Zach McCambley

P Louisville Bats

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAMIA	18	0	23	3.97	4.16	28.6%	18.4%	—	K 23.1% · BB 20.2% · FIP 4.97
2025	26	MIX2 levels	47	0	62	2.90	2.02	33.1%	8.0%	—	K 27.8% · BB 7.7% · FIP 2.50
2026	27	MIX2 levels	46	2	78	2.90	3.60	26.4%	12.3%	0.9	K 23.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.82
2027PROJ	28	MLBCIN	44	0	46	4.35	4.28	23.8%	11.2%	0.1
2028PROJ75% MLB	29	MLBCIN	38	0	40	4.41	4.45	23.2%	11.2%	0.0
2029PROJ79% MLB	30	MLBCIN	33	0	35	4.55	4.64	22.5%	11.4%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%56

FB Velo41

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsMatt Ramsey (age 28) · Daniel Robert (age 28) · Josh Lueke (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.35

FIP4.28

K%23.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.367

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	97	409	120	26	21	100%	4.8	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	6.0%	4.36	5.35	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	97	409	120	26	21	100%	4.8	29.3%	6.4%	23.0%	5.1%	4.36	4.24	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	19	94	421	101	52	12	100%	4.9	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	3.3%	5.65	4.97	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	19	94	421	101	52	12	100%	4.9	24.0%	12.4%	11.6%	2.9%	5.65	4.27	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	1	45	191	51	24	1	3%	1.5	21.0%	14.2%	6.7%	0.6%	3.22	3.49	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	1	45	191	51	24	1	3%	1.5	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	0.5%	3.22	2.72	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	18	0	23	98	28	18	2	0%	1.3	23.1%	20.2%	2.9%	2.3%	3.97	4.97	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	18	0	23	98	28	18	2	0%	1.3	23.1%	20.2%	2.9%	2.3%	3.97	4.97	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	18	0	23	98	28	18	2	0%	1.3	28.6%	18.4%	10.2%	2.0%	3.97	4.16	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	62	251	83	20	3	0%	1.3	27.8%	7.7%	20.1%	1.4%	2.90	2.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	62	251	83	20	3	0%	1.3	27.8%	7.7%	20.1%	1.4%	2.90	2.50	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	62	251	83	20	3	0%	1.3	33.1%	8.0%	25.1%	1.2%	2.90	2.02	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	2	78	326	86	40	7	4%	1.7	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	2.3%	2.90	3.82	+0.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	2	78	326	86	40	7	4%	1.7	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	2.3%	2.90	3.82	+0.7
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	2	78	326	86	40	7	4%	1.7	26.4%	12.3%	14.1%	2.1%	2.90	3.60	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	0	13	60	14	5	1	0%	1.2	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	1.7%	4.05	3.10	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CIN	44	0	46	194	46	22	5	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	2.5%	4.35	4.28	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	51	0	53	224	52	25	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	CIN	42	0	44	188	42	21	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.55	4.64	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	38	0	40	169	39	19	5	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.41	4.45	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CIN	33	0	35	148	33	17	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.55	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	0	88	377	86	41	10	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.8%	12.1%	2.7%	4.41	3.99	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	853	195	93	23	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.8%	12.1%	2.7%	4.41	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		180	42	398	1696	385	189	53	23%	2.2	22.7%	11.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.00	4.31	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	21	200	852	193	95	27	23%	2.2	22.7%	11.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.00	4.31	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 64 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.00 (+0.28)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.07%	—	×0.860	23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×0.900	11.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 41 IPFIP 2.13 → 2.53 (+0.41)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.860	26.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷0.903	×1.100	1.44%

Result: FIP 2.13 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 21 IPFIP 1.66 → 2.43 (+0.77)K% 37.8% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.80%	—	×0.810	30.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×1.100	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.103	×1.200	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 1.66 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 23 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.97 (+0.83)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.37%	—	×1.100	20.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.064	×1.200	2.30%

Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 38 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.49 (+0.61)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.88%	—	×0.810	20.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.94%	—	×1.100	14.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷1.091	×1.200	0.65%

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 94 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.97 (+0.77)K% 24.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.99%	—	×0.810	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.35%	—	×1.100	13.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.85%	÷1.048	×1.200	3.26%

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 57 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.17 (+1.03)K% 31.6% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.60%	—	×0.770	24.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.60%	—	×1.150	2.99%
HR / BF /BF	4.33%	÷1.082	×1.250	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 40 IPFIP 5.69 → 6.89 (+1.20)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.40%	—	×0.810	21.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.24%	—	×1.100	12.36%
HR / BF /BF	6.18%	÷1.011	×1.200	7.34%

Result: FIP 5.69 → 6.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach McCambley (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.54	22.8%	11.6%	98	+0.26	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	76
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	76
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	76
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	75
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	75
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	75
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	75
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	74
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	74
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	74
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	74
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	74
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	73
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	73
Peter Tago R 2021 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	21.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	207	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	23.2%	11.2%	1.02	4.40
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*