Cole Hertzler
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 98
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%24.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 2.5 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 1.80 | 5.11 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 2.5 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 1.80 | 5.10 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 4 | 16 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 25.4% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 1.12 | 2.35 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 4 | 16 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 34.4% | 9.4% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.12 | 1.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 15 | 14 | 62 | 253 | 75 | 35 | 7 | 93% | 4.2 | 23.0% | 15.7% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 2.74 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 38 | 159 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 100 | 412 | 113 | 51 | 12 | — | — | 27.5% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 3.33 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 3.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 39 | 163 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.8% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 38 | 163 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.9% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 37 | 157 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 17 | 72 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.8% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.9% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 24 | 140 | 590 | 146 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 3.82 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 209 | 77 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 21 | 18 | 83 | 338 | 80 | 50 | 10 | 86% | 4.0 | 23.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 2.38 | 4.52 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 43 | 200 | 811 | 193 | 120 | 23 | 86% | 4.0 | 23.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 2.38 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Hertzler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.13 | 24.7% | 15.6% | 117 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 87 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 87 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 86 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 85 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 85 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 83 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.31 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .281 | 7.92 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.61 | 3.31 | 191 | 83 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 82 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 81 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 81 |
| Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 81 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 194 | 81 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 80 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 80 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.30 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.80 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 52 | +1.50 | 3.30 | 140 | 79 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 79 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 79 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 38 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.19 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |