Cade Crossland — OGILVIE

Cade Crossland P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%24.0%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	25	24	97	417	138	69	6	96%	3.9	24.7%	19.4%	5.3%	1.9%	4.35	4.50	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	25	24	97	417	138	69	6	96%	3.9	24.7%	19.4%	5.3%	1.9%	4.35	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	STL	20	19	72	318	109	57	6	95%	3.6	34.3%	17.9%	16.4%	1.9%	5.38	3.51	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	STL	5	5	25	99	29	12	0	100%	5.1	29.3%	12.1%	17.2%	0.0%	1.42	2.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	99	418	102	59	12	100%	5.5	24.5%	14.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.78	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	101	428	107	54	12	100%	5.6	24.9%	12.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.55	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	103	434	109	51	12	100%	5.7	25.1%	11.7%	13.5%	2.9%	4.51	4.41	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	103	434	109	50	12	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.5%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	101	427	108	49	12	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.42	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	98	415	104	49	13	100%	6.1	25.1%	11.7%	13.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.51	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	94	396	98	47	13	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.0%	12.9%	3.2%	4.57	4.64	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	88	372	91	46	13	100%	5.9	24.5%	12.3%	12.3%	3.4%	4.72	4.81	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	347	84	44	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.6%	11.5%	3.6%	4.90	5.02	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	49	207	51	29	6	100%	5.4	24.5%	14.1%	10.5%	2.7%	4.78	4.67	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	71	300	75	38	8	100%	5.5	24.9%	12.6%	12.3%	2.7%	4.56	4.44	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	88	41	9	100%	5.9	25.1%	11.7%	13.5%	2.7%	4.40	4.30	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	96	44	10	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.5%	13.7%	2.7%	4.32	4.27	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	91	384	97	44	10	100%	6.1	25.2%	11.6%	13.7%	2.7%	4.32	4.31	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	95	45	11	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.36	4.39	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	87	367	91	44	11	100%	6.2	24.9%	12.0%	12.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.52	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	86	43	11	100%	5.9	24.5%	12.3%	12.3%	3.1%	4.59	4.68	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	78	329	79	42	11	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.6%	11.5%	3.3%	4.76	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	123	722	3049	759	369	87	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.10	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	210	102	24	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		25	24	97	417	103	81	8	96%	3.9	24.7%	19.4%	5.3%	1.9%	4.35	4.50	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	49	200	857	212	167	16	96%	3.9	24.7%	19.4%	5.3%	1.9%	4.35	4.50	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Crossland (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	24.0%	16.3%	2.9%	—	4.58	24.9%	12.1%	303	-0.56	—	—	—
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	80
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	78
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	78
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	77
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	77
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	75
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	75
Pablo Aldonis L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	21	SP	4.44	18.7%	15.6%	1.7%	.240	3.01	21.7%	12.9%	75	-1.43	1.89	135	74
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	74
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	74
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	73
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	73
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	72
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	72
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	72
Eric Dominguez L 2023 · 4.28 FIP	20	SP-	4.28	24.3%	16.1%	2.2%	.371	4.07	20.4%	7.5%	85	-0.21	3.81	140	71
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	71
Joe Miller L 2022 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	17.4%	13.9%	2.0%	.375	4.22	16.0%	7.7%	273	-0.26	3.76	355	70
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	70
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	89	24.9%	12.3%	1.18	4.63
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39