Jack Brannigan
SS Indianapolis Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+PIT | 341 | .238/.346/.490 | 18 | 12 | 66 | — | .177/.257/.364 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAPIT | 237 | .225/.331/.358 | 5 | 9 | 52 | — | .179/.263/.274 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AA/A+/APIT | 372 | .219/.330/.416 | 13 | 5 | 59 | — | .173/.259/.321 |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBPIT | 46 | .189/.269/.321 | 1 | 1 | 69 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ37% MLB | 27 | MLBPIT | 84 | .191/.271/.323 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 28 | MLBPIT | 106 | .192/.271/.322 | 2 | 1 | 70 | 0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 112 | 95 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 28 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 211 | 330 | 337 | 667 | 126 | 266 | 25 | 13 | 310 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 173 | 147 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 58 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 299 | 391 | 605 | 996 | 306 | 395 | 34 | 12 | 420 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 201 | 162 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 54 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 253 | 398 | 451 | 849 | 198 | 337 | 27 | 16 | 382 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 93 | 79 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 177 | 293 | 405 | 699 | 228 | 244 | 38 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 341 | 290 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 89 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 238 | 346 | 490 | 836 | 252 | 276 | 26 | 12 | 365 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 237 | 204 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 62 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 225 | 331 | 358 | 688 | 132 | 297 | 26 | 11 | 315 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 196 | 162 | 35 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 335 | 352 | 687 | 136 | 281 | 25 | 14 | 308 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 141 | 124 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 53 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 319 | 500 | 819 | 274 | 317 | 38 | 11 | 358 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 16 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 438 | 786 | 1.223 | 429 | 375 | 25 | 6 | 519 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 19 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 263 | 67 | 330 | 1.000 | 74 | 21 | 195 | -48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 112 | 100 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 150 | 241 | 230 | 471 | 80 | 226 | 34 | 9 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 173 | 155 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 76 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 206 | 272 | 400 | 672 | 194 | 299 | 44 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 201 | 172 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 71 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 198 | 313 | 331 | 645 | 134 | 301 | 35 | 11 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 341 | 305 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 113 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 257 | 364 | 621 | 187 | 217 | 33 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 237 | 212 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 80 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 179 | 263 | 274 | 536 | 94 | 261 | 34 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 196 | 170 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 272 | 282 | 555 | 100 | 253 | 30 | 10 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 141 | 129 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 241 | 372 | 613 | 202 | 272 | 46 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 16 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 714 | 1.089 | 429 | 308 | 31 | 6 | 395 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 19 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 158 | 100 | 16 | 97 | -48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 112 | 100 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 150 | 241 | 230 | 471 | 80 | 217 | 34 | 9 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 112 | 95 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 28 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 211 | 330 | 337 | 667 | 126 | 266 | 25 | 13 | 310 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 467 | 406 | 83 | 12 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 183 | 12 | 28 | 3 | 204 | 301 | 374 | 675 | 170 | 313 | 39 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 467 | 388 | 99 | 18 | 4 | 23 | 62 | 147 | 12 | 28 | 3 | 255 | 374 | 500 | 874 | 245 | 341 | 31 | 13 | 382 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 341 | 305 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 113 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 257 | 364 | 621 | 187 | 222 | 33 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 341 | 290 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 89 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 238 | 346 | 490 | 836 | 252 | 276 | 26 | 12 | 365 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 237 | 212 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 80 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 179 | 263 | 274 | 536 | 94 | 264 | 34 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 237 | 204 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 62 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 225 | 331 | 358 | 688 | 132 | 297 | 26 | 11 | 315 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 372 | 329 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 148 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 173 | 259 | 313 | 572 | 140 | 273 | 40 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 372 | 315 | 69 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 120 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 219 | 330 | 416 | 746 | 197 | 301 | 32 | 13 | 330 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 112 | 99 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 152 | 241 | 232 | 473 | 81 | 226 | 34 | 9 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 467 | 408 | 83 | 12 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 183 | 12 | 28 | 3 | 203 | 301 | 373 | 673 | 169 | 300 | 39 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 341 | 305 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 113 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 257 | 364 | 621 | 187 | 217 | 33 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 237 | 211 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 80 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 180 | 263 | 275 | 538 | 95 | 261 | 34 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 372 | 331 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 148 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 172 | 259 | 311 | 570 | 139 | 250 | 40 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 341 | 305 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 113 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 257 | 364 | 621 | 187 | 217 | 33 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 237 | 211 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 80 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 180 | 263 | 275 | 538 | 95 | 261 | 34 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 372 | 331 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 148 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 172 | 259 | 311 | 570 | 139 | 250 | 40 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | PIT | 30% | 380 | 340 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 132 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 190 | 270 | 326 | 596 | 137 | 273 | 35 | 8 | 269 | 69 | -14 | +1 | +2 | +4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | PIT | 30% | 46 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 269 | 321 | 590 | 132 | 274 | 35 | 9 | 267 | 69 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | PIT | 37% | 225 | 201 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 77 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 191 | 271 | 328 | 599 | 137 | 273 | 34 | 8 | 271 | 69 | -8 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | PIT | 42% | 253 | 226 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 86 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 272 | 328 | 600 | 135 | 273 | 34 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -9 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 43% | 263 | 235 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 88 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 272 | 326 | 598 | 133 | 273 | 33 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -10 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | PIT | 37% | 84 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 271 | 323 | 593 | 132 | 274 | 35 | 8 | 269 | 69 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | PIT | 42% | 106 | 94 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 271 | 322 | 594 | 131 | 275 | 34 | 8 | 269 | 70 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 43% | 114 | 102 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 271 | 321 | 592 | 129 | 274 | 33 | 8 | 268 | 69 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 304 | 272 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 103 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 191 | 272 | 324 | 595 | 132 | 274 | 34 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -11 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +7 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 111 | 24 | 4 | 15 | 53 | 220 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 191 | 271 | 323 | 594 | 132 | 274 | 34 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -24 | +1 | +1 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2425 | 2153 | 401 | 80 | 12 | 68 | 204 | 867 | 47 | 72 | 9 | 186 | 271 | 329 | 601 | 143 | 270 | 36 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -33 | +2 | +3 | +10 | +19 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 107 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 55 | 232 | 13 | 19 | 2 | 185 | 271 | 326 | 597 | 140 | 269 | 36 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -24 | +2 | +2 | +7 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 196 PAwOBA .307 → .258 (−49)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.033 | 16.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.033 | 8.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.033 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .307 → .258; ISO .136 → .112; BABIP .281 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAltoona Curve · 141 PAwOBA .348 → .259 (−89)K% 37.6% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.59% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 14.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 9.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 8.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .348 → .259; ISO .274 → .197; BABIP .317 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ABradenton Marauders · 19 PAwOBA .192 → .097 (−94)K% 73.7% → 100.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 73.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 100.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 14.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 100.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 89.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .192 → .097; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP 1.000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 16 PAwOBA .504 → .395 (−109)K% 25.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 4.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 25.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 17.21% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .504 → .395; ISO .429 → .347; BABIP .375 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAltoona Curve · 237 PAwOBA .308 → .245 (−63)K% 26.2% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.16% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.55% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.95% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.83% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.52% | ÷0.891 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.12% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .308 → .245; ISO .132 → .106; BABIP .297 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 341 PAwOBA .357 → .266 (−92)K% 26.1% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.10% | ÷1.029 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.73% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 7.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.92% | ÷1.024 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 13.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.96% | ÷1.106 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.11% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .357 → .266; ISO .252 → .197; BABIP .276 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ABradenton Marauders · 201 PAwOBA .373 → .293 (−80)K% 26.9% → 35.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.87% | ÷1.037 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.92% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.48% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.15% | ÷0.958 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | — | 21.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | — | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.970 | — | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.48% | ÷0.971 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.34% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 92, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .373 → .293; ISO .198 → .154; BABIP .337 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 173 PAwOBA .418 → .291 (−127)K% 33.5% → 43.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.53% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 43.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.14% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.97% | ÷1.016 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 22.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷1.154 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.48% | ÷1.202 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 9.99% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 103, 2B 131, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .418 → .291; ISO .306 → .212; BABIP .395 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).