Aaron Guzman

C DSL LAD Bautista

Age 18 L/R ROK HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	134	.286/.423/.419	1	7	63	—	.196/.308/.286
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBLAD	244	.222/.297/.309	2	6	73	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBLAD	69	.220/.297/.311	1	2	78	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBLAD	164	.224/.301/.322	2	4	82	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%81

Whiff%79

Z-Con%77

wOBA68

wRC+63

BB%62

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsKevyn Castillo (age 19) · Hector Osorio (age 18) · Bo Naylor (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 112 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .294 / .306

PA112

HR1

K%23

BB%9

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$44M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
2037	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$21M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	134	105	30	5	3	1	23	20	2	7	5	286	423	419	842	133	330	15	17	372	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	134	112	22	3	2	1	16	24	2	7	5	196	308	286	593	89	218	18	12	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	134	112	22	3	2	1	16	24	2	7	5	196	308	286	593	89	231	18	12	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	—	134	105	30	5	3	1	23	20	2	7	5	286	423	419	842	133	330	15	17	372	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	134	115	22	3	2	1	16	24	2	7	5	191	308	278	586	87	218	18	12	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	134	115	22	3	2	1	16	24	2	7	5	191	308	278	586	87	218	18	12	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	LAD	0%	244	219	49	8	3	2	21	57	2	6	1	222	297	309	606	87	288	23	9	276	73	-8	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	LAD	34%	202	180	41	7	2	2	18	47	2	5	1	225	302	321	623	96	290	23	9	283	78	-5	+1	+0	+4	+4	0.3
2029	20	MLB MLE	LAD	48%	339	302	69	11	4	4	30	78	4	9	3	229	306	332	639	103	292	23	9	290	82	-7	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.7
2030	21	MLB MLE	LAD	54%	443	395	91	15	5	6	39	101	6	12	4	232	309	342	651	110	293	23	9	295	86	-8	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.1
2031	22	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	516	459	108	18	6	8	45	117	7	14	4	234	312	350	662	116	294	23	9	299	88	-7	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2032	23	MLB MLE	LAD	58%	520	462	110	18	6	9	46	118	7	14	4	236	314	357	671	121	295	23	9	302	91	-6	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2033	24	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	520	462	110	18	6	9	46	117	7	14	4	237	315	361	676	124	296	22	9	304	92	-5	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2034	25	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	520	462	111	18	6	10	46	117	7	14	4	238	315	363	679	125	296	22	9	305	93	-5	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2035	26	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	520	462	111	18	6	10	46	117	7	14	4	238	315	365	680	127	295	22	9	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2036	27	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	520	463	111	18	6	10	46	118	6	14	4	237	314	362	676	125	295	23	9	304	92	-5	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2037	28	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	520	463	109	18	6	9	46	119	6	13	5	235	312	357	669	122	294	23	9	302	90	-6	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.5
2038	29	MLB MLE	LAD	53%	520	463	107	17	5	9	46	121	6	13	5	232	309	351	660	118	292	23	9	298	88	-8	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2039	30	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	520	464	106	17	5	8	45	122	6	13	5	229	306	343	649	114	290	23	9	293	84	-10	+1	-2	+9	+11	1.0
2040	31	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	504	450	102	16	5	8	43	121	6	12	6	225	301	333	633	108	287	24	9	287	80	-12	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.5
2041	32	MLB MLE	LAD	58%	489	440	97	15	5	7	41	119	5	11	8	220	295	320	615	101	283	24	8	279	75	-14	-1	-4	+9	+11	0.0
2042	33	MLB MLE	LAD	60%	473	426	91	14	4	6	39	118	5	10	10	213	287	306	593	93	279	25	8	270	69	-17	-2	-4	+8	+10	-0.5
2028	19	MLB CTX	LAD	34%	69	62	14	2	1	1	6	16	1	2	0	220	297	311	608	91	283	23	9	277	78	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	LAD	48%	164	147	33	5	2	2	14	38	2	4	1	224	301	322	624	99	284	23	9	284	82	-3	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2030	21	MLB CTX	LAD	54%	240	214	48	8	2	3	21	55	3	7	2	226	305	332	637	106	285	23	9	289	86	-4	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2031	22	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	292	260	60	9	3	5	26	66	4	8	2	229	307	341	648	112	286	23	9	293	88	-4	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2032	23	MLB CTX	LAD	58%	299	267	62	10	3	5	26	68	4	8	2	231	309	349	658	118	287	23	9	297	91	-3	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2033	24	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	296	264	61	10	3	5	26	67	4	8	2	232	310	352	663	120	288	23	9	299	92	-3	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2034	25	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	295	263	62	10	3	6	26	67	4	8	2	233	311	355	666	122	288	23	9	300	93	-3	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2035	26	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	294	262	62	10	3	6	26	66	4	8	2	233	311	356	667	123	288	22	9	301	93	-2	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2036	27	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	289	257	60	9	3	6	26	66	4	8	2	232	310	354	664	122	287	23	9	299	92	-3	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2037	28	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	286	256	59	9	3	5	25	66	3	7	2	230	308	349	657	119	286	23	9	297	90	-3	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.8
2038	29	MLB CTX	LAD	53%	278	249	56	9	2	5	24	65	3	7	3	228	305	342	648	115	285	23	9	293	88	-4	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2039	30	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	297	266	60	9	3	5	26	70	3	7	3	225	301	335	636	110	283	24	9	288	84	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2040	31	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	276	247	54	8	2	4	24	66	3	6	3	220	296	325	621	104	280	24	9	282	80	-6	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.3
2041	32	MLB CTX	LAD	58%	284	255	54	8	2	4	24	69	3	6	4	215	290	312	603	97	276	24	8	275	75	-8	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.0
2042	33	MLB CTX	LAD	60%	285	256	54	8	2	4	24	71	3	6	6	209	283	298	581	89	272	25	8	266	69	-10	-1	-3	+5	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3944	3525	799	124	37	66	344	916	48	100	36	227	304	339	643	112	287	23	9	290	85	-66	+6	-8	+70	+85	8.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	131	20	6	11	57	151	8	16	6	225	303	337	641	112	285	23	9	290	85	-11	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	7372	6565	1518	245	80	117	648	1700	90	192	77	231	309	346	655	115	292	23	9	294	85	-122	+8	-15	+129	+157	16.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	134	22	7	10	57	150	8	17	7	231	309	345	654	114	293	23	9	294	85	-11	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ray Schalk'12-'29 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,217 PA	9.4	6,217	11	177	238*	322*	355*	+111	+0	22.1	19.8
/162	664	1	19	+11.9	+0.0	2.4	pk7: 18
#2Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#3Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.1	4,056	64	104	232	305	347	+72	+36	12.0	10.0
/162	664	10	17	+11.9	+5.9	2.0	pk7: 8
#5Randy Hundley'64-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,797 PA	5.7	3,797	82	12	236*	295*	383*	+68	+0	8.0	8.7
/162	664	14	2	+11.8	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Guzman (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	220/294/306	87	288	1	3	23%	9%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	45→46	39→55	52→50	46	212/280/301	90	299	6	9	30%	9%	66	-1.1	196/254/318	122	282	11	8	33%	7%	60	-1.6	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	47→54	40→50	50→55	54	224/305/318	94	270	6	14	19%	10%	80	-0.2	233/325/328	95	314	7	17	25%	11%	90	+0.6	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	43→53	38→50	50→40	55	201/288/280	79	244	5	8	19%	10%	65	-1.2	227/293/354	127	281	14	4	23%	8%	84	+0.1	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Derek Bernard 2024 · A	18	43→46	40	54→50	47	206/274/303	97	275	7	16	26%	8%	65	-1.2	215/276/314	99	339	7	13	36%	7%	68	-1.0	218/283/320	102	353	8	12	38%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Welbyn Francisca 2024 · A	18	44→41	39→45	50→55	48	208/283/300	92	277	5	12	25%	8%	68	-1.0	228/294/332	104	296	9	20	24%	8%	78	-0.3	225/294/339	114	289	12	24	25%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Emmanuel Avila 2007 · A	18	45→55	36→45	50→45	54	206/294/278	71	267	2	9	22%	10%	67	-1.1	203/252/261	58	256	2	6	21%	5%	46	-2.6	279/319/373	94	320	8	6	15%	4%	96	+0.8
✕Marco Vargas 2023 · A	18	44→46	37→40	50→60	55	207/289/284	77	258	3	13	20%	10%	66	-1.1	207/297/275	68	283	3	18	25%	11%	67	-1.1	220/295/283	63	320	3	36	29%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	50→54	37→40	51→50	59	233/335/302	69	298	4	15	21%	12%	88	+0.4	212/309/287	75	349	4	12	35%	12%	75	-0.5	225/310/326	101	351	8	14	35%	11%	79	-0.1
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Aron Estrada 2024 · A	19	47→54	41→50	52→55	54	220/310/327	107	272	6	9	20%	10%	84	+0.2	247/301/365	118	304	11	21	22%	6%	88	+0.5	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Juan Brito 2021 · A	19	45→50	39→50	53→45	49	213/277/301	88	254	6	13	18%	7%	65	-1.2	229/306/349	120	287	11	10	22%	9%	87	+0.4	231/317/370	139	276	13	9	20%	10%	94	+0.8
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	46→53	41→45	52→55	47	212/293/316	104	323	7	14	34%	10%	75	-0.5	217/315/345	128	302	15	12	30%	12%	91	+0.6	218/312/337	119	292	14	14	28%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Dario Laverde 2024 · A	19	46→34	37→40	52→30	50	214/292/297	83	279	3	11	23%	9%	70	-0.9	207/268/284	77	295	4	4	29%	7%	57	-1.8	196/254/265	68	282	4	0	30%	6%	45	-1.6
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1

Aaron Guzman

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps