Zach McCambley P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.5 WAR
Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.93
FIP3.93
xFIP
SIERA
K%25.4%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%15.6%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†6060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202122AAPensacola Blue Wahoos202097409120262123.1%7.1%6.0%4.365.33-0.1
202223AAPensacola Blue Wahoos191994421101521219.4%13.6%3.3%5.654.99+0.3
202324AAPensacola Blue Wahoos301451915124121.0%14.2%0.6%3.223.49+0.7
202425AAPensacola Blue Wahoos18023982818223.1%20.2%2.3%3.974.96-0.0
202526AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp470622518320328.2%8.5%1.4%2.902.58+1.7
▸ 2026 Season
202627AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp50103514210.93
ROS27MLBMIA48482025120525.4%9.8%2.5%3.933.93+0.6
2026 Total27MLBMIA572376522627.5%9.2%2.5%3.433.27+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202728MLBMIA47471995019525.1%9.8%2.6%3.983.99+0.5
202829MLBMIA46461944819524.9%9.8%2.6%4.044.06+0.5
202930MLBMIA45451884619524.6%9.8%2.7%4.114.14+0.4
203031MLBMIA43431824418524.3%10.0%2.8%4.184.22+0.4
203132MLBMIA41411744218524.0%10.1%2.9%4.254.30+0.3
203233MLBMIA39391663917523.7%10.3%3.0%4.344.40+0.2
203334MLBMIA37371583717523.4%10.5%3.1%4.444.51+0.2
203435MLBMIA35351493416523.0%10.7%3.2%4.564.63+0.1
203536MLBMIA33331393115522.6%11.0%3.3%4.684.77+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career1394033014053241564623.0%11.1%3.3%4.174.38+3.5
/ 200 IP8424200852196952823.0%11.1%3.3%4.174.38+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Zach McCambley (OGILVIE) 3.93 25.4%9.8%2.5% 4.06 24.9%15.1%138 +0.13
Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP 27 SU 3.21 24.2%9.6%1.7%.330 3.20 23.6%14.6%81 -0.01 2.42 125 92
Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP 27 SW 3.18 23.3%10.5%1.3%.290 3.63 22.4%13.8%71 +0.45 3.18 124 85
Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP 27 SW 3.48 24.2%8.9%2.4%.309 4.33 22.5%12.7%108 +0.85 2.36 309 85
Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP 27 SU 3.37 24.2%9.0%2.1%.237 2.63 33.1%24.9%88 -0.74 2.40 362 84
Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.42 FIP 27 SU 3.42 27.9%9.9%2.6%.301 3.61 23.6%14.3%70 +0.19 2.59 156 84
Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP 27 SU 3.29 22.9%9.1%1.8%.276 6.26 27.5%9.3%50 +2.97 2.80 155 84
Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP 27 SW 3.86 27.3%10.0%3.3%.280 4.05 28.5%17.2%107 +0.19 3.02 363 83
Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP 27 SW 3.26 26.4%8.5%2.4%.320 3.48 26.0%17.6%128 +0.22 3.07 185 83
Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.07 FIP 27 SW 3.07 23.8%9.7%1.4%.277 4.88 16.6%7.6%175 +1.81 3.07 251 83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP 27 SU 3.93 26.4%14.3%2.3%.274 4.99 22.1%8.9%69 +1.06 3.83 181 83
Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP 26 SW 3.76 23.9%12.3%2.0%.291 2.99 117 83
Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP 27 SW 3.62 25.2%11.3%2.2%.252 4.15 23.5%10.8%108 +0.53 3.07 307 82
Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP 26 SU 4.26 29.2%14.1%3.4%.307 4.26 104 82
Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP 27 SW 3.80 22.9%8.0%3.0%.295 3.70 12.4%5.2%127 -0.10 3.17 269 82
Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.09 FIP 27 SU 4.09 28.2%9.7%3.9%.277 5.99 11.9%-5.1%16 +1.90 3.86 134 82
Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP 28 SW 3.34 21.6%8.5%1.8%.276 4.07 20.3%11.3%85 +0.73 3.25 150 82
Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP 27 SW 3.49 26.8%9.6%2.6%.295 2.83 30.3%18.1%57 -0.66 2.83 239 82
Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP 27 SW 3.54 22.6%10.2%1.9%.321 2.87 28.2%18.4%140 -0.67 2.39 509 82
Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP 27 SW 3.82 23.0%9.1%2.8%.230 2.68 149 82
Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP 28 SW 3.68 25.0%7.7%3.1%.289 3.07 24.2%17.9%130 -0.61 2.31 403 81

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2029Arb-1$0.8M+0.4$2M+$0.9M
2030Arb-2$0.9M+0.4$2M+$0.9M
2031Arb-3$0.6M+0.3$1M+$0.8M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.7M+0.2$1.0M+$0.3M
2033Ext / FA-deal$0.6M+0.2$1.0M+$0.4M
Totals $4M $9M +$5M