JB Middleton
P
Fresno Grizzlies
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 178 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%23.2%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 5 | 5 | 20 | 93 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 4.0 | 14.3% | 16.5% | -2.2% | 4.2% | 4.95 | 6.28 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 64 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.68 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 85 | 367 | 82 | 40 | 11 | — | — | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.87 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 117 | 494 | 119 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 146 | 616 | 152 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 166 | 700 | 174 | 60 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.06 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 185 | 63 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.04 | +2.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 182 | 62 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +2.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 167 | 706 | 176 | 61 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 8.7% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +2.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 27 | 27 | 160 | 674 | 166 | 60 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.30 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 154 | 58 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.47 | +1.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 141 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 4.56 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 128 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 4.76 | 4.90 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 115 | 52 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 4.99 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 102 | 50 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 4.5% | 5.25 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 58 | 245 | 59 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 102 | 431 | 106 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 134 | 566 | 141 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.30 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 162 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 165 | 56 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 162 | 56 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 8.7% | 16.2% | 3.5% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 155 | 56 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 145 | 55 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 3.9% | 4.67 | 4.76 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 134 | 54 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 4.2% | 4.87 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 122 | 52 | 23 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 4.5% | 5.09 | 5.23 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 110 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 4.8% | 5.34 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 93 | 45 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 5.62 | 5.80 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 255 | 255 | 1512 | 6385 | 1551 | 586 | 247 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 3.9% | 4.67 | 4.34 | +18.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 78 | 33 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 3.9% | 4.67 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 5 | 5 | 20 | 93 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 4.0 | 14.3% | 16.5% | -2.2% | 4.2% | 4.95 | 6.28 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 50 | 200 | 930 | 133 | 153 | 39 | 100% | 4.0 | 14.3% | 16.5% | -2.2% | 4.2% | 4.95 | 6.28 | -2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| JB Middleton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.13 | 24.6% | 15.8% | 429 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 94 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 87 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.75 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.30 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.55 | 3.70 | 776 | 87 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.63 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 117 | +0.47 | 3.63 | 209 | 87 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.19 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 341 | +0.25 | 4.19 | 433 | 87 |
| Austin Gordon R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .315 | 5.46 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 75 | +0.76 | 4.70 | 159 | 86 |
| Cody Morris R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .362 | 2.86 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -1.14 | 2.26 | 256 | 86 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 86 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 86 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 86 |
| Cory Lewis R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.39 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .267 | 5.26 | 21.4% | 5.2% | 183 | +1.87 | 3.39 | 284 | 86 |
| Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.38 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 5.37 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.99 | 4.38 | 300 | 85 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.81 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .297 | 4.81 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 364 | +1.00 | 3.81 | 527 | 85 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.15 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .297 | 4.41 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 211 | +0.26 | 4.15 | 321 | 84 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 84 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 84 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 84 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 83 |
| Gabriel Hughes R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.95 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.58 | 210 | 83 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 13 | 141 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 4.38 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |