Nick Swiney
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125134vR 144
ERA5.55
FIP5.55
K%15.7%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%1.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 32 | 138 | 58 | 18 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 30.5% | 13.9% | 16.6% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 2.29 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 32 | 138 | 58 | 18 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 42.0% | 13.0% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 1.18 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 21 | 20 | 89 | 381 | 105 | 45 | 7 | 95% | 4.2 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 3.84 | 4.05 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 21 | 20 | 89 | 381 | 105 | 45 | 7 | 95% | 4.2 | 27.6% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 1.8% | 3.84 | 3.28 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 56 | 246 | 48 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.77 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 56 | 246 | 48 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 4.39 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 41 | 2 | 72 | 325 | 79 | 33 | 11 | 5% | 1.8 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 4.84 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 41 | 2 | 72 | 325 | 79 | 33 | 11 | 5% | 1.8 | 24.3% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 5.25 | 4.27 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 24 | 2 | 49 | 229 | 45 | 27 | 6 | 8% | 2.0 | 15.1% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 5.51 | 4.67 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 24 | 2 | 49 | 229 | 45 | 27 | 6 | 8% | 2.0 | 19.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 5.51 | 4.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 40 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 5.55 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.48 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.49 | 5.55 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.48 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.49 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 36 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.49 | 5.16 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 140 | 117 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.49 | 5.16 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 130 | 36 | 298 | 1319 | 263 | 170 | 30 | 28% | 2.3 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 4.23 | 4.30 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 24 | 200 | 885 | 176 | 114 | 20 | 28% | 2.3 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 4.23 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Swiney (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.55 | 15.7% | 14.1% | 2.9% | — | 5.53 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 113 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.96 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .330 | 3.92 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -1.04 | 3.80 | 412 | 80 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2028 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 77 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 76 |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 76 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 76 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 6.48 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.19 | 3.40 | 144 | 75 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 75 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.20 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 75 |
| Randy Labaut L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 16.3% | 15.0% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.60 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 37 | +0.63 | 1.91 | 302 | 75 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 74 |
| Brian Holmes L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 74 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 74 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.99 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 256 | 74 |
| Sean Keselica L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 235 | 73 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 73 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 73 |
| Ryne Slack L 2025 · 5.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.43 | 13.9% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 212 | 73 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 72 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.41 | 18.9% | 16.3% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 316 | 72 |
| Joey DeNato L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 12.3% | 15.1% | 1.4% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 167 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 16.2% | 13.8% | 1.18 | 5.51 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |