Seby Zavala

C Toledo Mud Hens

Age 33 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA HR -8% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	AAASEA	123	.188/.328/.376	4	0	37	—	.131/.238/.234
2024	30	MLBSEA	43	.154/.214/.282	1	0	37	0.2
2025	31	AAA/ROKBOS	266	.164/.277/.333	8	2	15	—	.118/.192/.227
2026	32	AAADET	148	.226/.338/.355	4	0	44	—	.169/.255/.262
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBDET	14	.190/.268/.318	0	0	69	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBDET	6	.181/.258/.298	0	0	60	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Barrel%42

Avg EV40

Bat Spd24

Speed20

xwOBA17

CompsDustin Garneau (age 33) · Joe Hudson (age 32) · Carlos M. Rodriguez (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .268 / .318

PA14

HR0

K%36

BB%7

BABIP264

ISO126

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT20

xAVG

100.197

POWER55

Barrel%

427.1

Avg EV

4088.4

Bat Spd

2468.6

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

2026.0

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.9M
Totals		$0.9M		$0.0M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	147	129	42	17	5	4	15	27	2	2	0	326	404	628	1.032	302	384	18	10	440	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	404	360	91	19	3	7	35	108	7	1	1	253	331	381	711	128	341	27	9	320	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	228	202	61	13	0	8	24	52	0	1	0	302	374	485	860	183	373	23	11	378	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	207	185	48	8	0	13	13	52	6	0	0	259	328	514	842	254	289	25	6	363	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	54	46	15	2	0	1	6	11	1	0	0	326	415	435	850	109	400	20	11	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	191	181	44	15	0	2	6	44	1	0	2	243	271	359	630	116	304	23	3	276	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	232	199	54	7	0	11	27	65	2	0	0	271	364	472	836	201	339	28	12	365	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	331	297	66	14	0	20	26	116	6	1	1	222	298	471	769	249	282	35	8	336	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	104	93	17	3	0	5	6	41	1	0	0	183	240	376	616	194	255	39	6	263	63	-5	+0	+0	+5	+2	0.3
2021	27	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	179	155	26	5	0	8	20	75	1	0	1	168	267	355	622	187	240	42	11	277	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	205	178	48	14	0	2	19	64	3	0	0	270	350	382	732	112	404	31	9	325	105	+1	+0	+12	+7	+4	2.5
2022	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	169	142	40	12	0	8	26	60	1	0	0	282	396	535	932	254	432	36	15	408	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	193	175	30	4	0	7	12	70	2	1	0	171	233	314	547	143	230	36	6	242	51	-11	+0	+12	+4	+4	1.0
2023	29	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	24	22	5	0	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	227	292	364	655	136	250	21	8	296	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	43	39	6	2	0	1	3	16	0	0	0	154	214	282	496	128	227	37	7	220	37	-3	+0	+1	+3	+1	0.2
2024	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	123	101	19	7	0	4	16	43	5	0	1	188	328	376	704	188	273	35	13	320	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	250	212	35	11	1	8	32	94	1	2	0	165	278	340	617	175	239	38	13	276	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	16	13	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	154	267	231	497	77	154	6	12	224	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	148	124	28	2	1	4	16	46	5	0	0	226	338	355	693	129	320	31	11	313	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	545	485	101	23	0	15	40	191	6	1	0	208	277	348	625	140	304	35	7	275	73	-18	+0	+26	+19	+12	3.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	147	135	29	11	3	3	9	39	2	2	0	215	274	407	681	193	281	27	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	404	375	72	14	3	5	20	142	7	1	1	192	246	285	532	93	285	35	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	228	213	46	9	0	5	14	76	0	1	0	216	264	329	593	113	309	33	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	207	190	39	5	0	12	8	71	6	0	0	205	260	421	681	216	244	34	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	191	183	35	11	0	1	4	53	1	0	2	191	213	268	481	77	255	28	2	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	232	207	45	6	0	9	19	79	2	0	0	217	289	377	666	159	288	34	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	331	306	49	11	0	13	17	145	6	1	1	160	219	324	542	163	233	44	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	104	93	17	3	0	5	6	41	1	0	0	183	240	376	616	194	255	39	6	261	63	-5	+0	+0	+5	+2	0.3
2021	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	179	162	18	3	0	4	13	89	1	0	1	111	182	204	386	93	199	50	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	205	178	48	14	0	2	19	64	3	0	0	270	350	382	732	112	404	31	9	323	105	+1	+0	+12	+7	+4	2.5
2022	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	169	152	29	9	0	4	16	74	1	0	0	191	272	329	601	138	337	44	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	193	175	30	4	0	7	12	70	2	1	0	171	233	314	547	143	230	36	6	243	51	-11	+0	+12	+4	+4	1.0
2023	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	24	23	5	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	217	250	348	598	130	228	25	4	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	43	39	6	2	0	1	3	16	0	0	0	154	214	282	496	128	227	37	7	222	37	-3	+0	+1	+3	+1	0.2
2024	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	123	107	14	5	0	2	10	51	5	0	1	131	238	234	471	103	211	41	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	250	224	26	8	1	5	20	112	1	2	0	116	192	228	420	112	183	45	8	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	16	14	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	143	200	214	414	71	106	6	6	160	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	148	130	22	1	1	3	10	55	5	0	0	169	255	262	517	92	260	37	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	147	135	29	11	3	3	9	39	2	2	0	215	274	407	681	193	277	27	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	—	147	129	42	17	5	4	15	27	2	2	0	326	404	628	1.032	302	384	18	10	440	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	404	375	72	14	3	5	20	142	7	1	1	192	246	285	532	93	293	35	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	404	360	91	19	3	7	35	108	7	1	1	253	331	381	711	128	341	27	9	320	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	489	452	96	16	0	19	25	166	7	1	0	212	264	374	638	162	286	34	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	489	433	124	23	0	22	43	115	7	1	0	286	360	492	851	206	342	24	9	372	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	423	390	80	17	0	10	23	132	3	0	2	205	255	326	580	121	275	31	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	423	380	98	22	0	13	33	109	3	0	2	258	322	418	741	161	321	26	8	325	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	331	306	49	11	0	13	17	145	6	1	1	160	219	324	542	163	240	44	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	331	297	66	14	0	20	26	116	6	1	1	222	298	471	769	249	282	35	8	336	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	283	255	35	6	0	9	19	130	2	0	1	137	203	267	470	129	218	46	7	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	283	248	43	8	0	13	26	116	2	0	1	173	257	363	620	190	246	41	9	272	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	374	330	76	22	0	6	35	138	4	0	0	230	312	352	663	121	372	37	9	297	87	-6	+0	+12	+7	+8	2.2
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	374	320	88	26	0	10	45	124	4	0	0	275	371	450	821	175	415	33	12	363	87	-6	+0	+12	+7	+8	2.2
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	217	198	35	4	0	8	13	76	2	1	0	177	235	318	553	141	233	35	6	240	49	-13	+0	+12	+4	+5	0.8
2023	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	217	197	35	4	0	8	14	75	2	1	0	178	239	320	559	142	233	35	6	248	49	-13	+0	+12	+4	+5	0.8
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	166	146	20	7	0	3	13	67	5	0	1	137	232	247	478	110	221	40	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	166	140	25	9	0	5	19	59	5	0	1	179	299	350	649	171	260	36	11	294	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	266	238	28	9	1	5	21	113	1	2	0	118	192	227	419	109	185	42	8	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	266	225	37	12	1	8	34	95	1	2	0	164	277	333	610	169	230	36	13	273	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	148	130	22	1	1	3	10	55	5	0	0	169	255	262	517	92	260	37	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	148	124	28	2	1	4	16	46	5	0	0	226	338	355	693	129	320	31	11	313	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	147	135	29	11	3	3	9	39	2	2	0	215	274	407	681	193	281	27	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	404	374	72	14	3	5	20	142	7	1	1	193	246	286	532	94	285	35	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	489	454	96	16	0	19	25	166	7	1	0	211	264	372	637	161	278	34	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	423	394	80	17	0	10	23	132	3	0	2	203	255	322	577	119	273	31	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	331	305	49	11	0	13	17	145	6	1	1	161	219	325	543	164	233	44	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	283	260	35	6	0	9	19	130	2	0	1	135	203	262	464	127	220	46	7	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	374	332	76	22	0	6	35	138	4	0	0	229	312	349	661	120	373	37	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	217	200	35	4	0	8	13	76	2	1	0	175	235	315	550	140	230	35	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	166	147	20	7	0	3	13	67	5	0	1	136	232	245	477	109	215	40	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	266	242	28	9	1	5	21	113	1	2	0	116	192	223	415	107	178	42	8	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	148	132	22	1	1	3	10	55	5	0	0	167	255	258	513	91	260	37	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	166	147	20	7	0	3	13	67	5	0	1	136	232	245	477	109	215	40	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	266	242	28	9	1	5	21	113	1	2	0	116	192	223	415	107	178	42	8	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	148	132	22	1	1	3	10	55	5	0	0	167	255	258	513	91	260	37	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	DET	10%	227	204	40	8	1	6	18	73	3	2	1	194	272	326	598	132	268	32	8	270	69	-8	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	DET	10%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	190	268	318	586	128	264	36	7	266	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	DET	6%	101	91	16	3	0	2	8	33	1	0	0	184	261	305	566	121	258	33	8	257	60	-5	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.5
2028	34	MLB CTX	DET	6%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	181	258	298	555	117	254	33	0	253	60	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	551	491	102	23	0	15	40	193	6	1	0	208	276	346	622	138	303	35	7	275	54	-18	+0	+26	+19	+12	3.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	120	27	0	18	47	228	7	1	0	207	275	347	622	140	302	35	7	275	54	-21	+0	+30	+22	+14	4.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3490	3173	582	126	9	89	224	1282	47	9	6	183	248	313	561	130	269	37	6	249	54	-28	+0	+22	+23	+17	3.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	109	23	2	17	42	239	9	2	1	184	249	316	566	132	271	37	6	249	54	-23	+0	+19	+19	+14	3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 148 PAwOBA .308 → .233 (−75)K% 31.1% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.08%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	37.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	7.03%
HBP% /PA	3.38%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	2.99%
Singles /BIP	26.92%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.942	22.41%
Doubles /BIP	2.56%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.942	1.90%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.942	1.11%
Home runs /BIP	5.13%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .308 → .233; ISO .129 → .090; BABIP .320 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 250 PAwOBA .272 → .192 (−80)K% 37.6% → 44.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.60%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	44.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.80%	÷1.042	×0.690	—	×0.952	8.07%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.36%
Singles /BIP	12.71%	÷1.060	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	10.08%
Doubles /BIP	9.32%	÷0.991	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	7.06%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	6.78%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×0.952	4.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .272 → .192; ISO .175 → .124; BABIP .239 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Red Sox · 16 PAwOBA .234 → .160 (−74)K% 6.2% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.25%	÷0.965	×1.440	—	—	9.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷0.988	×0.620	—	×0.940	7.38%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.033	×0.820	—	×0.940	6.22%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.101	×0.720	—	×0.940	5.12%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.815	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 107, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .234 → .160; ISO .077 → .053; BABIP .154 → .106. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 123 PAwOBA .315 → .223 (−92)K% 35.0% → 41.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.96%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	41.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.01%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.54%
HBP% /PA	4.07%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	3.68%
Singles /BIP	13.79%	÷1.010	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	11.61%
Doubles /BIP	12.07%	÷1.014	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	9.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷1.142	×0.700	—	×0.962	4.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .223; ISO .188 → .119; BABIP .273 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 24 PAwOBA .288 → .218 (−70)K% 20.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	25.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.18%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷0.967	×0.930	—	×0.972	22.00%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.971	×0.830	—	×0.972	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.152	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.47%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 99, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .288 → .218; ISO .136 → .079; BABIP .250 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 169 PAwOBA .396 → .265 (−131)K% 35.5% → 43.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.50%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	43.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.79%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×0.982	9.75%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.55%
Singles /BIP	24.39%	÷1.003	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	21.10%
Doubles /BIP	14.63%	÷1.028	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	11.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.76%	÷1.421	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .396 → .265; ISO .254 → .138; BABIP .432 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 179 PAwOBA .274 → .187 (−87)K% 41.9% → 49.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	41.90%	÷1.011	×1.200	—	—	49.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.17%	÷1.053	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.26%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.52%
Singles /BIP	16.25%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.988	×0.992	15.01%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.128	×0.830	×0.988	×0.992	4.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.920	×0.988	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷1.190	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.84%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .274 → .187; ISO .187 → .108; BABIP .240 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 331 PAwOBA .328 → .233 (−95)K% 35.0% → 43.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.05%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	43.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.85%	÷1.077	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.12%
HBP% /PA	1.81%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.73%
Singles /BIP	17.68%	÷1.061	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	14.99%
Doubles /BIP	7.73%	÷0.921	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	6.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.05%	÷1.212	×0.840	—	×1.018	7.79%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .328 → .233; ISO .249 → .166; BABIP .282 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1René Riveralast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	42	1	221	273	354	+29	+90	11.7	11.8
/162	664	17	0	+11.9	+37.2	4.9	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.8	522	14	1	209	275	348	+9	+16	1.0	1.0
/162	664	18	1	+11.9	+20.3	1.3	pk7: 1
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Seby Zavala (OGILVIE)	33	20	55	45	60	192/269/323	131	268	3	1	32%	8%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	40→38	49→50	45	46	208/290/361	153	270	17	5	29%	8%	85	+0.2	192/269/357	165	248	20	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	145/226/306	160	173	21	1	31%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Joe Hudson 2023 · MLB	32	35	48→45	48→40	43	190/256/322	132	260	17	6	33%	8%	63	-1.4	191/279/316	125	294	15	9	37%	9%	71	-0.8	170/278/279	109	259	14	10	37%	11%	60	-0.5
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2015 · AAA	33	40→42	49→50	46→40	40	208/270/352	144	289	18	4	34%	7%	75	-0.5	209/260/317	108	295	11	4	32%	6%	63	-1.4	208/254/310	102	292	10	1	31%	5%	57	-1.1
✕Chad Moeller 2008 · MLB	33	40	45→50	41→30	42	204/259/322	118	253	14	4	25%	6%	63	-1.3	210/262/314	104	261	9	4	22%	5%	63	-1.4	200/250/291	90	248	5	0	21%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Michael Pérez 2024 · MLB	31	33	47→50	45→40	46	180/252/303	123	227	16	4	29%	8%	57	-1.8	205/274/328	123	274	14	5	29%	7%	71	-0.8	182/256/298	116	243	13	0	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2015 · MLB	32	35	45→40	47→40	39	188/244/299	111	241	14	4	29%	5%	53	-2.1	208/264/317	109	264	12	6	25%	6%	64	-1.3	195/249/267	72	243	7	0	22%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	43	46→45	47→50	43	217/275/348	131	274	14	4	26%	6%	76	-0.4	211/252/309	98	275	9	4	26%	4%	57	-1.8	199/229/296	97	264	10	0	29%	3%	42	-1.3
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2015 · AAA	33	43	43→45	46→40	41	215/264/322	107	277	12	6	27%	6%	65	-1.2	208/256/297	89	296	8	5	31%	5%	55	-1.9	191/237/262	72	277	6	1	32%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Mike Rivera 2012 · MLB	35	39	43→55	44→45	43	195/264/303	108	264	10	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	211/270/317	106	285	11	7	29%	6%	66	-1.1	194/245/256	62	262	7	0	28%	4%	40	-0.8
✕Anthony Bemboom 2023 · MLB	33	39	44→40	48→45	46	198/268/313	115	251	12	5	26%	8%	65	-1.2	207/274/311	104	273	9	5	26%	8%	67	-1.1	195/267/283	89	260	6	1	26%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Cody Ransom 2010 · MLB	34	39	51→55	49→50	45	208/273/373	166	259	19	11	28%	8%	81	-0.1	215/278/388	173	280	21	8	30%	7%	86	+0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	38	208/269/350	142	268	18	6	30%	5%	74	-0.5	213/278/331	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	73	-0.6	163/234/229	66	238	8	0	33%	5%	34	-0.7
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Chad Wallach 2024 · MLB	32	38→48	48→50	46→40	43	200/265/336	136	268	17	5	31%	7%	70	-0.9	201/264/329	128	278	15	5	32%	7%	67	-1.1	183/248/298	114	255	14	2	32%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Chris Owings 2024 · MLB	32	36→46	45→50	45→55	42	187/254/308	121	268	13	9	34%	8%	59	-1.7	212/286/336	124	301	14	13	32%	8%	77	-0.3	207/292/315	108	291	13	18	31%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Jeff Mathis 2016 · MLB	33	40→48	43→50	48→45	43	203/258/315	113	271	11	4	29%	7%	61	-1.5	218/271/325	107	298	9	4	28%	6%	68	-1.0	209/264/294	85	295	6	1	29%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Mike DiFelice 2002 · MLB	33	43	45→50	45→30	43	217/268/339	122	262	12	5	22%	6%	70	-0.8	228/284/358	130	270	12	5	19%	6%	81	-0.1	214/272/350	136	253	14	1	21%	6%	74	-0.2
✕Aramis Garcia 2024 · MLB	31	38→42	49→50	47→45	35	203/245/340	137	266	18	7	31%	4%	63	-1.4	186/247/317	131	264	17	7	35%	6%	59	-1.7	165/235/287	122	232	17	5	36%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Jason Smith 2009 · MLB	32	38→33	50→55	46→50	33	204/238/357	153	285	18	5	35%	4%	63	-1.3	184/222/296	112	269	13	12	36%	4%	43	-2.8	132/162/196	65	196	8	18	37%	3%	-4	-3.3

Seby Zavala

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps