Marco Vargas

SS Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 22 L/R 5'11" / 170 lbs AA H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#679ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	ANYM	168	.208/.376/.238	0	13	54	—	.186/.309/.214
2025	20	A+/ANYM	463	.258/.355/.323	2	40	55	—	.217/.281/.270
2026	21	AA/A/INTL2 orgs	312	.274/.360/.398	5	33	88	—	.256/.322/.362
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBNYM	4	.199/.269/.268	0	0	57	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBNYM	90	.205/.277/.291	1	5	66	-0.0
2029PROJ47% MLB	24	MLBNYM	155	.210/.282/.307	2	9	71	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed97

Chase%86

Z-Con%72

Whiff%69

wRC+67

BB%60

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 78%

CompsLuis Durango (age 21) · Jean Ramirez (age 22) · Nasim Nuñez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .269 / .268

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP291

ISO70

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	221	182	58	13	3	2	35	32	0	14	6	319	429	456	885	137	368	14	16	391	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	31	26	8	0	0	0	5	7	0	3	2	308	419	308	727		421	23	16	346	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Mets	—	219	167	45	14	1	2	48	31	2	10	2	269	438	401	839	132	316	14	22	384	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	168	130	27	4	0	0	34	38	1	13	2	208	376	238	614	31	284	23	20	300	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	408	355	85	9	4	1	48	82	1	38	7	239	332	296	627	56	304	20	12	291	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	55	44	18	3	0	1	10	7	1	2	1	409	527	545	1.073	136	472	13	18	478	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	237	209	59	9	4	3	27	68	0	28	1	282	364	407	771	124	403	29	11	346	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	34	27	7	1	0	1	7	11	0	1	0	259	412	407	819	148	400	32	21	376	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	41	38	9	1	0	1	3	10	0	4	0	237	293	342	635	105	296	24	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	221	191	38	8	2	1	26	40	0	14	6	199	295	277	572	79	235	18	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	31	27	7	0	0	0	4	10	0	3	2	259	355	259	614		386	32	13	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	219	185	37	11	1	2	30	47	2	10	2	200	318	303	621	103	246	21	14	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	168	140	26	4	0	0	24	52	1	13	2	186	309	214	523	29	274	31	14	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	408	374	73	7	3	1	29	106	1	38	7	195	255	238	493	43	263	26	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	55	47	18	3	0	1	7	9	1	2	1	383	473	511	983	128	456	16	13	427	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	237	217	57	8	4	2	19	83	0	28	1	263	322	364	686	101	407	35	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	34	29	6	1	0	1	5	15	0	1	0	207	324	345	668	138	363	44	15	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	221	191	38	8	2	1	26	40	0	14	6	199	295	277	572	79	240	18	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	221	182	58	13	3	2	35	32	0	14	6	319	429	456	885	137	368	14	16	391	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	250	213	44	11	1	2	33	57	2	13	4	207	319	296	614	89	269	23	13	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	250	193	53	14	1	2	53	38	2	13	4	275	435	389	824	114	329	15	21	379	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	168	140	26	4	0	0	24	52	1	13	2	186	309	214	523	29	286	31	14	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	—	168	130	27	4	0	0	34	38	1	13	2	208	376	238	614	31	284	23	20	300	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	463	420	91	10	3	2	37	115	2	40	8	217	283	269	552	52	290	25	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	463	399	103	12	4	2	58	89	2	40	8	258	355	323	678	65	324	19	13	313	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	312	283	72	10	4	4	28	113	0	33	1	254	322	360	682	106	407	36	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	312	274	75	11	4	5	37	89	0	33	1	274	360	398	758	124	387	29	12	342	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	221	193	38	8	2	1	26	40	0	14	6	197	295	275	570	78	235	18	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	250	213	44	11	1	2	33	57	2	13	4	207	319	296	614	89	263	23	13	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	168	141	26	4	0	0	24	52	1	13	2	184	309	213	522	28	274	31	14	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	463	421	91	10	3	2	37	115	2	40	8	216	283	268	552	52	286	25	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	312	281	72	10	4	4	28	113	0	33	1	256	322	363	685	107	401	36	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	168	141	26	4	0	0	24	52	1	13	2	184	309	213	522	28	274	31	14	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	463	421	91	10	3	2	37	115	2	40	8	216	283	268	552	52	286	25	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	312	281	72	10	4	4	28	113	0	33	1	256	322	363	685	107	401	36	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	2%	393	356	73	11	3	3	33	122	1	22	3	205	275	276	551	71	300	31	8	253	57	-20	+3	-1	+4	+9	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	199	269	268	537	69	291	25	0	247	57	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	35%	256	231	49	7	2	3	22	78	1	15	2	212	282	299	582	88	300	30	9	265	66	-10	+2	+0	+3	+6	0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	47%	333	300	66	10	3	5	29	99	1	19	2	216	288	315	603	99	301	30	9	274	71	-11	+3	+1	+4	+7	0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	372	335	73	11	3	6	33	109	1	21	2	219	291	325	616	106	301	29	9	279	75	-11	+3	+2	+4	+8	0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	54%	393	353	78	12	3	7	35	113	2	22	3	221	293	331	624	110	300	29	9	282	77	-11	+3	+2	+4	+9	0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	54%	399	359	79	12	3	7	35	114	2	22	3	221	293	332	626	111	299	29	9	283	78	-11	+3	+2	+4	+9	0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	54%	398	359	79	12	3	7	35	115	1	20	2	219	291	328	619	109	299	29	9	280	76	-11	+3	+2	+4	+9	0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	53%	388	350	77	12	3	7	34	113	1	17	2	217	289	322	611	105	297	29	9	277	73	-12	+3	+1	+4	+8	0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	376	339	73	11	3	6	33	111	1	14	2	214	285	315	600	101	296	30	9	272	70	-13	+2	+0	+4	+8	0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	35%	90	82	17	2	1	1	8	27	0	5	1	205	277	291	567	85	291	30	9	259	66	-4	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	47%	155	140	29	4	1	2	13	46	1	9	1	210	282	307	589	96	292	30	8	268	71	-5	+1	+1	+2	+3	0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	193	173	36	5	1	3	17	56	1	11	1	213	285	317	602	104	292	29	9	273	75	-6	+2	+1	+2	+4	0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	54%	213	191	42	6	2	4	19	61	1	12	1	214	287	322	609	108	291	29	9	276	77	-6	+2	+1	+2	+5	0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	54%	217	195	42	6	2	4	19	62	1	12	1	215	288	323	611	109	290	29	9	277	78	-6	+2	+1	+2	+5	0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	54%	216	194	41	6	1	4	19	62	1	11	1	213	286	319	605	106	289	29	9	274	76	-6	+2	+1	+2	+5	0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	53%	206	185	38	6	1	3	18	60	1	9	1	211	283	313	596	102	288	29	9	271	73	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	197	177	36	5	1	3	17	58	1	7	1	208	280	306	586	98	287	29	9	266	70	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1487	1337	281	40	10	24	130	432	7	76	8	210	284	309	592	99	289	29	9	272	71	-46	+12	+6	+16	+32	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	121	17	4	10	57	189	3	33	3	207	281	301	582	94	286	29	9	272	71	-20	+5	+2	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4534	4058	883	136	35	58	421	1293	16	275	40	218	294	311	605	94	301	29	9	273	71	-102	+25	+10	+33	+68	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	126	19	5	8	60	185	2	39	6	216	291	308	599	91	300	28	9	273	71	-21	+5	+2	+7	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 237 PAwOBA .337 → .303 (−34)K% 28.7% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.69%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	35.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.97%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.06%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.50%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.015	×1.050	31.53%
Doubles /BIP	6.38%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.015	×1.050	5.85%
Triples /BIP	2.84%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.015	×1.050	2.87%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.74%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .337 → .303; ISO .124 → .109; BABIP .403 → .407. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 34 PAwOBA .367 → .276 (−91)K% 32.4% → 44.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.35%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	44.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.59%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	14.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.25%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.015	29.18%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.015	5.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	5.07%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .367 → .276; ISO .148 → .107; BABIP .400 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 408 PAwOBA .287 → .226 (−61)K% 20.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.10%	÷1.011	×1.310	—	—	26.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.022	×0.600	—	×1.042	7.20%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	0.20%
Singles /BIP	26.01%	÷1.021	×0.870	×0.985	×1.042	22.75%
Doubles /BIP	3.30%	÷0.989	×0.780	×0.985	×1.042	2.67%
Triples /BIP	1.47%	÷1.051	×0.850	×0.985	×1.042	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	0.37%	÷1.073	×0.880	—	×1.042	0.31%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .287 → .226; ISO .056 → .046; BABIP .304 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASt. Lucie Mets · 55 PAwOBA .467 → .427 (−40)K% 12.7% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.73%	÷1.060	×1.360	—	—	16.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.030	13.56%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.46%
Singles /BIP	37.84%	÷0.977	×0.920	—	×1.030	36.71%
Doubles /BIP	8.11%	÷0.903	×0.830	—	×1.030	7.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.70%	÷0.855	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.60%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 95, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 112, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .467 → .427; ISO .136 → .133; BABIP .472 → .456. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 168 PAwOBA .299 → .248 (−51)K% 22.6% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.62%	÷0.990	×1.360	—	—	31.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.24%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.045	14.17%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.49%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.957	×0.920	×0.973	×1.045	24.43%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.954	×0.830	×0.973	×1.045	3.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.973	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.826	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .299 → .248; ISO .031 → .027; BABIP .284 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Mets · 219 PAwOBA .377 → .277 (−100)K% 14.2% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.16%	÷0.949	×1.440	—	—	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.46%	÷1.004	×0.620	—	×1.022	13.55%
HBP% /PA	0.91%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.67%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.046	×0.820	×0.988	×1.022	16.30%
Doubles /BIP	10.29%	÷0.953	×0.720	×0.988	×1.022	7.85%
Triples /BIP	0.74%	÷0.979	×0.720	×0.988	×1.022	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	1.47%	÷1.040	×0.780	—	×1.022	1.13%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 91, 3B 96, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .377 → .277; ISO .132 → .104; BABIP .316 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 31 PAwOBA .338 → .271 (−67)K% 22.6% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷0.947	×1.360	—	—	32.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.13%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×1.050	11.96%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	42.11%	÷1.054	×0.920	—	×1.050	38.60%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.987	×0.830	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.274	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .338 → .271; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .421 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Miami · 221 PAwOBA .388 → .260 (−128)K% 14.5% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.48%	÷0.982	×1.220	—	—	17.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.84%	÷0.963	×0.700	—	×1.022	11.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.021	×0.680	×0.963	×1.022	17.48%
Doubles /BIP	8.67%	÷0.963	×0.600	×0.963	×1.022	5.32%
Triples /BIP	2.00%	÷1.036	×0.600	×0.963	×1.022	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	1.33%	÷1.249	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.51%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .388 → .260; ISO .137 → .078; BABIP .368 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#2Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#3Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.2	1,491	25	76	219	287	324	+16	+12	2.3	2.3
/162	664	11	34	+7.1	+5.4	1.0	pk7: 2
#6Enzo Hernandez'71-'78 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,612 PA	3.9	2,612	2	129	222*	281*	294*	+28	+4	1.6	1.9
/162	664	1	33	+7.0	+1.0	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marco Vargas (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	203/273/274	71	300	1	12	31%	8%	57	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Durango 2024 · A	21	47	35→30	57→70	48	219/296/278	59	287	3	29	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/289/285	58	305	2	36	24%	5%	65	-1.2	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Jean Ramirez 2023 · A	22	44→49	41→40	56→65	45	213/279/306	94	287	9	31	28%	8%	67	-1.1	212/273/286	74	303	6	23	30%	7%	59	-1.6	204/268/260	56	297	5	24	31%	8%	49	-1.3
✕Nasim Nuñez 2022 · A	21	46→51	34→30	57→65	50	211/292/259	47	300	2	32	28%	10%	61	-1.5	216/303/273	57	308	3	41	27%	11%	69	-0.9	214/299/272	58	299	5	52	27%	10%	65	-1.0
✕Elijah Nunez 2024 · A	22	50	37→30	57→55	50	230/305/301	71	317	5	29	27%	10%	76	-0.4	186/273/244	58	288	3	27	32%	10%	51	-2.2	157/254/200	43	256	1	30	35%	10%	34	-1.4
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2018 · A	22	47	39→45	60→65	40	214/279/301	87	335	5	30	35%	7%	65	-1.2	184/245/280	96	312	8	27	41%	6%	49	-2.4	220/296/327	107	310	12	41	30%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Tony Campana 2009 · A	23	45→55	35→30	58→70	43	214/263/269	55	282	3	28	24%	6%	51	-2.2	259/300/306	47	335	1	40	21%	5%	73	-0.6	277/319/328	50	356	1	56	21%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Diego Hernandez 2023 · AA	22	51→54	39→40	56→60	42	242/292/330	87	323	7	29	26%	6%	76	-0.4	220/258/309	89	306	8	18	29%	4%	59	-1.7	205/236/289	84	289	8	14	31%	3%	43	-1.3
✕Bryan Hudson 2017 · A	22	53	34→30	55→60	53	239/323/295	57	333	1	26	26%	11%	81	-0.1	212/280/266	54	333	2	22	33%	9%	58	-1.7	187/251/202	15	311	0	30	37%	8%	30	-1.8
✕Guy Lipscomb 2024 · A	23	49	37→40	63→60	52	225/307/306	81	303	3	36	25%	10%	78	-0.3	226/292/313	87	288	5	29	22%	8%	73	-0.6	223/287/309	86	277	6	31	21%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Yhoswar Garcia 2024 · A	22	39	37→30	58→70	39	190/246/264	74	268	4	27	30%	5%	45	-2.7	209/257/270	61	275	2	42	23%	6%	49	-2.4	208/255/258	50	270	1	58	22%	6%	44	-1.6
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	45	36→30	59→65	55	206/294/273	67	255	2	31	19%	10%	65	-1.2	202/272/269	67	274	3	16	25%	8%	55	-1.9	164/228/210	46	226	0	10	25%	7%	23	-1.2
✕Luis Valdez 2022 · A	22	46→52	37→40	58→70	44	217/282/292	75	299	4	26	27%	7%	65	-1.2	210/262/273	63	318	3	44	32%	6%	52	-2.2	201/253/258	56	307	3	56	33%	6%	43	-1.5
✕Michael Siani 2022 · A	23	38→45	39→45	55→60	43	187/258/272	85	276	7	25	33%	8%	52	-2.2	210/281/311	101	279	9	30	26%	8%	69	-0.9	211/284/306	95	276	9	33	25%	9%	67	-0.8
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	41	40	55→65	40	193/274/284	91	302	8	31	36%	8%	61	-1.5	218/287/317	99	301	6	26	28%	7%	73	-0.6	227/297/325	98	303	3	32	24%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Isaiah Greene 2024 · A	22	41→42	38→40	56→55	50	187/286/268	81	306	5	19	36%	12%	62	-1.4	198/272/294	96	312	7	14	35%	9%	62	-1.4	155/236/258	102	239	4	15	34%	10%	37	-0.6
✕Theo Bowe 2013 · A	22	52→57	35→30	57→60	46	242/302/303	61	321	3	35	24%	7%	74	-0.6	220/272/302	82	290	6	25	25%	6%	63	-1.4	186/227/268	82	237	7	23	24%	5%	35	-1.5
✕Rey Fuentes 2013 · AA	22	47→57	38→40	57→60	40	220/273/301	81	311	5	27	30%	6%	63	-1.4	261/313/355	94	344	7	29	24%	6%	90	+0.6	283/333/378	95	362	7	33	22%	6%	99	+0.9
✕Kenny Wilson 2013 · A	23	43→51	37→40	58→60	43	200/275/272	72	286	4	29	29%	7%	58	-1.7	224/281/310	86	309	5	27	27%	6%	68	-1.0	232/284/321	90	316	5	29	27%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Ty Morrison 2012 · A	22	49→54	38→40	60→55	37	224/271/306	82	334	4	27	33%	5%	63	-1.4	234/286/316	82	322	3	19	26%	5%	71	-0.8	248/303/335	87	332	2	22	24%	5%	78	-0.3
✕Jayce Easley 2024 · AA	24	40→46	36→30	59→65	51	188/283/254	65	263	4	33	27%	10%	58	-1.7	184/261/244	60	291	4	21	34%	9%	47	-2.6	134/214/150	16	239	0	29	40%	8%	7	-2.0

Marco Vargas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps