Zach McCambley
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.5
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.93
FIP3.93
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%25.4%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%15.6%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 20 | 20 | 97 | 409 | 120 | 26 | 21 | 23.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.36 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 19 | 19 | 94 | 421 | 101 | 52 | 12 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 5.65 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 30 | 1 | 45 | 191 | 51 | 24 | 1 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 0.6% | 3.22 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 18 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 28 | 18 | 2 | 23.1% | 20.2% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 47 | 0 | 62 | 251 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 28.2% | 8.5% | 1.4% | 2.90 | 2.58 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 5 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 14 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 51 | 20 | 5 | 25.4% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 57 | 237 | 65 | 22 | 6 | 27.5% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.43 | 3.27 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 25.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 48 | 19 | 5 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 46 | 19 | 5 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 44 | 18 | 5 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 40 | 330 | 1405 | 324 | 156 | 46 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.38 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 24 | 200 | 852 | 196 | 95 | 28 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.38 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach McCambley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 25.4% | 9.8% | 2.5% | — | 4.06 | 24.9% | 15.1% | 138 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 92 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 85 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 85 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 84 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.61 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.19 | 2.59 | 156 | 84 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 84 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 83 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 83 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 83 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 83 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 83 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 82 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 82 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 82 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.09 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .277 | 5.99 | 11.9% | -5.1% | 16 | +1.90 | 3.86 | 134 | 82 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 82 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 82 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 82 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$5M | ||