Carlos Cauro
C Fayetteville Woodpeckers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKHOU | 125 | .255/.339/.400 | 4 | 2 | 41 | — | .191/.250/.296 |
| 2025 | 20 | AHOU | 32 | .231/.375/.615 | 3 | 0 | 79 | — | .179/.281/.429 |
| 2026 | 21 | AHOU | 271 | .255/.380/.386 | 7 | 4 | 76 | — | .216/.316/.323 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBHOU | 381 | .212/.296/.337 | 9 | 6 | 80 | 0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 23 | MLBHOU | 86 | .218/.301/.348 | 2 | 2 | 83 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ58% MLB | 24 | MLBHOU | 163 | .221/.303/.355 | 4 | 3 | 86 | 0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 47
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | — | 82 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 321 | 221 | 542 | 29 | 271 | 26 | 13 | 264 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | — | 180 | 144 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 312 | 447 | 521 | 968 | 208 | 406 | 24 | 16 | 428 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 125 | 110 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 255 | 339 | 400 | 739 | 145 | 312 | 24 | 10 | 331 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 32 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 375 | 615 | 990 | 385 | 273 | 38 | 19 | 423 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 220 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 63 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 255 | 380 | 386 | 766 | 132 | 316 | 23 | 14 | 346 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 82 | 71 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 127 | 235 | 141 | 375 | 14 | 182 | 32 | 10 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 180 | 152 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 307 | 289 | 597 | 105 | 240 | 29 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 125 | 115 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 191 | 250 | 296 | 546 | 104 | 257 | 34 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 32 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 281 | 429 | 710 | 250 | 239 | 50 | 12 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 232 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 86 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 216 | 316 | 323 | 639 | 108 | 287 | 32 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 82 | 71 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 127 | 235 | 141 | 375 | 14 | 196 | 32 | 10 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL HOU Blue | — | 82 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 321 | 221 | 542 | 29 | 271 | 26 | 13 | 264 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 180 | 152 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 307 | 289 | 597 | 105 | 255 | 29 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros Blue | — | 180 | 144 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 312 | 447 | 521 | 968 | 208 | 406 | 24 | 16 | 428 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 125 | 115 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 191 | 250 | 296 | 546 | 104 | 271 | 34 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 125 | 110 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 255 | 339 | 400 | 739 | 145 | 312 | 24 | 10 | 331 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 32 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 281 | 429 | 710 | 250 | 300 | 50 | 12 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 32 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 375 | 615 | 990 | 385 | 273 | 38 | 19 | 423 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 232 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 86 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 216 | 316 | 323 | 639 | 108 | 303 | 32 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 220 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 63 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 255 | 380 | 386 | 766 | 132 | 316 | 23 | 14 | 346 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 82 | 72 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 235 | 139 | 373 | 14 | 182 | 32 | 10 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 180 | 151 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 307 | 291 | 599 | 106 | 240 | 29 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 125 | 115 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 191 | 250 | 296 | 546 | 104 | 257 | 34 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 32 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 281 | 429 | 710 | 250 | 239 | 50 | 12 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 235 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 86 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 213 | 316 | 319 | 635 | 106 | 287 | 32 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 125 | 115 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 191 | 250 | 296 | 546 | 104 | 257 | 34 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 32 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 281 | 429 | 710 | 250 | 239 | 50 | 12 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 235 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 86 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 213 | 316 | 319 | 635 | 106 | 287 | 32 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 381 | 338 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 102 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 212 | 296 | 337 | 632 | 124 | 274 | 27 | 9 | 287 | 80 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | HOU | 43% | 199 | 176 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 53 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 299 | 346 | 645 | 130 | 276 | 27 | 9 | 291 | 83 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | HOU | 58% | 281 | 249 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 73 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 301 | 352 | 654 | 134 | 277 | 26 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 65% | 337 | 298 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 87 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 220 | 303 | 356 | 659 | 136 | 278 | 26 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 68% | 370 | 328 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 95 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 222 | 303 | 359 | 662 | 137 | 279 | 26 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 68% | 383 | 340 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 98 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 222 | 303 | 358 | 662 | 137 | 279 | 26 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 68% | 386 | 343 | 76 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 100 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 220 | 301 | 354 | 655 | 134 | 278 | 26 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 66% | 380 | 338 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 99 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 217 | 298 | 347 | 645 | 130 | 276 | 26 | 9 | 292 | 83 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 66% | 370 | 329 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 98 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 214 | 295 | 339 | 634 | 125 | 274 | 26 | 9 | 287 | 80 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +7 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | HOU | 65% | 338 | 301 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 210 | 290 | 329 | 619 | 119 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -10 | -1 | -3 | +6 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | HOU | 43% | 86 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 301 | 348 | 649 | 130 | 280 | 27 | 9 | 293 | 83 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | HOU | 58% | 163 | 145 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 303 | 355 | 658 | 134 | 282 | 26 | 9 | 297 | 86 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | HOU | 65% | 218 | 193 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 56 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 223 | 305 | 359 | 663 | 136 | 282 | 26 | 9 | 299 | 87 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 68% | 252 | 224 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 65 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 224 | 306 | 361 | 666 | 137 | 283 | 26 | 9 | 300 | 88 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 68% | 260 | 231 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 67 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 224 | 305 | 361 | 666 | 137 | 283 | 26 | 9 | 300 | 88 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 68% | 262 | 233 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 68 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 303 | 356 | 659 | 134 | 282 | 26 | 9 | 297 | 86 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 66% | 252 | 224 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 66 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 300 | 349 | 650 | 130 | 280 | 26 | 9 | 293 | 83 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 66% | 243 | 216 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 64 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 216 | 297 | 341 | 638 | 125 | 278 | 26 | 9 | 289 | 80 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | HOU | 65% | 220 | 196 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 59 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 212 | 292 | 331 | 623 | 119 | 275 | 27 | 9 | 283 | 76 | -6 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1956 | 1739 | 383 | 72 | 8 | 47 | 178 | 511 | 24 | 32 | 15 | 220 | 301 | 352 | 653 | 132 | 283 | 26 | 9 | 295 | 80 | -36 | +0 | -5 | +35 | +42 | 3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 128 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 59 | 170 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 221 | 302 | 356 | 659 | 135 | 284 | 26 | 9 | 295 | 80 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3895 | 3443 | 738 | 127 | 15 | 95 | 357 | 1060 | 61 | 59 | 33 | 214 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 128 | 278 | 27 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -61 | +0 | -7 | +57 | +69 | 6.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 124 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 60 | 177 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 216 | 301 | 346 | 647 | 130 | 280 | 27 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 271 PAwOBA .344 → .280 (−64)K% 23.2% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.25% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×1.015 | 24.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.015 | 4.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .344 → .280; ISO .132 → .105; BABIP .316 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 32 PAwOBA .411 → .285 (−126)K% 37.5% → 51.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 51.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.072 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 12.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 13.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.035 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.005 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 17.57% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .411 → .285; ISO .385 → .262; BABIP .273 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Astros · 125 PAwOBA .322 → .229 (−93)K% 24.0% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.00% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.80% | ÷1.033 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 21.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 3.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.54% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 87, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .322 → .229; ISO .145 → .096; BABIP .312 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 180 PAwOBA .419 → .263 (−156)K% 23.9% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.89% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.11% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 11.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.73% | ÷1.034 | ×0.680 | ×0.963 | ×1.008 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.88% | ÷1.077 | ×0.600 | ×0.963 | ×1.008 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.600 | ×0.963 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.94% | ÷0.950 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.96% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 115, 3B 106, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .419 → .263; ISO .208 → .109; BABIP .406 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL HOU Blue · 82 PAwOBA .262 → .179 (−83)K% 25.6% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.61% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.41% | ÷1.027 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.40% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | ×0.971 | ×1.022 | 16.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×1.022 | 2.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .262 → .179; ISO .029 → .017; BABIP .271 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).