Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | -0.28 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | -0.17 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 17 | 85 | 351 | 90 | 31 | 7 | 81% | 4.1 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.1% | 3.48 | 3.26 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 17 | 85 | 351 | 90 | 31 | 7 | 81% | 4.1 | 25.6% | 8.8% | 16.8% | 2.0% | 3.48 | 3.15 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 29 | 11 | 75 | 330 | 84 | 28 | 14 | 38% | 2.6 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 5.54 | 5.08 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 29 | 11 | 75 | 330 | 84 | 28 | 14 | 38% | 2.6 | 25.5% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 4.2% | 5.54 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 35 | 8 | 64 | 274 | 52 | 27 | 4 | 23% | 1.8 | 15.4% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 3.94 | 4.05 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 35 | 8 | 64 | 274 | 52 | 27 | 4 | 23% | 1.8 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 1.5% | 3.94 | 3.55 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 102 | 422 | 63 | 30 | 8 | 87% | 4.4 | 12.6% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 4.07 | 4.16 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 102 | 422 | 63 | 30 | 8 | 87% | 4.4 | 14.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 4.07 | 3.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 15 | 14 | 72 | 291 | 63 | 20 | 13 | 93% | 4.8 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 4.40 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 130 | 537 | 110 | 42 | 20 | — | — | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 4.44 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.12 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 9 | 53 | 222 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.25 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 76 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 71 | 401 | 1683 | 292 | 150 | 48 | 57% | 3.2 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.33 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 35 | 200 | 839 | 146 | 75 | 24 | 57% | 3.2 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Leverett (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.62 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 111 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 79 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 79 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 78 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 78 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 77 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 77 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Chad Dallas R 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 75 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 75 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 75 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 74 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 74 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 74 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 74 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 74 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 74 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 74 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 4.55 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |