Player 827653 — OGILVIE

Player 827653 P DSL Brewers Gold

Age — —HP ROK peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINST105

ERA4.20

FIP4.20

K%22.7%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	—	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	12	12	34	142	33	6	1	100%	2.9	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	1.0%	2.36	2.98	—
YTD	—	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	12	12	34	142	33	6	1	100%	2.9	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	1.0%	2.36	2.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	—	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	12	12	34	142	33	6	1	100%	2.9	23.2%	4.2%	19.0%	0.7%	2.36	2.06	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	—	6	6	34	144	33	11	4	100%	5.7	23.2%	7.9%	15.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.15	+0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	7.9%	15.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.15	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	MLE		12	12	34	142	22	8	1	100%	2.9	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	1.0%	2.36	2.98	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	70	200	827	131	44	8	100%	2.9	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	1.0%	2.36	2.98	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Player 827653 (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	22.7%	7.9%	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	88
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	73
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	72
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	71
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	70
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	69
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	69
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	69
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	68
Zak Kent R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	25	SP	3.88	20.2%	6.4%	3.0%	.239	3.93	20.8%	10.3%	145	+0.05	3.19	378	68
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	68
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	68
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	67
James Kaprielian R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	25	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.271	4.50	20.5%	11.3%	253	+0.33	2.80	446	67
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	66
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	66
Tristan Beck R 2021 · 5.00 FIP	25	SP	5.00	18.2%	10.9%	3.7%	.375	4.23	20.1%	13.1%	252	-0.77	3.48	495	65
Spencer Howard R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	24.5%	11.3%	2.4%	.311	4.85	23.7%	14.8%	208	+1.09	2.33	484	65
Braxton Ashcraft R 2023 · 3.23 FIP	23	SP	3.23	21.7%	6.0%	2.2%	.317	3.38	23.9%	18.1%	356	+0.15	3.15	459	65
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.0%	7.9%	1.15	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97