Chris Suero

C Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AA H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#328ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+/ANYM	457	.236/.364/.369	9	20	57	—	.186/.285/.287
2025	21	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	543	.240/.380/.429	21	43	88	—	.197/.313/.332
2026	22	AANYM	499	.201/.349/.395	18	37	74	—	.176/.293/.327
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBNYM	4	.175/.284/.308	0	0	74	0.0
2028PROJ39% MLB	24	MLBNYM	172	.181/.288/.322	5	8	79	0.3
2029PROJ56% MLB	25	MLBNYM	248	.185/.291/.331	7	11	82	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

BB%91

Speed84

Chase%76

ISO72

wRC+61

wOBA53

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 74%

CompsTrey Sweeney (age 23) · Jeter Downs (age 24) · Cooper Bowman (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.175 / .284 / .308

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%10

BABIP241

ISO149

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	DSL Mets 1	—	127	98	20	7	0	1	25	29	4	4	2	204	386	306	692	102	279	23	20	333	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Mets	—	83	64	18	1	1	3	14	18	3	3	0	281	432	469	901	188	333	22	17	396	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	357	294	67	11	2	7	52	82	7	15	6	228	357	350	707	122	287	23	15	325	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	100	83	22	6	1	2	10	19	7	5	5	265	390	434	824	169	323	19	10	374	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	174	136	30	5	0	3	29	53	6	10	1	221	380	324	704	103	325	30	17	329	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	301	242	58	11	1	13	41	86	16	25	7	240	385	455	839	215	310	29	14	375	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	68	60	17	2	0	5	7	18	0	8	0	283	358	567	925	283	316	26	10	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	499	403	81	20	2	18	80	145	12	37	9	201	349	395	744	194	258	29	16	337	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	—	127	105	13	4	0	1	18	35	4	4	2	124	276	190	466	67	174	28	14	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	83	69	14	1	1	2	9	27	3	3	0	203	321	333	654	130	254	33	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	357	312	54	8	2	5	34	109	7	15	6	173	269	260	529	87	234	31	10	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	100	86	20	5	1	2	7	26	7	5	5	233	340	384	724	151	292	26	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	174	143	29	5	0	2	22	64	6	10	1	203	333	280	613	77	321	37	13	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	301	259	50	9	1	11	24	111	16	25	7	193	301	363	664	170	265	37	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	499	425	75	18	2	14	58	177	12	37	9	176	293	327	620	151	248	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	—	127	105	13	4	0	1	18	35	4	4	2	124	276	190	466	67	174	28	14	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	—	127	98	20	7	0	1	25	29	4	4	2	204	386	306	692	102	279	23	20	333	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	83	69	14	1	1	2	9	27	3	3	0	203	321	333	654	130	286	33	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	—	83	64	18	1	1	3	14	18	3	3	0	281	432	469	901	188	333	22	17	396	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	457	399	73	13	3	7	40	135	14	20	11	183	280	283	564	100	253	30	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	457	377	89	17	3	9	62	101	14	20	11	236	364	369	733	133	295	22	14	335	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	543	463	89	15	1	15	52	200	22	43	8	192	304	326	630	134	291	37	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	543	438	105	18	1	21	77	157	22	43	8	240	380	429	809	189	316	29	14	363	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	499	425	75	18	2	14	58	177	12	37	9	176	293	327	620	151	256	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	499	403	81	20	2	18	80	145	12	37	9	201	349	395	744	194	258	29	16	337	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	—	127	104	13	4	0	1	18	35	4	4	2	125	276	192	468	67	174	28	14	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	83	71	14	1	1	2	9	27	3	3	0	197	321	324	645	127	254	33	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	457	400	73	13	3	7	40	135	14	20	11	182	280	282	563	100	247	30	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	543	464	89	15	1	15	52	200	22	43	8	192	304	325	629	134	286	37	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	499	426	75	18	2	14	58	177	12	37	9	176	293	326	619	150	248	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	457	400	73	13	3	7	40	135	14	20	11	182	280	282	563	100	247	30	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	543	464	89	15	1	15	52	200	22	43	8	192	304	325	629	134	286	37	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	499	426	75	18	2	14	58	177	12	37	9	176	293	326	619	150	248	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	2%	608	523	94	19	2	16	64	198	16	27	7	180	288	316	604	136	249	33	11	278	74	-19	+3	-3	+11	+13	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	175	284	308	592	133	241	25	0	273	74	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	39%	445	384	72	14	2	13	47	142	11	20	5	186	293	330	623	144	252	32	11	285	79	-11	+2	-2	+8	+10	0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	56%	445	384	73	14	2	13	47	139	11	20	5	190	296	339	634	148	255	31	11	289	82	-10	+2	-1	+8	+10	0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	64%	445	386	75	15	2	13	46	137	10	20	5	193	297	344	641	150	257	31	10	291	83	-9	+2	-1	+8	+10	1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	66%	445	386	76	15	2	13	46	136	10	19	5	195	297	344	642	149	258	31	10	292	84	-9	+2	-1	+8	+10	1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	67%	445	386	76	15	2	13	46	135	10	17	5	196	296	343	639	147	259	30	10	291	83	-9	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	72%	445	388	75	15	1	13	45	136	9	15	4	193	294	336	630	143	257	31	10	287	80	-10	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	75%	445	388	73	14	1	12	45	138	9	12	4	190	290	328	618	138	255	31	10	282	77	-12	+1	-3	+8	+10	0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	77%	426	371	68	13	1	11	43	134	9	8	3	186	285	318	603	132	252	31	10	276	73	-14	+0	-4	+8	+9	-0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYM	79%	407	356	64	12	1	10	40	130	8	4	2	181	279	305	584	125	247	32	10	269	68	-16	+0	-4	+7	+9	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	39%	172	148	27	5	1	5	18	55	4	8	2	181	288	322	610	141	244	32	10	280	79	-4	+1	-1	+3	+4	0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	56%	248	214	40	8	1	7	26	78	6	11	3	185	291	331	622	146	247	31	10	284	82	-5	+1	-0	+4	+5	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	64%	284	245	47	9	1	9	30	88	7	13	3	188	293	336	628	148	249	31	11	286	83	-6	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	66%	293	254	48	9	1	9	30	90	7	13	3	190	293	336	629	147	250	31	10	287	84	-6	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	67%	297	259	49	9	1	9	30	90	6	12	3	190	292	335	626	144	251	30	10	285	83	-6	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	72%	319	276	52	10	1	9	33	98	7	11	3	188	289	328	617	140	249	31	10	282	80	-7	+1	-2	+6	+7	0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	75%	333	289	53	10	1	9	34	103	7	9	3	185	285	320	606	136	247	31	10	277	77	-9	+1	-2	+6	+7	0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	77%	329	286	53	10	1	9	33	103	7	6	2	181	281	310	591	130	243	31	10	271	73	-11	+0	-3	+6	+7	0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYM	79%	320	279	49	9	1	8	32	102	6	3	2	176	275	298	573	122	239	32	10	264	68	-12	-0	-3	+6	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2595	2250	418	79	9	74	266	807	57	86	24	186	288	328	616	142	249	31	10	279	76	-66	+8	-13	+46	+56	3.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	105	20	2	19	67	202	14	22	6	186	288	330	618	144	249	31	10	279	76	-17	+2	-3	+12	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5867	5071	950	185	22	156	604	1870	147	251	70	187	292	325	617	137	258	32	10	280	76	-106	+13	-20	+74	+90	5.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	562	104	20	2	17	67	207	16	28	8	185	290	319	608	133	254	32	10	280	76	-17	+2	-3	+12	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 499 PAwOBA .331 → .278 (−54)K% 29.1% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.06%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	35.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.03%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	11.69%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	2.13%
Singles /BIP	15.89%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.001	×1.042	16.07%
Doubles /BIP	7.75%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.001	×1.042	6.95%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.001	×1.042	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	6.98%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	5.67%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .331 → .278; ISO .194 → .160; BABIP .258 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 301 PAwOBA .367 → .284 (−84)K% 28.6% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷1.011	×1.310	—	—	37.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.29%	÷1.022	×0.600	—	×1.027	8.01%
HBP% /PA	5.32%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	4.20%
Singles /BIP	21.15%	÷1.021	×0.870	×1.007	×1.027	18.66%
Doubles /BIP	7.05%	÷0.989	×0.780	×1.007	×1.027	5.75%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷1.051	×0.850	×1.007	×1.027	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.073	×0.880	—	×1.027	7.02%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .367 → .284; ISO .215 → .176; BABIP .310 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 174 PAwOBA .327 → .288 (−39)K% 30.5% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.46%	÷1.015	×1.220	—	—	36.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷0.983	×0.700	—	×1.050	12.46%
HBP% /PA	3.45%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	3.08%
Singles /BIP	26.51%	÷0.982	×0.970	×0.970	×1.050	26.69%
Doubles /BIP	6.02%	÷0.941	×0.860	×0.970	×1.050	5.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.911	×0.950	×0.970	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.61%	÷0.990	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.99%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .327 → .288; ISO .103 → .089; BABIP .325 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 357 PAwOBA .321 → .237 (−83)K% 23.0% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.97%	÷0.988	×1.310	—	—	30.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.57%	÷0.973	×0.600	—	×1.042	9.36%
HBP% /PA	1.96%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	1.57%
Singles /BIP	22.17%	÷1.032	×0.870	×0.950	×1.042	18.50%
Doubles /BIP	5.19%	÷1.005	×0.780	×0.950	×1.042	3.99%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷0.929	×0.850	×0.950	×1.042	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	3.30%	÷1.341	×0.880	—	×1.042	2.26%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .237; ISO .122 → .089; BABIP .287 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 100 PAwOBA .364 → .302 (−62)K% 19.0% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.00%	÷0.990	×1.360	—	—	26.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.030	6.90%
HBP% /PA	7.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	5.62%
Singles /BIP	20.31%	÷0.957	×0.920	×0.951	×1.030	19.11%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷0.954	×0.830	×0.951	×1.030	7.99%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.951	×1.030	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷0.826	×0.800	—	×1.030	3.12%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .364 → .302; ISO .169 → .146; BABIP .323 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Mets · 83 PAwOBA .396 → .281 (−115)K% 21.7% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.69%	÷0.949	×1.440	—	—	32.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.87%	÷1.004	×0.620	—	×1.008	10.49%
HBP% /PA	3.61%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.62%
Singles /BIP	28.26%	÷1.046	×0.820	×0.990	×1.008	22.10%
Doubles /BIP	2.17%	÷0.953	×0.720	×0.990	×1.008	1.64%
Triples /BIP	2.17%	÷0.979	×0.720	×0.990	×1.008	1.60%
Home runs /BIP	6.52%	÷1.040	×0.780	—	×1.008	4.93%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 91, 3B 96, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .396 → .281; ISO .188 → .137; BABIP .333 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Mets 1 · 127 PAwOBA .326 → .220 (−106)K% 22.8% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.83%	÷1.010	×1.220	—	—	27.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.69%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×1.008	14.34%
HBP% /PA	3.15%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.22%
Singles /BIP	17.39%	÷1.016	×0.680	×0.968	×1.008	11.35%
Doubles /BIP	10.14%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.968	×1.008	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.968	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.45%	÷0.950	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.72%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 102, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .326 → .220; ISO .102 → .059; BABIP .279 → .174. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Randy Hundley'64-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,797 PA	5.7	3,797	82	12	236*	295*	383*	+68	+0	8.0	8.7
/162	664	14	2	+11.8	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Ron Karkovice'86-'97 * career totals — 12 seasons, 2,948 PA	4.4	2,948	96	24	215*	282*	390*	+52	+0	7.6	8.1
/162	664	22	5	+11.7	+0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.9	2,599	73	85	191	289	333	+46	-13	5.7	5.5
/162	664	19	22	+11.9	-3.3	1.5	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chris Suero (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	178/286/313	135	249	6	9	33%	11%	74	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	36→41	46→50	53→55	41	190/255/315	125	268	15	19	34%	7%	61	-1.5	185/268/313	128	266	15	22	34%	8%	66	-1.1	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39→44	43→45	59→60	44	194/276/302	108	285	11	31	34%	9%	66	-1.1	210/284/328	118	287	11	35	29%	8%	74	-0.5	210/283/330	120	279	11	40	27%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Kenedy Corona 2024 · AA	24	41→42	48→50	54→55	41	211/269/351	141	285	16	24	31%	7%	74	-0.5	207/273/312	105	285	10	24	29%	7%	67	-1.1	202/273/295	93	277	8	27	28%	7%	60	-1.1
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Mikey Perez 2023 · A	23	41→34	44→45	59→60	43	201/280/320	119	275	10	31	29%	7%	72	-0.7	196/276/308	112	286	12	26	33%	8%	68	-1.0	148/246/242	93	219	13	36	36%	8%	40	-1.2
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	41→40	54→60	55	164/295/261	97	258	8	24	35%	14%	66	-1.1	191/307/295	104	295	8	20	33%	12%	77	-0.3	192/310/298	105	297	8	21	33%	12%	77	-0.2
✕Kaden Polcovich 2022 · AA	23	39→41	46→45	54→55	46	195/283/323	128	276	13	17	32%	9%	74	-0.6	200/283/317	117	274	11	17	29%	9%	72	-0.7	190/277/301	111	259	10	19	29%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	41→40	47→50	54→55	44	208/283/351	143	281	14	17	30%	8%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	275	12	17	30%	8%	71	-0.8	173/262/276	103	236	10	19	29%	9%	53	-1.1
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Max Wagner 2024 · AA	22	41→38	46→50	55→50	42	204/275/332	128	291	13	18	33%	8%	72	-0.7	195/261/317	122	302	13	12	37%	7%	63	-1.3	190/255/330	140	291	17	7	39%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	36→39	44→45	53→55	44	182/265/298	116	243	11	20	29%	7%	62	-1.4	190/276/301	111	283	11	20	34%	8%	66	-1.1	149/258/287	138	249	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Ryan Bliss 2024 · AAA	24	45→51	46→50	59→60	44	224/286/356	132	289	12	32	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/299/360	129	304	11	38	26%	8%	87	+0.4	223/291/342	119	294	9	40	25%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Jack Brannigan 2024 · A	23	42	50	54→50	43	209/290/360	151	317	19	19	38%	9%	84	+0.2	195/271/346	151	282	18	14	36%	8%	74	-0.5	175/254/322	147	250	17	12	36%	8%	60	-0.8
✕Brice Matthews 2024 · A	22	45	44→50	54→60	46	211/306/329	118	322	12	22	35%	10%	84	+0.1	217/298/371	154	326	18	30	36%	9%	90	+0.6	208/288/365	156	305	19	33	36%	9%	82	+0.0
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	44→45	55→70	47	217/293/337	119	284	11	29	27%	8%	80	-0.2	222/326/336	114	285	11	41	24%	11%	93	+0.8	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Lolo Sanchez 2022 · A	23	44→45	45	53→55	48	220/295/343	124	262	13	23	21%	8%	82	+0.0	208/283/298	90	252	9	13	20%	8%	68	-1.0	193/271/258	65	233	6	9	19%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Chad Hinshaw 2015 · A	24	44→42	47→45	56→55	39	217/292/359	142	298	14	23	31%	6%	85	+0.2	211/284/312	101	305	8	24	31%	7%	71	-0.8	197/271/276	80	293	6	25	32%	7%	55	-1.0
✕Jason Taylor 2010 · A	22	45→40	45→50	52→55	50	222/296/347	125	272	12	21	23%	9%	83	+0.1	209/261/319	110	272	10	13	26%	6%	63	-1.4	145/173/232	87	187	9	6	28%	3%	9	-1.1

Chris Suero

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps