JB Middleton

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 178 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1269ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ACOL	5	5	20	4.95	5.20	19.4%	14.0%	—	K 14.3% · BB 16.5% · FIP 6.28
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	—	—	0	5.35	5.35	19.2%	14.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	7	7	40	5.31	5.20	21.0%	12.5%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	11	11	65	5.07	4.95	22.1%	11.3%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 7.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsMax Bain (age 23) · Will Sanders (age 22) · Connor Staine (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%19.2%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	5	5	20	93	18	13	3	100%	4.0	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2%	4.2%	4.95	6.28	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	5	5	20	93	18	13	3	100%	4.0	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2%	4.2%	4.95	6.28	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	5	5	20	93	18	13	3	100%	4.0	19.4%	14.0%	5.4%	3.2%	4.95	5.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.2%	14.3%	4.9%	3.1%	5.35	5.35	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	93	394	83	49	12	100%	5.5	21.0%	12.5%	8.5%	3.0%	5.06	4.95	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	98	415	92	47	12	100%	5.8	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.82	4.70	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	104	440	100	49	13	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.1%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.62	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	101	425	97	47	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.65	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	96	404	91	45	13	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.70	4.73	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	89	376	84	43	12	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.3%	4.80	4.86	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	81	341	75	40	12	100%	6.2	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	72	306	66	37	11	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	3.7%	5.12	5.24	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	40	169	36	21	6	100%	5.7	21.0%	12.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.31	5.20	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	65	274	61	31	10	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.5%	5.07	4.95	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	82	346	79	38	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.1%	11.6%	3.5%	4.94	4.87	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	86	363	83	40	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	3.5%	4.92	4.91	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	85	359	81	40	13	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	3.6%	4.96	4.99	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	81	342	77	39	13	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.8%	5.08	5.14	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	74	312	69	37	13	100%	6.2	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	4.0%	5.23	5.33	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	67	283	61	34	12	100%	6.1	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	4.3%	5.43	5.55	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	581	2454	546	283	91	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	3.7%	5.09	4.72	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	97	31	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	3.7%	5.09	4.72	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		5	5	20	93	13	15	4	100%	4.0	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2%	4.2%	4.95	6.28	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	930	133	153	39	100%	4.0	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2%	4.2%	4.95	6.28	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 20 IPFIP 5.01 → 6.28 (+1.27)K% 19.4% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.740	14.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.98%	—	×1.180	16.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.01 → 6.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JB Middleton (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.75	22.0%	10.4%	296	-0.60	—	—	—
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	93
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	89
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	88
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	87
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	87
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	87
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	87
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	86
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	86
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	86
Zach McCambley R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP	4.97	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.26	24.8%	12.8%	123	-1.71	2.50	392	85
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	85
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	85
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.91	18.3%	8.6%	289	-1.35	3.70	470	85
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Tanner Burns R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	23	SP	5.44	19.2%	12.8%	4.3%	.257	5.11	18.7%	6.1%	191	-0.33	4.34	382	84
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	92	21.9%	11.9%	1.23	4.89
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Frank Bertaina ('64-'70, -1 WAR*)	2.1	69	19.0%*	11.8%*	1.24*	5.03*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*