Christian Cerda

C Reno Aces
Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033
OGV OFP35OGV rank#830ETA2029MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421AA/A+ARI420.237/.373/.3225557—.191/.288/.262
202522AAARI383.237/.345/.44918161—.182/.267/.313
202623AAAARI242.234/.335/.3615063—.207/.284/.305
2027PROJ10% MLB24MLBARI16.213/.294/.33000750.0
2028PROJ33% MLB25MLBARI70.215/.297/.33710770.1
2029PROJ46% MLB26MLBARI123.217/.298/.34131790.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Chase%71
BB%64
K%56
Whiff%48
Max EV35
Z-Con%26
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 6.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 75%
CompsDrew Ellis (age 25) · Orlando Mercado (age 24) · Wyatt Toregas (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .294 / .330
PA16
HR0
K%25
BB%12
BABIP269
ISO71
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.30.30.30.227282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.0$0.1M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2030Arb-1$1M+0.3$1.0M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-2$2M+0.3$0.9M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-3$2M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $0.8M $4M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202118 ROKDSL Rays 1 — 164133 29921 25256 53 218366338704 120262 1515 330 24 — — — — — —
202219 ROKACL D-backs Black — 11288 24802 23190 50 273423432855 159324 1721 385 67 — — — — — —
202320 A+Hillsboro Hops — 168127 30606 38351 00 236416425841 189273 2123 379 95 — — — — — —
202320 AVisalia Rawhide — 302238 601415 55615 10 252403382785 130312 2018 358 75 — — — — — —
202320 INTLEstrellas Orientales — 1814 4001 450 00 286444500944 214375 2822 421 171 — — — — — —
202421 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 6650 10300 16220 10 200394260654 60357 3324 323 64 — — — — — —
202421 A+Hillsboro Hops — 354292 711105 55623 43 243369332701 89288 1816 325 56 — — — — — —
202522 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 383321 7614018 51672 10 237345449794 212241 1713 345 61 — — — — — —
202623 AAAReno Aces — 242205 481105 28533 00 234335361696 127287 2212 311 63 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202118 ROK MLEDSL Rays 1 — 164142 18511 16316 53 127244197441 70157 1910 204 24 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLEACL D-backs Black — 11297 18502 14280 50 186288299587 113239 2512 267 67 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLEHillsboro Hops — 168138 27505 27481 00 196331341672 145247 2916 308 95 — — — — — —
202320 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 302254 501114 39825 10 197315295611 98258 2713 279 75 — — — — — —
202421 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 6655 10300 11260 10 182318236555 55343 3917 263 64 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEHillsboro Hops — 354311 60805 36873 43 193283267550 74241 2510 251 56 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 383335 6111011 37842 10 182267313581 131198 2210 258 61 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLEReno Aces — 242213 44904 20643 00 207284305589 99261 268 261 63 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEDSL Rays 1 — 164142 18511 16316 53 127244197441 70155 1910 204 24 — — — — — —
202118 ROK RAWDSL Rays 1 — 164133 29921 25256 53 218366338704 120262 1515 330 24 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLEACL D-backs Black — 11297 18502 14280 50 186288299587 113235 2512 267 67 — — — — — —
202219 ROK RAWACL D-backs Black — 11288 24802 23190 50 273423432855 159324 1721 385 67 — — — — — —
202320 A MLE3 teams — 488408 8117110 681346 10 199322319640 120263 2714 289 82 — — — — — —
202320 A RAW3 teams — 488379 9420112 971016 10 248409401810 153301 2120 368 82 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 420366 701105 471133 53 191288262551 71258 2711 253 57 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAW2 teams — 420342 811405 71843 53 237373322694 85296 2017 324 57 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 383335 6111011 37842 10 182267313581 131204 2210 258 61 — — — — — —
202522 AA RAWAmarillo Sod Poodles — 383321 7614018 51672 10 237345449794 212241 1713 345 61 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLEReno Aces — 242213 44904 20643 00 207284305589 99270 268 261 63 — — — — — —
202623 AAA RAWReno Aces — 242205 481105 28533 00 234335361696 127287 2212 311 63 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEDSL Rays 1 — 164141 18511 16316 53 128244199442 71157 1910 204 24 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLEACL D-backs Black — 11297 18502 14280 50 186288299587 113239 2512 267 67 — — — — — —
202320 A MLE3 teams — 488411 8117110 681346 10 197322316638 119254 2714 289 82 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 420367 701105 471133 53 191288262550 71257 2711 253 57 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 383341 6111011 37842 10 179267308575 129198 2210 258 61 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLEReno Aces — 242217 44904 20643 00 203284300583 97261 268 261 63 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 420367 701105 471133 53 191288262550 71257 2711 253 57 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 383341 6111011 37842 10 179267308575 129198 2210 258 61 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLEReno Aces — 242217 44904 20643 00 203284300583 97261 268 261 63 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEARI 10% 292261 541106 27722 20 208289323612 115261 259 279 75 -9 +0 +1 +5 +6 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXARI 10% 1614 3100 240 00 213294330624 117269 2512 283 75 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEARI 33% 213189 40805 20522 10 210292331623 120262 249 283 77 -6 +0 +1 +4 +5 0.4
202926 MLB MLEARI 46% 266237 501006 25652 10 212294334628 122263 249 285 79 -7 +0 +1 +5 +6 0.5
203027 MLB MLEARI 52% 289258 561117 27712 10 213294335629 123264 259 285 79 -7 +0 +1 +5 +6 0.6
203128 MLB MLEARI 56% 302269 581117 28742 00 213293334627 122265 259 284 79 -8 +0 +1 +5 +7 0.5
203229 MLB MLEARI 56% 298266 561107 28742 00 212292332623 120265 259 283 77 -8 +0 -0 +5 +6 0.4
203330 MLB MLEARI 57% 296265 551106 27742 00 209288324612 115263 259 278 74 -9 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.2
202825 MLB CTXARI 33% 7062 13301 7171 00 215297337634 122271 2410 287 77 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
202926 MLB CTXARI 46% 123109 24503 12301 10 217298341639 124272 2410 289 79 -3 +0 +1 +2 +3 0.3
203027 MLB CTXARI 52% 151135 28603 14371 10 218298342641 124273 259 290 79 -4 +0 +1 +3 +3 0.3
203128 MLB CTXARI 56% 168149 33704 16411 00 218298341639 124273 2410 289 79 -4 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.3
203229 MLB CTXARI 56% 168149 33704 16421 00 217296338635 122273 2510 287 77 -5 +0 -0 +3 +4 0.2
203330 MLB CTXARI 57% 168150 32703 15421 00 213292330623 117271 259 282 74 -5 +0 -0 +3 +4 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 848754 16335018 802096 20 216296334631 118273 259 287 70 -23 +0 +1 +15 +18 1.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 12527014 611605 20 216297336632 119272 259 287 70 -17 +0 +1 +12 +14 1.0
Career— MLE — 36303185 636126474 37290333 216 200290311601 112251 2510 272 70 -49 +1 +4 +33 +39 2.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650570 11423113 671626 41 200291312603 112253 2510 272 70 -18 +0 +1 +12 +14 1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 242 PAwOBA .307 → .261 (−46)K% 21.9% → 26.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.90%÷1.000×1.200——26.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.57%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0488.37%
HBP% /PA1.24%—×0.940—×1.0481.22%
Singles /BIP21.05%÷1.000×0.930×0.967×1.04819.84%
Doubles /BIP7.24%÷1.000×0.830×0.967×1.0486.09%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.967×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP3.29%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0482.41%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .307 → .261; ISO .127 → .101; BABIP .287 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 383 PAwOBA .341 → .258 (−83)K% 17.5% → 22.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.49%÷0.972×1.220——21.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.32%÷0.994×0.700—×1.0279.63%
HBP% /PA0.52%—×0.870—×1.0270.47%
Singles /BIP17.32%÷1.041×0.920×0.965×1.02715.17%
Doubles /BIP5.51%÷1.119×0.840×0.965×1.0274.10%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.985×0.940×0.965×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP7.09%÷1.333×0.800—×1.0274.37%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .341 → .258; ISO .212 → .139; BABIP .241 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 354 PAwOBA .320 → .251 (−69)K% 17.5% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.51%÷0.964×1.350——24.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.25%÷1.086×0.710—×1.01210.10%
HBP% /PA0.85%—×0.810—×1.0120.69%
Singles /BIP23.91%÷1.049×0.910×0.970×1.01220.36%
Doubles /BIP4.78%÷1.066×0.830×0.970×1.0123.66%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.820×0.970×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP2.17%÷0.875×0.830—×1.0122.09%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 110, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 93, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .320 → .251; ISO .089 → .078; BABIP .288 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 66 PAwOBA .317 → .263 (−54)K% 33.3% → 39.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷1.018×1.220——39.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA24.24%÷1.026×0.700—×1.04217.23%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.974×0.920—×1.04224.61%
Doubles /BIP10.71%÷0.966×0.840—×1.0429.71%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.987×0.940—×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.229×0.800—×1.0420.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .317 → .263; ISO .060 → .055; BABIP .357 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 302 PAwOBA .355 → .279 (−76)K% 20.2% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.20%÷1.019×1.360——26.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.21%÷0.987×0.690—×1.01512.92%
HBP% /PA1.66%—×0.780—×1.0151.31%
Singles /BIP22.60%÷1.060×0.920×0.958×1.01519.07%
Doubles /BIP7.91%÷1.029×0.830×0.958×1.0156.20%
Triples /BIP0.56%÷0.900×0.910×0.958×1.0150.56%
Home runs /BIP2.82%÷1.003×0.800—×1.0152.29%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .355 → .279; ISO .130 → .106; BABIP .312 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 168 PAwOBA .375 → .308 (−67)K% 20.8% → 28.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.83%÷0.987×1.350——28.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.62%÷1.038×0.710—×1.02715.89%
HBP% /PA0.60%—×0.810—×1.0270.50%
Singles /BIP19.57%÷0.980×0.910×0.971×1.02718.12%
Doubles /BIP6.52%÷0.947×0.830×0.971×1.0275.70%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.820×0.971×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP6.52%÷0.952×0.830—×1.0275.84%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .375 → .308; ISO .189 → .169; BABIP .273 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Black · 112 PAwOBA .380 → .267 (−113)K% 17.0% → 24.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.96%÷0.988×1.440——24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.54%÷1.016×0.620—×0.99512.47%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP20.29%÷0.996×0.820×0.962×0.99515.99%
Doubles /BIP11.59%÷1.043×0.720×0.962×0.9957.66%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.958×0.720×0.962×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP2.90%÷0.948×0.780—×0.9952.37%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 92, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .380 → .267; ISO .159 → .118; BABIP .324 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Rays 1 · 164 PAwOBA .322 → .204 (−119)K% 15.2% → 19.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.24%÷0.979×1.220——18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.24%÷1.067×0.700—×0.9959.95%
HBP% /PA3.66%—×0.700—×0.9952.55%
Singles /BIP15.74%÷1.008×0.680×0.960×0.99510.14%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.114×0.600×0.960×0.9954.29%
Triples /BIP1.85%÷0.907×0.600×0.960×0.9951.17%
Home runs /BIP0.93%÷0.907×0.470—×0.9950.48%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 123, 3B 82, K 96, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .322 → .204; ISO .120 → .068; BABIP .262 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .