Christian Cerda — OGILVIE

Christian CerdaC Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2029

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .291 / .326

PA320

HR8

K%26

BB%10

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗40

PWR

35↗45

SPD

30→30

FLD

40↗55

EYE

55↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.6	$15M	+$14M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.5	$14M	+$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.2	$12M	+$8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.9	$5M	+$0.6M
Totals		$13M		$76M	+$63M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	164	144	21	5	2	1	14	37	6	5	3	.146	.250	.229	.479	.083	.189	23	9	.217	24	-14	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.7
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	112	97	18	5	0	2	14	28	0	5	0	.186	.288	.299	.587	.113	.235	25	12	.266	62	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2023	20	A	3 teams	488	412	80	16	1	11	64	136	6	1	0	.194	.311	.318	.629	.124	.255	28	13	.283	74	-14	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.9
2024	21	A+	2 teams	420	371	65	10	0	5	42	119	3	5	3	.175	.264	.243	.507	.067	.239	28	10	.234	37	-30	-0	+0	+8	+12	-1.1
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	383	336	60	10	0	12	36	90	2	1	0	.179	.262	.315	.578	.137	.201	23	9	.256	54	-20	+0	+0	+7	+11	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	ARI	320	283	59	11	0	8	32	83	2	2	1	.208	.293	.332	.626	.124	.263	26	10	.283	75	-9	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 8%	ARI	440	389	83	15	1	11	45	112	3	3	1	.213	.300	.342	.642	.129	.266	25	10	.291	81	-10	+0	+1	+8	+12	1.2
2028	25	MLB 17%	ARI	474	419	91	16	1	13	49	119	3	3	1	.217	.304	.353	.657	.136	.269	25	10	.297	85	-8	+0	+1	+8	+13	1.5
2029	26	MLB 25%	ARI	493	435	94	17	1	13	51	123	4	4	1	.216	.304	.349	.654	.133	.271	25	10	.300	88	-7	+0	+1	+9	+14	1.7
2030	27	MLB 35%	ARI	500	439	97	18	1	14	53	125	4	3	1	.221	.310	.362	.673	.141	.271	25	11	.300	88	-7	+0	+1	+9	+14	1.7
2031	28	MLB 40%	ARI	499	439	95	17	1	13	53	125	4	3	1	.216	.306	.349	.655	.132	.271	25	11	.299	87	-7	+0	-0	+9	+14	1.6
2032	29	MLB 44%	ARI	492	433	94	17	1	13	52	125	4	2	0	.217	.307	.351	.658	.134	.270	25	11	.297	86	-8	+0	-1	+9	+14	1.5
2033	30	MLB 47%	ARI	483	426	91	16	1	13	51	124	3	1	0	.214	.302	.347	.650	.134	.268	26	11	.294	83	-9	+0	-2	+9	+14	1.2
2034	31	MLB 50%	ARI	457	402	84	15	1	11	49	120	3	0	0	.209	.300	.333	.633	.124	.267	26	11	.290	80	-10	+0	-2	+8	+13	0.9
2035	32	MLB 58%	ARI	426	375	78	14	1	10	45	114	3	0	0	.208	.298	.331	.629	.123	.265	27	11	.286	77	-11	+0	-3	+8	+12	0.6
2036	33	MLB 69%	ARI	386	340	69	12	1	9	41	106	2	0	0	.203	.292	.324	.616	.121	.263	27	11	.280	73	-12	+0	-4	+7	+11	0.2
2037	34	MLB 79%	ARI	333	293	57	10	0	7	35	94	2	0	0	.195	.285	.300	.585	.106	.261	28	11	.274	68	-12	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.1
2038	35	MLB 90%	ARI	276	243	47	8	0	6	29	81	2	0	0	.193	.285	.300	.585	.107	.259	29	11	.266	62	-12	+0	-5	+5	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7146	6276	1283	232	13	172	755	1861	56	38	12	.204	.295	.328	.623	.123	.259	26	11	.283	75	-205	+3	-18	+128	+202	11.2
/ 162G	—			650	571	117	21	1	16	69	169	5	3	1	.205	.297	.329	.626	.124	.259	26	11	.283	75	-19	+0	-2	+12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	164	133	29	9	2	1	25	25	6	5	3	.218	.366	.338	.704	.120	.262	15	15	.330	111	+2	-0	—	—	+5	0.7
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	112	88	24	8	0	2	23	19	0	5	0	.273	.423	.432	.855	.159	.324	17	21	.385	153	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.1
2023	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	168	127	30	6	0	6	38	35	1	0	0	.236	.416	.425	.841	.189	.273	21	23	.379	148	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2023	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	302	238	60	14	1	5	55	61	5	1	0	.252	.403	.382	.785	.130	.312	20	18	.358	132	+11	+0	—	—	+9	2.0
2023	20	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	18	14	4	0	0	1	4	5	0	0	0	.286	.444	.500	.944	.214	.375	28	22	.421	181	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	66	50	10	3	0	0	16	22	0	1	0	.200	.394	.260	.654	.060	.357	33	24	.323	106	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	21	A+	Hillsboro Hops	354	292	71	11	0	5	55	62	3	4	3	.243	.369	.332	.701	.089	.288	18	16	.325	107	+3	-0	—	—	+10	1.2
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	383	321	76	14	0	18	51	67	2	1	0	.237	.345	.449	.794	.212	.241	17	13	.345	123	+10	+0	—	—	+11	2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Cerda (OGILVIE)	23	30→40	35→45	30	60	.206/.291/.326	.120	.263	8	2	26%	10%	75	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→37	47→55	38→40	45	.206/.269/.343	.137	.257	14	4	26%	7%	69	-0.4	.204/.281/.355	.151	.268	17	3	29%	9%	77	+0.1	.182/.281/.358	.176	.233	21	4	31%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Niko Vasquez 2012 · AA	23	39→41	43→50	40→45	46	.196/.269/.309	.112	.266	11	3	29%	8%	60	-1.0	.200/.265/.306	.106	.264	9	4	26%	8%	57	-1.2	.227/.282/.376	.149	.290	19	6	28%	6%	81	+0.2
✕Orlando Mercado 2009 · AA	24	43	43→45	39→40	56	.212/.303/.320	.108	.242	11	4	17%	10%	78	+0.2	.230/.299/.305	.075	.268	5	4	15%	9%	71	-0.3	.233/.294/.298	.065	.270	5	2	15%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Tyler Ogle 2014 · A	23	45→44	46→50	40→30	56	.224/.317/.350	.126	.261	13	5	19%	10%	92	+1.2	.220/.301/.362	.142	.269	16	3	24%	9%	87	+0.8	.208/.283/.360	.152	.254	19	0	26%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Wyatt Toregas 2007 · AA	24	45→38	42→45	38→40	43	.222/.272/.323	.102	.275	9	3	23%	6%	64	-0.8	.227/.279/.346	.119	.268	13	4	20%	6%	73	-0.1	.222/.276/.342	.120	.254	15	2	19%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Jakson Reetz 2019 · A	23	40→34	40→60	39→45	42	.196/.270/.285	.090	.278	8	5	31%	7%	55	-1.4	.198/.276/.316	.118	.286	13	5	33%	7%	66	-0.6	.197/.277/.397	.201	.245	26	4	31%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Travis Harrison 2016 · AA	23	45→49	40	37→45	47	.214/.293/.309	.095	.292	6	4	27%	8%	70	-0.3	.189/.272/.276	.087	.284	6	9	32%	8%	53	-1.5	.162/.252/.242	.080	.256	5	10	35%	8%	34	-2.0
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	40	46→45	42→45	52	.200/.296/.328	.127	.281	14	6	32%	12%	76	+0.1	.179/.260/.279	.100	.257	10	6	32%	9%	49	-1.8	.150/.230/.230	.080	.212	8	4	32%	9%	21	-1.6
✕Blake Ochoa 2009 · A	23	44	41→45	40	45	.214/.268/.311	.097	.267	8	5	22%	7%	59	-1.1	.237/.297/.376	.139	.286	15	5	22%	7%	89	+0.9	.250/.315/.422	.172	.289	21	2	21%	7%	109	+0.7
●Michael Wing 2012 · A	23	49→53	46→55	36→40	42	.243/.290/.375	.131	.304	13	4	24%	5%	85	+0.7	.217/.257/.338	.121	.282	11	5	26%	4%	61	-1.0	.236/.277/.407	.172	.297	19	4	27%	4%	88	+0.6
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	43→40	43	.204/.266/.339	.135	.261	15	5	28%	7%	66	-0.6	.214/.269/.320	.106	.298	11	5	30%	6%	62	-0.9	.199/.250/.262	.063	.298	6	0	34%	6%	34	-0.9
✕Renae Martinez 2018 · A	24	45→32	43→50	41→40	44	.225/.279/.334	.109	.278	11	5	23%	6%	69	-0.4	.218/.277/.327	.109	.287	11	3	27%	6%	68	-0.5	.193/.260/.302	.109	.265	11	2	30%	7%	51	-0.9
✕Brett Cumberland 2019 · AA	24	38→39	47→50	37→30	40	.191/.284/.322	.131	.293	15	2	37%	7%	72	-0.2	.199/.301/.327	.128	.293	14	3	34%	8%	80	+0.4	.177/.295/.289	.111	.265	13	1	34%	8%	65	-0.3
✕Julian Leon 2019 · AAA	23	40	47→45	38→30	41	.198/.278/.331	.133	.302	16	3	38%	8%	70	-0.3	.183/.274/.297	.114	.309	12	4	41%	9%	60	-1.0	.120/.223/.203	.083	.225	9	0	47%	9%	14	-1.8
✕Adam Donachie 2007 · AA	23	46	46→45	41→30	48	.228/.295/.354	.125	.290	13	3	25%	8%	82	+0.5	.200/.267/.308	.108	.273	12	3	29%	8%	59	-1.1	.169/.240/.257	.088	.234	9	0	30%	8%	33	-1.3
✕Michael Paez 2019 · A	24	43→44	43→45	38→40	46	.211/.282/.324	.113	.271	11	6	25%	7%	69	-0.4	.208/.270/.299	.091	.261	8	4	22%	7%	57	-1.2	.190/.251/.256	.067	.232	5	0	19%	6%	34	-1.7
✕Anderson Hidalgo 2012 · A	23	49	41→45	35→50	43	.234/.283/.340	.107	.299	8	3	24%	6%	73	-0.1	.212/.264/.303	.091	.278	6	4	25%	6%	55	-1.4	.185/.239/.255	.071	.240	5	1	24%	5%	30	-1.7
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	44→40	48→50	43→30	49	.219/.298/.359	.140	.287	16	5	28%	9%	85	+0.7	.205/.289/.350	.145	.278	18	3	31%	10%	80	+0.4	.184/.274/.315	.131	.252	17	0	32%	10%	62	-0.5
✕Nick Hundley 2008 · AA	24	41→45	50→55	39→40	45	.215/.274/.369	.154	.259	18	3	25%	7%	78	+0.2	.221/.277/.376	.155	.268	18	4	24%	7%	80	+0.4	.254/.322/.429	.174	.319	17	4	25%	8%	107	+1.2
✕Deivy Grullón 2019 · AA	23	44→43	49→55	40→30	37	.229/.262/.370	.141	.296	18	2	29%	4%	72	-0.2	.226/.274/.393	.167	.313	23	3	34%	6%	84	+0.6	.204/.262/.376	.172	.288	25	1	37%	7%	71	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)