Allan Castro

CF Worcester Red Sox

Age 24 S/R 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2030MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AA/A+BOS	530	.229/.347/.400	15	17	64	—	.189/.272/.327
2025	22	AA/INTL2 orgs	432	.267/.349/.403	8	15	80	—	.243/.306/.342
2026	23	AAA/INTL2 orgs	527	.246/.322/.391	16	21	67	—	.222/.279/.330
2027PROJ10% MLB	24	MLBBOS	21	.218/.280/.327	0	1	68	-0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB	25	MLBBOS	72	.221/.284/.336	1	2	71	-0.1
2029PROJ38% MLB	26	MLBBOS	115	.222/.286/.341	2	3	73	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Arb-2$0.4M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV84

K%75

Z-Con%73

Whiff%71

Speed64

Chase%51

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 68%

CompsJohn Tolisano (age 24) · Lolo Sanchez (age 24) · Arquímedes Gamboa (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .280 / .327

PA21

HR0

K%24

BB%10

BABIP268

ISO53

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	194	164	38	8	7	3	21	43	6	3	2	232	340	421	761	189	289	22	11	335	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	38	32	6	1	2	0	6	11	0	0	0	188	316	344	660	156	286	29	16	300	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	141	122	34	4	4	3	13	32	3	8	2	279	362	451	813	172	344	23	9	354	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	186	166	47	11	2	4	17	36	2	4	1	283	357	446	803	163	339	19	9	356	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	306	251	62	20	2	3	51	54	2	15	5	247	378	378	757	131	301	18	17	345	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	117	100	18	2	0	1	13	30	1	6	3	180	281	230	511	50	236	26	11	240	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	413	345	84	21	4	14	61	94	5	11	2	243	365	449	814	206	293	23	15	362	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	388	340	91	20	2	7	44	79	2	15	3	268	355	400	755	132	328	20	11	340	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Toros del Este	—	44	42	11	4	0	1	2	11	0	0	0	262	295	429	724	167	333	25	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	505	448	113	18	1	15	51	92	0	20	6	252	329	397	726	145	282	18	10	323	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Toros del Este	—	22	20	2	0	0	1	2	3	0	1	0	100	182	250	432	150	62	14	9	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	194	170	24	5	4	1	15	52	6	3	2	141	236	235	471	94	178	27	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	38	34	4	1	1	0	4	16	0	0	0	118	211	206	416	88	259	42	11	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	141	128	24	2	3	2	7	46	3	8	2	188	246	297	543	109	255	33	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	186	173	41	9	2	4	10	48	2	4	1	237	286	382	668	145	294	26	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	306	267	54	17	2	2	35	75	2	15	5	202	299	303	603	101	267	25	11	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	117	104	19	2	0	1	9	35	1	6	3	183	254	231	485	48	241	30	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	413	367	70	16	4	12	39	128	5	11	2	191	277	354	632	163	248	31	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	388	354	86	16	2	5	30	99	2	15	3	243	306	342	648	99	314	26	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	505	463	103	15	1	11	36	111	0	20	6	222	279	330	609	108	260	22	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	194	170	24	5	4	1	15	52	6	3	2	141	236	235	471	94	192	27	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	—	194	164	38	8	7	3	21	43	6	3	2	232	340	421	761	189	289	22	11	335	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	179	161	28	3	4	2	12	62	3	8	2	174	244	280	524	106	260	35	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	179	154	40	5	6	3	19	43	3	8	2	260	352	429	781	169	333	24	11	343	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	492	440	94	26	3	6	45	123	4	19	6	214	292	327	620	114	280	25	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	492	417	109	31	4	7	68	90	4	19	6	261	370	405	775	144	316	18	14	349	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	530	470	87	17	4	12	49	164	6	17	5	185	270	315	585	130	251	31	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	530	445	102	23	4	15	74	124	6	17	5	229	347	400	747	171	280	23	14	335	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	394	95	17	2	6	34	110	2	15	3	241	305	340	645	99	318	25	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	432	382	102	24	2	8	46	90	2	15	3	267	349	403	752	136	329	21	11	337	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	527	483	108	16	1	12	38	115	0	21	6	224	280	335	616	112	265	22	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	527	468	115	18	1	16	53	95	0	21	6	246	322	391	713	145	273	18	10	318	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	194	171	24	5	4	1	15	52	6	3	2	140	236	234	470	94	178	27	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	179	162	28	3	4	2	12	62	3	8	2	173	244	278	522	105	256	35	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	492	440	94	26	3	6	45	123	4	19	6	214	292	327	620	114	277	25	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	530	470	87	17	4	12	49	164	6	17	5	185	270	315	585	130	246	31	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	393	95	17	2	6	34	110	2	15	3	242	305	341	646	99	314	25	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	527	484	108	16	1	12	38	115	0	21	6	223	280	335	615	112	260	22	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	530	470	87	17	4	12	49	164	6	17	5	185	270	315	585	130	246	31	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	393	95	17	2	6	34	110	2	15	3	242	305	341	646	99	314	25	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	527	484	108	16	1	12	38	115	0	21	6	223	280	335	615	112	260	22	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	10%	380	347	72	12	1	7	29	88	1	11	3	212	275	319	594	107	260	23	8	268	68	-15	+1	-0	+1	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	10%	21	19	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	218	280	327	608	110	268	24	10	274	68	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	28%	260	237	51	9	1	5	20	60	1	8	2	215	279	328	607	113	262	23	8	273	71	-9	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	38%	305	277	60	10	1	7	24	70	1	9	2	216	281	333	614	116	263	23	8	276	73	-10	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	42%	321	292	63	11	1	7	25	74	1	9	3	217	282	334	616	117	264	23	8	277	74	-10	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	45%	328	298	64	11	1	7	26	77	1	8	2	217	282	333	615	117	265	23	8	277	74	-10	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	45%	321	292	63	11	1	7	25	76	1	6	2	216	281	331	613	115	265	24	8	276	73	-10	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	46%	314	285	61	11	1	6	25	75	1	5	2	213	278	324	602	111	263	24	8	272	70	-11	+0	-2	+1	+7	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	28%	72	66	14	3	0	1	6	17	0	2	1	221	284	336	620	115	270	24	8	279	71	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	38%	115	105	22	4	0	2	9	27	0	3	1	222	286	341	627	119	272	23	8	282	73	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	42%	135	122	27	5	0	3	11	31	1	4	1	223	288	342	630	119	273	23	8	283	74	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	45%	147	133	30	6	0	3	12	34	1	3	1	223	288	342	629	119	273	23	8	283	74	-5	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	45%	145	132	29	6	0	3	11	34	1	3	1	222	287	340	626	118	274	23	8	282	73	-5	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	46%	143	130	28	5	0	3	11	34	1	2	1	219	283	332	616	113	272	24	8	277	70	-5	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	757	688	150	29	0	15	60	177	4	17	6	218	285	326	610	108	269	23	8	281	68	-25	+1	-2	+3	+16	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	129	25	0	13	52	152	3	15	5	218	285	327	611	108	270	23	8	281	68	-21	+1	-1	+2	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4413	3990	839	154	25	82	354	1107	28	134	39	210	279	323	602	113	267	25	8	269	68	-69	+4	-4	+7	+45	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	124	23	4	12	52	163	4	20	6	211	280	325	604	114	268	25	8	269	68	-22	+1	-1	+2	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 505 PAwOBA .317 → .270 (−47)K% 18.2% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.22%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.90%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.17%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.19%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.973	×1.050	21.10%
Doubles /BIP	5.06%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.973	×1.050	4.29%
Triples /BIP	0.28%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.973	×1.050	0.28%
Home runs /BIP	4.21%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .317 → .270; ISO .145 → .113; BABIP .282 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 388 PAwOBA .333 → .283 (−50)K% 20.4% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.36%	÷0.978	×1.220	—	—	25.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.34%	÷1.055	×0.700	—	×1.042	7.84%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.46%
Singles /BIP	23.75%	÷0.962	×0.970	×0.974	×1.042	24.31%
Doubles /BIP	7.66%	÷1.109	×0.860	×0.974	×1.042	6.03%
Triples /BIP	0.77%	÷1.141	×0.950	×0.974	×1.042	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	2.68%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×1.042	1.95%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .333 → .283; ISO .132 → .100; BABIP .328 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 413 PAwOBA .353 → .274 (−79)K% 22.8% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.76%	÷0.960	×1.310	—	—	31.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷0.924	×0.600	—	×1.027	9.53%
HBP% /PA	1.21%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	0.96%
Singles /BIP	17.93%	÷1.013	×0.870	×1.000	×1.027	15.81%
Doubles /BIP	8.37%	÷1.037	×0.780	×1.000	×1.027	6.46%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷0.927	×0.850	×1.000	×1.027	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	5.58%	÷1.043	×0.880	—	×1.027	4.83%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .353 → .274; ISO .206 → .168; BABIP .293 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 117 PAwOBA .240 → .219 (−22)K% 25.6% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.64%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	30.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.025	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.97%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.76%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.004	×0.970	×1.038	×1.050	22.57%
Doubles /BIP	2.86%	÷1.165	×0.860	×1.038	×1.050	2.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.038	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.43%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.15%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .240 → .219; ISO .050 → .041; BABIP .236 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 306 PAwOBA .340 → .273 (−66)K% 17.6% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷0.982	×1.360	—	—	24.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷1.052	×0.690	—	×1.030	11.26%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.53%
Singles /BIP	18.78%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.965	×1.030	16.79%
Doubles /BIP	10.15%	÷0.942	×0.830	×0.965	×1.030	8.89%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.965	×1.030	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	1.52%	÷0.999	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.26%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .340 → .273; ISO .131 → .113; BABIP .301 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 186 PAwOBA .348 → .281 (−67)K% 19.4% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.35%	÷0.981	×1.310	—	—	25.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.14%	÷1.028	×0.600	—	×1.042	5.56%
HBP% /PA	1.08%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	0.86%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.053	×0.870	×1.035	×1.042	20.58%
Doubles /BIP	8.46%	÷1.033	×0.780	×1.035	×1.042	6.89%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷1.150	×0.850	×1.035	×1.042	1.23%
Home runs /BIP	3.08%	÷0.931	×0.880	—	×1.042	3.03%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .348 → .281; ISO .163 → .140; BABIP .339 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 141 PAwOBA .352 → .243 (−109)K% 22.7% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.70%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	32.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.22%	÷1.080	×0.620	—	×1.008	5.33%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.54%
Singles /BIP	25.56%	÷1.010	×0.820	×0.950	×1.008	19.85%
Doubles /BIP	4.44%	÷1.229	×0.720	×0.950	×1.008	2.49%
Triples /BIP	4.44%	÷0.908	×0.720	×0.950	×1.008	3.37%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷0.943	×0.780	—	×1.008	2.78%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 102, 2B 146, 3B 82, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .352 → .243; ISO .172 → .123; BABIP .344 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 38 PAwOBA .294 → .219 (−75)K% 28.9% → 42.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.95%	÷0.930	×1.360	—	—	42.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.045	11.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.026	×0.920	—	×1.045	13.38%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷0.950	×0.830	—	×1.045	4.35%
Triples /BIP	9.52%	÷1.106	×0.910	—	×1.045	8.19%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.873	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .294 → .219; ISO .156 → .113; BABIP .286 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#4Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Herm Winningham'84-'92 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,069 PA	3.1	2,069	19	105	238*	296*	357*	+1	-3	-0.5	0.2
/162	664	6	34	+0.3	-1.1	-0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	779	17	18	216	278	332	+3	+0	-0.0	0.0
/162	664	14	15	+2.4	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 0
#6Joe Simpson'75-'83 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	9	45	237*	289*	336*	-9	+2	-2.3	-1.8
/162	664	4	20	-4.0	+1.1	-1.0	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Allan Castro (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	210/273/317	107	260	4	6	23%	8%	68	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Tolisano 2013 · AA	24	44→48	45	46→50	47	219/282/350	131	275	12	14	25%	8%	78	-0.3	204/268/322	118	268	11	9	27%	8%	67	-1.1	175/243/283	108	234	11	3	29%	8%	47	-1.0
✕Lolo Sanchez 2023 · AA	24	43→45	44→45	50→55	50	214/293/323	108	257	12	18	21%	9%	77	-0.3	206/277/287	81	252	7	10	20%	8%	62	-1.4	191/265/252	61	231	5	7	18%	8%	47	-1.0
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2022 · AAA	24	41→44	41→40	52→50	48	197/277/294	96	279	9	14	30%	10%	64	-1.3	209/289/307	98	301	8	14	30%	10%	72	-0.7	202/287/292	90	293	7	15	31%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Nick Allen 2023 · MLB	24	47→57	40	47→50	46	226/282/319	93	278	8	13	21%	7%	71	-0.8	244/302/334	90	290	7	16	17%	7%	81	-0.1	253/316/328	75	310	5	13	19%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Jeff Duncan 2004 · MLB	25	43→45	41→45	50→60	49	211/285/302	92	270	9	13	24%	8%	69	-0.9	221/288/323	102	285	9	18	24%	8%	74	-0.5	228/294/307	79	296	7	21	24%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Kaden Polcovich 2023 · AA	24	41	45	55	46	204/286/328	124	274	13	16	29%	8%	76	-0.4	199/283/311	112	277	10	18	30%	9%	71	-0.8	172/267/273	101	245	8	23	30%	10%	54	-0.7
✕Luke Williams 2021 · AA	24	42→44	42→45	52→65	44	208/270/316	107	274	9	20	27%	7%	65	-1.2	229/287/323	94	314	7	28	27%	7%	74	-0.6	229/291/325	96	311	8	37	27%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Danny Mendick 2019 · AA	25	42→47	43→45	46→50	47	210/273/321	111	251	11	13	21%	7%	68	-1.0	226/287/344	118	276	13	12	22%	7%	79	-0.2	237/296/342	105	299	11	4	23%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2024 · MLB	25	44→49	48→55	52→50	45	223/281/364	141	278	16	16	26%	7%	81	-0.1	235/291/347	112	288	13	11	22%	7%	80	-0.1	241/292/345	104	296	13	9	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Riley Unroe 2021 · AAA	25	46→47	41→45	48→55	45	222/284/321	99	298	9	12	27%	7%	72	-0.7	216/284/326	110	281	10	17	25%	8%	74	-0.6	218/301/329	112	292	11	26	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Dom Nuñez 2019 · AA	24	40→46	43→50	46→45	48	201/272/303	103	253	12	9	25%	8%	64	-1.3	198/280/354	156	269	18	7	32%	9%	80	-0.2	169/260/321	153	231	17	2	33%	10%	65	-0.6
✕Edson Garcia 2017 · AAA	24	47→50	39→40	46→45	50	224/284/317	93	257	6	11	16%	7%	71	-0.8	228/286/344	116	268	10	10	18%	6%	78	-0.3	222/286/339	117	266	10	9	20%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Darwin Perez 2013 · AAA	24	46→53	38→40	51→50	45	221/281/301	81	292	6	16	26%	7%	66	-1.1	210/273/297	87	292	6	16	28%	7%	62	-1.4	197/266/274	76	281	4	18	29%	8%	53	-1.6
✕Travis Jones 2010 · AA	24	44→48	44→45	49→50	47	218/292/338	119	284	11	16	26%	8%	80	-0.2	213/280/325	112	292	11	13	29%	7%	72	-0.7	183/250/291	108	248	13	10	31%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Brennen Davis 2024 · AAA	24	37→43	43→50	46→45	41	187/271/296	108	268	12	11	33%	7%	63	-1.3	200/289/350	150	264	19	8	31%	8%	83	+0.1	188/287/362	173	236	23	4	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Felix Valerio 2024 · AA	23	42→49	43→45	51→55	46	208/270/320	112	252	11	19	22%	7%	68	-1.0	210/274/309	99	281	9	14	27%	7%	66	-1.1	194/271/263	69	269	6	16	28%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Tim Raines Jr. 2004 · MLB	24	44→54	44→50	53→60	46	217/284/340	123	275	11	11	25%	7%	77	-0.3	235/278/338	103	301	8	25	23%	5%	73	-0.6	259/292/391	133	318	13	32	23%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Jan Vázquez 2015 · AA	24	42	43→40	45	39	207/264/310	103	288	12	9	31%	6%	63	-1.4	216/286/306	90	294	7	8	27%	7%	70	-0.8	217/296/305	87	288	7	7	25%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Marcus Littlewood 2016 · AA	24	39	45	46→45	47	200/265/319	119	254	12	5	26%	8%	65	-1.2	211/267/316	105	279	10	5	26%	7%	64	-1.3	200/256/292	92	266	8	2	27%	7%	53	-1.0
✕Kaleb Cowart 2016 · MLB	24	46→53	41→45	52→50	43	221/276/323	102	299	8	15	28%	7%	69	-0.9	228/279/351	123	304	10	16	27%	6%	77	-0.3	224/277/349	125	284	11	14	25%	6%	73	-0.5

Allan Castro

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps