Derek Bernard

SS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 21 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#415ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	18	ROKCOL	175	.296/.360/.440	1	9	34	—	.188/.234/.279
2025	19	A/ROKCOL	320	.306/.385/.452	6	15	82	—	.243/.303/.353
2026	20	A+/A/ROKCOL	416	.259/.369/.399	9	10	73	—	.212/.296/.317
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBCOL	526	.200/.275/.305	9	9	65	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBCOL	125	.219/.293/.355	3	2	73	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBCOL	198	.227/.301/.382	6	4	82	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%90

Chase%41

wOBA40

Speed40

K%39

Z-Con%37

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsParker Meadows (age 21) · Carlos Jimenez (age 21) · Bo Naylor (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .273 / .302

PA210

HR4

K%32

BB%9

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	16	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	308	378	439	817	131	428	27	9	362	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	311	416	563	979	252	351	18	14	422	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	296	360	440	800	145	451	32	9	356	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	290	252	76	17	1	6	32	70	3	13	6	302	387	448	835	147	395	24	11	371	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	30	29	10	4	0	0	1	8	0	2	0	345	367	483	849	138	476	27	3	375	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Spokane Indians	—	61	50	11	3	0	1	11	16	0	2	0	220	361	340	701	120	303	26	18	327	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	334	284	77	15	2	8	44	84	2	8	4	271	373	423	795	151	352	25	13	354	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	21	17	3	0	0	0	3	10	1	0	1	176	333	176	510		429	48	14	264	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	220	45	8	1	2	15	75	3	11	4	205	265	277	542	73	291	31	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	158	30	7	2	3	19	38	1	17	3	190	281	316	597	127	230	21	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	165	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	188	234	279	513	91	359	46	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	290	263	65	13	1	5	21	100	3	13	6	247	310	361	671	114	372	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	30	29	6	2	0	0	1	12	0	2	0	207	233	276	509	69	366	40	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	61	53	9	2	0	1	8	22	0	2	0	170	279	264	543	94	275	36	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	334	297	68	12	2	6	31	114	2	8	4	229	306	343	649	114	335	34	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	21	18	1	0	0	0	2	14	1	0	1	56	190	56	246		346	67	10	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	220	45	8	1	2	15	75	3	11	4	205	265	277	542	73	299	31	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	308	378	439	817	131	428	27	9	362	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	158	30	7	2	3	19	38	1	17	3	190	281	316	597	127	227	21	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	311	416	563	979	252	351	18	14	422	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	165	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	188	234	279	513	91	361	46	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	—	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	296	360	440	800	145	451	32	9	356	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	292	72	16	1	5	22	112	3	15	6	247	306	360	666	113	381	35	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	320	281	86	21	1	6	33	78	3	15	6	306	385	452	837	146	404	24	10	371	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	416	368	79	15	2	7	41	150	3	10	5	215	299	323	622	109	335	36	10	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	416	351	91	18	2	9	58	110	3	10	5	259	369	399	768	140	347	26	14	346	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	221	45	8	1	2	15	75	3	11	4	204	265	276	541	72	291	31	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	158	30	7	2	3	19	38	1	17	3	190	281	316	597	127	230	21	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	163	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	190	234	282	516	92	359	46	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	292	72	16	1	5	22	112	3	15	6	247	306	360	666	113	371	35	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	416	369	79	15	2	7	41	150	3	10	5	214	299	322	621	108	327	36	10	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	163	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	190	234	282	516	92	359	46	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	292	72	16	1	5	22	112	3	15	6	247	306	360	666	113	371	35	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	416	369	79	15	2	7	41	150	3	10	5	214	299	322	621	108	327	36	10	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	COL	0%	526	472	95	19	2	9	45	168	4	9	4	200	275	305	580	104	286	32	9	264	65	-22	+0	-1	+6	+11	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	COL	34%	364	326	68	13	1	8	32	113	3	7	3	208	283	329	612	121	288	31	9	277	73	-12	+0	-1	+4	+8	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	COL	48%	408	366	79	15	2	11	36	124	3	8	3	215	290	353	643	138	289	30	9	289	82	-9	+0	-0	+4	+9	0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	COL	53%	455	409	91	17	2	14	40	136	3	9	3	220	296	371	666	150	291	30	9	298	88	-7	+1	-0	+5	+10	0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	COL	55%	505	451	101	19	2	16	45	148	4	9	4	224	299	382	681	158	291	29	9	304	92	-5	+0	-0	+5	+11	1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	COL	56%	526	470	106	19	2	18	47	153	4	9	4	226	301	389	691	163	291	29	9	307	94	-4	+0	-0	+6	+11	1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	COL	55%	527	471	106	19	2	18	47	154	4	9	4	225	301	387	687	162	291	29	9	306	93	-4	+0	-0	+6	+11	1.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	COL	55%	522	467	104	19	2	17	46	154	4	8	4	223	299	382	681	159	290	30	9	303	92	-5	+0	-1	+6	+11	1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	511	458	101	18	2	16	45	152	3	6	3	221	296	376	672	155	289	30	9	300	89	-7	+0	-2	+5	+11	0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	COL	53%	498	448	98	18	2	15	44	149	3	5	3	218	293	369	661	151	287	30	9	296	86	-8	-0	-3	+5	+11	0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	COL	56%	481	433	93	17	2	14	42	146	3	3	5	214	288	360	647	145	284	30	9	290	82	-10	-1	-3	+5	+10	0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	COL	59%	460	415	86	15	1	13	39	142	3	3	6	209	282	347	629	138	280	31	8	283	77	-12	-2	-4	+5	+10	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	COL	34%	125	112	25	5	1	3	11	39	1	2	1	219	293	355	647	136	302	31	9	290	73	-4	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	COL	48%	198	178	40	7	1	6	17	60	1	4	1	227	301	382	682	155	304	30	9	304	82	-4	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	COL	53%	240	215	49	9	1	8	21	72	2	5	2	233	307	401	708	169	305	30	9	314	88	-4	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	COL	55%	276	247	58	10	2	10	25	81	2	5	2	237	311	414	725	178	306	29	9	321	92	-3	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	COL	56%	293	263	63	11	2	11	26	85	2	5	2	239	313	422	735	183	306	29	9	325	94	-2	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	COL	55%	290	260	62	11	2	11	26	85	2	5	2	238	312	419	731	181	306	29	9	323	93	-2	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	COL	55%	285	256	61	11	2	11	25	84	2	4	2	236	310	414	724	178	305	29	9	320	92	-3	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	273	245	57	10	1	10	24	81	2	3	2	233	307	407	714	174	303	30	9	316	89	-4	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	COL	53%	262	235	54	10	1	9	23	79	2	3	2	230	303	399	702	169	301	30	9	312	86	-4	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	COL	56%	272	244	55	10	1	9	24	83	2	1	3	226	299	388	687	162	298	31	9	305	82	-6	-1	-2	+3	+6	0.0
2038	32	MLB CTX	COL	59%	272	246	54	9	1	9	23	84	1	2	3	221	292	375	667	154	294	31	8	297	77	-7	-1	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2786	2501	578	103	15	97	245	833	19	39	22	231	305	401	705	170	304	30	9	313	82	-43	-1	-8	+30	+60	3.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	135	24	3	23	57	194	4	9	5	231	304	401	705	170	303	30	9	313	82	-10	-0	-2	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6799	6106	1328	248	30	182	587	2094	49	142	67	217	291	357	649	140	296	31	9	289	82	-91	-2	-16	+59	+118	7.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	127	24	3	17	56	200	5	14	6	217	291	356	648	139	297	31	9	289	82	-11	-0	-2	+7	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 334 PAwOBA .350 → .288 (−62)K% 25.1% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.15%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	34.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.17%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.23%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.47%
Singles /BIP	26.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	25.49%
Doubles /BIP	7.50%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	6.63%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.25%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .350 → .288; ISO .151 → .121; BABIP .352 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 61 PAwOBA .319 → .252 (−68)K% 26.2% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.23%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	35.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.03%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.027	13.15%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.027	19.24%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.027	7.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.027	2.51%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .319 → .252; ISO .120 → .094; BABIP .303 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Rockies · 21 PAwOBA .259 → .143 (−115)K% 47.6% → 68.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	47.62%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	68.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	8.72%
HBP% /PA	4.76%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	3.38%
Singles /BIP	42.86%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.985	34.62%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .259 → .143; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .429 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 290 PAwOBA .363 → .295 (−68)K% 24.1% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.14%	÷0.951	×1.360	—	—	34.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.03%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×1.030	7.16%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.83%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.022	×0.920	×1.050	×1.030	27.82%
Doubles /BIP	9.34%	÷1.055	×0.830	×1.050	×1.030	7.95%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷1.017	×0.910	×1.050	×1.030	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	3.30%	÷0.870	×0.800	—	×1.030	3.12%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 103, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .363 → .295; ISO .147 → .122; BABIP .395 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rockies · 30 PAwOBA .365 → .235 (−130)K% 26.7% → 38.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷0.993	×1.440	—	—	38.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.33%	÷0.987	×0.620	—	×0.995	2.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.021	×0.820	—	×0.995	22.83%
Doubles /BIP	19.05%	÷0.991	×0.720	—	×0.995	13.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.970	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .365 → .235; ISO .138 → .084; BABIP .476 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rockies · 175 PAwOBA .347 → .219 (−128)K% 32.0% → 46.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.00%	÷0.991	×1.440	—	—	46.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.57%	÷1.035	×0.620	—	×1.008	5.17%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.41%
Singles /BIP	30.10%	÷1.003	×0.820	×1.030	×1.008	25.52%
Doubles /BIP	9.71%	÷1.034	×0.720	×1.030	×1.008	7.01%
Triples /BIP	4.85%	÷1.150	×0.720	×1.030	×1.008	3.15%
Home runs /BIP	0.97%	÷1.044	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.73%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .347 → .219; ISO .145 → .082; BABIP .451 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Colorado · 180 PAwOBA .416 → .272 (−144)K% 17.8% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.78%	÷1.030	×1.220	—	—	21.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.44%	÷0.967	×0.700	—	×1.008	10.54%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.39%
Singles /BIP	21.85%	÷1.049	×0.680	×1.050	×1.008	14.98%
Doubles /BIP	9.24%	÷0.968	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	6.06%
Triples /BIP	2.52%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	1.78%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.146	×0.470	—	×1.008	2.43%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 110, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .416 → .272; ISO .252 → .137; BABIP .351 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Rockies · 241 PAwOBA .354 → .237 (−117)K% 27.4% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.39%	÷1.070	×1.220	—	—	31.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.71%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.44%
HBP% /PA	1.24%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.89%
Singles /BIP	32.43%	÷1.043	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	22.71%
Doubles /BIP	8.11%	÷0.990	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	5.28%
Triples /BIP	1.35%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	2.70%	÷1.233	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.05%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 114, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .354 → .237; ISO .131 → .072; BABIP .428 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#2Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
#3Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.5	2,995	89	43	219	290	368	+32	-5	6.2	5.8
/162	664	20	9	+7.1	-1.1	1.4	pk7: 5
#6Andujar Cedeno'90-'96 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,233 PA	3.4	2,233	47	26	228*	284*	371*	+24	-20	1.3	1.3
/162	664	14	8	+7.1	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derek Bernard (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	199/273/302	104	286	4	4	32%	9%	65	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	40→48	41→55	46→55	42	198/255/291	92	273	9	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	206/267/338	132	276	14	13	29%	7%	70	-0.8	229/297/399	170	285	18	21	26%	8%	94	+0.9
✕Carlos Jimenez 2024 · A	21	39→44	40→50	52→55	44	186/271/278	93	294	7	15	36%	9%	59	-1.7	222/298/356	134	324	13	17	33%	9%	86	+0.3	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Bo Naylor 2021 · A	21	41→46	44→55	51→50	42	206/261/333	127	283	11	7	30%	7%	66	-1.1	204/287/354	150	283	17	13	32%	10%	82	-0.0	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Gavin Conticello 2024 · A	21	36→46	45	48→50	40	185/254/310	126	264	13	8	34%	7%	59	-1.6	219/279/344	125	300	11	8	29%	7%	76	-0.4	230/290/358	128	308	12	7	28%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2024 · A	21	40	38→45	48→45	46	192/271/267	75	284	6	7	32%	9%	55	-1.9	191/263/273	82	291	6	4	33%	8%	53	-2.1	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	37→47	40→50	50	43	184/249/278	93	269	7	6	33%	8%	49	-2.4	210/269/296	86	292	7	9	28%	7%	61	-1.5	224/304/369	145	297	14	13	28%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2024 · AA	22	43→46	43→55	51→50	42	213/264/326	114	277	10	11	27%	6%	66	-1.1	230/284/377	147	283	17	11	24%	7%	85	+0.2	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Izaac Pacheco 2024 · A	21	37→40	43→50	46→45	39	186/244/295	109	281	11	6	36%	7%	51	-2.2	192/261/331	139	309	16	5	40%	8%	67	-1.1	185/263/344	159	294	20	3	41%	9%	69	-0.6
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→49	39→55	49→45	44	198/268/289	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	59	-1.6	217/280/371	154	321	18	7	36%	7%	83	+0.1	222/291/386	164	273	18	6	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2024 · A	21	38→44	41→50	52→50	43	182/258/286	104	279	7	9	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/276/370	150	298	17	10	31%	6%	81	-0.1	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
●Ryan Schimpf 2011 · A	23	38→41	43→60	52→45	38	188/252/310	122	285	9	10	36%	6%	58	-1.7	196/271/353	157	270	17	6	32%	8%	76	-0.4	203/284/421	218	238	27	2	28%	8%	96	+0.8
●Jack Suwinski 2019 · A	21	41→43	41→60	47→50	40	200/258/299	99	283	8	6	31%	6%	57	-1.8	196/265/325	129	294	14	6	36%	8%	66	-1.1	212/308/419	207	282	28	10	34%	11%	104	+1.4
✕Joe Mack 2024 · A	21	41→44	39→55	45	43	198/267/273	75	282	8	2	31%	8%	55	-1.9	218/280/363	145	290	18	5	30%	7%	81	-0.1	220/283/384	165	281	22	4	29%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Angel Ortiz 2024 · A	21	40→45	39→50	47→45	40	197/244/283	86	268	6	8	28%	6%	48	-2.5	228/285/354	126	301	11	6	26%	7%	80	-0.1	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Ryan Mount 2008 · A	21	43	42→50	51→50	42	212/267/315	102	290	10	13	30%	6%	64	-1.3	228/267/355	127	292	14	10	26%	5%	74	-0.6	242/286/380	138	297	15	8	23%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/262/292	91	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/270/308	113	293	13	8	36%	7%	65	-1.2	180/256/294	114	253	15	7	34%	7%	55	-0.8
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→48	42→55	45→50	49	189/279/298	109	272	9	7	32%	11%	66	-1.1	205/296/340	135	284	14	9	30%	11%	82	-0.0	233/312/421	188	299	22	7	28%	10%	105	+1.6
✕Isan Díaz 2018 · A	22	40→43	47→55	45	43	202/273/336	134	296	14	8	35%	8%	72	-0.7	214/284/363	149	300	16	8	32%	8%	82	+0.0	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
●Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	37→47	43→55	52→40	42	187/254/301	114	257	10	7	30%	7%	57	-1.8	222/292/368	146	299	15	3	29%	8%	86	+0.3	232/298/415	183	288	22	1	27%	8%	99	+0.8

Derek Bernard

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps