Derek Bernard — OGILVIE

Derek BernardSS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs A H +10%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 3.0 · 2032

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .263 / .325

PA316

HR7

SB9

K%34

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗40

PWR

40↗57

SPD

50↘47

FLD

45↗48

EYE

45↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.8	$26M	+$25M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.0	$29M	+$28M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.9	$29M	+$28M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+2.8	$28M	+$23M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+2.6	$27M	+$18M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+2.3	$25M	+$13M
Totals		$29M		$163M	+$135M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Rockies	241	221	49	9	2	2	14	85	3	11	4	.222	.277	.308	.585	.086	.348	35	6	.256	54	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.3
2023	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	180	160	37	9	3	4	17	44	1	17	3	.231	.309	.400	.709	.169	.289	24	9	.310	95	-1	+2	+0	+2	+5	0.8
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	175	165	30	6	2	1	9	82	1	9	5	.182	.229	.261	.489	.079	.354	47	5	.207	17	-16	-0	+0	+2	+5	-1.0
2025	19	A	2 teams	320	292	73	16	1	6	22	109	3	15	6	.250	.309	.373	.682	.123	.376	34	7	.289	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	85	77	20	3	0	3	7	27	1	3	2	.260	.329	.416	.745	.156	.362	32	8	.319	102	+0	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
ROS	20	MLB	COL	231	210	45	9	1	5	17	78	2	6	3	.214	.279	.338	.618	.124	.307	34	7	.278	71	-8	+0	-0	+2	+7	0.1
TOT	20	MLB	COL	316	287	65	12	1	8	24	105	3	9	5	.226	.293	.359	.652	.132	.326	33	8	.289	79	-7	-0	-0	+3	+9	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 11%	COL	374	339	76	15	2	9	29	117	3	10	4	.224	.291	.360	.651	.136	.308	31	8	.291	81	-8	+0	-1	+4	+11	0.6
2028	22	MLB 28%	COL	458	414	95	18	2	13	37	139	4	12	4	.229	.299	.377	.676	.147	.309	30	8	.303	90	-5	+1	-1	+5	+13	1.3
2029	23	MLB 48%	COL	512	459	108	20	2	17	43	151	5	12	4	.235	.308	.399	.706	.163	.309	29	8	.314	98	-1	+1	-1	+5	+15	1.9
2030	24	MLB 62%	COL	546	489	118	22	3	19	47	159	5	12	4	.241	.314	.415	.729	.174	.310	29	9	.322	104	+3	+1	-1	+6	+15	2.4
2031	25	MLB 80%	COL	566	506	122	22	3	21	50	164	5	12	4	.241	.316	.421	.736	.180	.312	29	9	.327	108	+5	+1	-1	+6	+16	2.8
2032	26	MLB 94%	COL	576	514	126	23	3	22	52	166	5	12	4	.245	.320	.430	.750	.185	.312	29	9	.330	110	+7	+1	-1	+6	+16	3.0
2033	27	MLB	COL	577	514	125	23	3	22	53	167	5	11	4	.243	.320	.428	.748	.185	.312	29	9	.330	110	+7	+1	-1	+6	+16	2.9
2034	28	MLB	COL	573	510	124	22	3	22	53	167	5	10	3	.243	.320	.427	.748	.184	.312	29	9	.329	110	+6	+1	-2	+6	+16	2.8
2035	29	MLB	COL	564	501	120	22	2	21	53	166	5	9	3	.240	.318	.417	.736	.178	.311	29	9	.326	108	+5	+1	-2	+6	+16	2.6
2036	30	MLB	COL	554	492	116	21	2	20	52	165	5	8	3	.236	.315	.409	.724	.173	.310	30	9	.323	106	+3	+0	-3	+6	+16	2.3
2037	31	MLB	COL	540	480	112	20	2	19	50	163	5	7	2	.233	.312	.402	.714	.169	.309	30	9	.320	103	+2	+1	-4	+6	+15	2.0
2038	32	MLB	COL	522	464	107	19	2	18	48	161	5	5	1	.231	.309	.397	.706	.166	.307	31	9	.315	99	-1	+1	-4	+6	+15	1.6
2039	33	MLB	COL	492	440	99	18	2	16	45	155	4	5	1	.225	.303	.384	.687	.159	.305	32	9	.309	95	-3	+1	-5	+5	+14	1.2
2040	34	MLB	COL	446	398	89	16	2	14	41	144	4	4	1	.224	.302	.379	.682	.156	.304	32	9	.302	89	-5	+0	-6	+5	+13	0.7
2041	35	MLB	COL	391	350	75	13	1	12	35	130	3	4	0	.214	.291	.360	.651	.146	.301	33	9	.294	83	-7	+1	-6	+4	+11	0.2
2042	36	MLB	COL	331	295	62	11	1	9	30	114	3	4	0	.210	.290	.346	.635	.136	.298	34	9	.285	76	-9	+1	-7	+4	+9	-0.2
2043	37	MLB	COL	267	240	48	8	1	7	23	94	2	3	0	.200	.275	.329	.605	.129	.294	35	9	.275	68	-10	+1	-7	+3	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9436	8453	1956	362	45	299	820	2920	83	198	63	.231	.306	.391	.697	.160	.314	31	9	.309	95	-56	+14	-54	+101	+267	27.9
/ 162G	—			650	582	135	25	3	21	56	201	6	14	4	.232	.305	.393	.699	.162	.314	31	9	.309	95	-4	+1	-4	+7	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Rockies	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	.308	.378	.439	.817	.131	.428	27	9	.362	135	+10	+1	—	—	+7	1.7
2023	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	.311	.416	.563	.979	.252	.351	18	14	.422	181	+16	+2	—	—	+5	2.4
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	.296	.360	.440	.800	.145	.451	32	9	.356	130	+6	-0	—	—	+5	1.1
2025	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	290	252	76	17	1	6	32	70	3	13	6	.302	.387	.448	.835	.147	.395	24	11	.371	142	+14	+0	—	—	+8	2.3
2025	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	30	29	10	4	0	0	1	8	0	2	0	.345	.367	.483	.849	.138	.476	27	3	.375	145	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derek Bernard (OGILVIE)	20	30→40	40→57	50→47	40	.202/.263/.325	.123	.295	7	7	34%	7%	62	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→41	46→50	53→55	45	.189/.278/.319	.129	.289	14	15	37%	10%	67	-0.5	.210/.289/.331	.121	.326	12	16	36%	9%	74	-0.1	.216/.296/.349	.133	.314	15	19	33%	9%	78	+0.1
●Oneil Cruz 2019 · A	20	43→51	43→60	47→55	36	.212/.251/.327	.115	.305	11	8	34%	5%	55	-1.4	.228/.271/.373	.145	.324	16	13	33%	5%	76	+0.1	.241/.304/.442	.201	.317	25	22	31%	8%	103	+1.7
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2018 · A	20	43→51	42→60	51→60	34	.204/.251/.303	.099	.324	9	10	39%	5%	50	-1.8	.203/.258/.367	.164	.307	21	12	39%	6%	70	-0.3	.248/.322/.446	.198	.304	27	36	27%	9%	113	+2.3
●Bo Naylor 2021 · A	21	41→43	44→55	50	43	.203/.259/.325	.122	.273	11	7	29%	7%	59	-1.1	.199/.278/.352	.153	.276	18	12	33%	9%	75	-0.0	.216/.308/.399	.183	.269	22	12	28%	11%	97	+1.2
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A	20	43→40	46→55	48→45	41	.212/.271/.348	.137	.301	12	9	33%	7%	70	-0.3	.202/.271/.334	.132	.293	13	8	33%	8%	67	-0.5	.204/.284/.367	.164	.263	21	5	30%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	.188/.259/.305	.117	.281	12	9	36%	7%	55	-1.4	.194/.278/.291	.097	.346	7	8	42%	9%	59	-1.1	.146/.273/.221	.075	.359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
●James Outman 2019 · A	22	40→49	47→60	53→50	39	.203/.260/.335	.132	.285	15	11	34%	6%	63	-0.9	.196/.265/.334	.138	.273	16	13	33%	7%	65	-0.7	.223/.317/.418	.195	.310	25	14	34%	10%	107	+2.0
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→47	43→50	46→50	46	.188/.269/.299	.110	.273	10	7	33%	10%	58	-1.2	.198/.288/.331	.133	.275	13	9	30%	11%	74	-0.1	.206/.294/.357	.151	.275	17	10	30%	11%	81	+0.4
●Ryan McMahon 2015 · A	20	41→51	46→55	43→45	39	.206/.261/.343	.136	.298	13	6	34%	6%	65	-0.7	.230/.283/.380	.150	.335	15	7	34%	6%	84	+0.6	.230/.314/.391	.161	.298	19	6	28%	10%	98	+1.6
●Will Benson 2018 · A	20	41→51	43→55	52→55	36	.187/.255/.300	.112	.333	10	11	44%	7%	52	-1.6	.171/.257/.309	.138	.261	17	11	39%	10%	56	-1.3	.221/.322/.401	.180	.313	18	26	32%	12%	102	+1.4
●Lewis Brinson 2014 · A	20	36→46	47→55	52→50	31	.178/.230/.308	.130	.314	15	14	46%	5%	43	-2.2	.220/.268/.368	.148	.324	17	14	36%	6%	75	-0.0	.237/.289/.413	.176	.298	20	17	27%	6%	92	+0.8
●Derek Norris 2009 · A	20	40→50	42→55	49→50	43	.194/.269/.300	.106	.295	9	6	35%	9%	58	-1.2	.209/.301/.372	.163	.281	20	6	31%	11%	91	+1.1	.254/.332/.403	.149	.311	15	5	22%	10%	106	+1.6
●Trevor Story 2014 · A	21	37→47	46→65	54→55	37	.188/.245/.318	.129	.283	13	13	37%	6%	52	-1.6	.205/.268/.364	.159	.310	17	16	37%	7%	73	-0.1	.270/.336/.500	.231	.327	29	25	26%	8%	134	+3.6
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	40→45	47→45	45	.183/.271/.272	.089	.286	7	6	36%	10%	52	-1.6	.190/.265/.267	.077	.298	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	.182/.268/.267	.085	.274	6	3	33%	10%	48	-0.6
●Trent Grisham 2018 · A	21	41→48	39→60	54→55	48	.194/.279/.284	.090	.292	6	20	33%	10%	58	-1.2	.212/.297/.350	.138	.286	15	15	29%	10%	82	+0.5	.238/.325/.431	.194	.282	22	14	23%	10%	110	+1.9
✕Michael Chavis 2016 · A	20	35→45	46→60	45	33	.185/.226/.311	.126	.279	13	7	38%	4%	42	-2.3	.206/.253/.358	.152	.281	18	5	33%	5%	66	-0.6	.235/.292/.438	.203	.304	29	3	32%	6%	100	+1.1
●MJ Melendez 2019 · A	20	37→47	48→60	44→50	35	.191/.247/.335	.144	.299	15	5	40%	6%	57	-1.2	.179/.239/.336	.157	.290	19	6	43%	7%	55	-1.4	.220/.307/.417	.197	.267	25	4	27%	11%	100	+1.7
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	42	.223/.277/.357	.134	.288	13	15	27%	6%	75	-0.0	.225/.291/.388	.163	.272	19	14	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
●Josh Lowe 2018 · A	20	44→54	40→55	48→60	39	.208/.263/.300	.092	.328	8	11	37%	7%	54	-1.4	.201/.262/.317	.116	.307	12	17	36%	7%	59	-1.1	.255/.314/.435	.180	.350	20	31	31%	8%	108	+1.9
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	43→50	45→60	48→50	45	.216/.275/.346	.130	.280	12	13	27%	7%	71	-0.3	.222/.270/.365	.143	.297	15	12	29%	6%	74	-0.1	.218/.285/.408	.191	.271	26	8	29%	8%	90	+0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)