Chris Clark — OGILVIE

Chris Clark P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%16.6%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	6	6	19	86	22	5	1	100%	3.2	18.9%	6.9%	12.1%	1.7%	4.66	3.29	—
2023	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	6	6	19	86	22	5	1	100%	3.2	18.9%	6.9%	12.1%	1.7%	4.66	3.29	—
2023	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	6	6	19	86	22	5	1	100%	3.2	25.6%	5.8%	19.8%	1.2%	4.66	2.27	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	105	473	102	58	12	100%	4.8	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	3.5%	6.09	5.38	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	105	473	102	58	12	100%	4.8	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	3.5%	6.09	5.38	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	105	473	102	58	12	100%	4.8	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	2.5%	6.09	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	145	630	153	47	15	93%	5.2	18.0%	8.6%	9.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	145	630	153	47	15	93%	5.2	18.0%	8.6%	9.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.36	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	26	145	630	153	47	15	93%	5.2	24.3%	7.5%	16.8%	2.4%	4.73	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	32	8	84	343	85	31	11	25%	2.6	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.8%	4.61	4.69	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	32	8	84	343	85	31	11	25%	2.6	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.8%	4.61	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	TB	27	8	72	291	68	27	8	30%	2.7	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	2.7%	4.35	3.81	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	TB	5	0	12	52	17	4	3	0%	2.3	32.7%	7.7%	25.0%	5.8%	6.17	4.48	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	27	4	3	1	0%	1.1	16.6%	10.5%	6.2%	3.0%	5.08	5.08	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	90	370	89	34	12	—	—	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	3.2%	4.64	4.72	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	132	556	98	55	17	100%	6.3	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.0%	4.94	4.90	0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	132	556	101	54	17	100%	6.3	18.2%	9.7%	8.5%	3.0%	4.85	4.83	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	130	548	101	53	17	100%	6.2	18.4%	9.7%	8.7%	3.1%	4.83	4.84	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	126	532	98	52	17	100%	6.3	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	3.2%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	120	508	92	51	17	100%	6.3	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.3%	4.97	5.04	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	113	477	85	49	17	100%	6.3	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.5%	5.12	5.22	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	58	245	43	24	8	100%	6.4	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.1%	4.99	4.95	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	88	372	68	36	12	100%	6.3	18.2%	9.7%	8.5%	3.1%	4.90	4.88	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	101	426	78	41	14	100%	6.3	18.4%	9.7%	8.7%	3.2%	4.88	4.89	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	106	448	82	44	15	100%	6.2	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	3.3%	4.92	4.96	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	105	443	80	44	15	100%	6.2	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.4%	5.02	5.09	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	102	431	77	44	16	100%	6.4	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.6%	5.18	5.28	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	560	2364	429	234	78	100%	6.3	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	3.3%	4.98	4.64	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	153	84	28	100%	6.3	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	3.3%	4.98	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		88	62	353	1532	277	160	50	70%	4.0	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	3.3%	5.10	4.69	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	868	157	91	28	70%	4.0	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	3.3%	5.10	4.69	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Clark (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	16.6%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.86	18.1%	8.4%	393	-0.22	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	93
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	89
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	88
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	88
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	87
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	87
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	87
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	85
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	84
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	84
Zach Lewis R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP-	4.14	14.9%	9.4%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	266	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	83
Kyle Haynes R 2015 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	14.3%	10.3%	1.6%	.302	4.58	15.7%	5.8%	124	+0.50	4.08	240	83
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	83
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	83
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.02	21.0%	8.4%	168	+0.58	3.79	406	83
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	120	18.0%	9.9%	1.23	4.94
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98