Jacob Nottingham

C Tacoma Rainiers

Age 32 R/R 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAROOKIEExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	27	AAA/INTL2 orgs	373	.233/.339/.421	15	13	72	—	.197/.280/.341
2023	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	238	.220/.298/.407	10	1	40	—	.154/.231/.274
2025	30	AAASEA	65	.193/.281/.298	0	0	28	—	.155/.234/.241
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBSEA	12	.196/.265/.313	0	0	65	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBSEA	26	.192/.260/.302	0	0	60	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$0.9M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

Max EV61

Speed25

BB%16

K%6

Chase%6

Whiff%3

CompsDavid Matranga (age 32) · Matt Pagnozzi (age 32) · Joe Hudson (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .265 / .313

PA12

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP278

ISO91

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2019-2021

CONTACT—

xAVG

100.157

POWER—

Barrel%

8513.4

Avg EV

1081.4

SPEED—

Sprint

1025.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$0.0M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	GCL Astros	—	173	146	36	10	2	1	21	38	3	4	2	247	353	363	716	116	318	22	12	323	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	200	174	40	10	1	5	18	54	3	3	2	230	313	385	698	155	294	27	9	307	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	Stockton Ports	—	258	235	72	15	1	7	15	48	5	1	0	306	361	468	829	162	355	19	6	364	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	253	230	75	18	1	10	18	51	5	1	2	326	387	543	931	217	385	20	7	409	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	456	415	97	14	0	11	29	138	8	9	2	234	296	347	643	113	320	30	6	290	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	77	74	15	3	0	1	2	24	0	0	1	203	224	284	507	81	280	31	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	385	325	68	21	2	9	37	87	20	7	3	209	327	369	696	160	255	23	10	317	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	24	20	4	1	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	200	333	250	583	50	333	33	17	283	80	-1	+0	+1	+4	+1	0.5
2018	23	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	196	178	50	10	2	10	14	59	4	2	1	281	347	528	875	247	367	30	7	382	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	San Antonio Missions	—	332	290	67	21	0	5	28	95	9	6	1	231	318	355	673	124	318	29	8	303	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	54	48	9	1	0	4	5	20	1	0	0	188	278	458	736	271	208	37	9	323	101	+0	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.5
2021	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	45	40	6	1	0	3	2	20	2	0	0	150	227	400	627	250	167	44	4	271	73	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
2022	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	354	301	69	12	1	15	37	98	12	12	3	229	337	425	762	196	281	28	10	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	19	17	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	294	368	353	721	59	455	32	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	221	197	43	10	0	10	15	64	9	1	1	218	303	421	724	203	268	29	7	324	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	17	17	4	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	235	235	235	471		333	29	0	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	57	11	6	0	0	4	25	3	0	0	193	281	298	579	105	333	38	6	265	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	123	108	19	3	0	7	11	48	3	0	0	176	270	398	669	222	222	39	9	296	87	-2	+0	+3	+4	+3	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	—	173	154	28	7	1	1	13	55	3	4	2	182	259	260	519	78	264	32	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	200	181	31	7	1	4	11	77	3	3	2	171	231	287	518	116	238	38	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	258	240	64	12	1	4	10	60	5	1	0	267	310	375	685	108	326	23	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	253	236	63	13	1	7	12	72	5	1	2	267	316	419	736	153	354	28	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	456	427	85	13	0	7	17	169	8	9	2	199	243	279	522	80	301	37	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	385	339	60	20	2	5	23	111	20	7	3	177	270	292	562	115	238	29	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	24	20	4	1	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	200	333	250	583	50	333	33	17	287	80	-1	+0	+1	+4	+1	0.5
2018	23	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	196	181	35	7	1	6	11	82	4	2	1	193	255	343	598	149	306	42	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	332	299	53	15	0	4	19	125	9	6	1	177	248	268	515	90	271	38	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	54	48	9	1	0	4	5	20	1	0	0	188	278	458	736	271	208	37	9	318	101	+0	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.5
2021	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	45	40	6	1	0	3	2	20	2	0	0	150	227	400	627	250	167	44	4	275	73	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
2022	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	354	314	62	10	1	11	24	116	12	12	3	197	280	341	621	143	257	33	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	221	201	31	6	0	6	11	78	9	1	1	154	231	274	504	119	218	35	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	58	9	5	0	0	3	29	3	0	0	155	234	241	476	86	283	45	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	—	173	154	28	7	1	1	13	55	3	4	2	182	259	260	519	78	267	32	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	—	173	146	36	10	2	1	21	38	3	4	2	247	353	363	716	116	318	22	12	323	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	200	181	31	7	1	4	11	77	3	3	2	171	231	287	518	116	260	38	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	—	200	174	40	10	1	5	18	54	3	3	2	230	313	385	698	155	294	27	9	307	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	511	476	127	25	2	11	22	132	10	2	2	267	313	397	710	130	345	26	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	511	465	147	33	2	17	33	99	10	2	2	316	374	505	879	189	369	19	6	386	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	533	500	99	15	0	8	20	197	8	9	3	198	241	276	517	78	304	37	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	533	489	112	17	0	12	31	162	8	9	3	229	286	337	623	108	313	30	6	280	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	385	339	60	20	2	5	23	111	20	7	3	177	270	292	562	115	244	29	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	—	385	325	68	21	2	9	37	87	20	7	3	209	327	369	696	160	255	23	10	317	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	220	201	39	8	1	6	15	90	4	2	1	194	264	333	597	139	314	41	7	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	220	198	54	11	2	10	18	67	4	2	1	273	345	500	845	227	364	30	8	371	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	332	299	53	15	0	4	19	125	9	6	1	177	248	268	515	90	280	38	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	San Antonio Missions	—	332	290	67	21	0	5	28	95	9	6	1	231	318	355	673	124	318	29	8	303	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	54	48	9	1	0	4	5	20	1	0	0	188	278	458	736	271	208	37	9	318	101	+0	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	54	48	9	1	0	4	5	20	1	0	0	188	278	458	736	271	208	37	9	323	101	+0	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.5
2021	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	45	40	6	1	0	3	2	20	2	0	0	150	227	400	627	250	167	44	4	275	73	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
2021	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	45	40	6	1	0	3	2	20	2	0	0	150	227	400	627	250	167	44	4	271	73	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	373	331	64	10	1	11	26	122	12	13	3	193	276	329	606	136	262	33	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	373	318	74	13	1	15	39	104	12	13	3	233	339	421	760	189	291	28	10	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	238	217	35	7	0	7	12	84	9	1	1	161	235	290	526	129	222	35	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	238	214	47	10	0	10	15	69	9	1	1	220	298	407	705	187	274	29	6	316	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	58	9	5	0	0	3	29	3	0	0	155	234	241	476	86	300	45	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	57	11	6	0	0	4	25	3	0	0	193	281	298	579	105	333	38	6	265	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	—	173	155	28	7	1	1	13	55	3	4	2	181	259	258	517	77	264	32	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	200	184	31	7	1	4	11	77	3	3	2	168	231	283	513	114	238	38	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	511	474	127	25	2	11	22	132	10	2	2	268	313	399	712	131	340	26	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	533	500	99	15	0	8	20	197	8	9	3	198	241	276	517	78	301	37	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	385	339	60	20	2	5	23	111	20	7	3	177	270	292	562	115	238	29	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	220	199	39	8	1	6	15	90	4	2	1	196	264	337	600	141	309	41	7	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	332	301	53	15	0	4	19	125	9	6	1	176	248	266	513	90	271	38	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	54	48	9	1	0	4	5	20	1	0	0	188	278	458	736	271	208	37	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	45	41	6	1	0	3	2	20	2	0	0	146	227	390	618	244	167	44	4	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	373	332	64	10	1	11	26	122	12	13	3	193	276	328	605	136	257	33	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	238	215	35	7	0	7	12	84	9	1	1	163	235	293	528	130	218	35	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	59	9	5	0	0	3	29	3	0	0	153	234	237	472	85	283	45	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	59	9	5	0	0	3	29	3	0	0	153	234	237	472	85	283	45	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SEA	10%	200	181	37	9	1	4	13	64	4	3	1	198	267	317	584	119	280	32	6	264	65	-8	+0	-0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	SEA	10%	12	11	2	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	196	265	313	578	116	278	33	8	262	65	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	SEA	27%	96	88	17	4	0	2	6	31	2	1	0	194	262	306	568	112	275	32	6	258	60	-5	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	SEA	27%	26	24	4	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	192	260	302	562	110	273	31	8	255	60	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	149	132	23	4	0	7	13	56	3	0	0	174	264	364	627	189	229	38	9	289	59	-3	+0	+2	+5	+3	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	100	17	0	31	57	244	13	0	0	174	263	365	628	191	226	38	9	289	59	-14	+0	+8	+20	+14	2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3349	3045	599	131	8	68	185	1133	88	50	19	197	263	312	575	115	284	34	6	255	59	-12	+0	-1	+8	+7	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	116	25	2	13	36	220	17	10	4	196	262	311	574	115	284	34	6	255	59	-22	+0	-2	+15	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 65 PAwOBA .262 → .209 (−53)K% 38.5% → 44.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.46%	÷1.035	×1.200	—	—	44.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.15%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.03%
HBP% /PA	4.62%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	4.22%
Singles /BIP	15.62%	÷1.019	×0.930	—	×0.972	13.87%
Doubles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.985	×0.830	—	×0.972	15.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.204	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 103, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .262 → .209; ISO .105 → .083; BABIP .333 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 221 PAwOBA .315 → .229 (−86)K% 29.0% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.96%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	35.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.79%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.86%
HBP% /PA	4.07%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	3.80%
Singles /BIP	17.29%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.965	×0.992	15.46%
Doubles /BIP	7.52%	÷1.137	×0.830	×0.965	×0.992	5.25%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.965	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.52%	÷1.058	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .315 → .229; ISO .203 → .126; BABIP .268 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 354 PAwOBA .334 → .272 (−62)K% 27.7% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.68%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	32.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.45%	÷1.048	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.90%
HBP% /PA	3.39%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	3.20%
Singles /BIP	20.20%	÷0.952	×0.930	×0.990	×1.003	19.58%
Doubles /BIP	5.91%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.990	×1.003	4.87%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.130	×0.970	×0.990	×1.003	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	7.39%	÷0.970	×0.700	—	×1.003	5.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .334 → .272; ISO .196 → .146; BABIP .281 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 332 PAwOBA .299 → .232 (−66)K% 28.6% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.61%	÷0.979	×1.290	—	—	37.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.13%	÷1.055	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.74%
HBP% /PA	2.71%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	2.78%
Singles /BIP	21.03%	÷0.995	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	18.94%
Doubles /BIP	10.77%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	8.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.930	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.977	×0.780	—	×1.048	2.15%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 86, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .299 → .232; ISO .124 → .091; BABIP .318 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 196 PAwOBA .372 → .259 (−113)K% 30.1% → 42.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.10%	÷0.925	×1.290	—	—	41.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.14%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.050	5.40%
HBP% /PA	2.04%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	2.10%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.014	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	20.82%
Doubles /BIP	8.40%	÷1.014	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	6.69%
Triples /BIP	1.68%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	8.40%	÷1.124	×0.780	—	×1.050	6.12%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .372 → .259; ISO .247 → .153; BABIP .367 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABiloxi Shuckers · 385 PAwOBA .307 → .253 (−54)K% 22.6% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.60%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	28.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.57%	÷1.035	×0.680	—	×1.042	5.87%
HBP% /PA	5.19%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	4.55%
Singles /BIP	15.13%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.962	×1.042	14.15%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷0.946	×0.910	×0.962	×1.042	8.51%
Triples /BIP	0.84%	÷0.915	×0.880	×0.962	×1.042	0.81%
Home runs /BIP	3.78%	÷1.393	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.26%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .307 → .253; ISO .160 → .122; BABIP .255 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABiloxi Shuckers · 456 PAwOBA .283 → .231 (−52)K% 30.3% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.26%	÷0.999	×1.220	—	—	36.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.14%	÷1.152	×0.680	—	×1.050	3.81%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.55%
Singles /BIP	25.99%	÷0.973	×0.920	×0.961	×1.050	24.81%
Doubles /BIP	5.05%	÷0.955	×0.910	×0.961	×1.050	4.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.922	×0.880	×0.961	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.97%	÷1.243	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.68%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 95, 2B 91, 3B 84, K 100, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .283 → .231; ISO .113 → .082; BABIP .320 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Stockton Ports · 258 PAwOBA .357 → .296 (−61)K% 18.6% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.60%	÷1.072	×1.340	—	—	23.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.43%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.042	4.01%
HBP% /PA	1.94%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	1.60%
Singles /BIP	26.20%	÷0.959	×0.910	×0.987	×1.042	25.57%
Doubles /BIP	8.02%	÷1.047	×0.820	×0.987	×1.042	6.47%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷0.926	×0.760	×0.987	×1.042	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	3.74%	÷1.715	×0.920	—	×1.042	2.09%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 243, 1B 92, 2B 109, 3B 85, K 114, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .357 → .296; ISO .162 → .107; BABIP .355 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jacob Nottingham (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	197/265/314	118	280	2	2	32%	7%	65	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2015 · MLB	32	35	45→40	47→40	39	188/244/299	111	241	14	4	29%	5%	53	-2.1	208/264/317	109	264	12	6	25%	6%	64	-1.3	195/249/267	72	243	7	0	22%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Joe Hudson 2023 · MLB	32	35	48→45	48→40	43	190/256/322	132	260	17	6	33%	8%	63	-1.4	191/279/316	125	294	15	9	37%	9%	71	-0.8	170/278/279	109	259	14	10	37%	11%	60	-0.5
✕Jed Hansen 2006 · AAA	33	39→37	44→45	51→50	39	197/259/317	120	272	11	14	31%	6%	63	-1.4	204/261/317	113	259	11	13	25%	6%	63	-1.4	187/243/285	97	229	11	12	23%	5%	47	-1.7
✕Yamid Haad 2010 · AAA	32	41	41→45	43→40	39	203/240/298	94	262	9	5	26%	4%	50	-2.3	229/274/332	103	285	9	6	22%	6%	70	-0.8	246/291/336	90	298	6	2	19%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Gookie Dawkins 2011 · AAA	32	40→48	43→45	44→50	38	198/249/310	111	283	11	8	33%	6%	57	-1.8	202/256/331	129	284	14	11	33%	6%	64	-1.3	174/227/292	117	236	15	12	32%	6%	42	-1.8
✕Chris Owings 2024 · MLB	32	36→46	45→50	45→55	42	187/254/308	121	268	13	9	34%	8%	59	-1.7	212/286/336	124	301	14	13	32%	8%	77	-0.3	207/292/315	108	291	13	18	31%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Ali Solis 2019 · AAA	31	40	42→45	47→30	34	198/234/297	99	287	10	7	34%	4%	48	-2.5	206/245/341	135	278	17	7	32%	5%	62	-1.4	185/220/320	135	238	18	3	31%	4%	45	-1.6
✕Dane Sardinha 2011 · MLB	32	34→31	45	47→30	35	182/224/295	113	250	13	4	33%	4%	44	-2.8	195/265/294	99	283	10	7	32%	7%	59	-1.6	129/236/154	25	212	0	0	34%	10%	18	-1.2
✕Ryan Budde 2012 · AAA	32	39	40→45	41→40	41	190/256/277	88	290	9	5	36%	8%	52	-2.2	191/252/280	89	293	8	9	35%	7%	51	-2.2	136/194/183	47	215	2	8	36%	7%	5	-1.9
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	43	46→45	47→50	43	217/275/348	131	274	14	4	26%	6%	76	-0.4	211/252/309	98	275	9	4	26%	4%	57	-1.8	199/229/296	97	264	10	0	29%	3%	42	-1.3
✕Seth Bynum 2012 · AAA	31	40→43	48→50	51→50	38	210/256/349	140	281	17	13	32%	6%	69	-0.9	200/252/318	118	290	13	10	34%	6%	60	-1.6	171/223/270	99	255	10	6	36%	5%	35	-2.3
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2015 · AAA	33	43	43→45	46→40	41	215/264/322	107	277	12	6	27%	6%	65	-1.2	208/256/297	89	296	8	5	31%	5%	55	-1.9	191/237/262	72	277	6	1	32%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2024 · MLB	31	38→42	49→50	47→45	35	203/245/340	137	266	18	7	31%	4%	63	-1.4	186/247/317	131	264	17	7	35%	6%	59	-1.7	165/235/287	122	232	17	5	36%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	36→41	46→50	46→50	40	184/258/308	124	283	14	5	38%	8%	61	-1.5	195/262/307	112	329	12	10	41%	8%	61	-1.5	163/230/251	88	289	11	12	45%	8%	34	-1.8
✕Robinson Cancel 2008 · AAA	32	44	44→45	47→50	42	220/261/338	118	263	12	9	22%	5%	68	-1.0	223/263/321	98	256	8	12	16%	5%	63	-1.3	237/283/323	86	279	7	15	17%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Mike Rose 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	41→40	43	211/268/338	128	277	14	6	29%	7%	70	-0.8	215/268/327	112	304	12	10	31%	7%	68	-1.0	166/210/224	59	244	8	4	35%	5%	22	-0.8
✕J.C. Boscan 2013 · AAA	33	36	39→40	43→30	40	182/230/262	80	240	7	4	27%	5%	38	-3.2	185/232/248	63	243	4	5	25%	5%	36	-3.4	167/211/202	34	218	2	2	23%	5%	14	-1.4
✕Luis Flores 2019 · AAA	32	41	46→40	48→45	44	210/256/339	129	248	14	8	22%	6%	66	-1.1	229/274/379	150	269	17	9	22%	6%	82	+0.0	215/247/374	158	234	20	0	19%	4%	68	-0.2
✕Michael Pérez 2024 · MLB	31	33	47→50	45→40	46	180/252/303	123	227	16	4	29%	8%	57	-1.8	205/274/328	123	274	14	5	29%	7%	71	-0.8	182/256/298	116	243	13	0	29%	7%	55	-0.8