Javier Herrera

SS Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 22 S/R 5'10" / 160 lbs A HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#791ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKDSL LAD Bauti…200.288/.475/.48642076—.178/.323/.282
202520ROKLAD120.343/.437/.4220667—.241/.311/.296
202621A/ROKLAD321.270/.383/.39741476—.224/.310/.324
2027PROJMLE22MLBLAD431.211/.292/.30459710.1
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBLAD84.211/.293/.31312760.1
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBLAD150.215/.296/.32433800.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed93
BB%69
K%62
Chase%58
wOBA54
Whiff%54
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%
CompsBrainer Bonaci (age 21) · Juan Mora (age 22) · Michael De La Cruz (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 208 proj PA
wRC+†71
AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .290 / .302
PA208
HR2
K%26
BB%9
ISO94
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.30.40.30.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 37
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT42
scouting grade only
POWER37
scouting grade only
EYE59
scouting grade only
SPEED58
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-1$0.6M———
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $2M +$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202318 ROKDSL LAD Mega — 147122 29434 22382 72 238363418781 180309 2615 350 26 — — — — — —
202419 ROKDSL LAD Bautista — 200146 42754 50302 204 288475486961 199333 1525 426 76 — — — — — —
202520 ROKACL Dodgers — 120102 35610 15212 64 343437422859 78427 1812 388 67 — — — — — —
202621 AOntario Tower Buzzers — 276229 611043 40612 142 266380384764 118345 2214 343 78 — — — — — —
202621 ROKACL Dodgers — 4538 11211 5112 01 289400474874 184385 2411 390 62 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202318 ROK MLEDSL LAD Mega — 147129 17221 15472 72 132233202434 70190 3210 206 26 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL LAD Bautista — 200163 29532 33372 204 178323282605 104211 1816 280 76 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 120108 26410 9302 64 241311296607 56321 258 267 67 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEOntario Tower Buzzers — 276241 55842 28832 142 228314320633 91322 3010 283 78 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 4540 8111 3162 01 200289350639 150297 367 260 62 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL LAD Mega — 147129 17221 15472 72 132233202434 70195 3210 206 26 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWDSL LAD Mega — 147122 29434 22382 72 238363418781 180309 2615 350 26 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL LAD Bautista — 200163 29532 33372 204 178323282605 104214 1816 280 76 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWDSL LAD Bautista — 200146 42754 50302 204 288475486961 199333 1525 426 76 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 120108 26410 9302 64 241311296607 56329 258 267 67 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAWACL Dodgers — 120102 35610 15212 64 343437422859 78427 1812 388 67 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 321281 631043 31994 143 224310320630 96330 3110 280 75 — — — — — —
202621 A RAW2 teams — 321267 721254 45724 143 270383397780 127351 2214 350 75 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL LAD Mega — 147129 17221 15472 72 132233202434 70190 3210 206 26 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL LAD Bautista — 200163 29532 33372 204 178323282605 104211 1816 280 76 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 120108 26410 9302 64 241311296607 56321 258 267 67 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 321283 631043 31994 143 223310318628 95318 3110 280 75 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEDSL LAD Bautista — 200163 29532 33372 204 178323282605 104211 1816 280 76 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 120108 26410 9302 64 241311296607 56321 258 267 67 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 321283 631043 31994 143 223310318628 95318 3110 280 75 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLELAD 0% 431384 801535 401124 92 211292304597 94281 269 273 71 -15 +1 +0 +5 +9 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLELAD 34% 244217 48924 23632 51 215297320617 105283 269 281 76 -7 +1 +0 +3 +5 0.2
202924 MLB MLELAD 46% 326290 631225 30833 72 219300331631 112284 259 286 80 -8 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.3
203025 MLB MLELAD 52% 372330 731427 35944 82 221302338640 117285 259 290 82 -8 +1 +0 +4 +8 0.5
203126 MLB MLELAD 54% 399355 791528 371004 92 222303342645 120285 259 292 84 -8 +1 +0 +4 +9 0.6
203227 MLB MLELAD 54% 411366 811528 381034 92 223303343646 121285 259 292 84 -8 +1 +0 +4 +9 0.7
203328 MLB MLELAD 54% 411366 801528 381044 82 221301339640 118284 259 290 82 -9 +1 -1 +4 +9 0.5
203429 MLB MLELAD 53% 403359 781527 371034 72 219298333631 114283 269 286 80 -10 +1 -1 +4 +9 0.3
203530 MLB MLELAD 52% 393351 761427 361023 72 216295325620 110281 269 282 77 -11 +1 -2 +4 +9 0.0
202823 MLB CTXLAD 34% 8475 15301 8221 20 211293313606 102276 2610 277 76 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
202924 MLB CTXLAD 46% 150134 29513 14381 31 215296324621 110277 259 282 80 -4 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.2
203025 MLB CTXLAD 52% 192170 38714 18482 41 217298332630 115278 259 286 82 -4 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.3
203126 MLB CTXLAD 54% 216192 42814 20542 51 218299336635 118278 259 288 84 -4 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.3
203227 MLB CTXLAD 54% 223198 43814 21562 51 218299337636 119278 259 288 84 -4 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.4
203328 MLB CTXLAD 54% 223198 43814 21562 51 217297333630 116277 259 286 82 -5 +1 -0 +2 +5 0.3
203429 MLB CTXLAD 53% 214190 40714 20552 41 215295327622 112276 269 282 80 -5 +0 -1 +2 +5 0.1
203530 MLB CTXLAD 52% 206183 39714 19532 31 212291319611 108275 269 278 77 -6 +0 -1 +2 +4 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 15081340 28953728 14138214 317 216297328625 113279 259 284 77 -34 +3 -2 +16 +33 1.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 12523312 611656 133 216298329627 112280 259 284 77 -15 +1 -1 +7 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 39553500 7511372762 381101940 11129 215299322621 108282 2610 282 77 -75 +6 -4 +34 +69 3.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650575 12323410 631677 185 214300320620 106281 2610 282 77 -15 +1 -1 +7 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 276 PAwOBA .339 → .283 (−56)K% 22.1% → 30.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.10%÷1.000×1.360——30.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.49%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01510.15%
HBP% /PA0.72%—×0.780—×1.0150.57%
Singles /BIP26.19%÷1.000×0.920×1.020×1.01524.95%
Doubles /BIP5.95%÷1.000×0.830×1.020×1.0155.11%
Triples /BIP2.38%÷1.000×0.910×1.020×1.0152.24%
Home runs /BIP1.79%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0151.45%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .339 → .283; ISO .118 → .100; BABIP .345 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Dodgers · 45 PAwOBA .380 → .260 (−120)K% 24.4% → 35.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.44%÷1.000×1.440——35.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9856.79%
HBP% /PA4.44%—×0.720—×0.9853.15%
Singles /BIP25.93%÷1.000×0.820—×0.98520.94%
Doubles /BIP7.41%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9855.25%
Triples /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9852.63%
Home runs /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9852.85%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .380 → .260; ISO .184 → .124; BABIP .385 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 120 PAwOBA .382 → .267 (−115)K% 17.5% → 25.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.50%÷0.993×1.440——25.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷0.997×0.620—×0.9957.73%
HBP% /PA1.67%—×0.720—×0.9951.19%
Singles /BIP34.57%÷0.996×0.820×0.958×0.99527.12%
Doubles /BIP7.41%÷1.102×0.720×0.958×0.9954.61%
Triples /BIP1.23%÷1.060×0.720×0.958×0.9950.80%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.187×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 112, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .382 → .267; ISO .078 → .048; BABIP .427 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 200 PAwOBA .421 → .280 (−141)K% 15.0% → 18.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.00%÷0.994×1.220——18.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.00%÷1.051×0.700—×0.99516.57%
HBP% /PA1.00%—×0.700—×0.9950.70%
Singles /BIP22.41%÷0.998×0.680×0.996×0.99515.14%
Doubles /BIP6.03%÷0.963×0.600×0.996×0.9953.73%
Triples /BIP4.31%÷1.150×0.600×0.996×0.9952.23%
Home runs /BIP3.45%÷1.059×0.470—×0.9951.52%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 99, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .421 → .280; ISO .199 → .112; BABIP .333 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 147 PAwOBA .344 → .206 (−138)K% 25.9% → 32.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.85%÷0.978×1.220——32.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.97%÷1.050×0.700—×1.00810.06%
HBP% /PA1.36%—×0.700—×1.0080.96%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷0.998×0.680×0.950×1.00813.98%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷0.985×0.600×0.950×1.0082.78%
Triples /BIP3.57%÷0.937×0.600×0.950×1.0082.19%
Home runs /BIP4.76%÷1.325×0.470—×1.0081.70%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 165, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 87, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .344 → .206; ISO .180 → .084; BABIP .309 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).