Victor Cruzado
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA/A+2 orgs | 392 | .268/.361/.395 | 3 | 2 | 68 | — | .215/.286/.314 |
| 2016 | 24 | AABinghamton Me… | 420 | .261/.355/.374 | 8 | 6 | 73 | — | .232/.302/.319 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAALas Vegas 51s | 340 | .262/.347/.385 | 7 | 3 | 58 | — | .205/.271/.279 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | — | 187 | 152 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 250 | 370 | 349 | 719 | 99 | 316 | 21 | 15 | 323 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | — | 127 | 104 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 279 | 405 | 423 | 828 | 144 | 337 | 17 | 17 | 371 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | — | 164 | 137 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 328 | 429 | 467 | 896 | 139 | 378 | 16 | 13 | 395 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 421 | 359 | 98 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 58 | 78 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 273 | 374 | 404 | 778 | 131 | 327 | 19 | 14 | 349 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 18 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 333 | 267 | 600 | 67 | 231 | 11 | 17 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 374 | 324 | 88 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 67 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 272 | 362 | 401 | 763 | 130 | 331 | 18 | 12 | 341 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 420 | 364 | 95 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 51 | 83 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 261 | 355 | 374 | 729 | 113 | 316 | 20 | 12 | 330 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 340 | 301 | 79 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 262 | 347 | 385 | 732 | 123 | 329 | 22 | 11 | 332 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 187 | 161 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 47 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 155 | 249 | 205 | 454 | 50 | 196 | 25 | 10 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 127 | 112 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 170 | 262 | 241 | 503 | 71 | 205 | 20 | 11 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 164 | 145 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 248 | 323 | 345 | 668 | 97 | 301 | 23 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 421 | 381 | 86 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 103 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 226 | 293 | 333 | 626 | 108 | 285 | 24 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 18 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 278 | 250 | 528 | 62 | 215 | 17 | 11 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 374 | 337 | 73 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 32 | 96 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 217 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 101 | 291 | 26 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 420 | 379 | 88 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 95 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 232 | 302 | 319 | 621 | 87 | 289 | 23 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 340 | 312 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 102 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 205 | 271 | 279 | 549 | 74 | 298 | 30 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 187 | 161 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 47 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 155 | 249 | 205 | 454 | 50 | 210 | 25 | 10 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 2 | — | 187 | 152 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 250 | 370 | 349 | 719 | 99 | 316 | 21 | 15 | 323 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 127 | 112 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 170 | 262 | 241 | 503 | 71 | 218 | 20 | 11 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 1 | — | 127 | 104 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 279 | 405 | 423 | 828 | 144 | 337 | 17 | 17 | 371 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 164 | 145 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 248 | 323 | 345 | 668 | 97 | 312 | 23 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK RAW | Kingsport Mets | — | 164 | 137 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 328 | 429 | 467 | 896 | 139 | 378 | 16 | 13 | 395 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 421 | 381 | 86 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 103 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 226 | 293 | 333 | 626 | 108 | 290 | 24 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A RAW | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 421 | 359 | 98 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 58 | 78 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 273 | 374 | 404 | 778 | 131 | 327 | 19 | 14 | 349 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 353 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 34 | 98 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 215 | 286 | 314 | 601 | 99 | 289 | 25 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 392 | 339 | 91 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 48 | 69 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 268 | 361 | 395 | 756 | 127 | 326 | 18 | 12 | 338 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 420 | 379 | 88 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 95 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 232 | 302 | 319 | 621 | 87 | 293 | 23 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA RAW | Binghamton Mets | — | 420 | 364 | 95 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 51 | 83 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 261 | 355 | 374 | 729 | 113 | 316 | 20 | 12 | 330 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 340 | 312 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 102 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 205 | 271 | 279 | 549 | 74 | 291 | 30 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas 51s | — | 340 | 301 | 79 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 262 | 347 | 385 | 732 | 123 | 329 | 22 | 11 | 332 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 187 | 165 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 47 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 152 | 249 | 200 | 449 | 48 | 196 | 25 | 10 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 127 | 112 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 170 | 262 | 241 | 503 | 71 | 205 | 20 | 11 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 164 | 147 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 245 | 323 | 340 | 663 | 95 | 301 | 23 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 421 | 382 | 86 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 103 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 225 | 293 | 332 | 625 | 107 | 285 | 24 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 354 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 34 | 98 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 215 | 286 | 314 | 600 | 99 | 288 | 25 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 420 | 379 | 88 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 95 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 232 | 302 | 319 | 621 | 87 | 289 | 23 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 340 | 309 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 102 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 207 | 271 | 282 | 552 | 74 | 298 | 30 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2051 | 1843 | 394 | 64 | 19 | 20 | 180 | 508 | 7 | 35 | 30 | 214 | 286 | 302 | 588 | 88 | 281 | 25 | 9 | 265 | 65 | -85 | -5 | +0 | -22 | +44 | -6.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 124 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 161 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 212 | 285 | 298 | 583 | 86 | 279 | 25 | 9 | 265 | 65 | -27 | -2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAALas Vegas 51s · 340 PAwOBA .324 → .254 (−70)K% 22.1% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.06% | ÷0.948 | ×1.290 | — | — | 30.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.47% | ÷1.015 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.66% | ÷0.994 | ×0.900 | ×1.001 | ×1.033 | 24.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷0.998 | ×0.810 | ×1.001 | ×1.033 | 4.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.111 | ×0.810 | ×1.001 | ×1.033 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.10% | ÷1.209 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 2.06% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 122, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .324 → .254; ISO .123 → .084; BABIP .329 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AABinghamton Mets · 420 PAwOBA .323 → .276 (−47)K% 19.8% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.76% | ÷1.062 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.62% | ÷1.034 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 24.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.63% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.956 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.85% | ÷1.085 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 107, 2B 114, 3B 91, K 112, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .323 → .276; ISO .113 → .090; BABIP .316 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+St. Lucie Mets · 374 PAwOBA .334 → .270 (−64)K% 17.9% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.91% | ÷0.992 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.023 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.96% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.39% | ÷1.055 | ×0.960 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 6.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.72% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 2.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.17% | ÷1.269 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.81% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 110, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .334 → .270; ISO .130 → .106; BABIP .331 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AABinghamton Mets · 18 PAwOBA .282 → .241 (−41)K% 11.1% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 12.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.030 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 14.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.034 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.088 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 95, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .282 → .241; ISO .067 → .058; BABIP .231 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ASavannah Sand Gnats · 421 PAwOBA .343 → .277 (−66)K% 18.5% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.53% | ÷1.018 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.54% | ÷1.053 | ×0.660 | — | — | 8.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.27% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | — | 22.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | ×0.969 | — | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷0.908 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | — | 2.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.49% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | — | — | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 82, K 104, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .343 → .277; ISO .131 → .114; BABIP .327 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ROKKingsport Mets · 164 PAwOBA .391 → .298 (−93)K% 15.9% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.985 | 7.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.985 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.994 | ×0.985 | 24.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.994 | ×0.985 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.994 | ×0.985 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.985 | 2.13% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .391 → .298; ISO .139 → .106; BABIP .378 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 DSLDSL Mets 1 · 127 PAwOBA .363 → .234 (−129)K% 16.5% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.54% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 11.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 14.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 4.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.56% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .363 → .234; ISO .144 → .082; BABIP .337 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 DSLDSL Mets 2 · 187 PAwOBA .324 → .213 (−110)K% 20.9% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 10.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 14.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.41% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .324 → .213; ISO .099 → .057; BABIP .316 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).