Christian Cerda — OGILVIE

Christian CerdaC Reno Aces

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION234 act + 27 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP262

ISO160

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	164	133	29	9	2	1	25	25	6	5	3	218	366	338	704	120	262	15	15	330	109	+2	-0	—	—	+4	0.5
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	88	24	8	0	2	23	19	0	5	0	273	423	432	855	159	324	17	21	385	147	+6	+1	—	—	+2	1.0
2023	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	168	127	30	6	0	6	38	35	1	0	0	236	416	425	841	189	273	21	23	379	143	+9	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2023	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	302	238	60	14	1	5	55	61	5	1	0	252	403	382	785	130	312	20	18	358	129	+10	+0	—	—	+7	1.7
2023	20	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	18	14	4	0	0	1	4	5	0	0	0	286	444	500	944	214	375	28	22	421	171	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2024	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	66	50	10	3	0	0	16	22	0	1	0	200	394	260	654	60	357	33	24	323	105	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	21	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	354	292	71	11	0	5	55	62	3	4	3	243	369	332	701	89	288	18	16	325	106	+2	-0	—	—	+8	1.0
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	321	76	14	0	18	51	67	2	1	0	237	345	449	794	212	241	17	13	345	120	+9	+0	—	—	+8	1.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	164	143	22	6	2	1	15	37	6	5	3	154	262	245	507	91	190	23	9	219	34	-13	-0	—	—	+4	-1.0
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	97	18	5	0	2	14	28	0	5	0	186	288	299	587	113	240	25	12	268	68	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	20	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	168	142	26	5	0	5	23	50	1	0	0	183	301	324	625	141	227	30	14	284	78	-4	+0	—	—	+4	-0.1
2023	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	302	253	50	11	1	5	40	80	5	1	0	198	319	308	627	111	252	26	13	279	75	-9	+0	—	—	+7	-0.2
2024	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	66	55	10	3	0	0	11	26	0	1	0	182	318	236	555	55	338	39	17	258	61	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	21	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	354	315	57	8	0	5	32	90	3	4	3	181	263	254	517	73	226	25	9	232	43	-24	-0	—	—	+8	-1.7
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	337	62	11	0	11	35	84	2	1	0	184	265	315	579	131	197	22	9	253	57	-19	+0	—	—	+8	-1.1
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	164	143	22	6	2	1	15	37	6	5	3	154	262	245	507	91	200	23	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	—	164	133	29	9	2	1	25	25	6	5	3	218	366	338	704	120	262	15	15	330	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	97	18	5	0	2	14	28	0	5	0	186	288	299	587	113	235	25	12	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	88	24	8	0	2	23	19	0	5	0	273	423	432	855	159	324	17	21	385	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	488	411	78	16	1	10	65	135	6	1	0	190	309	307	616	117	250	28	13	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	488	379	94	20	1	12	97	101	6	1	0	248	409	401	810	153	301	21	20	368	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	420	371	66	10	0	5	42	116	3	5	3	178	267	245	512	67	240	28	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	420	342	81	14	0	5	71	84	3	5	3	237	373	322	694	85	296	20	17	324	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	337	62	11	0	11	35	84	2	1	0	184	265	315	579	131	206	22	9	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	321	76	14	0	18	51	67	2	1	0	237	345	449	794	212	241	17	13	345	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	164	142	22	6	2	1	15	37	6	5	3	155	262	246	509	92	190	23	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	112	97	18	5	0	2	14	28	0	5	0	186	288	299	587	113	240	25	12	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	488	414	78	16	1	10	65	135	6	1	0	188	309	304	613	116	243	28	13	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	420	372	66	10	0	5	42	116	3	5	3	177	267	245	511	67	244	28	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	343	62	11	0	11	35	84	2	1	0	181	265	309	574	128	197	22	9	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	488	414	78	16	1	10	65	135	6	1	0	188	309	304	613	116	243	28	13	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	420	372	66	10	0	5	42	116	3	5	3	177	267	245	511	67	244	28	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	383	343	62	11	0	11	35	84	2	1	0	181	265	309	574	128	197	22	9	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	ARI	—	234	206	41	9	0	4	19	67	3	0	0	199	276	301	577	102	268	29	8	251	56	-12	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA RAW	ARI	—	234	198	48	11	0	5	27	52	3	0	0	242	342	374	716	131	299	22	12	319	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AAA MLE	ARI	10%	27	25	5	1	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	200	259	360	619	160	257	26	7	271	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	23	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						262	33	0	266	69	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	ARI	—	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0							33	0	266	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	AAA MLE	ARI	—	261	231	46	10	0	5	21	74	3	0	0	199	275	307	582	108	265	28	8	253	57	-13	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	33%	454	405	84	16	1	10	42	114	4	2	1	207	288	326	614	119	260	25	9	279	75	-13	+0	+1	+8	+10	0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	46%	483	431	90	17	1	11	45	119	4	2	1	209	290	329	619	121	262	25	9	285	79	-12	+0	+1	+9	+10	0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	498	443	94	18	1	12	47	122	5	2	1	212	295	339	634	126	264	24	9	288	81	-11	+0	+1	+9	+11	0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	503	445	95	18	1	12	48	123	5	2	1	213	297	339	637	126	264	24	10	289	82	-11	+0	+1	+9	+11	1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	59%	502	444	95	18	1	12	48	124	5	2	1	214	298	340	638	126	264	25	10	288	81	-11	+0	-0	+9	+11	0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	58%	494	439	93	18	1	12	47	123	5	2	1	212	295	339	635	128	263	25	10	286	80	-12	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	58%	484	430	90	17	1	11	47	122	4	1	1	209	293	330	623	121	261	25	10	283	78	-13	-0	-2	+9	+10	0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	58%	457	406	83	16	0	10	44	116	4	1	0	204	289	318	606	113	259	25	10	279	75	-14	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	63%	426	378	75	14	0	9	41	110	4	1	0	198	284	307	591	108	256	26	10	274	71	-14	+0	-3	+8	+9	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	33%	150	134	28	6	0	3	14	38	1	1	0	209	289	321	609	112	264	25	9	274	75	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	46%	224	199	43	9	0	5	21	55	2	1	0	216	297	337	634	121	267	25	9	280	79	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	269	239	51	10	1	6	25	66	3	1	0	213	296	339	635	126	269	25	9	283	81	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	286	254	56	11	1	7	27	70	3	1	0	220	303	354	657	134	269	24	9	284	82	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	59%	294	261	56	11	1	7	28	73	3	1	0	215	298	345	643	130	268	25	10	283	81	-7	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	58%	287	254	54	11	0	7	28	71	3	1	0	213	298	339	637	126	267	25	10	281	80	-7	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	58%	280	248	52	11	0	6	27	70	3	1	0	210	295	327	622	117	266	25	10	278	78	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	58%	264	235	49	10	0	6	25	67	2	1	0	209	290	328	618	119	263	25	9	274	75	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	63%	269	239	48	10	0	5	26	69	2	1	0	201	285	305	590	105	260	26	10	269	71	-9	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2326	2066	437	89	3	52	221	580	22	9	0	212	294	333	628	121	267	25	10	278	73	-60	+2	-3	+42	+50	3.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	123	25	1	15	62	162	6	3	0	213	296	338	634	125	268	25	10	278	73	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5895	5205	1050	201	10	129	582	1480	57	32	13	202	289	319	608	117	254	25	10	276	73	-112	+0	-5	+77	+94	5.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	115	22	1	14	64	163	6	4	1	200	287	315	603	115	252	25	10	276	73	-17	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.5	2,355	55	8	211	291	334	+42	+10	4.5	4.2
/162	664	16	2	+11.9	+2.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Cerda (OGILVIE)	23	30→40	35→45	30	60	200/281/307	107	257	6	1	26%	9%	69	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→37	47→55	37→40	45	205/268/342	138	254	15	4	26%	7%	72	-0.7	205/283/350	145	268	16	3	28%	9%	80	-0.2	183/280/352	170	235	19	4	30%	10%	78	-0.2
✕Orlando Mercado 2009 · AA	24	44	42→45	39→40	57	213/306/312	99	245	10	4	17%	11%	80	-0.2	231/299/303	72	267	5	4	14%	8%	74	-0.6	235/297/297	62	270	4	2	14%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Tyler Ogle 2014 · A	23	45→43	46→50	39→30	55	222/315/348	126	261	13	5	20%	10%	91	+0.7	219/297/362	143	270	17	3	24%	9%	88	+0.4	208/284/360	152	255	19	0	26%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Wyatt Toregas 2007 · AA	24	46→40	41→45	37→40	44	226/278/328	102	282	9	3	23%	6%	72	-0.7	224/277/338	114	264	12	4	20%	6%	74	-0.6	212/266/326	114	243	14	1	19%	5%	66	-0.5
✕Niko Vasquez 2012 · AA	23	39→41	44→50	40→45	45	196/268/310	114	267	11	3	30%	8%	64	-1.3	202/266/306	104	266	8	5	26%	7%	62	-1.4	221/278/353	132	287	16	6	28%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Jakson Reetz 2019 · A	23	41→33	40→55	39→45	43	198/274/287	88	281	8	5	30%	7%	61	-1.5	198/277/315	117	286	12	5	33%	7%	70	-0.9	193/274/380	187	243	23	4	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Adam Donachie 2007 · AA	23	46	45	40→30	48	228/295/351	124	288	13	3	25%	8%	83	+0.1	200/267/303	103	270	11	3	28%	8%	62	-1.4	181/251/272	91	247	9	0	29%	8%	46	-1.3
✕Michael Paez 2019 · A	24	43	43→40	37→40	46	212/283/323	111	273	10	5	25%	8%	73	-0.6	207/269/296	89	259	7	5	22%	7%	61	-1.5	187/247/251	64	226	4	0	18%	6%	39	-1.8
✕Matt Kennelly 2012 · AA	23	44	39→40	36→40	43	215/267/294	79	283	7	3	26%	6%	59	-1.6	222/275/298	76	275	4	6	20%	6%	63	-1.4	218/274/265	48	268	1	2	18%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	42→40	42	204/265/335	132	265	15	4	29%	7%	69	-0.9	214/269/319	105	302	10	5	31%	6%	66	-1.1	199/250/262	63	298	6	0	34%	6%	42	-0.9
✕Jack Mayfield 2015 · A	24	44→46	43→55	37→50	42	218/267/330	111	277	9	5	24%	5%	68	-1.0	220/266/346	126	270	14	6	24%	5%	72	-0.7	221/268/397	176	255	22	7	23%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Travis Harrison 2016 · AA	23	46→49	39→40	37→45	48	215/295/307	92	292	5	4	26%	8%	74	-0.6	191/275/275	84	282	5	9	31%	8%	59	-1.6	168/258/243	76	256	5	10	33%	9%	45	-1.9
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	39	45	42→45	51	196/292/318	122	278	13	6	32%	12%	76	-0.4	179/261/272	93	255	9	6	31%	9%	53	-2.1	154/237/226	72	219	7	4	31%	9%	32	-1.3
✕Ian Rice 2018 · AA	24	39→40	50	41→30	50	207/291/358	151	264	19	3	29%	10%	84	+0.2	201/284/314	113	282	12	3	31%	9%	72	-0.7	184/273/274	91	266	9	1	32%	9%	57	-0.9
✕Pedro Pagés 2022 · A	23	43→45	43→50	42→40	42	211/278/315	104	301	11	4	32%	7%	69	-0.9	213/277/334	121	292	13	4	30%	7%	73	-0.6	227/286/364	137	285	17	2	26%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Caleb Joseph 2011 · AA	25	44→49	44→50	36→40	43	219/262/333	114	256	13	3	20%	5%	67	-1.1	226/273/340	114	267	12	5	20%	6%	72	-0.7	227/272/366	139	268	16	1	22%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Renae Martinez 2018 · A	24	45→32	44→45	40	44	225/279/335	110	276	12	5	23%	6%	74	-0.6	214/274/321	107	285	10	3	27%	6%	69	-0.9	194/260/302	108	265	11	2	30%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Anderson Hidalgo 2012 · A	23	49	41→45	35→50	42	233/282/339	105	300	8	3	24%	6%	75	-0.5	211/264/302	91	277	7	4	25%	6%	60	-1.6	186/239/256	70	241	5	1	24%	5%	39	-1.7
✕Jett Bandy 2015 · AA	25	44	46→50	38→45	44	221/282/348	126	254	14	4	19%	5%	78	-0.3	224/282/357	133	266	15	4	22%	5%	80	-0.1	215/279/349	134	253	17	4	22%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Mark Wagner 2007 · A	23	47→52	42→50	40→30	48	227/286/340	113	266	9	3	18%	7%	77	-0.3	226/290/361	135	263	13	2	19%	8%	84	+0.1	218/286/355	136	253	13	0	19%	8%	80	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps