Luke Gabrysh
P
Jersey Shore BlueClaws
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 127
ERA5.61
FIP5.61
K%12.8%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%-0.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 78 | 318 | 59 | 32 | 6 | 90% | 3.7 | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.33 | 4.59 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 78 | 318 | 59 | 32 | 6 | 90% | 3.7 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 1.9% | 3.33 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 16 | 15 | 59 | 269 | 76 | 32 | 10 | 94% | 3.7 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 5.01 | 5.55 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 33 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 12.8% | 13.1% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 5.61 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.8% | 13.1% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 5.61 | 5.61 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 121 | 529 | 109 | 66 | 17 | — | — | 20.7% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 5.31 | 5.58 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.8% | 13.1% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 5.61 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.2% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.36 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 45 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 47 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.3% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 46 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 45 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.3% | 11.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.09 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.2% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.36 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 37 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.3% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 40 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 40 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 11.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.09 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 228 | 965 | 164 | 112 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.0% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 4.71 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 144 | 98 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.0% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 34 | 138 | 587 | 102 | 74 | 19 | 92% | 3.7 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.05 | 5.03 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 49 | 200 | 853 | 149 | 108 | 28 | 92% | 3.7 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.05 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Gabrysh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.61 | 12.8% | 13.1% | 2.8% | — | 5.13 | 16.4% | 4.7% | 191 | -0.48 | — | — | — |
| Ben Hansen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 86 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 85 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.75 | 15.8% | 14.3% | 2.1% | .270 | 3.74 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 54 | -1.01 | 3.41 | 253 | 85 |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 84 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 84 |
| Reid Schaller R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 84 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 82 |
| Cole Wiper R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.38 | 14.6% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .343 | 4.33 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 136 | -1.05 | 3.85 | 170 | 81 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 81 |
| Troy Miller R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 12.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .299 | 5.35 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 45 | +0.39 | 4.96 | 168 | 81 |
| Casey Steward R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 80 |
| Yoan López R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.60 | 10.4% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .282 | 3.58 | 25.5% | 17.4% | 153 | -2.02 | 2.16 | 377 | 80 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 80 |
| Victor Mederos R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.56 | 13.4% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .322 | 4.32 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 163 | -1.24 | 4.19 | 360 | 80 |
| Adam Maier R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.75 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 4.2% | .280 | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 60 | -1.04 | 3.63 | 239 | 79 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 78 |
| Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 78 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 78 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.43 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .285 | 7.34 | 19.6% | 3.2% | 26 | +2.91 | 4.43 | 225 | 78 |
| Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .239 | 6.40 | 18.4% | -1.6% | 31 | +1.70 | 4.70 | 140 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 16.1% | 11.8% | 1.11 | 5.22 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |