Derek Bernard — OGILVIE

Derek BernardSS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION416 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP322

ISO111

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER57

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+1.3	$7M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$13M	+1.2	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$17M		$29M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	16	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	308	378	439	817	131	428	27	9	362	131	+9	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2023	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	311	416	563	979	252	351	18	14	422	172	+15	+2	—	—	+4	2.2
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	296	360	440	800	145	451	32	9	356	127	+6	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	290	252	76	17	1	6	32	70	3	13	6	302	387	448	835	147	395	24	11	371	137	+13	+0	—	—	+6	2.0
2025	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	30	29	10	4	0	0	1	8	0	2	0	345	367	483	849	138	476	27	3	375	140	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	222	49	8	2	2	13	89	3	11	4	221	273	302	575	81	344	37	5	253	57	-12	+1	—	—	+5	-0.7
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	160	37	9	2	5	17	45	1	17	3	231	309	406	715	175	279	25	9	307	94	-1	+2	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	165	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	188	234	279	513	91	357	46	5	217	33	-14	-0	—	—	+4	-1.1
2025	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	290	263	65	13	1	6	21	99	3	13	6	247	310	373	683	125	358	34	7	292	84	-6	+0	—	—	+6	0.1
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	30	29	6	2	0	0	1	12	0	2	0	207	233	276	509	69	368	40	3	236	46	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	222	49	8	2	2	13	89	3	11	4	221	273	302	575	81	356	37	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	308	378	439	817	131	428	27	9	362	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	160	37	9	2	5	17	45	1	17	3	231	309	406	715	175	286	25	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	311	416	563	979	252	351	18	14	422	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	165	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	188	234	279	513	91	361	46	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	—	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	296	360	440	800	145	451	32	9	356	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	293	71	15	1	6	21	110	3	15	6	242	300	362	661	119	365	34	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	320	281	86	21	1	6	33	78	3	15	6	306	385	452	837	146	404	24	10	371	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	223	49	8	2	2	13	89	3	11	4	220	273	300	574	81	344	37	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	160	37	9	2	5	17	45	1	17	3	231	309	406	715	175	279	25	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	163	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	190	234	282	516	92	357	46	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	293	71	15	1	6	21	110	3	15	6	242	300	362	661	119	359	34	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	160	37	9	2	5	17	45	1	17	3	231	309	406	715	175	279	25	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	163	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	190	234	282	516	92	357	46	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	293	71	15	1	6	21	110	3	15	6	242	300	362	661	119	359	34	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	COL	—	416	369	78	14	2	8	40	149	3	10	5	211	294	325	619	114	324	36	10	273	71	-14	+0	+0	+4	+9	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	COL	—	21	17	3	0	0	0	3	10	1	0	1	176	333	176	510		429	48	14	264	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A RAW	COL	—	334	284	77	15	2	8	44	84	2	8	4	271	373	423	795	151	352	25	13	354	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ RAW	COL	—	61	50	11	3	0	1	11	16	0	2	0	220	361	340	701	120	303	26	18	327	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	COL	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		305	30	10	273	71	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	COL	—	426	378	79	14	2	8	41	152	3	10	5	209	291	320	612	111	320	36	10	273	71	-15	+0	-0	+5	+9	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	COL	34%	448	403	87	17	2	10	39	145	3	8	3	216	290	342	632	127	306	32	9	286	80	-11	+0	-1	+5	+10	0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	COL	48%	490	440	98	18	2	14	43	153	4	9	4	223	298	368	666	145	306	31	9	299	89	-7	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	COL	54%	529	473	109	20	2	17	47	160	4	9	4	230	305	389	694	159	307	30	9	310	96	-3	+0	-1	+6	+11	1.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	COL	55%	570	509	120	22	3	20	51	170	5	10	4	236	312	409	720	173	307	30	9	317	101	+0	+0	-1	+6	+12	1.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	COL	56%	581	518	123	22	3	21	53	173	5	10	4	237	314	413	727	176	308	30	9	321	103	+2	+0	-1	+6	+13	2.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	COL	56%	586	522	124	22	3	22	54	174	5	10	4	238	315	418	733	180	308	30	9	323	105	+3	+0	-1	+6	+13	2.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	COL	55%	584	520	124	22	3	22	54	174	5	10	4	238	316	419	735	181	308	30	9	323	105	+3	+0	-1	+6	+13	2.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	COL	55%	578	514	123	22	3	22	54	173	5	10	4	239	318	422	740	183	307	30	9	323	104	+3	+0	-2	+6	+13	2.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	567	503	118	21	2	21	54	171	5	9	4	235	315	410	724	175	307	30	10	321	103	+2	+0	-2	+6	+12	1.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	COL	57%	556	494	115	21	2	20	53	169	4	8	3	233	312	405	717	172	306	30	10	318	101	+1	+0	-3	+6	+12	1.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	COL	60%	541	481	111	20	2	19	51	166	4	7	3	231	310	399	709	168	304	31	9	314	99	-1	+0	-4	+6	+12	1.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	COL	61%	522	464	104	18	2	18	49	162	4	7	3	224	304	388	692	164	300	31	9	309	95	-3	+0	-4	+6	+11	1.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	COL	62%	493	440	97	17	2	16	46	156	4	5	2	220	300	377	677	157	296	32	9	302	91	-5	+0	-5	+5	+11	0.6
2040	34	MLB MLE	COL	58%	446	399	85	14	2	14	41	144	3	4	2	213	291	363	655	150	290	32	9	294	85	-8	+0	-6	+5	+10	0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	COL	34%	154	139	32	6	1	4	13	50	1	3	1	230	301	374	675	144	323	32	8	297	80	-4	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	COL	48%	237	212	51	10	1	8	21	74	2	4	2	241	315	410	725	170	324	31	9	311	89	-3	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	COL	54%	287	257	63	12	2	10	26	87	2	5	2	245	319	424	743	179	325	30	9	323	96	-1	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	COL	55%	316	281	70	13	2	12	29	94	3	6	2	249	326	438	764	189	326	30	9	331	101	+0	+0	-1	+3	+7	1.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	COL	56%	325	289	73	14	2	13	30	97	3	6	2	253	329	450	779	197	326	30	9	335	103	+1	+0	-1	+3	+7	1.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	COL	56%	330	294	75	14	2	14	30	98	3	6	2	255	330	459	789	204	326	30	9	337	105	+2	+0	-1	+4	+7	1.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	COL	55%	323	287	73	13	2	14	30	96	3	6	2	254	331	460	791	206	326	30	9	338	105	+2	+0	-1	+3	+7	1.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	COL	55%	317	281	71	13	2	13	30	95	3	5	2	253	331	452	783	199	326	30	9	337	104	+2	+0	-1	+3	+7	1.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	303	269	68	12	2	13	29	91	2	5	2	253	330	457	787	204	325	30	10	335	103	+1	+0	-1	+3	+7	1.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	COL	57%	317	282	70	13	2	13	30	96	2	5	2	248	325	447	772	199	324	30	9	332	101	+1	+0	-2	+3	+7	0.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	COL	60%	322	287	71	13	2	13	30	99	2	4	2	247	323	443	765	195	321	31	9	328	99	-0	+0	-2	+3	+7	0.8
2038	32	MLB CTX	COL	61%	320	285	67	12	1	12	30	99	2	4	2	235	312	411	723	175	318	31	9	322	95	-2	+0	-3	+3	+7	0.6
2039	33	MLB CTX	COL	62%	308	274	63	11	1	11	29	97	2	3	1	230	308	398	706	168	313	31	9	315	91	-3	+0	-3	+3	+7	0.4
2040	34	MLB CTX	COL	58%	258	230	52	9	1	9	24	83	2	2	1	226	305	391	696	165	307	32	9	306	85	-5	+0	-3	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4117	3667	899	165	23	159	381	1256	32	64	25	245	322	433	754	188	325	31	9	326	94	-10	+3	-19	+44	+89	10.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	142	26	4	25	60	198	5	10	4	245	321	434	755	188	325	30	9	326	94	-2	+0	-3	+7	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	8417	7529	1727	314	41	270	750	2618	68	168	66	229	305	390	694	160	311	31	9	308	94	-22	+4	-33	+80	+163	19.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	133	24	3	21	58	202	5	13	5	229	304	389	693	160	310	31	9	308	94	-2	+0	-3	+7	+14	1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.7	4,438	147	71	229	302	392	+46	-6	14.7	12.2
/162	664	22	11	+6.8	-0.9	2.2	pk7: 10
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derek Bernard (OGILVIE)	20	30→40	40→57	50→47	40	207/279/318	111	305	6	7	33%	9%	71	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	37→47	43→55	45→50	46	184/266/293	108	267	10	7	33%	10%	60	-1.6	197/285/328	131	277	13	9	31%	11%	75	-0.5	225/304/406	181	290	21	8	29%	10%	98	+1.1
✕Bo Naylor 2021 · A	21	40→43	44→55	50	41	201/255/324	123	276	11	7	30%	7%	61	-1.5	198/278/343	145	273	16	13	32%	9%	76	-0.4	213/305/387	174	267	21	12	27%	11%	94	+0.7
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→41	42→50	53→55	44	186/268/288	102	275	10	11	34%	9%	60	-1.6	201/285/320	119	319	11	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	187/257/301	114	274	12	9	35%	7%	58	-1.7	198/280/293	95	349	7	8	41%	9%	65	-1.2	152/277/229	77	359	3	4	50%	12%	49	-0.5
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	39→47	41→55	46→55	42	195/250/286	91	268	9	9	30%	6%	51	-2.2	201/262/331	130	269	14	13	29%	7%	67	-1.1	222/289/387	165	276	18	21	26%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	40→45	47→45	46	182/270/274	91	279	8	6	35%	10%	57	-1.8	191/265/269	78	298	5	6	34%	9%	53	-2.1	177/255/266	89	258	8	2	32%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2022 · A	20	44	40→55	52→50	40	212/257/310	97	289	6	9	28%	5%	59	-1.7	208/259/315	107	277	10	9	27%	6%	61	-1.5	228/287/392	163	266	21	11	23%	7%	87	+0.2
●Jack Suwinski 2019 · A	21	40→43	41→60	47→50	40	195/251/291	96	275	8	6	31%	6%	53	-2.1	193/260/318	125	289	14	6	36%	8%	63	-1.4	211/308/417	206	281	27	10	34%	11%	102	+1.2
✕Izaac Pacheco 2023 · A	20	41→40	42→50	47→45	42	199/260/306	108	293	10	8	34%	8%	60	-1.6	180/243/297	117	298	12	5	41%	7%	52	-2.2	178/255/335	157	290	20	3	43%	9%	64	-0.8
✕Ryan Mount 2007 · A	20	42	42→50	49→50	42	207/266/309	103	292	10	8	32%	7%	63	-1.4	223/268/340	117	293	12	11	27%	5%	70	-0.8	249/293/390	141	308	15	8	23%	5%	90	+0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A	20	44→41	46→55	48→45	41	215/274/356	141	304	13	9	32%	7%	76	-0.4	201/270/333	132	296	13	8	34%	8%	70	-0.8	206/286/370	164	268	21	5	30%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	61	-1.5	204/280/290	86	281	5	16	27%	8%	63	-1.3	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	42→49	47→60	48→50	44	214/273/351	137	280	14	13	28%	7%	75	-0.5	224/270/363	139	299	14	12	28%	6%	76	-0.4	219/286/408	189	272	25	8	29%	8%	91	+0.4
●Oneil Cruz 2019 · A	20	45→53	44→60	47→60	36	217/258/334	117	318	11	8	34%	5%	65	-1.2	234/278/380	146	331	15	14	32%	6%	83	+0.1	243/326/440	197	329	25	34	32%	10%	110	+1.8
✕Jordan Schafer 2007 · A	20	39→49	41→50	50→65	37	194/233/299	104	272	8	12	31%	5%	47	-2.5	233/286/369	136	325	11	13	30%	7%	84	+0.1	238/300/383	144	331	12	14	30%	8%	88	+0.3
●Christopher Morel 2019 · A	20	38→46	41→60	45→50	45	191/254/284	93	244	9	12	26%	7%	53	-2.1	205/250/323	118	288	11	11	31%	5%	60	-1.6	225/303/429	204	283	27	10	30%	9%	102	+1.4
●Ryan McMahon 2015 · A	20	42→52	46→55	43→45	39	208/265/341	134	306	12	6	35%	6%	70	-0.8	232/285/381	149	336	14	7	33%	6%	86	+0.3	230/313/394	163	297	19	6	28%	10%	99	+1.3
✕Derek Norris 2009 · A	20	40→50	42→55	49→50	43	194/269/300	106	295	9	6	35%	9%	63	-1.4	209/306/367	158	286	19	6	31%	11%	93	+0.8	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	43→50	56→55	47	203/279/323	120	288	8	13	30%	9%	71	-0.8	213/282/343	130	314	11	16	33%	9%	76	-0.4	236/319/383	147	308	15	24	26%	11%	96	+0.7
✕Adalberto Mondesi 2015 · A	20	40→50	40→60	54→65	34	197/229/289	92	281	7	14	32%	4%	43	-2.8	210/242/330	120	295	11	25	32%	4%	57	-1.8	254/287/434	180	335	19	58	29%	4%	98	+0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps