Luke Gabrysh

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#785ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	21	19	78	3.33	3.81	18.6%	10.1%	—	K 13.8% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.67
2026	23	MIX2 levels	24	23	93	5.30	3.95	29.4%	10.2%	—	K 22.8% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.12
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	—	—	0	5.17	5.17	21.9%	13.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYM	7	7	39	5.00	4.94	22.7%	12.3%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYM	10	10	60	4.89	4.85	23.1%	11.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 83%

CompsWill Sanders (age 22) · Connor Staine (age 23) · Josh Bostick (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%21.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	78	318	59	32	6	90%	3.7	13.8%	11.8%	2.0%	2.3%	3.33	4.67	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	78	318	59	32	6	90%	3.7	13.8%	11.8%	2.0%	2.3%	3.33	4.67	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	78	318	59	32	6	90%	3.7	18.6%	10.1%	8.5%	1.9%	3.33	3.81	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	93	412	121	42	15	96%	3.9	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	4.5%	5.30	5.12	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	93	412	121	42	15	96%	3.9	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	4.5%	5.30	5.12	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	93	412	121	42	15	96%	3.9	29.4%	10.2%	19.2%	3.6%	5.30	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	13.3%	8.6%	3.4%	5.17	5.17	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	90	380	86	47	13	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.3%	10.4%	3.3%	5.00	4.94	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	90	380	88	45	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.9%	11.2%	3.3%	4.89	4.85	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	86	362	83	43	12	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.86	4.85	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	81	342	78	40	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.89	4.92	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	75	317	72	38	11	100%	5.8	22.6%	12.0%	10.6%	3.6%	4.99	5.06	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	68	287	64	35	11	100%	6.2	22.3%	12.3%	10.0%	3.8%	5.14	5.23	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	39	165	37	20	5	100%	5.6	22.7%	12.3%	10.4%	3.3%	5.00	4.94	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	60	253	58	30	8	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.9%	11.2%	3.3%	4.89	4.85	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	66	279	64	33	9	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.86	4.85	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	68	287	66	34	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.89	4.92	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	66	279	63	33	10	100%	6.0	22.6%	12.0%	10.6%	3.6%	4.99	5.06	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	61	258	57	32	10	100%	6.1	22.3%	12.3%	10.0%	3.8%	5.13	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	360	1520	346	182	53	100%	6.0	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	3.5%	4.95	4.59	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	101	29	100%	6.0	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	3.5%	4.95	4.59	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		45	42	172	730	138	86	26	93%	3.8	18.9%	11.7%	7.2%	3.5%	4.40	4.93	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	49	200	850	161	100	30	93%	3.8	18.9%	11.7%	7.2%	3.5%	4.40	4.93	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 76 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.88 (+1.25)K% 30.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.770	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.65%	—	×1.150	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.25%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 17 IPFIP 5.15 → 6.22 (+1.06)K% 23.0% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.97%	—	×0.810	18.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.100	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	5.41%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.49%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.15 → 6.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 61 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.71 (+0.89)K% 19.9% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.92%	—	×0.740	14.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.16%	—	×1.180	11.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.083	×1.300	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 17 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.52 (+0.60)K% 13.9% → 10.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.89%	—	×0.770	10.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×1.150	11.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.045	×1.250	1.66%

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Gabrysh (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.88	22.9%	11.0%	266	-0.29	—	—	—
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	87
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	86
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	83
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	83
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	83
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	82
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	82
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	81
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	81
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	80
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	80
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	80
Chih-Jung Liu R 2023 · 5.16 FIP	24	SP	5.16	23.0%	13.2%	4.3%	.344	5.61	31.7%	18.3%	18	+0.45	4.41	283	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	83	22.6%	12.2%	1.33	4.99
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52