Derek Bernard — OGILVIE

Derek BernardSS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION267 act + 178 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .295 / .356

PA178

HR4

SB5

K%33

BB%8

BABIP323

ISO131

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER57

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$12M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.6	$14M	+$11M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+2.7	$14M	+$9M
2033	Arb-3	$14M	+2.7	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$31M		$75M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	241	221	49	9	2	2	14	83	3	11	4	222	277	308	585	86	343	34	6	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	308	378	439	817	131	428	27	9	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	180	160	36	9	3	4	17	43	1	17	3	225	303	394	697	169	278	24	9	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	311	416	563	979	252	351	18	14	422	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	175	165	30	6	2	1	9	82	1	9	5	182	229	261	489	79	354	47	5	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	296	360	440	800	145	451	32	9	356	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	320	294	69	14	1	7	20	116	3	15	6	235	290	361	651	126	360	36	6	280	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	320	281	86	21	1	6	33	78	3	15	6	306	385	452	837	146	404	24	10	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	COL	—	267	237	57	10	1	6	25	92	3	8	4	241	321	367	688	127	362	34	9	301	88	-4	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.7
YTD	20	A	COL	—	267	227	66	12	1	7	35	68	3	8	4	291	392	445	837	154	383	25	13	374	144	+13	+0	+0	+3	+8	2.4
ROS	20	A	COL	0%	178	160	36	7	1	4	14	58	2	5	2	225	295	356	652	131	314	33	8	282	74	-5	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.2
ROS	20	MLB	COL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		338	—	—	296	84	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	COL	—	267	238	57	10	1	6	25	92	3	8	4	239	321	366	686	126	359	34	9	301	88	-4	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.7
TOT	20	A	COL	—	445	397	93	17	2	10	39	150	5	13	6	234	311	363	673	128	346	34	9	293	83	-9	+0	-0	+5	+13	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	COL	34%	490	444	99	19	2	11	39	156	4	10	4	223	292	349	641	126	314	32	8	289	79	-11	+0	-1	+5	+14	0.7
2028	22	MLB	COL	48%	508	458	105	19	2	14	41	157	4	10	4	229	298	371	669	142	314	31	8	302	89	-6	+0	-1	+5	+14	1.3
2029	23	MLB	COL	54%	545	490	115	21	2	17	45	164	5	10	4	235	306	390	695	155	314	30	8	311	96	-2	+0	-1	+6	+15	1.9
2030	24	MLB	COL	55%	569	512	123	22	3	19	47	169	5	11	4	240	310	406	717	166	315	30	8	318	101	+1	+1	-1	+6	+16	2.3
2031	25	MLB	COL	56%	581	522	127	23	3	21	49	171	5	11	4	243	314	420	734	176	315	29	8	322	105	+3	+1	-1	+6	+16	2.6
2032	26	MLB	COL	56%	585	526	129	23	3	22	49	173	5	11	4	245	316	426	741	181	315	30	8	324	106	+4	+1	-1	+6	+17	2.7
2033	27	MLB	COL	55%	583	523	128	23	3	22	50	172	5	11	4	245	317	426	743	182	315	30	9	324	106	+4	+1	-1	+6	+17	2.7
2034	28	MLB	COL	55%	577	517	124	22	2	21	50	171	5	10	4	240	313	412	725	172	315	30	9	323	106	+4	+0	-2	+6	+16	2.5
2035	29	MLB	COL	53%	567	508	122	22	2	21	49	170	5	9	4	240	313	415	729	175	314	30	9	322	104	+3	+0	-2	+6	+16	2.3
2036	30	MLB	COL	53%	556	498	119	21	2	20	48	168	5	9	3	239	312	410	722	171	313	30	9	319	102	+1	+1	-3	+6	+16	2.1
2037	31	MLB	COL	52%	541	484	114	20	2	19	47	165	5	8	3	236	310	403	713	167	311	30	9	315	99	-0	+0	-4	+6	+15	1.8
2038	32	MLB	COL	52%	522	468	109	19	2	18	45	161	4	7	3	233	306	397	703	165	308	31	9	310	95	-3	+0	-4	+6	+15	1.4
2039	33	MLB	COL	52%	493	444	100	17	2	16	42	155	4	6	2	225	298	381	679	155	304	31	9	303	90	-6	+0	-5	+5	+14	0.9
2040	34	MLB	COL	47%	446	402	88	14	2	14	38	143	3	5	2	219	291	368	659	149	298	32	9	294	83	-8	+0	-6	+5	+13	0.4
2041	35	MLB	COL	43%	391	352	74	11	1	12	33	128	3	4	2	210	284	349	633	139	291	33	8	284	76	-11	+0	-6	+4	+11	-0.2
2042	36	MLB	COL	34%	331	299	61	9	1	9	27	111	2	3	1	204	274	331	605	127	285	34	8	274	68	-12	+0	-7	+4	+9	-0.6
2027	21	MLB	COL	34%	168	152	36	7	1	4	13	54	1	3	1	237	301	375	676	138	338	32	8	304	91	-2	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.5
2028	22	MLB	COL	48%	246	222	56	11	1	8	20	76	2	5	2	252	320	419	739	167	339	31	8	318	101	+0	+0	-0	+3	+7	1.0
2029	23	MLB	COL	54%	296	267	68	13	1	11	24	89	3	6	2	255	323	434	758	180	339	30	8	329	110	+3	+0	-1	+3	+8	1.5
2030	24	MLB	COL	55%	315	283	74	14	2	12	26	93	3	6	2	261	330	452	782	191	340	30	8	336	115	+5	+0	-1	+3	+9	1.8
2031	25	MLB	COL	56%	325	292	76	14	2	13	27	96	3	6	2	260	329	455	785	195	340	30	8	340	119	+7	+0	-1	+3	+9	2.0
2032	26	MLB	COL	56%	329	295	78	14	2	14	28	97	3	6	2	264	334	468	802	203	341	29	9	343	121	+8	+0	-1	+4	+9	2.1
2033	27	MLB	COL	55%	322	289	77	14	2	14	27	95	3	6	2	266	335	474	809	208	341	30	8	343	121	+7	+0	-1	+3	+9	2.0
2034	28	MLB	COL	55%	316	283	74	14	1	13	27	94	3	6	2	261	332	456	788	194	340	30	9	342	120	+7	+0	-1	+3	+9	1.9
2035	29	MLB	COL	53%	303	271	71	13	1	13	26	91	3	5	2	262	333	461	795	199	339	30	9	340	118	+6	+0	-1	+3	+9	1.7
2036	30	MLB	COL	53%	292	262	67	12	1	12	25	88	3	5	2	256	328	447	774	191	338	30	9	337	116	+5	+0	-2	+3	+8	1.6
2037	31	MLB	COL	52%	282	254	64	12	1	11	24	86	2	4	2	252	321	437	758	185	336	30	9	333	113	+4	+0	-2	+3	+8	1.3
2038	32	MLB	COL	52%	271	244	61	11	1	11	23	84	2	4	1	250	320	439	758	189	332	31	8	327	109	+3	+0	-2	+3	+8	1.2
2039	33	MLB	COL	52%	255	229	57	10	1	10	22	80	2	3	1	249	320	432	752	183	328	31	9	320	103	+1	+0	-3	+3	+7	0.9
2040	34	MLB	COL	47%	210	188	45	7	1	8	18	67	2	2	1	239	312	415	727	176	321	32	9	311	96	-1	+0	-3	+2	+6	0.5
2041	35	MLB	COL	43%	167	150	35	5	1	6	14	55	1	2	1	233	303	400	703	167	314	33	8	300	88	-2	+0	-3	+2	+5	0.2
2042	36	MLB	COL	34%	112	101	22	3	0	4	9	38	1	1	0	218	288	366	655	149	307	34	8	288	79	-3	+0	-2	+1	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4209	3783	961	174	19	164	353	1283	37	70	25	254	324	440	764	186	338	30	8	330	110	+50	+4	-22	+45	+119	20.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	148	27	3	25	55	198	6	11	4	253	324	438	762	185	338	30	8	330	110	+8	+1	-3	+7	+18	3.1
Career	—			—	9379	8447	1957	350	43	294	773	2916	79	192	72	232	302	388	690	156	315	31	8	305	92	-85	+10	-47	+100	+266	24.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	135	24	3	20	54	202	5	13	5	231	301	385	685	154	314	31	8	305	92	-6	+1	-3	+7	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	308	378	439	817	131	428	27	9	362	135	+10	+1	—	—	+7	1.7
2023	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	311	416	563	979	252	351	18	14	422	181	+16	+2	—	—	+5	2.4
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	296	360	440	800	145	451	32	9	356	130	+6	-0	—	—	+5	1.1
2025	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	290	252	76	17	1	6	32	70	3	13	6	302	387	448	835	147	395	24	11	371	142	+14	+0	—	—	+8	2.3
2025	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	30	29	10	4	0	0	1	8	0	2	0	345	367	483	849	138	476	27	3	375	145	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,531	148	75	233	301	393	+45	-6	14.5	12.2
	/162	664	22	11	233	301	393	+6.6	-0.9	2.1	pk7: 10
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derek Bernard (OGILVIE)	20	30→40	40→57	50→47	40	234/311/363	128	346	10	13	34%	9%	83	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→43	42→55	53→50	44	188/268/290	102	278	10	11	34%	8%	55	-1.4	201/284/321	120	321	11	16	37%	9%	69	-0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9
●Bo Naylor 2021 · A	21	40→44	44→55	51→50	41	201/254/327	127	274	11	7	30%	6%	57	-1.2	199/281/358	159	276	19	13	33%	10%	79	+0.3	218/311/403	185	271	23	12	27%	11%	99	+1.3
●Trevor Story 2013 · A	20	40→49	44→60	53→55	41	200/261/322	123	284	11	10	32%	7%	59	-1.1	191/252/329	138	303	14	15	39%	7%	58	-1.2	247/315/451	204	301	24	25	26%	8%	113	+2.3
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	35→45	42→55	45→50	44	176/254/278	102	265	9	7	35%	9%	46	-2.0	196/287/331	135	277	14	9	32%	11%	73	-0.1	224/298/396	172	291	21	8	29%	9%	92	+0.9
●Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	40→47	42→60	46→55	43	200/256/299	99	268	10	9	28%	7%	51	-1.7	204/265/350	146	271	17	13	30%	7%	69	-0.4	226/293/417	190	275	23	21	26%	8%	95	+1.4
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	42→49	45→60	49→50	43	209/267/335	126	281	12	13	29%	7%	65	-0.7	223/270/369	146	300	15	12	29%	6%	76	+0.0	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	39	187/256/305	118	276	12	9	35%	7%	54	-1.4	197/279/292	95	352	7	8	42%	9%	60	-1.0	146/272/221	75	359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
●Oneil Cruz 2019 · A	20	44→53	43→60	47→60	36	215/254/327	113	317	10	8	35%	5%	57	-1.2	231/275/380	149	331	16	14	33%	6%	80	+0.4	242/304/444	202	319	24	22	31%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A	20	44→42	46→55	48→45	41	215/274/356	141	304	13	9	32%	7%	73	-0.1	201/270/334	133	295	13	8	34%	8%	66	-0.6	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Izaac Pacheco 2023 · A	20	40→39	42→55	47→45	41	197/258/304	107	294	9	8	35%	7%	53	-1.5	182/243/308	126	303	14	5	42%	7%	49	-1.8	175/248/341	166	298	20	3	46%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
●Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	42→55	56→55	46	201/275/316	115	288	8	13	31%	9%	63	-0.8	212/280/338	126	319	10	16	34%	8%	72	-0.2	240/322/392	152	311	15	24	26%	11%	100	+1.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	38→40	45→55	50	46	193/270/323	130	263	12	8	30%	9%	64	-0.8	183/268/311	128	268	12	8	34%	10%	60	-1.0	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
●Ryan McMahon 2015 · A	20	41→51	44→55	43→45	39	200/259/321	121	300	10	6	36%	7%	58	-1.2	234/286/391	157	337	16	7	33%	6%	88	+0.9	247/298/412	164	344	17	8	31%	6%	96	+1.3
✕Ryan Mount 2007 · A	20	42	42→50	49→50	42	207/266/309	103	292	10	8	32%	7%	58	-1.2	223/268/340	117	294	12	11	27%	5%	66	-0.6	251/293/410	160	306	19	8	24%	5%	95	+0.5
✕Max Muncy 2023 · A	20	38→45	48→55	50	41	195/268/337	143	297	17	12	38%	8%	67	-0.5	211/276/338	127	323	13	9	36%	7%	70	-0.3	226/295/388	162	313	20	6	32%	6%	90	+0.5
✕Wendell Rijo 2016 · A	20	42→41	42→55	49→50	40	204/258/310	106	288	8	12	31%	6%	55	-1.4	194/248/276	82	270	6	10	29%	6%	41	-2.3	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
●MJ Melendez 2019 · A	20	36→46	47→60	44→50	36	183/241/318	135	293	14	5	41%	6%	50	-1.7	182/242/347	165	288	20	6	42%	7%	59	-1.1	229/314/436	208	276	26	4	27%	11%	109	+2.3
●James Outman 2019 · A	22	39→49	47→60	53→50	39	201/258/335	134	281	16	11	34%	6%	62	-0.9	198/265/338	140	279	16	13	34%	7%	66	-0.6	232/324/438	205	324	26	14	34%	10%	114	+2.4