Nick Swiney — OGILVIE

Nick Swiney P Asheville Tourists

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 59 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%16.0%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%1.7%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	32	138	58	18	0	100%	2.7	30.5%	13.9%	16.6%	0.0%	0.84	2.29	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	32	138	58	18	0	100%	2.7	42.0%	13.0%	29.0%	0.0%	0.84	1.18	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	21	20	89	381	105	45	7	95%	4.2	21.2%	13.6%	7.6%	2.1%	3.84	4.15	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	21	20	89	381	105	45	7	95%	4.2	27.6%	11.8%	15.7%	1.8%	3.84	3.28	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	56	246	48	30	6	0%	1.7	16.4%	11.5%	4.9%	2.7%	4.37	4.63	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	56	246	48	30	6	0%	1.7	19.5%	12.2%	7.3%	2.4%	4.37	4.39	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	41	2	72	325	79	33	11	5%	1.8	19.7%	11.2%	8.5%	3.8%	5.25	4.95	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	41	2	72	325	79	33	11	5%	1.8	19.7%	11.2%	8.5%	3.8%	5.25	4.95	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	41	2	72	325	79	33	11	5%	1.8	24.3%	10.2%	14.2%	3.4%	5.25	4.27	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	24	2	49	229	45	27	6	8%	2.0	15.1%	13.6%	1.6%	2.5%	5.51	4.93	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	24	2	49	229	45	27	6	8%	2.0	15.1%	13.6%	1.6%	2.5%	5.51	4.93	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	24	2	49	229	45	27	6	8%	2.0	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	2.6%	5.51	4.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	HOU	56	0	59	249	40	36	7	0%	1.1	16.0%	14.3%	1.7%	3.0%	5.59	5.59	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	54	0	56	237	39	33	7	0%	1.0	16.5%	14.0%	2.5%	3.2%	5.54	5.59	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	50	0	53	223	37	31	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	13.9%	2.7%	3.3%	5.59	5.68	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	16	0	17	72	12	10	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	14.0%	2.5%	3.2%	5.54	5.59	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	26	0	27	114	19	16	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	13.9%	2.7%	3.3%	5.59	5.68	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	0	44	185	31	26	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	14.0%	2.6%	3.3%	5.57	5.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	119	27	0%	1.1	16.6%	14.0%	2.6%	3.3%	5.57	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		130	36	298	1319	262	167	33	28%	2.3	19.9%	12.6%	7.2%	2.5%	4.23	4.38	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	24	200	885	176	112	22	28%	2.3	19.9%	12.6%	7.2%	2.5%	4.23	4.38	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Swiney (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	16.0%	14.3%	3.0%	—	5.63	16.6%	2.6%	109	+0.04	—	—	—
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	77
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	75
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	73
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	73
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	72
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	72
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	72
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	71
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	70
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	70
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	70
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	69
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	69
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	69
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	69
Matt Stalcup L 2016 · 6.20 FIP	26	SW	6.20	11.5%	12.7%	4.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	145	69
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	68
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	68
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	67
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	16.4%	14.1%	1.22	5.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37