Peyton Wilson
2B Omaha Storm Chasers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AANorthwest Ark… | 517 | .228/.340/.380 | 14 | 22 | 60 | — | .186/.267/.311 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 410 | .259/.356/.389 | 5 | 20 | 70 | — | .217/.293/.328 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/ROKKC | 385 | .276/.359/.433 | 8 | 17 | 77 | — | .234/.296/.354 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBKC | 16 | .198/.270/.303 | 0 | 1 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBKC | 69 | .198/.270/.303 | 1 | 2 | 65 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 46 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 359 | 692 | 128 | 300 | 22 | 9 | 310 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals Gold | — | 45 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 200 | 364 | 429 | 792 | 229 | 250 | 24 | 13 | 350 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 390 | 340 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 97 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 268 | 360 | 456 | 816 | 188 | 335 | 25 | 11 | 363 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 562 | 489 | 140 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 101 | 10 | 19 | 7 | 286 | 369 | 411 | 780 | 125 | 345 | 18 | 10 | 348 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 101 | 81 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 272 | 398 | 432 | 830 | 160 | 323 | 19 | 16 | 364 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 517 | 439 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 115 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 228 | 340 | 380 | 721 | 153 | 275 | 22 | 13 | 327 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 319 | 278 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 85 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 223 | 312 | 309 | 621 | 86 | 306 | 27 | 11 | 284 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 91 | 74 | 29 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 392 | 505 | 689 | 1.195 | 297 | 491 | 19 | 14 | 511 | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 366 | 323 | 89 | 29 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 94 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 276 | 359 | 430 | 789 | 155 | 369 | 26 | 11 | 353 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 19 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 286 | 353 | 500 | 853 | 214 | 231 | 11 | 11 | 326 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 46 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 175 | 267 | 275 | 542 | 100 | 266 | 30 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals Gold | — | 45 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 162 | 295 | 351 | 647 | 189 | 186 | 36 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 390 | 355 | 77 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 121 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 217 | 285 | 352 | 637 | 135 | 298 | 31 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 562 | 506 | 127 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 121 | 10 | 19 | 7 | 251 | 317 | 358 | 675 | 107 | 307 | 22 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 517 | 463 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 142 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 186 | 267 | 311 | 578 | 125 | 233 | 27 | 9 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 319 | 286 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 101 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 182 | 255 | 248 | 503 | 66 | 260 | 32 | 8 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 91 | 79 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 342 | 429 | 608 | 1.036 | 266 | 433 | 22 | 9 | 425 | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 366 | 335 | 78 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 233 | 296 | 349 | 645 | 116 | 331 | 31 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 19 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 294 | 438 | 732 | 188 | 180 | 16 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 91 | 78 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 179 | 281 | 333 | 614 | 154 | 265 | 33 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 91 | 74 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 216 | 348 | 392 | 740 | 176 | 278 | 23 | 11 | 330 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 390 | 355 | 77 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 121 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 217 | 285 | 352 | 637 | 135 | 298 | 31 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 390 | 340 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 97 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 268 | 360 | 456 | 816 | 188 | 335 | 25 | 11 | 363 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 663 | 596 | 150 | 31 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 143 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 252 | 317 | 359 | 676 | 107 | 315 | 22 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 663 | 570 | 162 | 38 | 6 | 8 | 71 | 120 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 284 | 374 | 414 | 788 | 130 | 342 | 18 | 11 | 350 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 517 | 463 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 142 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 186 | 267 | 311 | 578 | 125 | 237 | 27 | 9 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 517 | 439 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 115 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 228 | 340 | 380 | 721 | 153 | 275 | 22 | 13 | 327 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 365 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 121 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 214 | 291 | 323 | 615 | 110 | 305 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 410 | 352 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 102 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 259 | 356 | 389 | 745 | 131 | 347 | 25 | 11 | 334 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 351 | 81 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 116 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 231 | 293 | 350 | 644 | 120 | 325 | 30 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 385 | 337 | 93 | 29 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 96 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 276 | 359 | 433 | 792 | 157 | 362 | 25 | 11 | 352 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 91 | 80 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 175 | 281 | 325 | 606 | 150 | 226 | 33 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 390 | 353 | 77 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 121 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 218 | 285 | 354 | 639 | 136 | 298 | 31 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 663 | 601 | 150 | 31 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 143 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 250 | 317 | 356 | 673 | 106 | 307 | 22 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 517 | 461 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 142 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 187 | 267 | 312 | 579 | 126 | 233 | 27 | 9 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 367 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 121 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 213 | 291 | 322 | 613 | 109 | 298 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 351 | 81 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 116 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 231 | 293 | 350 | 644 | 120 | 324 | 30 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 517 | 461 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 142 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 187 | 267 | 312 | 579 | 126 | 233 | 27 | 9 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 367 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 121 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 213 | 291 | 322 | 613 | 109 | 298 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 351 | 81 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 116 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 231 | 293 | 350 | 644 | 120 | 324 | 30 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 10% | 380 | 343 | 69 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 111 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 200 | 272 | 308 | 580 | 109 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 270 | 303 | 573 | 105 | 272 | 31 | 6 | 261 | 64 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 31% | 222 | 200 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 64 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 272 | 309 | 581 | 109 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 31% | 69 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 198 | 270 | 303 | 574 | 105 | 272 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 65 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 261 | 286 | 547 | 95 | 262 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 72 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 112 | 28 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 188 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 189 | 258 | 282 | 540 | 93 | 260 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 72 | -27 | +4 | -2 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2833 | 2548 | 554 | 123 | 21 | 45 | 214 | 782 | 44 | 121 | 28 | 217 | 289 | 335 | 625 | 118 | 292 | 28 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -16 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 127 | 28 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 179 | 10 | 28 | 6 | 217 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 116 | 292 | 28 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -27 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 366 PAwOBA .344 → .280 (−64)K% 25.7% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.007 | ×1.003 | 21.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×1.003 | 10.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.15% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .344 → .280; ISO .155 → .118; BABIP .369 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Royals · 19 PAwOBA .354 → .304 (−50)K% 10.5% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 15.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 6.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 19.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 6.11% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .354 → .304; ISO .214 → .196; BABIP .231 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 319 PAwOBA .279 → .227 (−53)K% 26.6% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.65% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.66% | ÷0.935 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.32% | ÷1.108 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 19.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.018 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.10% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .279 → .227; ISO .086 → .069; BABIP .306 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 91 PAwOBA .498 → .425 (−73)K% 18.7% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.68% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.40% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 3.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 23.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.04% | ÷0.984 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 11.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.02% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 7.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.077 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.58% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .498 → .425; ISO .297 → .270; BABIP .491 → .433. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 517 PAwOBA .320 → .257 (−63)K% 22.2% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.24% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.96% | ÷1.056 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.75% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.86% | ÷1.025 | ×0.840 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.32% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.75% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .320 → .257; ISO .153 → .133; BABIP .275 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 562 PAwOBA .343 → .295 (−48)K% 18.0% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.97% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.79% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.74% | ÷1.055 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 22.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.29% | ÷1.062 | ×0.940 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.872 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .343 → .295; ISO .125 → .108; BABIP .345 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 390 PAwOBA .354 → .281 (−74)K% 24.9% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.87% | ÷1.016 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷1.125 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.87% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 22.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.028 | ×0.810 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.920 | ×0.850 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.76% | ÷1.047 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.39% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 103, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .354 → .281; ISO .188 → .144; BABIP .335 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AColumbia Fireflies · 46 PAwOBA .309 → .249 (−60)K% 21.7% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | — | — | 15.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | — | — | 8.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.055 | ×0.910 | — | — | 2.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.237 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 103, 2B 92, 3B 111, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .249; ISO .128 → .106; BABIP .300 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .