Chris Clark

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1007ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+LAA	22	22	105	6.09	4.30	21.6%	12.3%	—	K 16.6% · BB 14.1% · FIP 5.38
2025	23	MIX3 levels	28	26	145	4.73	3.31	24.3%	7.5%	—	K 18.0% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.36
2026	24	MIX2 levels	33	9	88	4.72	4.01	24.7%	9.4%	—	K 20.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	1	1	1	5.03	5.03	18.6%	10.2%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTB	7	7	45	4.89	4.88	19.2%	10.0%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTB	10	10	59	4.86	4.87	19.4%	9.9%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 2.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsCarlos Sano (age 25) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%18.6%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	6	6	19	86	22	5	1	100%	3.2	18.9%	6.9%	12.1%	1.7%	4.66	3.29	—
2023	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	6	6	19	86	22	5	1	100%	3.2	25.6%	5.8%	19.8%	1.2%	4.66	2.27	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	105	473	102	58	12	100%	4.8	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	3.5%	6.09	5.38	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	105	473	102	58	12	100%	4.8	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	3.5%	6.09	5.38	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	105	473	102	58	12	100%	4.8	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	2.5%	6.09	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	145	630	153	47	15	93%	5.2	18.0%	8.6%	9.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	145	630	153	47	15	93%	5.2	18.0%	8.6%	9.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.36	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	26	145	630	153	47	15	93%	5.2	24.3%	7.5%	16.8%	2.4%	4.73	3.31	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	9	88	361	89	34	12	27%	2.7	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	3.9%	4.72	4.78	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	9	88	361	89	34	12	27%	2.7	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	3.9%	4.72	4.78	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	9	88	361	89	34	12	27%	2.7	24.7%	9.4%	15.2%	3.3%	4.72	4.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	3.3%	5.03	5.03	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	103	436	84	43	14	100%	6.1	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	3.3%	4.94	4.93	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	93	394	76	39	13	100%	6.2	19.4%	9.9%	9.5%	3.3%	4.91	4.92	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	87	366	71	36	12	100%	6.2	19.4%	9.9%	9.5%	3.4%	4.93	4.97	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	80	338	65	34	12	100%	6.2	19.2%	10.1%	9.2%	3.6%	5.01	5.08	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	72	305	58	32	11	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	3.8%	5.16	5.26	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	45	190	36	19	6	100%	6.4	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	3.2%	4.89	4.88	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	59	249	48	25	8	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.86	4.87	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	65	274	53	27	9	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.9%	9.5%	3.3%	4.88	4.92	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	65	274	53	28	9	100%	5.9	19.2%	10.1%	9.2%	3.5%	4.96	5.03	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	62	262	49	27	10	100%	6.2	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	3.7%	5.10	5.20	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	49	297	1255	241	126	43	100%	6.1	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	3.4%	4.94	4.61	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	85	29	100%	6.1	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	3.4%	4.94	4.61	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		89	63	357	1550	281	163	51	71%	4.0	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	3.3%	5.12	4.71	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	869	158	91	29	71%	4.0	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	3.3%	5.12	4.71	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 72 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.61 (+0.79)K% 23.4% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.37%	—	×0.810	18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.28%	—	×1.100	10.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 15 IPFIP 4.97 → 5.51 (+0.54)K% 30.0% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.860	25.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.97 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 103 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.55 (+1.06)K% 23.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.79%	—	×0.740	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.49%	—	×1.180	8.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷1.036	×1.300	3.32%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 38 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.81 (+0.87)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.770	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.96%	—	×1.150	8.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 105 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.38 (+1.16)K% 21.6% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.56%	—	×0.770	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.26%	—	×1.150	14.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷0.916	×1.250	3.46%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AInland Empire 66ers · 19 IPFIP 2.31 → 3.29 (+0.98)K% 25.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.58%	—	×0.740	18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.81%	—	×1.180	6.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷0.897	×1.300	1.68%

Result: FIP 2.31 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Clark (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	18.6%	10.2%	3.3%	—	4.94	19.3%	9.4%	283	-0.09	—	—	—
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	89
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	87
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	85
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	83
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	82
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	82
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	82
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	82
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	81
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	81
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	81
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	80
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	80
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.02	21.6%	12.8%	192	-0.49	3.35	452	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	85	19.1%	10.0%	1.33	4.99
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Rich Folkers ('70-'77, -0 WAR*)	2.1	85	19.1%*	8.8%*	1.35*	4.91*
John Montague ('73-'80, -2 WAR*)	2.7	91	17.0%*	9.3%*	1.23*	4.98*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87