JB Middleton — OGILVIE

JB Middleton P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 178 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%23.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4560

CTRL—50

CMD4050

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	5	5	20	93	18	13	3	100%	4.0	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2%	4.2%	4.95	6.28	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	5	5	20	93	18	13	3	100%	4.0	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2%	4.2%	4.95	6.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	COL	5	5	20	93	18	13	3	100%	4.0	19.4%	14.0%	5.4%	3.2%	4.95	5.01	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	7	31	7	3	1	100%	7.3	23.2%	11.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	27	124	25	16	4	—	—	20.3%	13.3%	7.0%	3.2%	4.85	5.83	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	117	494	119	50	15	100%	5.3	24.1%	10.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.35	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	26	26	146	616	152	58	18	100%	5.6	24.6%	9.5%	15.2%	2.9%	4.29	4.21	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	28	28	166	700	174	64	20	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	2.9%	4.20	4.13	+1.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	29	29	175	739	185	67	22	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.11	+1.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	29	29	172	728	182	66	22	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+1.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	28	28	167	706	176	65	22	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	3.1%	4.20	4.24	+1.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	27	27	160	674	166	64	22	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	3.2%	4.30	4.37	+1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	25	25	150	634	154	62	22	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.4%	4.45	4.55	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	140	591	141	60	22	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.7%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	130	547	128	58	21	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.5%	12.9%	3.9%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	119	502	115	55	21	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	4.2%	5.07	5.22	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	58	245	59	25	8	100%	5.3	24.1%	10.1%	14.0%	3.4%	4.68	4.60	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	102	431	106	41	15	100%	5.7	24.6%	9.5%	15.2%	3.4%	4.54	4.46	+0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	23	23	134	566	141	51	19	100%	5.8	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	3.4%	4.44	4.37	+1.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	26	26	153	646	162	58	22	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	3.4%	4.40	4.36	+1.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	26	26	156	659	165	60	23	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.4%	4.40	4.40	+1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	26	26	154	650	162	60	23	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	3.5%	4.46	4.50	+1.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	25	25	149	629	155	60	23	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	3.7%	4.57	4.64	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	24	24	141	595	145	58	24	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.9%	4.74	4.84	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	133	562	134	57	24	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	4.2%	4.94	5.06	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	123	519	122	55	23	100%	6.2	23.5%	10.5%	12.9%	4.5%	5.17	5.30	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	113	477	110	52	23	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	4.8%	5.42	5.57	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		239	239	1414	5971	1459	576	226	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.7%	14.8%	3.8%	4.68	4.34	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	206	81	32	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.7%	14.8%	3.8%	4.68	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		5	5	20	93	13	15	4	100%	4.0	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2%	4.2%	4.95	6.28	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	930	133	153	39	100%	4.0	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2%	4.2%	4.95	6.28	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JB Middleton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	23.2%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.22	24.6%	15.1%	429	-0.37	—	—	—
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	95
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	91
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	89
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	87
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	801	87
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	85
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	85
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	85
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.37	23.7%	10.9%	181	+0.68	4.69	300	84
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	84
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	83
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	83
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.67	20.7%	10.8%	364	+0.72	3.95	567	83
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	83
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	143	24.4%	9.7%	1.26	4.41
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98