Cole Hertzler — OGILVIE

Cole Hertzler P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%23.7%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD3550

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	2.5	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	4.8%	1.80	5.11	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	2.5	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	4.8%	1.80	5.11	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	2.5	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	4.8%	1.80	5.10	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	4	16	64	22	6	0	100%	4.0	25.4%	11.1%	14.4%	0.0%	1.12	2.35	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	4	16	64	22	6	0	100%	4.0	25.4%	11.1%	14.4%	0.0%	1.12	2.35	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	4	16	64	22	6	0	100%	4.0	34.4%	9.4%	25.0%	0.0%	1.12	1.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	22	21	84	348	103	46	13	95%	3.8	23.2%	14.9%	8.3%	4.5%	3.44	5.52	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	22	21	84	348	103	46	13	95%	3.8	23.2%	14.9%	8.3%	4.5%	3.44	5.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	HOU	10	10	43	177	64	25	4	100%	4.3	36.2%	14.1%	22.0%	2.3%	2.72	3.08	—
2026	23	AA RAW	HOU	12	11	41	171	39	21	9	92%	3.4	22.8%	12.3%	10.5%	5.3%	4.20	5.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	84	354	85	34	10	100%	5.6	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	2.9%	4.29	4.24	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	85	358	87	33	10	100%	5.7	24.3%	9.2%	15.2%	2.9%	4.21	4.16	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	358	87	32	10	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	2.9%	4.17	4.14	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	84	353	86	32	10	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	2.9%	4.18	4.19	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	81	342	83	32	10	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.2%	14.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.27	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	78	327	85	28	10	100%	6.0	26.0%	8.7%	17.3%	3.2%	4.17	4.13	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	307	79	28	10	100%	6.1	25.6%	9.0%	16.6%	3.4%	4.25	4.31	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	68	287	72	27	10	100%	6.2	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	3.6%	4.41	4.51	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	63	265	66	26	10	100%	6.3	24.8%	9.7%	15.0%	3.9%	4.61	4.74	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	36	152	37	15	4	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	2.8%	4.25	4.20	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	56	236	58	22	7	100%	5.6	24.3%	9.2%	15.2%	2.8%	4.17	4.12	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	67	283	69	26	8	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	2.8%	4.13	4.10	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	71	300	73	27	9	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.15	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	72	304	74	28	9	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.2%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	4.22	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	77	26	9	100%	5.8	26.0%	8.7%	17.3%	3.1%	4.12	4.08	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	67	283	72	25	9	100%	6.1	25.6%	9.0%	16.6%	3.3%	4.20	4.26	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	63	266	67	25	9	100%	6.3	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	3.5%	4.36	4.46	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	62	24	9	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.7%	15.0%	3.7%	4.55	4.68	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	563	2377	590	218	74	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	3.1%	4.23	3.87	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	210	77	26	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	3.1%	4.23	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		28	25	105	433	103	62	17	89%	3.7	23.8%	14.3%	9.5%	3.9%	3.01	5.03	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	48	200	827	197	118	32	89%	3.7	23.8%	14.3%	9.5%	3.9%	3.01	5.03	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Hertzler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	23.7%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.18	24.3%	15.0%	254	-0.20	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	86
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	83
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	81
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	76
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	76
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	76
Chris Clark R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	18.9%	6.9%	1.7%	.362	4.77	18.1%	7.5%	330	+1.48	3.29	349	76
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	75
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	72	24.7%	9.2%	1.21	4.27
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58