Luis Valdez
SS Chesapeake Baysox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+/A2 orgs | 301 | .209/.270/.293 | 2 | 47 | 17 | — | .163/.206/.235 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A+/A/ROK/INTL4 orgs | 198 | .230/.316/.270 | 0 | 40 | 34 | — | .180/.235/.228 |
| 2025 | 25 | AABAL | 138 | .181/.212/.244 | 0 | 14 | 18 | — | .188/.212/.250 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBBAL | 2 | .210/.268/.315 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBBAL | 34 | .210/.269/.316 | 1 | 1 | 62 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 100 | 84 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 333 | 429 | 440 | 869 | 107 | 422 | 21 | 11 | 386 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 67 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 233 | 292 | 317 | 609 | 83 | 333 | 31 | 7 | 269 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 424 | 377 | 102 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 95 | 6 | 59 | 14 | 271 | 348 | 342 | 691 | 72 | 355 | 22 | 9 | 316 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 276 | 249 | 49 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 77 | 2 | 43 | 5 | 197 | 262 | 285 | 547 | 88 | 270 | 28 | 7 | 247 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 25 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 333 | 360 | 375 | 735 | 42 | 500 | 32 | 4 | 333 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 19 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 368 | 250 | 618 | 333 | 21 | 16 | 301 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 73 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 164 | 222 | 209 | 431 | 45 | 250 | 33 | 7 | 199 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 32 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 308 | 438 | 423 | 861 | 115 | 400 | 19 | 19 | 391 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 34 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 267 | 353 | 300 | 653 | 33 | 333 | 18 | 12 | 306 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 40 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 257 | 333 | 257 | 590 | 375 | 28 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 138 | 127 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 181 | 212 | 244 | 456 | 63 | 287 | 35 | 3 | 197 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 100 | 88 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 227 | 316 | 284 | 600 | 57 | 285 | 26 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 67 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 194 | 231 | 274 | 505 | 81 | 298 | 42 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 424 | 388 | 95 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 122 | 6 | 59 | 14 | 245 | 306 | 296 | 602 | 52 | 350 | 29 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 276 | 257 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 102 | 2 | 43 | 5 | 156 | 199 | 230 | 429 | 74 | 235 | 37 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 280 | 292 | 572 | 42 | 437 | 44 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 19 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 235 | 316 | 235 | 551 | 325 | 26 | 11 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 73 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 130 | 167 | 174 | 341 | 43 | 212 | 44 | 4 | 142 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 32 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 250 | 344 | 357 | 701 | 107 | 354 | 25 | 12 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 34 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 188 | 235 | 219 | 454 | 31 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 138 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 188 | 212 | 250 | 462 | 62 | 304 | 41 | 2 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 100 | 87 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 230 | 316 | 287 | 604 | 57 | 317 | 26 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 100 | 84 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 333 | 429 | 440 | 869 | 107 | 422 | 21 | 11 | 386 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 450 | 107 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 149 | 6 | 71 | 15 | 238 | 296 | 293 | 589 | 56 | 348 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 491 | 437 | 116 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 | 116 | 6 | 71 | 15 | 265 | 341 | 339 | 680 | 73 | 352 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 281 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 113 | 2 | 47 | 6 | 164 | 206 | 235 | 441 | 71 | 259 | 38 | 4 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 301 | 273 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 85 | 2 | 47 | 6 | 209 | 270 | 293 | 563 | 84 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 254 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 5 teams | — | 198 | 181 | 32 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 66 | 0 | 40 | 8 | 177 | 240 | 215 | 455 | 39 | 276 | 33 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | 5 teams | — | 198 | 174 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 51 | 0 | 40 | 8 | 230 | 316 | 270 | 586 | 40 | 323 | 26 | 11 | 273 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 138 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 188 | 212 | 250 | 462 | 62 | 329 | 41 | 2 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 138 | 127 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 181 | 212 | 244 | 456 | 63 | 287 | 35 | 3 | 197 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 100 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 225 | 316 | 281 | 597 | 56 | 285 | 26 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 451 | 107 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 149 | 6 | 71 | 15 | 237 | 296 | 293 | 588 | 55 | 343 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 283 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 113 | 2 | 47 | 6 | 163 | 206 | 233 | 439 | 71 | 252 | 38 | 4 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 5 teams | — | 198 | 181 | 32 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 66 | 0 | 40 | 8 | 177 | 240 | 215 | 455 | 39 | 265 | 33 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 138 | 133 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 180 | 212 | 241 | 453 | 60 | 304 | 41 | 2 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 5 teams | — | 198 | 181 | 32 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 66 | 0 | 40 | 8 | 177 | 240 | 215 | 455 | 39 | 265 | 33 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 138 | 133 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 180 | 212 | 241 | 453 | 60 | 304 | 41 | 2 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 2% | 200 | 183 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 57 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 266 | 309 | 574 | 102 | 280 | 28 | 6 | 259 | 62 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 268 | 315 | 584 | 106 | 284 | 50 | 0 | 263 | 62 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 27% | 128 | 118 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 207 | 266 | 310 | 576 | 103 | 280 | 29 | 6 | 260 | 62 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 27% | 34 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 269 | 316 | 585 | 106 | 284 | 29 | 6 | 264 | 62 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 344 | 608 | 125 | 286 | 29 | 6 | 264 | 44 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 612 | 134 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 38 | 191 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 343 | 608 | 124 | 286 | 29 | 6 | 264 | 44 | -29 | +4 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1440 | 1323 | 269 | 36 | 14 | 7 | 83 | 471 | 14 | 201 | 36 | 203 | 258 | 268 | 525 | 64 | 306 | 33 | 6 | 233 | 44 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 121 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 213 | 6 | 91 | 16 | 203 | 256 | 265 | 521 | 62 | 306 | 33 | 6 | 233 | 44 | -29 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 138 PAwOBA .194 → .195 (+1)K% 34.8% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.78% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.90% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 2.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.78% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 24.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.53% | ÷0.970 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 2.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.80% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 4.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.248 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .194 → .195; ISO .063 → .066; BABIP .287 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 73 PAwOBA .197 → .142 (−55)K% 32.9% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.88% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 43.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.85% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 4.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.93% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 18.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .197 → .142; ISO .045 → .031; BABIP .250 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 34 PAwOBA .299 → .214 (−85)K% 17.6% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 7.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.901 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 107, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .299 → .214; ISO .033 → .025; BABIP .333 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 32 PAwOBA .382 → .311 (−71)K% 18.8% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 12.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 27.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.216 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 4.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .382 → .311; ISO .115 → .099; BABIP .400 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABowie Baysox · 19 PAwOBA .294 → .254 (−40)K% 21.1% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 32.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.135 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .294 → .254; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 276 PAwOBA .244 → .189 (−55)K% 27.9% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.90% | ÷0.986 | ×1.310 | — | — | 37.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 4.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.19% | ÷1.037 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 16.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.12% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .244 → .189; ISO .088 → .074; BABIP .270 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 25 PAwOBA .324 → .236 (−88)K% 32.0% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.00% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 2.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 43.75% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 39.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.101 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.940 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 104, 2B 120, 3B 88, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .324 → .236; ISO .042 → .026; BABIP .500 → .437. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 424 PAwOBA .310 → .272 (−38)K% 22.4% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.41% | ÷1.061 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷0.979 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.43% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 29.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.61% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.42% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.128 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.50% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 91, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 112, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .310 → .272; ISO .072 → .057; BABIP .355 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .