Cole Hertzler
P
Asheville Tourists
+0.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.6%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%14.2%
IP14
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
OFP—45
STUF4050
CTRL—45
CMD3550
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 4 | 16 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 25.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 1.12 | 2.35 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 3 | 3 | 13 | 48 | 17 | 7 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.13 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 14 | — | 14 | 57 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 26 | 105 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 28.7% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 3.28 | 2.25 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 7 | 34 | 133 | 39 | 17 | 3 | 29.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | 1.60 | 3.47 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 42 | 200 | 790 | 232 | 101 | 18 | 29.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | 1.60 | 3.47 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Hertzler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.23 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 92 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 91 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 90 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 88 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 88 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 88 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 87 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 87 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.33 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .250 | 4.37 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.04 | 4.33 | 130 | 87 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 87 |
| Joey Stock R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.00 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.52 | 3.48 | 121 | 87 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 87 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.91 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .374 | 4.56 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.65 | 3.81 | 220 | 86 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 86 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.29 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .245 | 4.56 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 158 | +1.27 | 2.60 | 198 | 86 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.73 | 3.94 | 122 | 86 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 86 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 86 |
| Nic Enright R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.01 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.62 | 0.50 | 249 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.