Noah Miller

SS Oklahoma City Comets

Age 24 S/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#898ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AA/A+LAD	590	.244/.320/.315	6	7	49	—	.212/.269/.270
2025	22	AAA/AA/ROKLAD	384	.260/.306/.362	5	1	64	—	.247/.277/.333
2026	23	AAALAD	583	.254/.325/.400	12	6	75	—	.234/.286/.352
2027PROJ10% MLB	24	MLBLAD	21	.224/.270/.320	0	0	69	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	25	MLBLAD	86	.226/.275/.331	1	1	73	0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	26	MLBLAD	141	.227/.278/.337	3	1	75	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Z-Con%81

Speed79

Whiff%76

K%75

Max EV69

BB%37

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 9.9, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 80%

CompsManuel Bobadilla (age 24) · Yonathan Mendoza (age 24) · Jose R. Flores (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .270 / .320

PA21

HR0

K%19

BB%5

BABIP273

ISO50

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	96	84	20	3	1	2	9	26	1	1	1	238	319	369	688	131	316	27	9	305	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	469	383	81	12	4	2	76	110	6	23	7	211	351	279	630	68	287	23	16	300	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	526	462	103	20	5	8	58	108	1	12	3	223	311	340	651	117	271	21	11	295	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	136	129	29	5	0	0	6	28	0	2	2	225	259	264	523	39	284	21	4	238	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Great Lakes Loons	—	454	395	99	14	0	6	49	66	4	5	1	251	339	332	670	81	284	15	11	306	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	242	227	54	12	0	4	11	44	0	1	0	238	273	344	617	106	273	18	5	272	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	111	103	30	3	1	1	6	24	1	0	0	291	333	369	702	78	372	22	5	316	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	31	24	8	2	1	0	6	1	0	0	0	333	467	500	967	167	333	3	19	416	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	583	515	131	21	9	12	54	105	0	6	0	254	325	400	725	146	291	18	9	317	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	96	87	15	2	1	1	6	38	1	1	1	172	234	253	487	80	259	40	6	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	469	406	72	10	4	2	53	151	6	23	7	177	282	236	518	59	266	32	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	526	476	90	15	4	6	44	140	1	12	3	189	259	275	534	86	249	27	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	136	131	25	4	0	0	4	36	0	2	2	191	215	221	436	31	256	26	3	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	454	411	90	12	0	5	34	85	4	5	1	219	285	285	570	66	257	19	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	242	231	53	11	0	3	7	52	0	1	0	229	252	316	568	87	272	21	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	111	106	30	3	1	1	4	30	1	0	0	283	315	358	674	75	371	27	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	31	27	7	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	259	333	370	704	111	247	3	10	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	583	531	124	18	9	9	39	126	0	6	0	234	286	352	638	119	275	22	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	96	87	15	2	1	1	6	38	1	1	1	172	234	253	487	80	286	40	6	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	96	84	20	3	1	2	9	26	1	1	1	238	319	369	688	131	316	27	9	305	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	469	406	72	10	4	2	53	151	6	23	7	177	282	236	518	59	272	32	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	469	383	81	12	4	2	76	110	6	23	7	211	351	279	630	68	287	23	16	300	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	526	476	90	15	4	6	44	140	1	12	3	189	259	275	534	86	251	27	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	526	462	103	20	5	8	58	108	1	12	3	223	311	340	651	117	271	21	11	295	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	590	542	115	16	0	5	38	121	4	7	3	212	269	269	538	57	261	21	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	590	524	128	19	0	6	55	94	4	7	3	244	320	315	635	71	284	16	9	291	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	384	364	89	15	2	4	14	83	1	1	0	245	274	330	604	85	301	22	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	384	354	92	17	2	5	23	69	1	1	0	260	306	362	668	102	305	18	6	296	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	583	531	124	18	9	9	39	126	0	6	0	234	286	352	638	119	283	22	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	—	583	515	131	21	9	12	54	105	0	6	0	254	325	400	725	146	291	18	9	317	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	96	89	15	2	1	1	6	38	1	1	1	169	234	247	481	79	259	40	6	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	469	407	72	10	4	2	53	151	6	23	7	177	282	236	518	59	266	32	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	526	476	90	15	4	6	44	140	1	12	3	189	259	275	534	86	249	27	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	590	543	115	16	0	5	38	121	4	7	3	212	269	269	538	57	257	21	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	384	366	89	15	2	4	14	83	1	1	0	243	274	328	602	85	299	22	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	583	539	124	18	9	9	39	126	0	6	0	230	286	347	633	117	275	22	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	590	543	115	16	0	5	38	121	4	7	3	212	269	269	538	57	257	21	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	384	366	89	15	2	4	14	83	1	1	0	243	274	328	602	85	299	22	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	583	539	124	18	9	9	39	126	0	6	0	230	286	347	633	117	275	22	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAD	10%	380	354	81	13	4	5	22	81	1	3	0	228	275	329	604	100	280	21	6	270	69	-14	+1	+5	+4	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAD	10%	21	20	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	224	270	320	591	97	273	19	5	265	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAD	33%	260	241	55	9	2	4	16	56	1	2	0	231	279	339	618	108	281	22	6	276	73	-8	+0	+3	+3	+6	0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAD	46%	305	282	66	11	3	5	19	65	1	2	0	232	282	345	627	113	281	21	6	280	75	-9	+0	+4	+3	+7	0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAD	52%	321	297	69	11	3	6	20	69	1	2	0	232	283	345	628	114	281	21	6	280	76	-9	+0	+4	+3	+7	0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAD	56%	328	303	71	12	3	6	21	72	1	1	0	231	283	344	627	113	281	22	6	280	76	-9	+0	+4	+4	+7	0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAD	56%	321	296	68	11	3	6	21	71	1	0	0	229	282	342	624	112	281	22	7	279	75	-10	+0	+3	+3	+7	0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	314	290	65	11	2	5	20	71	1	0	0	227	279	335	613	108	279	23	6	275	72	-10	+0	+2	+3	+7	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAD	33%	86	81	18	3	1	1	5	18	0	1	0	226	275	331	606	105	274	21	6	271	73	-3	+0	+1	+1	+2	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAD	46%	141	131	30	5	1	3	9	30	0	1	0	227	278	337	615	110	274	21	6	275	75	-4	+0	+2	+2	+3	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAD	52%	167	154	35	6	1	3	11	36	0	1	0	227	279	338	617	111	275	22	7	276	76	-5	+0	+2	+2	+4	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAD	56%	182	167	37	6	1	3	12	40	1	1	0	226	279	337	616	111	274	22	7	276	76	-5	+0	+2	+2	+4	0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAD	56%	180	165	37	6	1	3	12	40	1	0	0	225	278	335	613	110	274	22	7	274	75	-5	+0	+2	+2	+4	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	178	165	37	6	1	3	11	40	0	0	0	222	275	328	602	105	273	22	6	270	72	-6	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	934	863	194	32	6	16	60	204	2	4	0	225	277	331	608	107	275	22	6	274	64	-28	+1	+10	+10	+20	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	134	22	4	11	42	142	1	3	0	223	275	328	603	105	273	22	6	274	64	-20	+1	+7	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4707	4311	944	148	38	62	323	1108	19	59	14	219	276	314	590	95	277	24	7	262	64	-64	+2	+22	+22	+45	2.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	130	20	5	9	45	153	3	8	2	218	277	314	592	96	276	24	7	262	64	-20	+1	+7	+7	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 583 PAwOBA .315 → .279 (−35)K% 18.0% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.01%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	21.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.26%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.70%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.71%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.993	×1.048	21.01%
Doubles /BIP	5.12%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.993	×1.048	4.42%
Triples /BIP	2.20%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.993	×1.048	2.22%
Home runs /BIP	2.93%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.15%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .315 → .279; ISO .146 → .124; BABIP .291 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 242 PAwOBA .269 → .248 (−21)K% 18.2% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.18%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.55%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×1.050	3.04%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.77%	÷0.951	×0.930	×1.004	×1.050	21.40%
Doubles /BIP	6.56%	÷0.969	×0.830	×1.004	×1.050	5.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.004	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.19%	÷0.956	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.68%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .269 → .248; ISO .106 → .088; BABIP .273 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 111 PAwOBA .308 → .282 (−26)K% 21.6% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.62%	÷0.984	×1.220	—	—	26.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.41%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×1.027	3.66%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.80%
Singles /BIP	31.65%	÷0.968	×0.920	×1.042	×1.027	32.19%
Doubles /BIP	3.80%	÷1.014	×0.840	×1.042	×1.027	3.37%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷1.137	×0.940	×1.042	×1.027	1.12%
Home runs /BIP	1.27%	÷0.957	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.09%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 127, K 97, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .308 → .282; ISO .078 → .066; BABIP .372 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 31 PAwOBA .411 → .314 (−97)K% 3.2% → 4.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	3.23%	÷0.993	×1.440	—	—	4.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.13%	÷0.997	×0.620	—	×0.965	9.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷0.996	×0.820	—	×0.965	17.28%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷1.102	×0.720	—	×0.965	5.48%
Triples /BIP	4.35%	÷1.060	×0.720	—	×0.965	2.85%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.187	×0.780	—	×0.965	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 112, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .411 → .314; ISO .167 → .124; BABIP .333 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 454 PAwOBA .301 → .255 (−47)K% 14.5% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.54%	÷0.990	×1.270	—	—	18.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.79%	÷1.037	×0.710	—	×1.012	7.48%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.70%
Singles /BIP	24.01%	÷1.004	×0.920	×0.990	×1.012	22.06%
Doubles /BIP	4.26%	÷0.950	×0.810	×0.990	×1.012	3.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.948	×0.850	×0.990	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷1.036	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.42%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 90, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .301 → .255; ISO .081 → .067; BABIP .284 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 136 PAwOBA .233 → .194 (−39)K% 20.6% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.59%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.41%	÷1.048	×0.700	—	×1.042	3.07%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.76%	÷1.042	×0.920	×0.987	×1.042	21.56%
Doubles /BIP	4.95%	÷1.003	×0.840	×0.987	×1.042	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.142	×0.940	×0.987	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.063	×0.800	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 128, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .233 → .194; ISO .039 → .032; BABIP .284 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 526 PAwOBA .289 → .239 (−50)K% 20.5% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.53%	÷0.977	×1.270	—	—	26.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.03%	÷0.966	×0.710	—	×1.027	8.32%
HBP% /PA	0.19%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	0.15%
Singles /BIP	19.77%	÷0.989	×0.920	×1.007	×1.027	19.03%
Doubles /BIP	5.65%	÷1.051	×0.810	×1.007	×1.027	4.50%
Triples /BIP	1.41%	÷0.994	×0.850	×1.007	×1.027	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	2.26%	÷1.134	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.64%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .289 → .239; ISO .117 → .088; BABIP .271 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 469 PAwOBA .296 → .238 (−57)K% 23.5% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.45%	÷0.991	×1.360	—	—	32.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.20%	÷1.026	×0.690	—	×1.030	11.22%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.03%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.988	×0.920	×0.966	×1.030	21.37%
Doubles /BIP	4.40%	÷0.916	×0.830	×0.966	×1.030	3.96%
Triples /BIP	1.47%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.966	×1.030	1.47%
Home runs /BIP	0.73%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.60%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .296 → .238; ISO .068 → .059; BABIP .287 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#2Darwin Barneylast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,729 PA	4.1	2,729	29	29	246	294	339	+10	+46	6.5	6.5
/162	664	7	7	+2.5	+11.2	1.6	pk7: 7
#3Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Benji Gil'93-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,767 PA	2.7	1,767	32	24	227*	272*	349*	+10	+30	0.6	1.0
/162	664	12	9	+3.8	+11.3	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.4	956	16	5	231	279	343	+10	+19	0.8	0.8
/162	664	11	3	+7.1	+13.3	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Todd Cruz'78-'84 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,634 PA	2.5	1,634	34	9	215*	250*	348*	+13	+35	0.5	0.5
/162	664	14	4	+5.4	+14.2	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Noah Miller (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	226/273/326	99	280	3	2	21%	6%	69	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2008 · AAA	24	45	40	44→45	47	216/278/304	88	268	8	7	22%	7%	66	-1.1	233/306/342	109	293	11	6	23%	8%	86	+0.3	238/312/336	99	295	9	4	21%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Yonathan Mendoza 2018 · AA	24	53	36→30	48→45	47	248/296/310	61	295	4	7	17%	6%	73	-0.6	225/278/279	54	280	3	6	19%	7%	59	-1.6	217/272/252	36	271	2	4	19%	7%	48	-1.5
✕Jose R. Flores 2012 · AA	24	48→49	39→40	48→45	46	230/280/315	85	275	7	8	19%	6%	69	-0.9	223/272/302	79	274	5	7	19%	6%	63	-1.4	228/272/295	67	277	2	5	18%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Louis Ott 2009 · AA	24	48	37→30	42→45	47	224/293/293	68	313	4	6	28%	8%	69	-0.9	229/303/303	74	328	5	8	29%	9%	75	-0.5	239/324/289	50	345	4	7	28%	11%	78	-0.1
✕Onix Vega 2023 · AAA	24	45	39→30	47→45	45	214/286/297	82	285	6	7	26%	7%	68	-1.0	202/274/271	69	262	5	6	23%	8%	57	-1.8	187/269/229	42	239	2	5	21%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Angel Franco 2014 · AA	24	51→50	40	45→50	44	246/283/338	92	287	7	9	17%	5%	74	-0.5	232/269/314	82	272	5	7	16%	5%	63	-1.3	230/266/315	85	268	4	1	15%	4%	60	-0.6
✕Jhon Nuñez 2019 · AA	24	48	38→40	46→50	42	228/277/306	78	295	5	10	24%	5%	65	-1.2	227/278/327	100	286	9	10	23%	5%	72	-0.7	238/279/337	100	287	11	10	21%	4%	69	-0.4
✕Fernando Flores 2015 · AAA	23	50	38→40	42→40	43	241/274/317	77	286	5	5	18%	4%	66	-1.1	253/286/342	89	302	7	4	18%	4%	76	-0.4	261/290/349	89	310	6	2	18%	3%	78	-0.2
✕Danny Gonzalez 2006 · AA	24	45	39→30	49→60	44	217/276/302	85	284	7	5	25%	6%	65	-1.2	212/268/283	71	275	5	8	24%	6%	57	-1.8	200/243/218	19	265	0	2	23%	4%	30	-1.0
✕Kenny Perez 2006 · AAA	24	52→55	40	47→45	46	252/295/345	93	295	8	9	17%	6%	81	-0.1	246/286/338	92	290	7	8	17%	5%	76	-0.4	261/301/366	104	303	6	4	15%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Rodrigo Aguirre 2008 · AAA	24	43	39→30	44→45	43	210/255/297	87	259	7	10	22%	5%	55	-1.9	254/302/362	108	287	9	6	14%	6%	88	+0.4	269/316/347	78	301	3	2	11%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Jonathan Esqueda 2009 · AAA	24	46	40→30	41→45	45	221/281/309	88	281	8	7	24%	7%	68	-1.0	228/282/333	105	293	9	11	24%	6%	74	-0.5	243/287/324	82	312	5	11	23%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Adam Ricks 2008 · AAA	25	45	37→30	42→30	49	214/277/287	73	267	5	4	21%	8%	61	-1.5	207/274/287	80	265	5	6	22%	8%	61	-1.5	201/286/267	67	261	4	5	22%	10%	59	-0.4
✕Elih Marrero 2021 · A	24	44	39→40	49→55	44	210/265/295	85	273	6	7	25%	7%	59	-1.7	215/286/290	75	307	4	21	28%	9%	66	-1.1	210/266/317	107	293	8	22	29%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Tyler Heineman 2015 · AA	24	47→46	42→45	43→50	47	225/291/337	112	257	8	5	16%	6%	79	-0.2	231/287/318	87	270	6	5	16%	6%	72	-0.7	236/297/343	108	277	10	5	18%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Chace Numata 2018 · AA	25	51	38→40	46→40	48	242/291/322	80	281	4	3	15%	6%	74	-0.5	211/255/295	84	258	5	4	19%	5%	55	-2.0	190/229/266	76	235	4	1	20%	4%	37	-1.3
✕Victor Cruzado 2016 · AA	24	47→48	40	46→45	48	222/287/323	101	291	6	5	25%	8%	74	-0.6	222/287/314	92	298	8	6	26%	8%	72	-0.7	221/288/304	83	294	8	6	26%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Sandy León 2013 · MLB	24	50→56	40→45	42→30	46	239/294/336	97	303	7	4	23%	7%	79	-0.2	203/267/288	85	254	7	3	22%	8%	59	-1.7	235/294/341	106	298	11	0	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Frank Martinez 2009 · AA	24	48→52	42→45	47→45	44	235/279/341	106	282	9	7	20%	5%	74	-0.5	227/273/322	95	281	7	7	21%	6%	68	-1.0	220/267/309	89	274	6	6	21%	6%	59	-1.3
✕Elio Sarmiento 2010 · AA	24	50	39→45	46→45	44	235/290/322	87	300	5	6	23%	6%	74	-0.6	220/269/320	100	285	7	6	24%	5%	65	-1.2	210/254/316	106	271	7	4	24%	5%	57	-0.6

Noah Miller

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps