Allan Cerda
OF Wichita Wind Surge| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AA/A+/A/ROKCIN | 272 | .187/.358/.379 | 10 | 6 | 51 | — | .144/.270/.278 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A+SF | 121 | .189/.289/.434 | 7 | 1 | 41 | — | .145/.223/.319 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAMIN | 35 | .125/.200/.312 | 1 | 0 | -15 | — | .121/.171/.303 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBMIN | 2 | .206/.272/.338 | 0 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBMIN | 34 | .206/.273/.337 | 1 | 0 | 71 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 214 | 173 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 45 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 272 | 406 | 439 | 845 | 168 | 331 | 21 | 12 | 381 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 87 | 77 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 273 | 356 | 519 | 876 | 247 | 333 | 23 | 11 | 382 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 276 | 227 | 55 | 14 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 85 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 242 | 368 | 524 | 892 | 282 | 311 | 31 | 11 | 385 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 257 | 207 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 77 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 198 | 352 | 401 | 753 | 203 | 250 | 30 | 16 | 342 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 249 | 201 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 42 | 91 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 219 | 369 | 488 | 857 | 269 | 320 | 37 | 17 | 379 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 193 | 155 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 71 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 181 | 342 | 342 | 684 | 161 | 282 | 37 | 16 | 320 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 30 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 448 | 286 | 734 | 48 | 357 | 27 | 23 | 351 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 22 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 182 | 381 | 563 | 238 | 154 | 32 | 5 | 241 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 27 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 519 | 824 | 1.342 | 588 | 167 | 30 | 37 | 537 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 105 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 286 | 391 | 677 | 207 | 218 | 30 | 12 | 303 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 16 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 312 | 714 | 1.027 | 500 | 200 | 44 | 6 | 430 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 35 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 200 | 312 | 512 | 188 | 188 | 43 | 9 | 228 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 214 | 181 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 160 | 283 | 243 | 526 | 83 | 201 | 26 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 87 | 80 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 264 | 375 | 639 | 175 | 269 | 31 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 276 | 237 | 43 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 111 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 181 | 287 | 388 | 675 | 207 | 258 | 40 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 257 | 220 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 93 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 159 | 277 | 314 | 591 | 155 | 215 | 36 | 11 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 249 | 212 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 110 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 151 | 277 | 325 | 603 | 175 | 237 | 44 | 12 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 193 | 166 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 90 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 133 | 254 | 241 | 495 | 108 | 247 | 47 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 30 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 379 | 261 | 640 | 43 | 323 | 33 | 17 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 22 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 182 | 381 | 563 | 238 | 128 | 41 | 5 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 27 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 333 | 476 | 810 | 333 | 96 | 41 | 22 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 105 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 146 | 219 | 302 | 521 | 156 | 191 | 36 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 429 | 679 | 286 | 159 | 62 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 35 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 171 | 303 | 474 | 182 | 154 | 54 | 6 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 214 | 181 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 160 | 283 | 243 | 526 | 83 | 208 | 26 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 214 | 173 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 45 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 272 | 406 | 439 | 845 | 168 | 331 | 21 | 12 | 381 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 317 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 139 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 186 | 281 | 385 | 666 | 199 | 272 | 38 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 363 | 304 | 76 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 41 | 105 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 250 | 365 | 523 | 888 | 273 | 317 | 29 | 11 | 384 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 432 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 203 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 155 | 277 | 319 | 597 | 164 | 231 | 40 | 12 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 506 | 408 | 85 | 22 | 1 | 24 | 84 | 168 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 208 | 360 | 444 | 804 | 235 | 281 | 33 | 17 | 360 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 272 | 232 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 121 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 138 | 262 | 267 | 529 | 129 | 238 | 44 | 11 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 272 | 214 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 49 | 94 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 187 | 358 | 379 | 736 | 192 | 270 | 35 | 18 | 339 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 121 | 110 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 145 | 223 | 318 | 541 | 173 | 193 | 40 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 121 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 289 | 434 | 723 | 245 | 217 | 32 | 12 | 320 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 35 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 171 | 303 | 474 | 182 | 231 | 54 | 6 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 35 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 200 | 312 | 512 | 188 | 188 | 43 | 9 | 228 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 214 | 181 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 160 | 283 | 243 | 526 | 83 | 201 | 26 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 318 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 139 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 186 | 281 | 384 | 665 | 198 | 261 | 38 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 428 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 203 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 157 | 277 | 322 | 600 | 166 | 226 | 40 | 12 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 272 | 231 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 121 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 139 | 262 | 268 | 530 | 130 | 231 | 44 | 11 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 121 | 109 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 223 | 321 | 544 | 174 | 187 | 40 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 35 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 171 | 303 | 474 | 182 | 154 | 54 | 6 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 121 | 109 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 223 | 321 | 544 | 174 | 187 | 40 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 35 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 171 | 303 | 474 | 182 | 154 | 54 | 6 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 2% | 200 | 181 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 61 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 272 | 337 | 610 | 132 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 274 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 272 | 338 | 610 | 132 | 277 | 50 | 0 | 274 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 27% | 128 | 116 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 273 | 336 | 609 | 130 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 27% | 34 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 273 | 337 | 610 | 131 | 277 | 29 | 9 | 274 | 71 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 34 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 265 | 323 | 587 | 129 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 274 | 61 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 114 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 57 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 263 | 320 | 583 | 128 | 248 | 29 | 9 | 274 | 61 | -22 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1723 | 1498 | 247 | 54 | 10 | 52 | 164 | 650 | 52 | 22 | 21 | 165 | 270 | 318 | 589 | 154 | 242 | 38 | 10 | 259 | 61 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 565 | 93 | 20 | 4 | 20 | 62 | 245 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 165 | 270 | 320 | 591 | 156 | 241 | 38 | 10 | 259 | 61 | -22 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 35 PAwOBA .222 → .146 (−75)K% 42.9% → 55.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.86% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 55.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.025 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 5.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 4.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 4.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.71% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .222 → .146; ISO .188 → .119; BABIP .188 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 105 PAwOBA .295 → .226 (−69)K% 30.5% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.48% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.38% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 13.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.110 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.062 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 6.11% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .295 → .226; ISO .207 → .151; BABIP .218 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 16 PAwOBA .417 → .247 (−169)K% 43.8% → 61.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.75% | ÷0.968 | ×1.350 | — | — | 61.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 4.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 4.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 12.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 22.97% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .417 → .247; ISO .500 → .276; BABIP .200 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 193 PAwOBA .313 → .231 (−82)K% 36.8% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.79% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.06% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 10.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.63% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 3.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 16.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 7.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.69% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .313 → .231; ISO .161 → .121; BABIP .282 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 30 PAwOBA .356 → .291 (−65)K% 26.7% → 34.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.33% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 16.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 28.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 6.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .356 → .291; ISO .048 → .040; BABIP .357 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Reds · 27 PAwOBA .524 → .355 (−169)K% 29.6% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.63% | ÷1.027 | ×1.440 | — | — | 41.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 37.04% | ÷1.040 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 21.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.038 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 23.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .524 → .355; ISO .588 → .461; BABIP .167 → .096. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 22 PAwOBA .234 → .158 (−76)K% 31.8% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 3.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.032 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 6.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.083 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 5.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.060 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 5.28% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .234 → .158; ISO .238 → .156; BABIP .154 → .128. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 257 PAwOBA .335 → .265 (−70)K% 30.0% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.96% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.34% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 11.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.15% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 14.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.92% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.46% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 7.02% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .335 → .265; ISO .203 → .167; BABIP .250 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).