Lenyn Sosa

2B Toronto Blue Jays

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 3.093 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLBArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAA/INTL2 orgs	226	.333/.393/.647	15	3	162	—	.229/.270/.410
2024	24	MLBCWS	369	.254/.284/.359	8	3	77	-0.2
2025	25	INTLLeones del Ca…	118	.270/.314/.532	7	1	135	—
2025	25	MLBCWS	544	.264/.294/.434	22	2	101	1.2
2026	26	AAA/A/INTL2 orgs	132	.257/.364/.416	4	0	92	—	.161/.221/.236
2026	26	MLBTOR	117	.195/.209/.283	1	0	32	-0.6
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	238	.247/.281/.394	7	2	87	0.2
2028PROJ82% MLB	28	MLBTOR	238	.245/.279/.390	7	1	85	0.1
2029PROJ82% MLB	29	MLBTOR	235	.243/.276/.383	7	0	82	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.093First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.8M2028Arb-2$1M2029Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV61

Bat Spd57

xwOBA56

Barrel%51

Speed33

CompsJoel Guzman (age 27) · Alan Trejo (age 27) · Matt Duffy (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8987vR 79

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .281 / .394

PA238

HR7

K%23

BB%4

BABIP294

ISO138

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

650.263

POWER50

Barrel%

518.3

Avg EV

6189.9

Bat Spd

5772.0

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

3326.7

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 970 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

284

686

—

wRC+

104

◀◀L

wOBA

322

291

◀L

ISO

155

135

◀L

BABIP

332

295

◀L

21.1%

22.6%

◀L

BB%

2.5%

3.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.093 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2028	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	17	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	180	159	43	4	2	2	14	24	1	3	4	270	333	358	692	88	304	13	8	304	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	Great Falls Voyagers	—	291	276	81	13	3	4	7	36	4	2	2	293	321	406	726	112	322	12	2	319	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	536	501	126	35	2	7	27	102	3	6	6	251	294	371	665	120	301	19	5	295	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	121	117	25	5	0	1	2	28	2	0	1	214	240	282	522	68	273	23	2	236	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	353	334	97	19	1	10	14	77	2	3	4	290	322	443	765	153	349	22	4	336	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	36	35	4	1	0	1	1	12	0	0	0	114	139	229	367	114	136	33	3	163	-4	-4	+0	-0	+8	+1	0.4
2022	22	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	247	226	67	12	0	9	18	43	2	3	4	296	354	469	823	173	331	17	7	364	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	289	257	85	10	2	14	21	40	5	0	0	331	392	549	941	218	340	14	7	405	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	170	151	41	9	1	2	14	36	3	0	0	272	345	384	729	113	342	21	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	173	164	33	6	0	6	5	40	0	0	1	201	225	348	572	146	227	23	3	247	49	-10	-0	-1	+2	+4	-0.6
2023	23	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	308	288	78	17	0	17	18	75	0	0	1	271	314	507	821	236	310	24	6	356	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	369	351	89	13	0	8	12	77	3	3	1	254	284	359	643	105	303	21	3	286	77	-10	+0	-3	+2	+8	-0.2
2024	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	113	102	28	8	0	6	9	20	0	2	1	275	333	529	863	255	286	18	8	369	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	113	102	40	9	1	9	8	23	3	1	0	392	451	765	1.216	373	443	20	7	519	238	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	544	518	137	20	1	22	18	127	4	2	1	264	294	434	729	170	309	23	3	319	101	+1	+0	-3	+2	+12	1.2
2025	25	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	118	111	30	8	0	7	5	16	2	1	0	270	314	532	845	261	261	14	4	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	117	113	22	7	0	1	1	25	1	0	0	195	209	283	492	88	239	21	1	215	32	-10	+0	+1	+1	+3	-0.6
2026	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	68	63	16	3	0	2	5	17	0	0	2	254	309	397	706	143	318	25	7	316	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	18	16	2	2	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	125	222	250	472	125	200	33	6	222	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	46	34	11	1	0	2	11	10	1	0	0	324	500	529	1.029	206	409	22	24	459	196	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1239	1181	285	47	1	38	37	281	8	5	3	241	269	379	649	138	285	23	3	285	79	-31	-0	-6	+15	+27	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	17	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	180	164	38	3	2	2	9	35	1	3	4	232	276	311	587	79	263	19	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	—	291	279	63	9	2	3	4	52	4	2	2	226	247	305	552	79	260	18	1	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	536	510	106	26	2	7	18	139	3	6	6	208	239	308	547	100	264	26	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	121	118	21	4	0	1	1	34	2	0	1	178	198	237	436	59	241	28	1	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	353	339	81	15	1	8	10	107	2	3	4	239	265	360	625	121	318	30	3	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	36	35	4	1	0	1	1	12	0	0	0	114	139	229	367	114	136	33	3	162	-4	-4	+0	-0	+8	+1	0.4
2022	22	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	247	231	60	10	0	5	13	53	2	3	4	260	305	368	673	108	311	21	5	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	289	264	80	10	2	11	14	49	5	0	0	303	350	481	831	178	320	17	5	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	173	165	33	6	0	6	4	40	0	0	1	200	219	345	564	145	227	23	2	241	49	-10	-0	-1	+2	+4	-0.6
2023	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	308	294	66	14	0	10	12	92	0	0	1	224	255	374	629	150	289	30	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	369	352	89	13	0	8	11	77	3	3	1	253	281	358	639	105	303	21	3	283	77	-10	+0	-3	+2	+8	-0.2
2024	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	113	105	24	7	0	4	6	24	0	2	1	229	270	410	680	181	253	21	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	544	518	137	20	1	22	18	127	4	2	1	264	294	434	729	170	309	23	3	317	101	+1	+0	-3	+2	+12	1.2
2026	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	117	113	22	7	0	1	1	25	1	0	0	195	209	283	492	88	239	21	1	215	32	-10	+0	+1	+1	+3	-0.6
2026	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	68	64	12	2	0	1	4	20	0	0	2	188	235	266	501	78	276	29	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	18	16	1	1	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	62	167	125	292	62	159	44	6	148	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	180	164	38	3	2	2	9	35	1	3	4	232	276	311	587	79	279	19	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	—	180	159	43	4	2	2	14	24	1	3	4	270	333	358	692	88	304	13	8	304	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	—	291	279	63	9	2	3	4	52	4	2	2	226	247	305	552	79	264	18	1	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	—	291	276	81	13	3	4	7	36	4	2	2	293	321	406	726	112	322	12	2	319	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	536	510	106	26	2	7	18	139	3	6	6	208	239	308	547	100	270	26	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	536	501	126	35	2	7	27	102	3	6	6	251	294	371	665	120	301	19	5	295	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	474	457	102	19	1	9	11	141	4	3	5	223	248	328	576	105	301	30	2	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	474	451	122	24	1	11	16	105	4	3	5	271	301	401	702	131	329	22	3	311	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	742	687	186	28	2	22	36	148	10	3	4	271	317	413	730	143	312	20	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA RAW	4 teams	—	742	669	197	32	3	26	54	131	10	3	4	294	356	468	824	173	329	18	7	361	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	481	459	99	20	0	16	16	132	0	0	2	216	242	364	606	148	265	27	3	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	481	452	111	23	0	23	23	115	0	0	2	246	282	449	731	204	278	24	5	317	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	595	563	139	24	0	15	21	125	6	6	2	247	281	369	651	123	292	21	4	286	80	-14	+0	-3	+2	+13	-0.2
2024	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	595	555	157	30	1	23	29	120	6	6	2	283	325	465	790	182	324	20	5	346	80	-14	+0	-3	+2	+13	-0.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	662	630	165	24	1	26	22	155	6	3	1	262	293	427	720	165	308	23	3	317	101	+1	+0	-3	+2	+14	1.5
2025	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	662	629	167	28	1	29	23	143	6	3	1	266	298	452	749	186	300	22	3	328	101	+1	+0	-3	+2	+14	1.5
2026	26	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	249	238	45	13	0	3	6	66	3	0	2	189	219	282	500	92	247	27	2	218	33	-20	-1	+1	+1	+5	-1.4
2026	26	MLB RAW	4 teams	—	249	226	51	13	0	5	18	58	3	0	2	226	291	350	641	124	280	23	7	288	33	-20	-1	+1	+1	+5	-1.4
2017	17	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	180	168	38	3	2	2	9	35	1	3	4	226	276	304	579	77	263	19	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	—	291	281	63	9	2	3	4	52	4	2	2	224	247	302	550	78	260	18	1	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	536	510	106	26	2	7	18	139	3	6	6	208	239	308	547	100	264	26	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	474	456	102	19	1	9	11	141	4	3	5	224	248	329	577	105	298	30	2	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	742	690	186	28	2	22	36	148	10	3	4	270	317	412	728	142	305	20	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	481	462	99	20	0	16	16	132	0	0	2	214	242	361	604	147	267	27	3	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	595	563	139	24	0	15	21	125	6	6	2	247	281	369	651	123	292	21	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	662	629	165	24	1	26	22	155	6	3	1	262	293	428	721	165	309	23	3	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	249	238	45	13	0	3	6	66	3	0	2	189	219	282	500	92	244	27	2	218	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	595	563	139	24	0	15	21	125	6	6	2	247	281	369	651	123	292	21	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	662	629	165	24	1	26	22	155	6	3	1	262	293	428	721	165	309	23	3	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	249	238	45	13	0	3	6	66	3	0	2	189	219	282	500	92	244	27	2	218	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	100%	385	365	90	16	1	12	14	90	3	3	1	246	280	393	673	147	293	23	4	296	87	-6	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	238	225	55	10	0	7	9	55	2	2	0	247	281	394	675	147	294	23	4	297	87	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	290	276	68	12	1	9	10	68	2	1	0	245	278	389	667	144	292	23	3	294	85	-5	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	286	272	65	12	0	8	10	68	2	0	0	242	275	383	658	140	291	24	3	290	82	-6	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	284	270	64	12	0	8	10	68	2	0	0	239	271	375	646	136	289	24	4	285	79	-7	+0	-3	+1	+6	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	238	225	55	10	0	7	9	56	2	1	0	245	279	390	668	144	293	24	4	294	85	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	235	223	54	10	0	7	8	56	2	0	0	243	276	383	659	140	292	24	3	290	82	-5	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	233	221	54	10	0	7	8	56	2	0	0	240	272	375	647	136	290	24	3	285	79	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1945	1850	448	77	1	59	62	449	14	6	3	242	272	381	653	138	288	23	3	287	74	-46	+0	-11	+18	+42	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	618	150	26	0	20	21	150	5	2	1	243	273	382	655	139	288	23	3	287	74	-15	+0	-4	+6	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5308	5030	1195	212	11	135	182	1252	45	29	28	238	270	365	635	127	289	24	3	277	74	-53	+0	-13	+19	+51	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	616	146	26	1	17	22	153	6	4	3	237	271	365	636	128	287	24	3	277	74	-15	+0	-3	+5	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 68 PAwOBA .307 → .241 (−66)K% 25.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.35%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.16%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.91%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	21.51%
Doubles /BIP	6.52%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	5.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .307 → .241; ISO .143 → .102; BABIP .318 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 18 PAwOBA .217 → .148 (−68)K% 33.3% → 45.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	45.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.960	3.68%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.780	—	×0.960	4.16%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.960	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.960	15.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.960	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.960	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .217 → .148; ISO .125 → .084; BABIP .200 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 113 PAwOBA .362 → .297 (−65)K% 17.7% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.70%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	21.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.96%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.62%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.07%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.983	×1.048	15.84%
Doubles /BIP	9.76%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.983	×1.048	8.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.049	×0.970	×0.983	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.32%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×1.048	5.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .362 → .297; ISO .255 → .196; BABIP .286 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 308 PAwOBA .346 → .273 (−73)K% 24.4% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.35%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	29.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.84%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×1.050	3.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.66%	÷0.967	×0.930	×0.985	×1.050	20.54%
Doubles /BIP	7.98%	÷0.971	×0.830	×0.985	×1.050	7.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.970	×0.985	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.98%	÷1.152	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 99, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .346 → .273; ISO .236 → .158; BABIP .310 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABirmingham Barons · 289 PAwOBA .401 → .359 (−42)K% 13.8% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.84%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	17.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.92%	÷0.993	×0.680	—	×1.042	4.94%
HBP% /PA	1.73%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	1.51%
Singles /BIP	27.19%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.989	×1.042	25.79%
Doubles /BIP	4.61%	÷0.947	×0.910	×0.989	×1.042	4.56%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷0.987	×0.880	×0.989	×1.042	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷1.056	×0.800	—	×1.042	5.09%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 97, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .401 → .359; ISO .218 → .185; BABIP .340 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 247 PAwOBA .355 → .289 (−66)K% 17.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.41%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	21.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.29%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.13%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.80%
Singles /BIP	25.14%	÷1.003	×0.930	×1.016	×1.050	24.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.56%	÷1.028	×0.830	×1.016	×1.050	5.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.016	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.92%	÷1.421	×0.700	—	×1.050	2.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .355 → .289; ISO .173 → .105; BABIP .331 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 353 PAwOBA .329 → .268 (−60)K% 21.8% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.81%	÷0.974	×1.350	—	—	30.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.97%	÷1.079	×0.710	—	×1.027	2.68%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.47%
Singles /BIP	26.07%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.993	×1.027	24.21%
Doubles /BIP	7.39%	÷0.976	×0.830	×0.993	×1.027	6.42%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷1.012	×0.820	×0.993	×1.027	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	3.89%	÷0.956	×0.830	—	×1.027	3.47%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 102, K 95, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .329 → .268; ISO .153 → .123; BABIP .349 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABirmingham Barons · 121 PAwOBA .230 → .188 (−41)K% 23.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.14%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	28.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.65%	÷1.119	×0.690	—	×1.050	1.07%
HBP% /PA	1.65%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	1.48%
Singles /BIP	21.35%	÷1.075	×0.940	×0.950	×1.050	18.61%
Doubles /BIP	5.62%	÷0.928	×0.870	×0.950	×1.050	5.25%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.12%	÷1.087	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.85%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 115, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 100, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .230 → .188; ISO .068 → .056; BABIP .273 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dave Roberts'72-'82 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,189 PA	3.3	2,189	49	27	236*	284*	386*	+12	-13	2.9	4.1
/162	664	15	8	+3.8	-4.0	0.9	pk7: 5
#2Dale Sveum'86-'99 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,810 PA	4.2	2,810	69	10	232*	295*	389*	+14	-23	1.4	2.4
/162	664	16	2	+3.4	-5.4	0.3	pk7: 4
#3Larvell Blanks'72-'80 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,953 PA	2.9	1,953	20	9	249*	301*	364*	+15	-10	1.6	2.4
/162	664	7	3	+5.2	-3.2	0.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.2	2,146	65	8	245	272	385	+8	-8	2.1	2.4
/162	664	20	3	+2.4	-2.6	0.6	pk7: 3
#4Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#5Jose Castillolast yr '08 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	39	13	254	296	379	+7	-14	1.9	1.9
/162	664	13	4	+2.4	-4.5	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lenyn Sosa (OGILVIE)	27	55	50	45	30	244/278/390	146	293	7	2	23%	4%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Joel Guzman 2012 · AAA	27	46→52	51→50	42→45	41	237/282/390	153	289	20	5	26%	5%	88	+0.4	227/271/332	105	281	12	5	23%	5%	70	-0.9	223/265/306	82	273	11	2	22%	5%	58	-0.7
✕Alan Trejo 2023 · MLB	27	44→46	51→55	40→45	38	229/267/396	167	283	18	5	26%	4%	84	+0.1	225/275/355	130	286	13	9	25%	6%	77	-0.3	215/269/335	119	274	12	7	25%	6%	68	-0.6
✕Matt Duffy 2016 · AAA	27	49→50	48→50	43→40	42	244/298/383	139	295	16	4	23%	5%	93	+0.8	220/275/352	132	299	16	5	31%	5%	77	-0.3	187/242/311	123	270	16	1	36%	4%	53	-1.6
✕Jett Bandy 2017 · MLB	27	45	48→50	44→45	41	228/283/365	137	265	16	5	21%	4%	83	+0.1	218/281/357	139	266	17	5	25%	5%	81	-0.1	198/267/334	136	246	18	3	27%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Tim Federowicz 2015 · MLB	27	47→51	49→50	46→40	41	235/284/383	148	305	16	3	28%	6%	87	+0.4	225/271/361	136	294	16	5	28%	6%	77	-0.3	229/278/358	129	296	14	3	27%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Christian Arroyo 2022 · MLB	27	46→56	52→50	50→45	42	238/301/405	167	291	20	7	25%	6%	99	+1.2	233/278/353	120	283	12	8	21%	5%	77	-0.3	221/270/322	101	280	10	8	24%	5%	65	-0.4
●James McCann 2017 · MLB	27	48→55	46→50	43→45	41	242/287/371	130	303	14	3	25%	5%	85	+0.2	244/298/387	143	307	17	3	25%	6%	93	+0.8	258/317/420	162	336	21	4	28%	7%	109	+1.1
✕Aaron Herr 2008 · AAA	27	50→52	49→50	44→45	37	248/288/400	152	332	17	7	30%	5%	92	+0.7	221/262/362	141	312	16	7	33%	5%	74	-0.6	188/220/318	130	266	16	2	36%	3%	44	-1.5
✕Raudy Read 2021 · AAA	27	43→46	53→55	47→45	39	230/267/401	170	268	21	5	24%	4%	84	+0.2	241/300/423	182	297	22	5	26%	7%	103	+1.5	244/310/433	190	296	23	0	25%	7%	107	+0.7
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2019 · AA	27	47→48	49→55	43→30	39	241/281/386	144	292	18	2	24%	4%	86	+0.3	238/282/414	176	286	22	3	25%	4%	94	+0.9	220/271/408	188	267	25	1	28%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Humberto Cota 2006 · MLB	27	47	50	48→30	41	239/283/396	157	294	17	4	25%	5%	89	+0.5	235/283/344	109	285	10	5	20%	6%	76	-0.4	255/323/369	114	306	12	0	20%	9%	97	+0.6
✕Shawn Bowman 2012 · AAA	27	46→42	49→50	44→40	37	233/273/379	146	305	17	4	30%	5%	82	-0.0	215/257/333	118	302	13	5	32%	5%	65	-1.2	200/239/304	104	282	12	1	33%	4%	49	-1.8
✕Michael Chavis 2023 · MLB	27	44→46	52→60	44→45	36	228/270/392	163	296	21	5	30%	4%	84	+0.1	226/273/374	148	294	17	8	28%	5%	81	-0.1	209/263/354	145	260	18	7	27%	5%	70	-0.6
✕Tony Sanchez 2015 · MLB	27	46→51	50	45→40	44	230/295/386	155	298	17	2	28%	7%	92	+0.7	210/278/318	108	271	10	5	25%	7%	70	-0.8	219/278/310	92	289	9	1	26%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Rob Cosby 2008 · AAA	27	46→53	49→50	39→30	39	237/271/384	147	279	17	2	22%	4%	82	-0.0	212/246/340	128	241	13	5	18%	4%	62	-1.4	182/206/297	115	196	12	2	15%	2%	34	-2.2
✕Sheldon Neuse 2022 · MLB	27	49→53	49→50	49→45	40	243/291/386	143	328	17	8	30%	6%	90	+0.6	246/292/365	119	326	13	11	27%	6%	85	+0.2	254/298/352	98	333	11	11	26%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Eliezer Alfonzo 2007 · MLB	28	49→54	52→55	46→40	36	249/289/411	162	307	20	4	26%	3%	96	+1.0	241/273/388	147	307	17	4	27%	3%	84	+0.1	259/286/467	208	286	32	2	22%	2%	107	+0.7
✕Yu Chang 2023 · MLB	27	44→47	49→50	42→45	43	225/290/378	153	296	17	5	29%	7%	88	+0.5	222/282/375	153	286	20	12	29%	7%	84	+0.2	187/223/337	149	216	25	18	28%	3%	53	-0.7
✕Joshua Fuentes 2020 · MLB	27	46→55	46→50	44→45	35	229/261/365	136	304	13	5	30%	4%	74	-0.6	215/251/337	122	287	13	5	29%	4%	63	-1.3	205/239/312	107	268	12	2	28%	3%	52	-0.9
✕Jamie Westbrook 2022 · AAA	27	48→54	48→50	48→45	46	242/301/379	137	275	16	5	19%	6%	92	+0.7	235/305/360	125	276	14	5	19%	7%	90	+0.6	236/306/362	126	281	13	4	20%	8%	88	+0.3

Lenyn Sosa

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps