Luca Tresh — OGILVIE

Luca TreshC Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 193 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION265 act + 176 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .269 / .367

PA176

HR5

K%34

BB%5

BABIP311

ISO147

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	3 teams	—	82	77	12	4	0	1	5	30	0	1	0	156	207	247	454	91	239	37	6	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	3 teams	—	82	77	15	5	0	1	5	23	0	1	0	195	244	299	543	104	264	28	6	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	453	413	88	14	1	16	32	144	4	4	3	213	276	368	644	155	280	32	7	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	453	391	105	19	1	19	54	110	4	4	3	269	363	468	831	199	323	24	12	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	380	346	63	7	2	12	31	90	0	1	1	182	249	318	567	136	206	24	8	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	380	334	76	11	2	10	43	72	0	1	1	228	316	362	678	135	259	19	11	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	400	366	73	15	1	15	23	129	4	0	0	199	254	369	623	169	254	32	6	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	400	352	88	19	1	14	37	98	4	0	0	250	328	429	757	179	301	24	9	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	271	247	49	13	3	8	17	70	2	3	0	198	256	372	628	174	240	26	6	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	271	243	63	16	3	10	21	59	2	3	0	259	323	473	797	214	301	22	8	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	KC	—	265	249	56	11	0	6	11	97	3	1	1	225	266	341	608	116	338	37	4	265	61	-12	-0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
YTD	26	AAA	KC	—	265	243	67	14	0	8	16	81	3	1	1	276	327	432	759	156	378	31	6	335	114	+4	-0	+0	+5	+8	1.7
ROS	26	AAA	KC	10%	176	163	36	7	1	5	9	60	2	1	0	220	269	367	636	147	300	34	5	277	70	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
ROS	26	MLB	KC	10%	18	17	4	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	235	278	471	748	235	296	33	6	266	62	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
FULL	26	AAA	KC	—	283	266	60	12	0	7	12	103	3	1	1	226	267	350	617	124	335	36	4	265	61	-12	-0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
TOT	26	AAA	KC	—	441	412	92	18	1	11	20	157	5	2	1	223	267	351	619	128	327	36	5	270	65	-18	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	KC	38%	304	281	61	12	1	9	17	99	3	2	1	217	269	363	632	146	298	33	6	282	74	-9	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.5
2028	28	MLB	KC	52%	340	313	69	14	1	10	21	109	3	2	1	220	276	367	643	147	297	32	6	284	76	-9	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.6
2029	29	MLB	KC	57%	354	326	71	14	1	10	22	113	3	2	1	218	274	359	632	141	296	32	6	284	76	-10	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.5
2027	27	MLB	KC	38%	114	105	22	4	0	3	7	37	1	1	0	210	265	333	599	124	294	32	6	271	66	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	28	MLB	KC	52%	177	162	36	7	1	5	11	57	2	1	0	222	280	370	650	148	293	32	6	273	67	-7	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.1
2029	29	MLB	KC	57%	202	185	41	8	1	6	13	64	2	1	0	222	280	373	653	151	292	32	6	273	67	-7	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	511	469	103	20	2	15	32	164	5	3	0	220	277	367	643	147	300	32	6	272	67	-19	+1	-1	+9	+14	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	131	25	3	19	41	209	6	4	0	219	277	367	644	147	300	32	6	272	67	-24	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	2760	2532	522	100	11	86	177	844	21	16	7	206	264	356	620	150	268	31	6	271	66	-107	+0	-2	+49	+78	2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	124	24	3	20	42	199	5	4	2	208	266	359	625	151	272	31	6	271	66	-25	+0	-0	+12	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	39	35	5	1	0	0	4	11	0	0	0	143	231	171	402	29	208	28	10	197	9	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2021	21	ROK	ACL Royals Blue	—	19	18	7	3	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	389	421	722	1.143	333	462	21	5	492	235	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2021	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	24	24	3	1	0	0	0	8	0	1	0	125	125	167	292	42	188	33	0	129	-43	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	106	91	23	4	0	5	13	25	2	1	0	253	358	462	820	209	295	24	12	366	138	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2022	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	347	300	82	15	1	14	41	85	2	3	3	273	364	470	834	197	332	24	12	366	139	+15	-1	—	—	+10	2.5
2023	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	380	334	76	11	2	10	43	72	0	1	1	228	316	362	678	135	259	19	11	306	92	-3	-0	—	—	+11	0.7
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	400	352	88	19	1	14	37	98	4	0	0	250	328	429	757	179	301	24	9	332	112	+6	+0	—	—	+11	1.7
2025	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	271	243	63	16	3	10	21	59	2	3	0	259	323	473	797	214	301	22	8	344	121	+6	+1	—	—	+8	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	518	15	3	219	271	367	+9	+8	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	20	3	219	271	367	+11.9	+10.3	1.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luca Tresh (OGILVIE)	26	50	60	45	40	223/267/351	128	327	11	2	36%	5%	65	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Luke Montz 2009 · MLB	26	42→46	49→55	41→40	45	216/276/363	147	273	17	3	28%	7%	77	+0.1	204/273/344	140	253	17	4	26%	8%	71	-0.3	211/285/427	216	246	30	4	28%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Steven Hill 2011 · AAA	26	42→47	53→55	44→30	39	225/268/396	171	282	22	3	29%	5%	82	+0.5	229/274/414	185	283	25	4	28%	5%	90	+1.0	226/269/426	200	268	30	1	29%	5%	88	+0.4
✕René Pinto 2023 · MLB	26	41	52→60	46→40	34	217/254/382	165	301	21	5	35%	4%	72	-0.2	209/250/383	174	294	23	4	36%	5%	72	-0.2	195/239/378	183	269	27	2	38%	5%	63	-0.4
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	46→47	54→55	45→30	46	238/296/415	177	289	22	3	26%	8%	98	+1.6	234/288/383	149	306	17	3	28%	7%	87	+0.8	227/280/355	128	284	13	2	24%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Lucas May 2011 · MLB	26	44→43	47→55	45	40	224/275/362	139	294	15	6	29%	6%	76	+0.0	197/242/314	117	276	12	6	32%	5%	49	-1.8	172/214/272	100	245	10	3	33%	4%	24	-1.5
✕Cam Devanney 2023 · AAA	26	37→41	50→55	45	40	199/260/351	152	262	18	6	31%	6%	67	-0.5	221/282/381	160	291	18	8	29%	6%	84	+0.6	219/280/381	162	289	19	7	30%	6%	79	+0.2
✕David Sheaffer 2021 · AAA	26	43	50→60	49→40	38	221/266/374	153	297	19	6	32%	5%	76	+0.0	202/248/304	102	291	9	5	32%	5%	49	-1.8	174/218/261	87	251	7	1	33%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Jake Rogers 2021 · MLB	26	38→40	52→60	49→45	43	202/278/367	165	273	21	5	33%	8%	79	+0.3	237/301/444	207	322	27	7	33%	8%	108	+2.3	221/284/435	214	280	29	2	32%	7%	97	+0.7
✕Wilin Rosario 2015 · MLB	26	46→49	50→60	44→45	43	238/277/390	151	269	19	5	20%	5%	84	+0.6	233/272/371	138	283	15	6	23%	5%	76	+0.1	241/269/390	149	284	19	3	23%	3%	76	+0.1
✕Will Craig 2021 · AAA	26	41→46	54→55	42→40	39	220/279/396	177	281	23	5	30%	6%	88	+0.9	231/285/382	151	303	18	7	29%	6%	85	+0.7	228/280/380	152	293	20	0	29%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→42	50	42→40	43	209/294/364	155	295	17	3	34%	8%	85	+0.7	225/296/383	158	313	17	4	32%	7%	91	+1.1	219/289/370	151	311	17	2	33%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Andrew Susac 2016 · MLB	26	45→40	50	47→30	46	228/302/385	157	299	17	3	29%	8%	94	+1.3	198/265/335	137	271	16	3	32%	8%	66	-0.6	171/243/299	127	230	17	0	33%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Yu Chang 2022 · MLB	26	45→46	53→50	47→45	40	234/282/411	177	297	20	6	28%	6%	92	+1.2	219/280/370	151	285	19	9	29%	7%	81	+0.4	191/255/314	123	243	18	8	29%	7%	54	-0.5
✕Matthew Brown 2009 · MLB	26	45→49	52→55	41→45	42	235/285/407	172	292	19	6	27%	6%	92	+1.2	204/258/343	139	271	15	6	30%	6%	64	-0.8	180/239/303	123	244	13	4	31%	6%	43	-1.1
✕Charles Leblanc 2022 · AAA	26	44→52	51→55	46→45	40	222/277/380	158	310	18	7	34%	7%	81	+0.4	228/302/384	156	326	18	9	33%	9%	93	+1.3	216/304/362	146	306	17	7	33%	10%	86	+0.6
✕Michael Chavis 2023 · MLB	27	44→46	52→60	44→45	36	228/270/389	161	298	20	5	31%	4%	81	+0.4	228/275/383	155	297	18	8	29%	5%	82	+0.5	219/271/388	169	270	22	7	27%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Tony Sanchez 2015 · MLB	27	44→49	51→50	45→40	43	226/290/386	161	295	18	2	29%	7%	89	+1.0	209/276/321	112	269	11	5	25%	7%	66	-0.6	236/291/326	90	320	9	1	27%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Chadwick Tromp 2021 · MLB	26	43	52→50	43→40	43	228/284/389	161	279	21	5	26%	6%	87	+0.8	208/250/354	146	258	19	3	27%	5%	63	-0.8	222/279/363	141	273	17	0	25%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2019 · MLB	26	42	51→55	43→45	36	222/263/376	154	294	20	2	32%	4%	75	-0.0	209/259/350	141	307	17	3	36%	6%	66	-0.6	176/253/325	149	241	21	5	36%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Eric Wood 2019 · AAA	26	42→48	52→55	51→45	43	222/280/390	169	278	20	8	28%	7%	85	+0.7	225/279/378	153	299	18	8	30%	6%	82	+0.5	206/262/356	150	273	19	2	31%	6%	66	-0.3