Zach McCambley
P
Louisville Bats
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111101vR 92
ERA4.01
FIP4.01
K%26.2%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%15.3%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 97 | 409 | 120 | 26 | 21 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.1% | 7.1% | 16.0% | 5.8% | 4.36 | 5.22 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 97 | 409 | 120 | 26 | 21 | 100% | 4.8 | 29.3% | 6.4% | 23.0% | 5.1% | 4.36 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 19 | 19 | 94 | 421 | 101 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.65 | 4.89 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 19 | 19 | 94 | 421 | 101 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.0% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 5.65 | 4.27 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 1 | 45 | 191 | 51 | 24 | 1 | 3% | 1.5 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 6.7% | 0.6% | 3.22 | 3.46 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 1 | 45 | 191 | 51 | 24 | 1 | 3% | 1.5 | 26.7% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 0.5% | 3.22 | 2.72 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 18 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 28 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.1% | 20.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.97 | 4.90 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 18 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 28 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.6% | 18.4% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 3.97 | 4.16 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 62 | 251 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.2% | 8.5% | 19.7% | 1.5% | 2.90 | 2.61 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 62 | 251 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 33.1% | 8.0% | 25.1% | 1.2% | 2.90 | 2.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 38 | 4 | 73 | 307 | 86 | 42 | 6 | 11% | 1.9 | 25.6% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 2.95 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 47 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 48 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 116 | 487 | 133 | 62 | 10 | — | — | 27.4% | 12.7% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 3.34 | 4.01 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 47 | 198 | 133 | 62 | 10 | — | — | 67.2% | 31.1% | 36.1% | 5.3% | 8.24 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 72 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 63 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 69 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 65 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 60 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 220 | 0 | 231 | 982 | 243 | 112 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.87 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 850 | 210 | 97 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 172 | 44 | 394 | 1677 | 388 | 198 | 51 | 26% | 2.3 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.31 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 22 | 200 | 852 | 197 | 101 | 26 | 26% | 2.3 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach McCambley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.32 | 24.7% | 13.4% | 194 | +0.31 | — | — | — |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 81 |
| Curtis Partch R 2027 · 2.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.85 | 25.9% | 9.9% | 1.2% | .345 | 3.14 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 60 | +0.29 | 2.85 | 124 | 79 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 79 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 79 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 79 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.06 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.93 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.87 | 3.06 | 251 | 79 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 78 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 78 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.05 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .293 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 37 | +1.36 | 3.05 | 205 | 78 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 77 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 77 |
| Jordan Jankowski R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.91 | 30.3% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .296 | 4.26 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.35 | 2.57 | 196 | 77 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 77 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 77 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 77 |
| Brad Brach R 2028 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 77 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 76 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 76 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 76 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.91 | 27.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .272 | 4.01 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 48 | +1.10 | 2.80 | 264 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 60 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 1.03 | 4.20 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |