Luke Gabrysh — OGILVIE

Luke Gabrysh P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

+0.1 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2029

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.2%

IP78

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2029

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	19	78	318	59	32	6	13.8%	11.8%	2.3%	3.33	4.66	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	3	3	11	42	16	1	1	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	PHI	14	14	78	331	67	33	9	20.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	+0.4
2026 Total	23	MLB	PHI	—	—	89	373	83	34	10	22.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.35	4.05	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	PHI	15	15	80	339	72	32	10	21.2%	9.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.46	+0.6
2028	25	MLB	PHI	17	17	93	394	85	36	11	21.6%	9.1%	2.8%	4.41	4.36	+0.9
2029	26	MLB	PHI	18	18	100	423	92	38	12	21.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.36	4.33	+1.1
2030	27	MLB	PHI	19	19	104	437	96	39	13	21.9%	8.9%	2.9%	4.35	4.34	+1.1
2031	28	MLB	PHI	19	19	104	439	96	39	13	21.8%	9.0%	2.9%	4.36	4.37	+1.1
2032	29	MLB	PHI	18	18	102	429	93	39	13	21.7%	9.1%	2.9%	4.39	4.41	+1.0
2033	30	MLB	PHI	18	18	99	416	90	38	13	21.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.47	+0.9
2034	31	MLB	PHI	17	17	95	402	85	37	12	21.3%	9.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.55	+0.8
2035	32	MLB	PHI	17	17	91	385	81	36	12	21.0%	9.4%	3.2%	4.59	4.64	+0.6
2036	33	MLB	PHI	16	16	87	368	76	35	12	20.7%	9.6%	3.2%	4.68	4.73	+0.5
2037	34	MLB	PHI	15	15	83	350	71	34	12	20.3%	9.8%	3.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.3
2038	35	MLB	PHI	14	14	78	329	72	30	11	21.9%	9.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.69	+0.4
2039	36	MLB	PHI	13	13	73	308	66	29	11	21.5%	9.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.83	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			24	22	89	360	60	39	8	16.7%	10.7%	2.3%	3.22	4.29	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—			54	49	200	806	134	87	18	16.7%	10.7%	2.3%	3.22	4.29	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Gabrysh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.2%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.38	21.6%	12.4%	274	-0.24	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.94	18.5%	7.4%	135	-0.43	3.84	213	96
Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	17.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-1.97	2.66	145	95
Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	23	SW	4.32	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.21	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.71	301	93
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	93
Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	23	SW	4.44	17.7%	11.0%	2.6%	.310	3.81	21.6%	10.6%	110	-0.63	2.36	229	92
Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.36	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.07	4.29	222	91
Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	91
Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.49	24.9%	14.5%	98	-0.93	2.46	228	91
Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	90
David Trexler R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	17.7%	13.4%	2.3%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.14	4.44	100	90
David Griffin R 2028 · 4.42 FIP	25	SW	4.42	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.32	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.90	4.42	239	90
Mike Ruff R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	23	SW	3.97	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.72	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.75	3.97	260	90
Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	24	SW	4.16	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	4.19	16.8%	7.5%	66	+0.03	4.16	135	90
Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	90
Matt Lollis R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	5.00	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.44	4.56	120	90
Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	89
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	89
Tai Tiedemann R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	23	SW	3.84	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.79	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.95	3.84	190	89
Kieran Lovegrove R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	23	SW	5.00	17.9%	12.6%	3.3%	.273	4.48	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.52	3.80	215	89
Ralston Cash R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	23	SW	4.86	19.4%	11.8%	3.5%	.240	3.89	23.0%	11.0%	185	-0.97	3.02	242	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$7M		$41M	+$35M