10	-0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2016	20	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	381	333	81	20	1	11	34	103	11	2	1	243	333	408	742	165	317	27	9	332	112	+5	+0	—	—	+11	1.6
2017	21	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	120	110	28	4	0	5	10	32	0	0	0	255	317	427	744	173	315	27	8	331	111	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2017	21	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	282	257	70	17	0	14	13	74	11	0	1	272	335	502	836	230	329	26	5	367	139	+12	-0	—	—	+8	2.0
2017	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	86	80	21	5	0	5	4	23	2	0	0	263	314	512	826	250	308	27	5	361	134	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2018	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	125	108	22	11	2	3	12	42	3	0	0	204	301	426	727	222	292	34	10	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2018	22	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	252	225	45	12	1	5	20	78	6	0	0	200	283	329	612	129	280	31	8	279	71	-8	+0	—	—	+7	-0.1
2019	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	15	13	0	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0		133		133			33	7	96	-69	-3	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.5
2019	23	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	345	306	70	9	0	28	20	118	18	1	0	229	314	533	847	304	261	34	6	368	140	+15	+0	—	—	+10	2.6
2021	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	151	131	18	4	0	3	13	73	7	0	0	137	252	237	488	99	273	48	9	235	38	-11	+0	+2	+5	+4	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	123	108	31	9	1	11	11	35	3	1	0	287	369	694	1.063	407	317	28	9	447	200	+14	+0	—	—	+3	1.8
2022	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	123	106	23	8	1	2	12	29	3	1	0	217	314	368	682	151	273	24	10	305	91	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	248	225	64	11	1	16	18	62	4	0	0	284	348	556	904	271	324	25	7	392	158	+16	+0	—	—	+7	2.4
2024	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	155	139	17	7	0	3	12	53	2	1	0	122	203	237	440	115	167	34	8	203	13	-15	+0	+6	+5	+4	0.0
2024	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	118	105	25	5	1	8	12	27	1	0	0	238	322	533	855	295	243	23	10	371	142	+6	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	100	91	20	8	0	5	5	37	4	0	0	220	290	473	763	253	306	37	5	334	114	+2	+0	+6	+5	+3	1.5
2025	29	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	185	164	37	7	1	10	19	53	1	1	1	226	310	463	773	238	265	29	10	338	117	+4	-0	—	—	+5	0.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	421	374	55	19	0	11	31	168	14	1	0	147	239	286	525	139	224	40	7	242	43	-27	+0	+14	+21	+12	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Henry Blancolast yr '13 career totals — 14 seasons, 2,779 PA	14	2,779	65	5	221	284	359	+27	+49	8.6	9.6
	/162	664	16	1	221	284	359	+6.6	+11.7	2.1	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	1,220	40	5	192	257	351	+22	+17	0.8	1.2
	/162	664	22	3	192	257	351	+11.9	+9.2	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Jackson (OGILVIE)	30	20	55	50	40	216/263/382	165	287	10	2	33%	4%	77	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brett Hayes 2014 · MLB	30	39	51→45	49→40	36	211/248/371	161	271	19	5	31%	4%	67	-0.5	191/227/321	130	248	16	6	30%	4%	45	-2.1	151/193/229	78	208	8	0	31%	4%	3	-1.5
✕Dustin Garneau 2018 · MLB	30	38→37	49→50	44→45	44	201/262/348	147	241	17	4	25%	7%	67	-0.5	201/275/344	143	257	15	4	27%	7%	72	-0.2	171/262/347	177	214	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Nick Dini 2023 · AAA	30	42	52→50	49→50	44	224/282/384	160	260	22	7	24%	6%	85	+0.7	207/292/345	138	268	16	11	28%	9%	79	+0.3	157/276/271	115	204	15	12	29%	12%	54	-0.6
✕Cameron Rupp 2019 · MLB	30	40→48	55→60	48→30	42	215/279/397	183	294	23	3	35%	8%	88	+0.9	204/276/359	155	296	19	6	36%	8%	76	+0.1	154/240/282	128	225	16	0	37%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Brandon Larson 2006 · MLB	30	45→42	50	46→45	44	229/296/383	154	293	18	6	28%	7%	91	+1.1	226/275/382	156	289	20	6	28%	6%	81	+0.4	216/261/366	150	271	21	5	29%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	37	207/267/349	142	269	18	6	30%	4%	70	-0.3	215/276/333	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	69	-0.4	175/246/242	68	254	8	0	32%	6%	34	-0.6
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	33	49→50	45→40	46	184/255/323	140	226	18	4	28%	8%	58	-1.2	193/267/322	129	258	16	4	30%	8%	63	-0.8	168/248/282	114	227	14	0	32%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	42→48	52→55	43→45	47	220/295/386	166	285	21	6	30%	9%	92	+1.2	208/278/363	155	281	19	6	32%	8%	78	+0.2	196/276/340	144	260	18	3	31%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	42→43	53→55	49→40	45	223/288/393	170	274	22	6	27%	7%	90	+1.0	215/275/384	169	275	21	6	29%	7%	82	+0.5	205/266/377	172	258	22	4	30%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	47→45	42→30	44	215/272/352	137	271	14	5	26%	7%	72	-0.2	218/293/379	161	275	18	6	26%	9%	88	+0.9	197/307/365	169	234	18	0	24%	13%	90	+0.3
✕Francisco Peña 2021 · MLB	31	43→46	51→55	48→40	41	229/267/387	159	267	20	7	24%	5%	79	+0.3	210/260/392	182	238	26	6	25%	5%	79	+0.3	180/232/364	185	186	30	1	25%	4%	60	-0.8
✕Aramis Garcia 2022 · MLB	29	40→42	47→55	44→45	37	207/255/336	129	285	16	4	33%	5%	61	-1.0	197/239/324	127	269	16	7	33%	4%	51	-1.7	176/253/325	149	241	21	5	36%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Mike Rivera 2008 · MLB	31	39	54→55	41→45	41	213/255/381	168	234	23	7	22%	4%	73	-0.1	218/283/355	137	268	15	8	24%	7%	78	+0.2	192/275/296	104	262	10	4	28%	9%	55	-0.5
✕J.P. Arencibia 2016 · MLB	30	34→44	56→60	43→30	33	201/232/380	179	246	27	2	32%	3%	63	-0.8	201/232/341	140	270	19	5	33%	3%	52	-1.6	175/197/280	105	239	15	1	34%	1%	17	-2.5
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	42→40	55→65	47→45	41	223/287/406	183	274	23	7	28%	6%	93	+1.3	203/268/336	133	258	16	6	27%	6%	66	-0.6	166/235/261	96	210	12	0	27%	7%	32	-1.0
✕Brian O'Keefe 2023 · AAA	30	45	52→55	45→40	40	230/281/398	168	305	21	5	31%	6%	88	+0.9	205/264/366	161	262	19	4	29%	7%	72	-0.2	181/239/323	142	224	19	3	29%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Clint Coulter 2023 · AAA	30	42	52→50	43→40	40	221/279/389	168	272	21	5	27%	5%	85	+0.7	222/289/359	137	266	14	9	22%	6%	82	+0.5	204/282/322	119	241	11	9	20%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Niko Vasquez 2019 · AAA	30	46→41	51→50	47→45	41	237/289/396	159	302	19	10	28%	6%	91	+1.1	210/267/324	114	300	13	9	33%	6%	63	-0.9	175/237/256	81	255	12	4	34%	5%	31	-1.2
✕Erik Kratz 2010 · AAA	30	42→44	53→60	51→45	41	224/271/398	174	268	20	8	25%	5%	84	+0.6	224/285/385	161	267	18	5	23%	6%	87	+0.8	218/284/385	167	250	20	2	22%	6%	85	+0.4
✕Tom Murphy 2022 · MLB	31	44→34	55→60	47→45	50	232/317/414	182	298	24	4	30%	11%	108	+2.3	249/327/436	187	327	23	5	29%	10%	117	+2.9	292/341/547	255	363	32	0	28%	6%	150	+1.4