Cade Crossland

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#712ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	25	24	97	4.35	3.19	33.1%	16.5%	—	K 24.7% · BB 19.4% · FIP 4.50
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	—	—	0	5.33	5.33	24.3%	19.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	6	6	31	4.95	4.84	24.7%	16.2%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSTL	8	8	44	4.71	4.58	24.8%	14.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 4.5, comp-based) · star 7% · didn't stick 76%

CompsCaden Grice (age 22) · Doug Nikhazy (age 23) · Jeremy Wu-Yelland (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%24.3%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%5.3%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	97	417	138	69	6	96%	3.9	24.7%	19.4%	5.3%	1.9%	4.35	4.50	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	97	417	138	69	6	96%	3.9	24.7%	19.4%	5.3%	1.9%	4.35	4.50	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	97	417	138	69	6	96%	3.9	33.1%	16.5%	16.5%	1.4%	4.35	3.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.3%	19.1%	5.3%	2.7%	5.33	5.33	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	72	302	75	49	8	100%	5.5	24.7%	16.2%	8.5%	2.7%	5.05	4.94	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	67	281	70	40	8	100%	6.1	24.8%	14.3%	10.6%	2.7%	4.81	4.68	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	65	274	68	38	8	100%	5.9	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	2.7%	4.70	4.64	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	63	265	66	37	7	100%	6.3	24.8%	13.8%	11.0%	2.8%	4.68	4.67	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	60	252	62	35	7	100%	6.0	24.7%	14.0%	10.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.75	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	55	233	57	33	7	100%	6.1	24.4%	14.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.82	4.89	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	54	230	60	32	7	100%	6.1	26.1%	13.7%	12.4%	3.2%	4.80	4.79	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	48	204	52	29	7	100%	6.0	25.7%	14.0%	11.7%	3.5%	4.92	4.99	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	31	131	32	21	3	100%	5.2	24.7%	16.2%	8.5%	2.5%	4.95	4.84	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	44	186	46	27	5	100%	5.5	24.8%	14.3%	10.6%	2.5%	4.71	4.58	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	51	215	54	30	5	100%	6.4	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	2.5%	4.59	4.53	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	54	228	57	32	6	100%	6.0	24.8%	13.8%	11.0%	2.6%	4.57	4.56	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	55	31	6	100%	5.9	24.7%	14.0%	10.7%	2.7%	4.61	4.64	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	50	211	52	30	6	100%	6.2	24.4%	14.2%	10.2%	2.8%	4.70	4.77	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	50	211	55	29	6	100%	6.2	26.1%	13.7%	12.4%	3.0%	4.68	4.67	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	45	190	49	27	6	100%	5.6	25.7%	14.0%	11.7%	3.2%	4.79	4.86	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	378	1596	399	226	44	100%	5.9	25.0%	14.2%	10.9%	2.8%	4.68	4.29	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	120	23	100%	5.9	25.0%	14.2%	10.9%	2.8%	4.68	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		25	24	97	417	103	81	8	96%	3.9	24.7%	19.4%	5.3%	1.9%	4.35	4.50	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	49	200	857	212	167	16	96%	3.9	24.7%	19.4%	5.3%	1.9%	4.35	4.50	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 72 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.98 (+1.47)K% 34.3% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.28%	—	×0.740	25.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.92%	—	×1.180	21.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 25 IPFIP 2.16 → 2.96 (+0.80)K% 29.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.29%	—	×0.770	22.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.150	13.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.16 → 2.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Crossland (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.76	24.8%	10.0%	203	-0.57	—	—	—
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	87
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	81
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	79
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	78
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	78
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	78
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	77
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	76
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	75
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	74
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	73
Dalton Rogers L 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	17.7%	14.9%	1.2%	.324	4.76	20.4%	4.7%	185	+0.59	3.47	364	73
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	73
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	71
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	70
Nick Swiney L 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	21.2%	13.6%	2.1%	.250	4.84	17.4%	5.4%	177	+0.69	2.29	290	70
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	70
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	61	24.9%	14.9%	1.12	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*