Allan Cerda — OGILVIE

Allan CerdaOF Wichita Wind Surge

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .278 / .340

PA12

HR0

K%32

BB%8

ISO140

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	214	173	47	11	0	6	25	45	14	3	2	272	406	439	845	168	331	21	12	381	144	+11	-0	—	—	+5	1.6
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	87	77	21	8	1	3	10	20	0	1	1	273	356	519	876	247	333	23	11	382	145	+5	-0	—	—	+2	0.6
2021	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	276	227	55	14	4	14	31	85	14	1	7	242	368	524	892	282	311	31	11	385	147	+15	-3	—	—	+6	1.9
2022	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	257	207	41	9	0	11	42	77	7	4	1	198	352	401	753	203	250	30	16	342	118	+5	+0	—	—	+6	1.2
2022	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	249	201	44	13	1	13	42	91	6	3	3	219	369	488	857	269	320	37	17	379	143	+13	-1	—	—	+5	1.8
2023	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	193	155	28	7	0	6	31	71	7	5	6	181	342	342	684	161	282	37	16	320	103	+1	-1	—	—	+4	0.4
2023	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	30	21	5	1	0	0	7	8	1	0	0	238	448	286	734	48	357	27	23	351	124	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	23	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	22	21	3	0	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	143	182	381	563	238	154	32	5	241	49	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2023	23	ROK	ACL Reds	—	27	17	4	1	0	3	10	8	0	1	0	235	519	824	1.342	588	167	30	37	537	250	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	24	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	105	92	17	2	1	5	13	32	0	1	0	185	286	391	677	207	218	30	12	303	91	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	24	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	16	14	3	1	0	2	1	7	1	0	0	214	312	714	1.027	500	200	44	6	430	177	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	32	4	1	1	1	3	15	0	0	0	125	200	312	512	188	188	43	9	228	40	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	214	183	35	7	0	5	15	65	14	3	2	191	302	311	613	120	246	30	7	264	65	-9	-0	—	—	+5	-0.5
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	87	80	16	6	1	2	7	27	0	1	1	200	264	375	639	175	265	31	8	276	73	-3	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2021	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	276	237	43	10	3	11	21	111	14	1	7	181	287	388	675	207	258	40	8	289	82	-6	-3	—	—	+6	-0.3
2022	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	257	220	35	7	0	9	29	93	7	4	1	159	277	314	591	155	209	36	11	258	61	-12	+0	—	—	+6	-0.6
2022	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	249	212	30	7	1	9	31	117	6	3	3	142	269	311	580	170	239	47	12	258	61	-12	-1	—	—	+5	-0.7
2023	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	193	166	21	5	0	4	20	90	7	5	6	127	249	229	478	102	244	47	10	228	40	-14	-1	—	—	+4	-1.1
2023	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	30	23	5	1	0	0	5	11	1	0	0	217	379	261	640	43	324	37	17	286	80	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2023	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	22	21	3	0	1	1	1	10	0	0	0	143	182	381	563	238	124	45	5	157	-8	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	27	21	3	1	0	2	6	11	0	1	0	143	333	476	810	333	102	41	22	366	134	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	105	96	14	1	1	4	9	38	0	1	0	146	219	302	521	156	186	36	9	223	37	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2024	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	16	14	2	1	0	1	1	10	1	0	0	143	250	429	679	286	149	62	6	231	42	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	19	0	0	0	121	171	303	474	182	158	54	6	147	-14	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	214	183	35	7	0	5	15	65	14	3	2	191	302	311	613	120	261	30	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	214	173	47	11	0	6	25	45	14	3	2	272	406	439	845	168	331	21	12	381	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	363	317	58	16	4	13	28	139	14	2	8	183	279	382	660	199	266	38	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	363	304	76	22	5	17	41	105	14	2	8	250	365	523	888	273	317	29	11	384	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	506	432	64	14	1	18	60	210	13	7	4	148	271	310	581	162	224	42	12	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	506	408	85	22	1	24	84	168	13	7	4	208	360	444	804	235	281	33	17	360	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	4 teams	—	272	231	32	7	1	7	32	122	8	6	6	139	266	268	534	130	243	45	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	4 teams	—	272	214	40	9	1	10	49	94	8	6	6	187	358	379	736	192	270	35	18	339	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	121	110	16	2	1	5	10	48	1	1	0	145	223	318	541	173	193	40	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	121	106	20	3	1	7	14	39	1	1	0	189	289	434	723	245	217	32	12	320	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	19	0	0	0	121	171	303	474	182	231	54	6	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	32	4	1	1	1	3	15	0	0	0	125	200	312	512	188	188	43	9	228	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	214	183	35	7	0	5	15	65	14	3	2	191	302	311	613	120	246	30	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	363	318	58	16	4	13	28	139	14	2	8	182	279	381	659	198	260	38	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	506	428	64	14	1	18	60	210	13	7	4	150	271	313	584	164	224	42	12	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	4 teams	—	272	230	32	7	1	7	32	122	8	6	6	139	266	270	535	130	229	45	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	121	109	16	2	1	5	10	48	1	1	0	147	223	321	544	174	181	40	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	19	0	0	0	121	171	303	474	182	158	54	6	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	AA MLE	4 teams	—	272	230	32	7	1	7	32	122	8	6	6	139	266	270	535	130	229	45	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	121	109	16	2	1	5	10	48	1	1	0	147	223	321	544	174	181	40	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	19	0	0	0	121	171	303	474	182	158	54	6	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	MIN	2%	12	11	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	91	167	91	258		278	33	8	280	76	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	27%	209	187	39	7	1	6	18	65	2	3	1	209	285	353	638	144	279	31	9	285	79	-5	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	40%	276	247	51	10	1	7	24	84	3	4	2	206	285	340	625	134	280	30	9	287	80	-7	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	45%	310	276	58	11	2	8	27	94	4	5	2	210	290	351	641	141	279	30	9	287	80	-7	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	27%	56	50	11	2	0	2	5	17	1	1	0	220	304	380	684	160	279	30	9	276	79	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	40%	110	99	21	4	1	3	9	33	1	2	1	212	284	364	648	152	280	30	8	278	80	-3	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	45%	139	124	27	5	1	4	12	42	2	2	1	218	297	371	668	153	280	30	9	278	80	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	305	273	59	11	2	9	26	92	4	5	2	216	294	370	664	154	287	30	9	278	67	-7	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	125	23	4	19	55	196	9	11	4	215	293	366	659	151	286	30	8	278	67	-16	+0	-2	-4	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2318	2027	358	75	12	70	217	850	59	31	25	177	275	329	604	152	257	37	9	267	67	-19	+0	-2	-5	+17	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	100	21	3	20	61	238	17	9	7	176	276	329	605	153	256	37	9	267	67	-16	+0	-2	-4	+14	-0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	308	8	5	210	284	352	-2	+0	-0.0	-0.0
/162	664	18	10	-4.0	+0.0	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Allan Cerda (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	201/278/340	139	278	4	2	32%	8%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Podkul 2023 · AAA	26	40	45→50	48→50	46	199/285/316	117	280	13	9	32%	9%	73	-0.6	212/301/356	144	295	17	5	32%	9%	88	+0.4	207/301/369	163	277	20	1	31%	10%	87	+0.2
✕Taylor Featherston 2016 · MLB	26	42→47	46→50	50	39	212/257/343	130	272	13	12	27%	4%	67	-1.1	198/251/312	114	276	11	11	31%	5%	58	-1.7	184/241/291	108	266	11	12	34%	5%	48	-1.6
✕Coco Montes 2023 · AAA	26	41→46	47→50	51→50	41	206/270/345	139	289	14	10	33%	7%	73	-0.6	224/289/358	134	318	14	10	32%	8%	83	+0.1	222/287/346	124	316	12	9	32%	7%	77	-0.3
✕Ryan Cordell 2018 · AAA	26	42→43	49→50	52→50	40	218/266/368	150	278	17	14	28%	6%	76	-0.4	208/258/330	122	282	13	12	30%	6%	65	-1.2	179/234/295	116	256	14	13	35%	6%	47	-1.1
✕Cam Devanney 2023 · AAA	26	38→41	48→50	45	41	201/263/342	141	261	16	6	29%	6%	70	-0.8	216/279/360	144	284	15	8	28%	7%	80	-0.2	212/276/353	142	282	15	7	29%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Weston Wilson 2021 · AA	26	39→43	47→55	49→55	43	204/262/334	130	263	15	10	28%	7%	68	-1.0	212/275/360	148	284	19	18	31%	8%	78	-0.3	207/286/372	166	264	22	25	30%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Michael Hermosillo 2021 · MLB	26	40→47	49→50	49→55	39	202/280/348	147	296	17	13	36%	7%	78	-0.3	220/309/387	167	298	19	15	31%	8%	99	+1.2	201/287/379	178	249	24	18	29%	6%	86	+0.1
✕Kevin Padlo 2022 · MLB	26	37→40	51→50	48→50	42	199/266/360	161	273	20	10	34%	8%	76	-0.4	193/263/325	132	270	15	13	32%	8%	66	-1.1	176/257/299	122	245	13	14	32%	9%	56	-1.1
✕Sean Bouchard 2022 · AA	26	42→44	49→55	47→50	39	214/267/368	155	297	15	10	33%	6%	77	-0.3	228/315/410	182	304	20	14	30%	10%	105	+1.7	223/323/414	192	292	21	16	29%	12%	107	+0.9
✕Brendon Davis 2023 · AAA	26	40→43	50	47→50	44	207/277/363	156	267	18	10	29%	8%	80	-0.1	193/271/317	124	263	13	14	30%	8%	68	-1.0	168/255/275	107	235	10	17	31%	8%	50	-1.2
✕Mike Ahmed 2018 · AAA	26	44→45	46→50	46→50	44	217/285/345	128	303	14	11	32%	8%	78	-0.3	209/265/319	110	325	10	8	36%	6%	65	-1.2	195/248/296	100	312	8	6	38%	5%	51	-0.9
✕Wladimir Balentien 2010 · MLB	26	43→45	52→55	44→50	47	224/287/391	167	270	19	7	25%	8%	90	+0.6	232/287/399	167	280	20	11	24%	7%	92	+0.7	228/276/401	173	268	21	14	24%	6%	88	+0.4
✕Brandon Barnes 2012 · AAA	26	38→48	50→55	49→50	39	203/252/359	156	265	18	10	31%	5%	70	-0.9	233/280/362	129	313	12	15	28%	5%	80	-0.1	243/288/366	124	328	11	16	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	41	45→40	48→55	42	208/268/333	125	282	13	14	30%	7%	70	-0.9	232/303/339	107	302	9	27	24%	8%	84	+0.1	241/321/332	91	311	6	48	22%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Zack Short 2021 · AAA	26	41→39	46→50	47→45	47	202/290/335	132	294	13	8	33%	10%	78	-0.3	190/285/318	128	262	14	9	31%	11%	74	-0.6	177/277/301	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	65	-0.9
✕J.J. Davis 2005 · MLB	26	45	45→50	50→45	48	222/293/343	122	286	13	13	26%	9%	81	-0.1	225/287/382	157	304	20	11	31%	7%	88	+0.4	205/264/359	154	277	22	9	34%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Eliseo Aldazaba 2017 · AAA	26	44→46	47→50	47→50	41	223/275/358	135	279	16	13	26%	5%	78	-0.3	212/276/345	133	268	13	13	25%	7%	76	-0.4	183/258/317	134	223	13	12	24%	8%	62	-0.9
✕Jabari Henry 2016 · AA	25	37→41	51→55	46→45	47	195/277/358	163	261	19	7	32%	10%	80	-0.2	194/261/329	135	273	16	6	33%	7%	66	-1.1	171/237/295	123	231	17	2	34%	6%	47	-1.7
✕Jacob Heyward 2022 · AA	26	37→40	50→45	42→50	44	193/284/345	152	280	18	8	36%	9%	80	-0.2	194/266/321	127	304	15	6	39%	8%	66	-1.1	160/235/262	102	257	14	1	41%	8%	40	-1.9
✕Wendell Rijo 2022 · AAA	26	40→43	50	48→50	41	213/268/365	152	268	19	9	28%	6%	77	-0.3	217/278/346	129	289	13	17	28%	7%	76	-0.4	219/282/358	139	281	14	27	26%	7%	78	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps