Zak Kent — OGILVIE

Zak Kent P Rochester Red Wings

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.09

FIP4.15

K%21.1%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p1015.6%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

SI (2%)

CU (18%)

FB-1.1 (43%)

SL-2.5 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	89	367	117	23	14	75%	4.5	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	4.6%	3.64	4.40	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	89	367	117	23	14	75%	4.5	31.9%	6.3%	25.6%	3.8%	3.64	3.29	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	110	462	110	43	13	100%	4.6	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	3.6%	3.94	4.71	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	110	462	110	43	13	100%	4.6	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	2.8%	3.94	3.81	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	41	171	43	13	7	100%	3.1	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.87	3.88	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	41	171	43	13	7	100%	3.1	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.87	3.88	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	41	171	43	13	7	100%	3.1	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	4.1%	4.87	4.18	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	26	122	31	18	2	27%	1.7	20.8%	14.0%	6.8%	1.8%	6.66	4.10	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	26	122	31	18	2	27%	1.7	20.8%	14.0%	6.8%	1.8%	6.66	4.10	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	4	26	122	31	18	2	27%	1.7	25.4%	14.8%	10.7%	1.6%	6.66	3.80	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	235	66	29	3	0%	1.2	24.5%	11.4%	13.0%	1.3%	3.40	3.19	+0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	235	66	29	3	0%	1.2	24.5%	11.4%	13.0%	1.3%	3.40	3.19	+0.9
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	56	235	66	29	3	0%	1.2	28.1%	12.3%	15.7%	1.3%	3.40	2.99	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	0	34	153	28	16	4	0%	1.5	18.3%	10.5%	7.8%	2.6%	5.03	4.39	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	49	4	66	292	60	27	9	8%	1.3	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.3%	4.91	4.49	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	49	4	66	292	60	27	9	8%	1.3	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.3%	4.91	4.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	WSH	38	4	50	215	48	19	6	11%	1.3	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	2.8%	4.71	3.87	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	WSH	11	0	16	77	12	8	3	0%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	3.9%	5.51	5.24	-0.1
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	WSH	11	0	16	77	12	8	3	0%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	3.9%	5.51	5.24	-0.1
ROS	28	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	22	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	2.4%	4.09	4.15	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	2.4%	4.09	4.15	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	71	314	65	30	10	—	—	20.6%	9.4%	11.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.47	+0.1
FULL	28	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	21	91	65	30	10	—	—	71.2%	32.6%	38.6%	10.5%	16.06	6.98	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	WSH	60	0	63	267	55	32	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.71	4.80	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	59	251	50	31	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.2%	7.8%	3.0%	4.85	4.97	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	WSH	57	0	60	253	52	31	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.71	4.80	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	53	0	56	236	47	29	7	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.2%	7.8%	3.0%	4.85	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	0	156	666	132	78	19	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.8%	8.1%	2.8%	4.81	4.45	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	0	200	857	170	100	24	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.8%	8.1%	2.8%	4.81	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		168	60	388	1653	353	153	54	36%	2.3	21.4%	9.2%	12.1%	3.2%	4.23	4.24	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	31	200	853	182	79	28	36%	2.3	21.4%	9.2%	12.1%	3.2%	4.23	4.24	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zak Kent (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.2%	12.6%	2.4%	—	4.88	20.3%	8.1%	123	+0.38	—	—	—
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	75
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	74
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	73
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	72
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	71
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	71
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	70
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	70
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	70
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	70
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	70
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	70
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	69
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	69
Yennier Cano R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	23.2%	11.8%	3.3%	.325	3.19	23.4%	16.2%	191	-1.27	2.43	377	69
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	68
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	68
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	68
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	21.0%	12.3%	1.05	4.67
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64