Luke Gabrysh — OGILVIE

Luke Gabrysh P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 124

ERA5.66

FIP5.66

K%12.8%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%-0.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	78	318	59	32	6	90%	3.7	13.8%	11.8%	2.0%	2.3%	3.33	4.67	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	78	318	59	32	6	90%	3.7	13.8%	11.8%	2.0%	2.3%	3.33	4.67	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	78	318	59	32	6	90%	3.7	18.6%	10.1%	8.5%	1.9%	3.33	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	23	93	412	121	42	15	96%	3.9	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	4.5%	5.30	5.12	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	23	93	412	121	42	15	96%	3.9	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	4.5%	5.30	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYM	20	19	76	338	104	36	11	95%	3.8	30.8%	10.7%	20.1%	3.3%	4.95	3.64	—
2026	23	AA RAW	NYM	4	4	17	74	17	6	4	100%	4.2	23.0%	8.1%	14.9%	5.4%	6.88	5.15	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYM	1	1	6	24	3	3	1	100%	5.6	12.8%	13.4%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.66	5.66	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	99	436	124	45	16	—	—	28.5%	10.4%	18.1%	3.6%	5.32	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	94	396	60	48	11	100%	5.5	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	2.8%	5.40	5.32	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	95	401	66	46	11	100%	5.9	16.4%	11.5%	4.9%	2.8%	5.20	5.12	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	95	401	69	45	11	100%	5.9	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	2.9%	5.08	5.03	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	94	395	68	45	11	100%	5.8	17.2%	11.3%	6.0%	2.9%	5.05	5.05	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	91	383	66	44	12	100%	6.0	17.1%	11.4%	5.7%	3.0%	5.10	5.13	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	87	366	62	43	12	100%	6.2	16.9%	11.7%	5.2%	3.2%	5.20	5.26	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	81	344	57	41	12	100%	5.8	16.5%	12.0%	4.6%	3.4%	5.35	5.44	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	40	169	25	21	5	100%	5.7	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	2.8%	5.40	5.32	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	63	266	44	31	8	100%	5.7	16.4%	11.5%	4.9%	2.8%	5.20	5.12	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	75	317	54	36	9	100%	6.2	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	2.9%	5.08	5.03	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	80	338	58	38	10	100%	6.2	17.2%	11.3%	6.0%	2.9%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	81	342	59	39	10	100%	5.8	17.1%	11.4%	5.7%	3.0%	5.10	5.13	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	79	334	56	39	11	100%	6.1	16.9%	11.7%	5.2%	3.2%	5.20	5.26	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	75	317	52	38	11	100%	6.2	16.5%	12.0%	4.6%	3.4%	5.35	5.44	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	493	2081	349	241	63	100%	5.9	16.8%	11.6%	5.2%	3.0%	5.18	4.80	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	142	98	26	100%	5.9	16.8%	11.6%	5.2%	3.0%	5.18	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		45	42	172	730	138	86	26	93%	3.8	18.9%	11.7%	7.2%	3.5%	4.40	4.93	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	49	200	850	161	100	30	93%	3.8	18.9%	11.7%	7.2%	3.5%	4.40	4.93	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Gabrysh (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.66	12.8%	13.4%	2.9%	—	5.16	16.2%	4.5%	284	-0.50	—	—	—
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	86
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	85
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	84
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	84
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	84
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	82
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Donal Montas R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP	5.66	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	.268	4.87	10.2%	-4.0%	78	-0.79	4.10	156	81
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	81
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	80
Yoan López R 2016 · 5.84 FIP	23	SP	5.84	10.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.282	3.67	25.5%	17.4%	153	-2.17	2.21	377	80
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	80
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	79
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	78
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	78
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	78
Jeff Brigham R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	14.5%	11.3%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	288	-0.98	3.48	620	78
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	77
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	87	16.3%	11.8%	1.15	5.24
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09