Christian Cerda — OGILVIE

Christian CerdaC Reno Aces

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION163 act + 157 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .282 / .307

PA157

HR3

K%25

BB%10

BABIP255

ISO107

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$33M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	164	144	21	5	2	1	14	38	6	5	3	146	250	229	479	83	190	23	9	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	164	133	29	9	2	1	25	25	6	5	3	218	366	338	704	120	262	15	15	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	97	18	5	0	2	14	28	0	5	0	186	288	299	587	113	235	25	12	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	88	24	8	0	2	23	19	0	5	0	273	423	432	855	159	324	17	21	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	3 teams	—	488	411	78	16	1	11	65	134	6	1	0	190	309	314	623	124	246	27	13	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	3 teams	—	488	379	94	20	1	12	97	101	6	1	0	248	409	401	810	153	301	21	20	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	2 teams	—	420	373	64	10	0	5	40	121	3	5	3	172	257	239	496	67	235	29	10	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	2 teams	—	420	342	81	14	0	5	71	84	3	5	3	237	373	322	694	85	296	20	17	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	336	57	10	0	10	36	92	2	1	0	170	254	289	543	119	197	24	9	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	321	76	14	0	18	51	67	2	1	0	237	345	449	794	212	241	17	13	345	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AAA	ARI	—	163	141	27	7	0	3	14	43	2	0	0	191	274	305	579	113	245	26	9	259	56	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
YTD	23	AAA	ARI	—	163	135	32	9	0	4	20	33	2	0	0	237	344	393	737	156	277	20	12	322	105	+1	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.9
ROS	23	AAA	ARI	10%	157	140	28	6	0	3	15	40	1	1	0	200	282	307	589	107	248	25	10	269	64	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	ARI	10%	16	14	3	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	214	312	286	598	71	250	25	12	266	61	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	AAA	ARI	—	179	155	30	8	0	3	16	47	2	0	0	194	277	303	581	110	250	26	9	260	57	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
TOT	23	AAA	ARI	—	320	281	55	13	0	6	29	83	3	1	0	196	278	306	584	110	250	26	9	264	60	-14	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	ARI	33%	454	404	84	17	1	11	43	112	4	2	1	208	290	337	627	129	253	25	9	279	72	-14	+0	+1	+8	+13	0.7
2028	25	MLB	ARI	46%	483	430	90	18	1	12	46	117	4	2	1	209	292	340	631	130	256	24	10	285	76	-13	+0	+1	+9	+14	1.0
2029	26	MLB	ARI	54%	498	443	94	19	1	13	48	120	4	2	1	212	295	348	643	135	258	24	10	288	79	-12	+0	+1	+9	+14	1.2
2030	27	MLB	ARI	57%	503	445	95	19	1	13	49	122	4	2	1	213	297	348	646	135	259	24	10	289	79	-12	+0	+1	+9	+14	1.2
2031	28	MLB	ARI	59%	502	444	95	19	1	13	49	122	4	2	1	214	298	349	647	135	258	24	10	288	79	-12	+0	-0	+9	+14	1.1
2032	29	MLB	ARI	58%	494	439	91	18	1	12	48	121	4	2	1	207	291	335	626	128	257	24	10	286	77	-13	+0	-1	+9	+14	0.9
2033	30	MLB	ARI	58%	484	430	90	18	1	12	47	120	4	2	1	209	293	340	633	130	256	25	10	283	75	-14	+0	-2	+9	+14	0.7
2034	31	MLB	ARI	58%	457	405	82	16	0	11	45	115	4	1	0	202	289	323	612	121	254	25	10	279	72	-15	+0	-2	+8	+13	0.5
2035	32	MLB	ARI	63%	426	378	76	15	0	10	42	108	3	1	0	201	286	320	606	119	250	25	10	274	68	-16	+0	-3	+8	+12	0.1
2036	33	MLB	ARI	67%	386	342	66	13	0	8	38	100	3	1	0	193	279	301	581	108	246	26	10	267	63	-16	+0	-4	+7	+11	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	ARI	33%	150	134	28	6	0	4	14	37	1	1	0	209	289	343	632	134	255	25	9	276	69	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2028	25	MLB	ARI	46%	224	199	42	8	0	6	21	54	2	1	0	211	293	342	635	131	259	24	9	281	74	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2029	26	MLB	ARI	54%	269	239	50	10	0	7	26	65	2	1	0	209	292	339	631	130	260	24	10	284	76	-7	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2030	27	MLB	ARI	57%	286	254	54	11	1	7	28	69	2	1	0	213	296	346	642	134	261	24	10	285	77	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2031	28	MLB	ARI	59%	294	261	55	11	0	8	29	71	2	1	0	211	295	345	639	134	260	24	10	284	76	-8	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.6
2032	29	MLB	ARI	58%	287	255	53	11	0	7	28	70	2	1	0	208	291	333	625	125	260	24	10	282	74	-8	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.5
2033	30	MLB	ARI	58%	280	249	51	10	0	7	27	69	2	1	0	205	288	329	617	124	258	25	10	280	72	-9	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2034	31	MLB	ARI	58%	264	234	48	10	0	6	26	66	2	1	0	205	290	325	615	120	256	25	10	276	69	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
2035	32	MLB	ARI	63%	269	239	47	9	0	6	26	68	2	1	0	197	281	310	591	113	252	25	10	270	65	-11	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.0
2036	33	MLB	ARI	67%	260	231	46	9	0	6	25	68	2	1	0	199	283	316	599	117	248	26	10	264	60	-12	+0	-3	+5	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2599	2309	477	96	1	64	252	641	19	10	0	207	290	332	622	126	256	25	10	279	71	-84	+2	-6	+46	+74	3.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	119	24	0	16	63	160	5	3	0	206	290	331	621	125	255	25	10	279	71	-21	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	6411	5661	1129	224	10	147	639	1610	56	35	13	199	287	320	607	121	249	25	10	274	68	-234	+2	-9	+114	+182	5.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	115	23	1	15	65	163	6	4	1	200	289	322	611	122	250	25	10	274	68	-24	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	164	133	29	9	2	1	25	25	6	5	3	218	366	338	704	120	262	15	15	330	111	+2	-0	—	—	+5	0.7
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	88	24	8	0	2	23	19	0	5	0	273	423	432	855	159	324	17	21	385	153	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.1
2023	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	168	127	30	6	0	6	38	35	1	0	0	236	416	425	841	189	273	21	23	379	148	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2023	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	302	238	60	14	1	5	55	61	5	1	0	252	403	382	785	130	312	20	18	358	132	+11	+0	—	—	+9	2.0
2023	20	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	18	14	4	0	0	1	4	5	0	0	0	286	444	500	944	214	375	28	22	421	181	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	66	50	10	3	0	0	16	22	0	1	0	200	394	260	654	60	357	33	24	323	106	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	21	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	354	292	71	11	0	5	55	62	3	4	3	243	369	332	701	89	288	18	16	325	107	+3	-0	—	—	+10	1.2
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	321	76	14	0	18	51	67	2	1	0	237	345	449	794	212	241	17	13	345	123	+10	+0	—	—	+11	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,616	63	10	207	288	332	+47	+12	3.9	3.8
	/162	664	16	3	207	288	332	+11.9	+3.0	1.0	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Cerda (OGILVIE)	23	30→40	35→45	30	60	196/278/306	110	250	6	1	26%	9%	60	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→37	47→55	37→40	46	206/268/342	136	253	15	4	25%	7%	68	-0.5	206/284/361	155	265	18	3	28%	9%	80	+0.4	187/284/370	183	237	21	4	30%	10%	81	+0.3
✕Niko Vasquez 2012 · AA	23	39→41	44→50	40→45	45	195/268/311	116	267	12	3	30%	8%	60	-1.0	203/267/306	103	269	8	5	26%	8%	58	-1.2	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Orlando Mercado 2009 · AA	24	44	42→45	39→40	57	213/305/313	101	245	10	4	18%	11%	77	+0.1	227/295/303	76	264	6	4	15%	8%	69	-0.4	228/290/297	69	263	5	2	15%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Wyatt Toregas 2007 · AA	24	46→40	42→50	37→40	44	226/278/330	104	282	9	3	23%	6%	68	-0.5	226/279/349	123	266	14	4	20%	6%	74	-0.1	220/274/342	122	251	15	2	19%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Kevin Ahrens 2012 · A	23	39→46	43→45	38→40	44	198/259/310	111	257	11	2	27%	7%	56	-1.3	199/263/299	100	263	9	2	26%	8%	54	-1.4	214/270/332	118	266	11	3	23%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Matt Kennelly 2012 · AA	23	44	39→40	36→40	43	215/268/299	84	286	7	3	27%	6%	56	-1.3	219/270/298	79	274	5	6	21%	6%	56	-1.3	212/267/261	49	263	1	2	19%	6%	42	-1.1
✕Michael Paez 2019 · A	24	43→42	43→45	38→40	47	210/286/321	110	274	10	5	26%	8%	70	-0.3	207/272/298	91	259	7	5	22%	7%	58	-1.2	188/251/259	71	225	5	0	18%	6%	36	-1.6
✕Juremi Profar 2019 · AA	23	44→50	42→45	36→30	42	217/251/315	98	249	11	3	19%	4%	52	-1.6	221/263/322	101	266	10	4	20%	5%	59	-1.1	223/265/317	94	268	8	0	19%	5%	56	-1.0
✕Jakson Reetz 2019 · A	23	41→31	40→60	39→45	43	199/274/285	87	282	8	5	31%	7%	56	-1.3	198/277/317	119	290	13	5	34%	7%	66	-0.6	196/276/392	196	242	25	4	30%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Tyler Ogle 2014 · A	23	45→44	47→50	39→30	55	226/316/359	133	261	15	5	20%	10%	93	+1.3	219/299/371	152	267	18	3	25%	9%	89	+0.9	206/284/368	162	250	21	0	26%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Ty Ross 2015 · A	23	42→41	41→40	36→30	44	208/261/306	98	258	9	3	23%	6%	55	-1.4	203/252/292	89	268	7	3	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/239/269	78	256	6	0	26%	5%	34	-1.4
✕Adam Donachie 2007 · AA	23	46	45	40→30	48	228/295/353	125	289	13	3	25%	8%	82	+0.5	200/266/307	107	274	12	3	29%	8%	58	-1.2	179/249/276	98	248	11	0	31%	8%	40	-1.3
✕Anderson Hidalgo 2012 · A	23	48	41→45	35→50	42	232/281/340	108	301	8	3	25%	6%	72	-0.2	206/259/297	91	274	7	4	26%	6%	52	-1.6	172/228/242	70	225	5	1	25%	5%	23	-1.9
✕Deivy Grullón 2018 · AA	22	44→42	44→55	38→30	37	220/255/336	116	297	12	2	30%	4%	59	-1.1	233/277/398	165	310	22	3	31%	6%	86	+0.8	216/265/392	177	286	27	1	34%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	39	46→45	42→45	52	198/293/324	126	277	14	6	32%	12%	75	-0.0	179/260/273	94	259	9	6	32%	9%	47	-1.9	150/237/225	75	215	8	4	32%	9%	24	-1.2
✕Travis Harrison 2016 · AA	23	45→48	39→40	37→45	46	213/290/302	89	294	5	4	28%	8%	67	-0.5	184/268/265	81	282	5	9	33%	8%	49	-1.8	157/249/227	71	251	5	10	36%	9%	29	-2.2
✕James Guerrero 2007 · A	23	43→46	39→40	39→45	53	204/284/288	84	238	6	6	17%	9%	61	-1.0	206/293/291	85	259	6	8	21%	10%	66	-0.6	196/294/272	75	250	5	8	22%	11%	59	-0.5
✕Dante Bichette Jr. 2016 · AA	23	42→49	41→45	40	41	207/258/303	95	278	8	2	28%	6%	53	-1.5	225/284/327	102	292	9	4	25%	7%	70	-0.3	237/294/332	95	297	8	3	22%	7%	72	-0.1
✕David Urias 2008 · AAA	23	43	39→40	37→45	37	211/243/292	81	265	7	6	23%	3%	43	-2.2	236/269/312	76	286	4	9	18%	4%	58	-1.2	290/316/372	82	335	7	6	15%	3%	90	+0.4
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	42→40	41	202/261/332	130	266	15	4	30%	6%	63	-0.9	213/265/319	106	304	11	5	32%	6%	60	-1.0	194/242/263	69	292	8	0	35%	6%	31	-0.9