Luca Tresh
C Omaha Storm Chasers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AANorthwest Ark… | 400 | .250/.328/.429 | 14 | 0 | 65 | — | .201/.260/.346 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAAKC | 271 | .259/.323/.473 | 10 | 3 | 70 | — | .206/.259/.367 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAAKC | 385 | .266/.315/.401 | 10 | 1 | 57 | — | .221/.260/.318 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBKC | 16 | .206/.254/.325 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBKC | 69 | .206/.255/.324 | 1 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 39 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 231 | 171 | 402 | 29 | 208 | 28 | 10 | 197 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals Blue | — | 19 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 389 | 421 | 722 | 1.143 | 333 | 462 | 21 | 5 | 492 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 24 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 167 | 292 | 42 | 188 | 33 | 0 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 106 | 91 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 358 | 462 | 820 | 209 | 295 | 24 | 12 | 366 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 347 | 300 | 82 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 85 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 273 | 364 | 470 | 834 | 197 | 332 | 24 | 12 | 366 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 380 | 334 | 76 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 316 | 362 | 678 | 135 | 259 | 19 | 11 | 306 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 400 | 352 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 98 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 328 | 429 | 757 | 179 | 301 | 24 | 9 | 332 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 271 | 243 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 259 | 323 | 473 | 797 | 214 | 301 | 22 | 8 | 344 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 385 | 354 | 94 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 113 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 315 | 401 | 716 | 136 | 359 | 29 | 6 | 317 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 39 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 179 | 139 | 318 | 28 | 190 | 38 | 8 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals Blue | — | 19 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 316 | 556 | 871 | 278 | 344 | 32 | 5 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 106 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 292 | 362 | 654 | 160 | 262 | 29 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 347 | 315 | 71 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 106 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 225 | 289 | 375 | 663 | 149 | 288 | 31 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 380 | 345 | 64 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 255 | 299 | 553 | 113 | 214 | 23 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 400 | 364 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 120 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 260 | 346 | 606 | 146 | 251 | 30 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 271 | 248 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 206 | 259 | 367 | 626 | 161 | 252 | 26 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 385 | 362 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 136 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 260 | 318 | 578 | 97 | 324 | 35 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 82 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 220 | 260 | 479 | 91 | 261 | 37 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 82 | 77 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 244 | 299 | 543 | 104 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 246 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 409 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 137 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 220 | 290 | 372 | 661 | 152 | 287 | 30 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 453 | 391 | 105 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 54 | 110 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 269 | 363 | 468 | 831 | 199 | 323 | 24 | 12 | 366 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 380 | 345 | 64 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 255 | 299 | 553 | 113 | 218 | 23 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 380 | 334 | 76 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 316 | 362 | 678 | 135 | 259 | 19 | 11 | 306 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 400 | 364 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 120 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 260 | 346 | 606 | 146 | 256 | 30 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 400 | 352 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 98 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 328 | 429 | 757 | 179 | 301 | 24 | 9 | 332 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 271 | 248 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 206 | 259 | 367 | 626 | 161 | 254 | 26 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 271 | 243 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 259 | 323 | 473 | 797 | 214 | 301 | 22 | 8 | 344 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 385 | 362 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 136 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 260 | 318 | 578 | 97 | 329 | 35 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 385 | 354 | 94 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 113 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 315 | 401 | 716 | 136 | 359 | 29 | 6 | 317 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 82 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 220 | 260 | 479 | 91 | 240 | 37 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 410 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 137 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 220 | 290 | 371 | 660 | 151 | 282 | 30 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 380 | 345 | 64 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 255 | 299 | 553 | 113 | 214 | 23 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 400 | 368 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 120 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 260 | 342 | 602 | 144 | 251 | 30 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 271 | 251 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 259 | 363 | 622 | 159 | 252 | 26 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 385 | 363 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 136 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 260 | 317 | 577 | 96 | 324 | 35 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 400 | 368 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 120 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 260 | 342 | 602 | 144 | 251 | 30 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 271 | 251 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 259 | 363 | 622 | 159 | 252 | 26 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 385 | 363 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 136 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 260 | 317 | 577 | 96 | 324 | 35 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 10% | 380 | 355 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 126 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 256 | 333 | 589 | 124 | 294 | 33 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 254 | 325 | 579 | 119 | 291 | 31 | 6 | 258 | 64 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 31% | 222 | 206 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 257 | 332 | 590 | 123 | 292 | 33 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 31% | 69 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 255 | 324 | 579 | 118 | 290 | 33 | 6 | 259 | 64 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 261 | 297 | 558 | 94 | 300 | 33 | 6 | 259 | 64 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 122 | 28 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 217 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 260 | 294 | 554 | 91 | 300 | 33 | 6 | 259 | 64 | -28 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2348 | 2156 | 446 | 84 | 9 | 60 | 150 | 704 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 207 | 264 | 338 | 601 | 131 | 273 | 30 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -16 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 123 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 195 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 263 | 337 | 600 | 131 | 271 | 30 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -28 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 385 PAwOBA .310 → .253 (−57)K% 29.4% → 35.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×1.018 | 25.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.018 | 6.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.96% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .310 → .253; ISO .136 → .098; BABIP .359 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 271 PAwOBA .337 → .272 (−64)K% 21.8% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.77% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.75% | ÷0.935 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.48% | ÷1.108 | ×0.930 | ×0.971 | ×1.033 | 15.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | ×1.033 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×1.033 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .337 → .272; ISO .214 → .169; BABIP .301 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 400 PAwOBA .328 → .265 (−63)K% 24.5% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.50% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.25% | ÷1.056 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.26% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 18.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.48% | ÷1.025 | ×0.840 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.85% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .328 → .265; ISO .179 → .153; BABIP .301 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 380 PAwOBA .300 → .246 (−54)K% 18.9% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.95% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.32% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.23% | ÷1.055 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 17.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 3.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.062 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷0.872 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.60% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .300 → .246; ISO .135 → .119; BABIP .259 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 347 PAwOBA .361 → .285 (−76)K% 24.5% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.50% | ÷1.016 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.82% | ÷1.125 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 21.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.028 | ×0.810 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷0.920 | ×0.850 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.51% | ÷1.047 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.04% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 103, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .361 → .285; ISO .197 → .152; BABIP .332 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 106 PAwOBA .356 → .299 (−57)K% 23.6% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.58% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.26% | ÷0.993 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 19.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.58% | ÷0.905 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 6.97% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .356 → .299; ISO .209 → .182; BABIP .295 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AColumbia Fireflies · 39 PAwOBA .193 → .145 (−48)K% 28.2% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.21% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.26% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 15.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 3.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.055 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.237 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 103, 2B 92, 3B 111, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .193 → .145; ISO .029 → .022; BABIP .208 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Royals Blue · 19 PAwOBA .477 → .322 (−155)K% 21.1% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 3.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 17.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 15.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 5.49% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .477 → .322; ISO .333 → .222; BABIP .462 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .