Allan Cerda — OGILVIE

Allan CerdaOF Wichita Wind Surge

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 230 lbs AA BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .259 / .312

PA136

HR4

K%40

BB%9

MLB%2%

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-10M		$-30M	-$21M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$21M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	DSL Reds	214	183	35	7	0	5	15	65	14	3	2	.191	.302	.311	.613	.120	.261	30	7	.264	60	-10	-0	+0	-1	+6	-0.5
2021	21	A	2 teams	363	317	60	16	4	14	28	138	14	2	8	.189	.284	.397	.682	.208	.272	38	8	.294	83	-7	-3	+0	-2	+10	-0.2
2022	22	AA	2 teams	506	433	66	15	1	19	59	210	13	7	4	.152	.273	.323	.597	.171	.229	42	12	.265	61	-22	-0	+0	-3	+14	-1.1
2023	23	AA	4 teams	272	232	32	7	1	8	31	128	8	6	6	.138	.262	.280	.542	.142	.247	47	11	.241	42	-18	-1	+0	-2	+8	-1.3
2024	24	AA	2 teams	121	110	16	2	1	5	10	50	1	1	0	.145	.223	.318	.541	.173	.200	41	8	.230	35	-9	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
2025	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	21	0	0	0	.121	.171	.303	.474	.182	.273	60	6	.141	-34	-5	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	MIN	136	121	22	4	1	4	12	55	2	2	1	.182	.267	.331	.597	.149	.282	40	9	.261	58	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 11%	MIN	209	186	34	6	1	6	18	81	3	3	1	.183	.266	.323	.588	.140	.283	39	9	.267	63	-9	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.4
2028	28	MLB 22%	MIN	276	246	47	9	1	8	24	104	4	4	2	.191	.274	.333	.607	.142	.284	38	9	.271	65	-11	+0	-1	-2	+8	-0.5
2029	29	MLB 34%	MIN	310	276	52	10	1	8	27	115	4	4	1	.188	.270	.319	.589	.130	.283	37	9	.271	66	-12	+0	-1	-2	+9	-0.6
2030	30	MLB 44%	MIN	333	297	55	10	1	9	29	124	4	4	1	.185	.267	.316	.583	.131	.282	37	9	.269	64	-13	+0	-2	-2	+9	-0.8
2031	31	MLB 58%	MIN	330	294	55	10	1	9	29	124	4	2	1	.187	.269	.320	.589	.133	.280	38	9	.266	61	-14	+0	-3	-2	+9	-1.0
2032	32	MLB 76%	MIN	319	284	52	10	1	8	28	121	4	1	0	.183	.266	.310	.576	.127	.278	38	9	.261	58	-15	+0	-4	-2	+9	-1.2
2033	33	MLB 93%	MIN	294	263	47	9	1	7	26	114	3	0	0	.179	.260	.300	.561	.122	.276	39	9	.256	54	-15	+0	-4	-2	+8	-1.3
2034	34	MLB	MIN	254	227	40	7	1	6	22	100	3	0	0	.176	.258	.295	.553	.119	.274	39	9	.249	49	-15	+0	-5	-2	+7	-1.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3972	3502	617	123	17	117	360	1550	81	39	27	.176	.268	.321	.590	.145	.269	39	9	.263	59	-182	-3	-20	-24	+113	-11.8
/ 162G	—			650	573	101	20	3	19	59	254	13	6	4	.176	.268	.321	.589	.145	.271	39	9	.263	59	-30	-0	-3	-4	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	DSL Reds	214	173	47	11	0	6	25	45	14	3	2	.272	.406	.439	.845	.168	.331	21	12	.381	150	+12	-0	—	—	+6	1.8
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	87	77	21	8	1	3	10	20	0	1	1	.273	.356	.519	.876	.247	.333	23	11	.382	151	+5	-0	—	—	+2	0.7
2021	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	276	227	55	14	4	14	31	85	14	1	7	.242	.368	.524	.892	.282	.311	31	11	.385	153	+16	-3	—	—	+8	2.2
2022	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	257	207	41	9	0	11	42	77	7	4	1	.198	.352	.401	.753	.203	.250	30	16	.342	120	+6	+0	—	—	+7	1.4
2022	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	249	201	44	13	1	13	42	91	6	3	3	.219	.369	.488	.857	.269	.320	37	17	.379	148	+14	-1	—	—	+7	2.0
2023	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	193	155	28	7	0	6	31	71	7	5	6	.181	.342	.342	.684	.161	.282	37	16	.320	103	+1	-1	—	—	+5	0.5
2023	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	30	21	5	1	0	0	7	8	1	0	0	.238	.448	.286	.734	.048	.357	27	23	.351	127	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	23	A	Daytona Tortugas	22	21	3	0	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	.143	.182	.381	.563	.238	.154	32	5	.241	43	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	23	ROK	ACL Reds	27	17	4	1	0	3	10	8	0	1	0	.235	.519	.824	1.342	.588	.167	30	37	.537	269	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	24	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	105	92	17	2	1	5	13	32	0	1	0	.185	.286	.391	.677	.207	.218	30	12	.303	90	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2024	24	A+	Eugene Emeralds	16	14	3	1	0	2	1	7	1	0	0	.214	.312	.714	1.027	.500	.200	44	6	.430	187	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	35	32	4	1	1	1	3	15	0	0	0	.125	.200	.312	.512	.188	.188	43	9	.228	33	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Allan Cerda (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	.178/.259/.312	.134	.282	4	2	40%	9%	58	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Heyward 2022 · AA	26	38→40	50	42→50	44	.192/.286/.345	.153	.293	18	8	38%	10%	78	+0.2	.193/.266/.328	.135	.309	17	5	40%	8%	64	-0.8	.160/.236/.267	.107	.265	15	1	43%	8%	34	-1.7
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA	26	35→28	49→50	43→40	41	.191/.255/.331	.140	.253	18	5	32%	7%	60	-1.0	.195/.273/.341	.146	.245	19	5	28%	8%	71	-0.3	.191/.275/.335	.144	.229	19	4	26%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕Casey Golden 2021 · A	26	37→33	51→55	48→50	32	.184/.257/.335	.151	.325	20	11	47%	6%	63	-0.9	.205/.272/.349	.144	.410	16	7	50%	7%	72	-0.2	.180/.247/.347	.167	.394	21	2	55%	7%	59	-0.3
✕Landon Stephens 2023 · AA	25	32→29	51→55	42→40	38	.174/.254/.327	.153	.277	20	5	43%	8%	59	-1.1	.190/.273/.382	.192	.303	27	5	44%	9%	82	+0.5	.166/.260/.397	.231	.247	35	2	47%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Neil Medchill 2013 · AA	26	38→27	48→50	46→45	35	.190/.246/.323	.134	.309	16	7	42%	7%	54	-1.4	.212/.267/.327	.115	.349	12	7	40%	6%	63	-0.9	.206/.263/.291	.085	.344	10	5	40%	6%	50	-0.7
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA	26	34→25	42→55	45→50	35	.173/.235/.271	.098	.281	10	6	40%	6%	36	-2.7	.198/.254/.317	.119	.290	12	10	34%	5%	56	-1.3	.201/.254/.332	.131	.279	12	11	31%	4%	55	-0.5
✕Matthew Allegra 2007 · AA	26	38→37	49→50	44→40	36	.195/.252/.339	.145	.297	17	5	39%	6%	61	-1.0	.206/.260/.354	.148	.285	16	5	32%	6%	68	-0.5	.196/.247/.351	.155	.253	16	2	29%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Logan Hill 2019 · AA	26	39→40	50	41→45	39	.205/.267/.356	.151	.290	19	5	35%	6%	72	-0.2	.209/.270/.357	.148	.300	18	4	35%	7%	73	-0.1	.198/.259/.343	.145	.279	17	1	34%	6%	62	-0.8
✕Matt Dryer 2006 · A	26	35→39	49→50	46→40	38	.188/.246/.333	.144	.273	18	5	37%	6%	56	-1.3	.203/.259/.343	.140	.308	17	4	38%	6%	65	-0.7	.199/.254/.341	.142	.303	18	1	39%	5%	59	-0.7
✕Kody Kirkland 2009 · AAA	26	36→41	48→50	47→45	36	.189/.250/.329	.140	.276	15	9	36%	6%	57	-1.2	.199/.257/.313	.114	.279	10	10	31%	6%	56	-1.3	.172/.226/.260	.088	.236	6	7	29%	5%	25	-1.9
✕Taylor Snyder 2021 · A	26	39→32	45→55	49→50	33	.193/.242/.314	.120	.303	13	12	39%	5%	50	-1.8	.191/.242/.353	.162	.284	21	12	39%	6%	60	-1.0	.165/.222/.322	.157	.239	22	14	40%	7%	41	-1.2
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	35→30	47→45	50→45	43	.183/.260/.318	.135	.266	15	9	36%	9%	59	-1.1	.181/.252/.301	.120	.260	14	10	34%	8%	51	-1.7	.130/.207/.227	.097	.172	15	8	34%	8%	11	-2.0
✕Jeffrey Eure 2007 · AA	26	39→31	48→50	41→45	34	.201/.249/.340	.139	.286	16	5	35%	4%	59	-1.1	.202/.256/.317	.115	.302	11	7	35%	5%	56	-1.3	.159/.222/.237	.078	.262	5	5	39%	5%	17	-1.2
✕Kiel Roling 2013 · AA	26	38→36	51→55	42→30	36	.204/.251/.356	.152	.286	20	3	36%	6%	65	-0.7	.213/.262/.374	.161	.285	20	4	32%	6%	74	-0.1	.200/.251/.369	.169	.254	22	0	30%	6%	67	-0.4
✕Brock Kjeldgaard 2012 · AA	26	41→43	50	48→45	35	.203/.267/.357	.153	.322	18	8	41%	6%	72	-0.2	.192/.268/.344	.152	.297	19	5	40%	8%	69	-0.4	.166/.251/.314	.148	.246	21	1	40%	9%	53	-1.1
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	38→39	45	45→50	39	.191/.258/.315	.124	.278	12	11	34%	6%	57	-1.2	.189/.266/.294	.105	.293	8	13	36%	8%	56	-1.3	.164/.257/.268	.103	.258	7	16	36%	9%	46	-1.0
✕Edwin Díaz 2022 · AAA	26	35→34	48→50	49→40	35	.182/.243/.323	.141	.296	16	5	42%	6%	53	-1.5	.175/.228/.313	.138	.310	18	6	47%	6%	43	-2.2	.160/.228/.305	.145	.230	20	4	39%	7%	40	-1.3
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	41	47→40	48→55	41	.209/.268/.341	.133	.288	15	14	32%	7%	68	-0.5	.231/.302/.338	.107	.302	9	28	25%	8%	81	+0.4	.241/.322/.332	.091	.312	6	48	22%	9%	85	+0.3
✕Camden Duzenack 2022 · AAA	27	35→37	49→50	50	35	.190/.239/.328	.138	.268	18	9	36%	5%	52	-1.6	.214/.262/.346	.132	.279	14	11	28%	5%	66	-0.6	.215/.267/.343	.129	.269	14	10	25%	5%	65	-0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)