Colin Daniel — OGILVIE

Colin Daniel P Rome Emperors

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%22.0%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	13	10	55	242	60	23	12	77%	4.3	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	6.2%	5.20	6.27	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	13	10	55	242	60	23	12	77%	4.3	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	6.2%	5.20	6.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	ATL	13	10	55	242	60	23	12	77%	4.3	24.8%	9.5%	15.3%	5.0%	5.20	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	56	237	54	22	7	100%	5.6	22.9%	9.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.41	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	58	243	57	22	7	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.0%	14.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.29	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	58	246	59	22	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	8.8%	15.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.23	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	58	246	59	21	7	100%	5.8	24.0%	8.7%	15.3%	3.0%	4.23	4.21	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	57	242	58	21	7	100%	5.7	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	3.1%	4.24	4.24	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	28	118	27	11	4	100%	5.6	22.9%	9.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.41	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	40	169	40	15	5	100%	5.7	23.4%	9.0%	14.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.29	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	47	198	47	17	6	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.8%	15.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.23	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	51	215	52	19	6	100%	6.4	24.0%	8.7%	15.3%	3.0%	4.23	4.21	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	52	220	53	19	7	100%	5.8	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	3.1%	4.24	4.24	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	218	921	218	82	28	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.0%	4.30	3.88	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	75	26	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.0%	4.30	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		13	10	55	242	46	26	15	77%	4.3	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	6.2%	5.20	6.27	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	36	200	875	167	96	54	77%	4.3	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	6.2%	5.20	6.27	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colin Daniel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	22.0%	10.0%	3.1%	—	4.31	23.4%	14.4%	172	-0.28	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	88
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	87
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	82
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	82
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	82
Adam Leverett R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP-	3.41	20.4%	10.0%	1.4%	.274	4.46	16.0%	6.9%	228	+1.05	3.41	401	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	81
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	81
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	80
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	80
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	23.4%	9.0%	1.17	4.35
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68