Marcus Littlewood
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 251 | .280/.382/.379 | 0 | 2 | 87 | — | .253/.325/.346 |
| 2017 | 25 | AASEA | 300 | .242/.278/.377 | 9 | 1 | 42 | — | .204/.231/.309 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 265 | .198/.305/.313 | 6 | 1 | 33 | — | .160/.237/.239 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 106 | 95 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 158 | 238 | 211 | 449 | 53 | 194 | 22 | 9 | 212 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 256 | 213 | 49 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 352 | 366 | 718 | 136 | 301 | 23 | 16 | 325 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 36 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 278 | 394 | 672 | 182 | 250 | 22 | 8 | 298 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 337 | 292 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 58 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 344 | 394 | 738 | 144 | 284 | 17 | 12 | 331 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 221 | 195 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 231 | 309 | 390 | 698 | 159 | 253 | 19 | 10 | 308 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 67 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 318 | 315 | 633 | 148 | 200 | 27 | 18 | 293 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 26 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 160 | 45 | 205 | 67 | 27 | 12 | 115 | -56 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 225 | 192 | 59 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 307 | 406 | 417 | 823 | 109 | 388 | 18 | 14 | 372 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 300 | 281 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 278 | 377 | 655 | 135 | 282 | 22 | 5 | 287 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 80 | 69 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 304 | 377 | 681 | 174 | 279 | 31 | 11 | 303 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 185 | 158 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 306 | 285 | 591 | 89 | 227 | 19 | 14 | 275 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 19 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 106 | 99 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 141 | 190 | 192 | 382 | 51 | 182 | 28 | 6 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 256 | 225 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 277 | 284 | 561 | 98 | 267 | 32 | 11 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 36 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 194 | 294 | 489 | 147 | 218 | 33 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 337 | 307 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 269 | 316 | 585 | 111 | 246 | 23 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 221 | 201 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 263 | 338 | 601 | 134 | 229 | 23 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 67 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 138 | 242 | 276 | 518 | 138 | 179 | 36 | 12 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 26 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 120 | 43 | 163 | 64 | 35 | 8 | 86 | -56 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 225 | 202 | 56 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 277 | 348 | 381 | 729 | 104 | 361 | 22 | 10 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 300 | 285 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 231 | 309 | 539 | 105 | 249 | 28 | 3 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 80 | 72 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 228 | 264 | 492 | 111 | 226 | 41 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 185 | 166 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 240 | 229 | 469 | 66 | 198 | 24 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 106 | 99 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 141 | 190 | 192 | 382 | 51 | 188 | 28 | 6 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 106 | 95 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 158 | 238 | 211 | 449 | 53 | 194 | 22 | 9 | 212 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 256 | 225 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 277 | 284 | 561 | 98 | 280 | 32 | 11 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 256 | 213 | 49 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 352 | 366 | 718 | 136 | 301 | 23 | 16 | 325 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 340 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 265 | 306 | 571 | 106 | 250 | 24 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 373 | 325 | 80 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 43 | 66 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 246 | 338 | 394 | 732 | 148 | 281 | 18 | 12 | 328 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 259 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 76 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 185 | 254 | 317 | 571 | 131 | 223 | 26 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 288 | 249 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 59 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 217 | 311 | 373 | 684 | 157 | 243 | 20 | 12 | 305 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 225 | 57 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 59 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 253 | 325 | 347 | 672 | 93 | 341 | 24 | 10 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 251 | 214 | 60 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 48 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 280 | 382 | 379 | 760 | 98 | 359 | 19 | 14 | 345 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 300 | 285 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 231 | 309 | 539 | 105 | 258 | 28 | 3 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 300 | 281 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 278 | 377 | 655 | 135 | 282 | 22 | 5 | 287 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 265 | 238 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 160 | 237 | 248 | 485 | 88 | 210 | 29 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 265 | 227 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 305 | 313 | 618 | 115 | 241 | 23 | 13 | 284 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 106 | 99 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 141 | 190 | 192 | 382 | 51 | 182 | 28 | 6 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 256 | 226 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 277 | 283 | 560 | 97 | 267 | 32 | 11 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 340 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 265 | 306 | 571 | 106 | 243 | 24 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 262 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 76 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 183 | 254 | 313 | 567 | 130 | 217 | 26 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 225 | 57 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 59 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 253 | 325 | 347 | 672 | 93 | 330 | 24 | 10 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 300 | 287 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 231 | 307 | 537 | 105 | 249 | 28 | 3 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 265 | 239 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 159 | 237 | 247 | 484 | 88 | 206 | 29 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1839 | 1671 | 325 | 72 | 5 | 29 | 143 | 497 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 194 | 259 | 296 | 555 | 101 | 255 | 27 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -106 | +1 | +0 | +33 | +40 | -3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 176 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 193 | 259 | 293 | 551 | 100 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -37 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAJackson Generals · 185 PAwOBA .270 → .217 (−54)K% 19.5% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.46% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.51% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 9.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.49% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 18.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷0.954 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.72% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 129, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .217; ISO .089 → .074; BABIP .227 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAReno Aces · 80 PAwOBA .299 → .216 (−83)K% 31.2% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷0.991 | ×1.290 | — | — | 40.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.25% | ÷1.069 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 7.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷1.024 | ×0.900 | ×0.992 | ×1.018 | 14.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.117 | ×0.810 | ×0.992 | ×1.018 | 6.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.992 | ×1.018 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.044 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 105, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .299 → .216; ISO .174 → .119; BABIP .279 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAArkansas Travelers · 300 PAwOBA .283 → .230 (−52)K% 22.3% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.33% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.67% | ÷1.005 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.43% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 20.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.14% | ÷0.993 | ×0.840 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.024 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .283 → .230; ISO .135 → .103; BABIP .282 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAJackson Generals · 225 PAwOBA .365 → .320 (−45)K% 18.2% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.22% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.22% | ÷1.011 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 9.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.17% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 22.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.91% | ÷0.889 | ×0.910 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 13.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.880 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 78, 3B 128, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .365 → .320; ISO .109 → .110; BABIP .388 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAATacoma Rainiers · 26 PAwOBA .113 → .086 (−27)K% 26.9% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷1.041 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.115 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.987 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.048 | 6.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.901 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.063 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.896 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 97, 2B 80, 3B 113, K 108, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .113 → .086; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .067 → .064. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAJackson Generals · 221 PAwOBA .304 → .263 (−41)K% 18.6% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.55% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.95% | ÷0.950 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 16.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.890 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.20% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .304 → .263; ISO .159 → .143; BABIP .253 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 67 PAwOBA .284 → .226 (−59)K% 26.9% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.87% | ÷0.988 | ×1.340 | — | — | 36.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.42% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 11.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.89% | ÷0.995 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 12.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.930 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.998 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.077 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 4.74% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .284 → .226; ISO .148 → .123; BABIP .200 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AClinton LumberKings · 337 PAwOBA .325 → .255 (−69)K% 17.2% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.21% | ÷1.018 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.57% | ÷1.068 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.94% | ÷0.999 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | — | 18.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.98% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | — | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | — | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.129 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 105, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .325 → .255; ISO .144 → .109; BABIP .284 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).