Chris Clark
P
Durham Bulls
+0.6
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.3 · 2029
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.1%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 6 | 6 | 19 | 86 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 1.6% | 4.66 | 3.27 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 22 | 22 | 105 | 473 | 102 | 58 | 12 | 16.6% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 6.09 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 28 | 26 | 145 | 630 | 153 | 47 | 15 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 101 | 50 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 125 | 531 | 106 | 52 | 17 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 117 | 53 | 17 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 125 | 54 | 18 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 128 | 55 | 18 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 128 | 55 | 19 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 124 | 54 | 18 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 119 | 53 | 18 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 114 | 52 | 18 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 108 | 51 | 18 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 101 | 50 | 17 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 94 | 48 | 17 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 87 | 46 | 16 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 80 | 44 | 16 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 54 | 274 | 1213 | 213 | 129 | 39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 4.72 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 884 | 155 | 94 | 28 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 4.72 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Clark (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.54 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 417 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 93 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 91 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 91 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 90 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 90 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 89 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 89 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 89 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 89 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 89 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 89 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 89 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 88 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.36 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.15 | 3.11 | 640 | 88 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 88 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 87 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 87 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 87 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.1 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.0 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1.0M |
| Totals | $11M | $57M | +$46M | ||