Gavin Conticello

RF Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 24 L/R 6'3" / 195 lbs AA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2412ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421AA/A+ARI566.280/.345/.431102065—.221/.268/.338
202522AAARI517.275/.372/.43512480—.226/.304/.334
202623AAA/AAARI492.276/.353/.48219496—.247/.304/.413
2027PROJMLE24MLBARI4.233/.297/.3740083-0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB25MLBARI74.236/.301/.3832187-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB26MLBARI133.237/.302/.3873289-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Whiff%71
Max EV67
K%52
Speed45
Z-Con%40
Chase%28
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.7, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 76%
CompsDrew Robinson (age 24) · Isan Díaz (age 23) · Jake Rogers (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†83
AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .297 / .374
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%7
BABIP299
ISO142
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Arb-1$0.2M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202118 ROKACL D-backs — 5145 13300 2114 21 289373356728 67382 224 338 48 — — — — — —
202219 AVisalia Rawhide — 125105 22321 14385 11 210331305635 95313 3011 297 48 — — — — — —
202219 ROKACL D-backs Red — 146126 31722 15472 31 246336381717 135362 3210 318 30 — — — — — —
202320 A+Hillsboro Hops — 3938 10302 1110 00 263282500782 237320 283 339 63 — — — — — —
202320 AVisalia Rawhide — 427370 8020315 45959 125 216316408724 192247 2211 323 53 — — — — — —
202421 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 2422 5011 270 00 227292455746 227286 298 325 62 — — — — — —
202421 A+Hillsboro Hops — 542489 1383179 461153 204 282347429776 147351 218 344 65 — — — — — —
202522 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 517444 12227412 5911010 45 275372435807 160337 2111 360 80 — — — — — —
202623 AAAReno Aces — 181164 47918 13412 10 287346500846 213336 237 368 99 — — — — — —
202623 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 311274 7414411 34673 32 270357471828 201321 2211 366 94 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202118 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 5146 9200 1164 21 196275239514 43313 312 239 48 — — — — — —
202219 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 125109 20321 10525 11 183282275557 92311 428 239 48 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLEACL D-backs Red — 146131 21511 10682 31 160231237467 76293 477 212 30 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLEHillsboro Hops — 3938 8202 1150 00 211231421652 211301 383 262 63 — — — — — —
202320 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 427383 6415312 321279 125 167248316564 149208 307 247 53 — — — — — —
202421 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 2423 5011 180 00 217250435685 217278 334 260 62 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEHillsboro Hops — 542506 1122358 301613 204 221269334603 113303 306 265 65 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 517461 1042147 4213810 45 226304334638 108300 278 286 80 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLEReno Aces — 181168 44816 9492 10 262307429736 167330 275 315 99 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 311285 681249 23823 32 239302404706 165304 267 307 94 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 5146 9200 1164 21 196275239514 43300 312 239 48 — — — — — —
202118 ROK RAWACL D-backs — 5145 13300 2114 21 289373356728 67382 224 338 48 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLE2 teams — 271240 41732 201207 42 171255250505 79320 447 224 38 — — — — — —
202219 ROK RAW2 teams — 271231 531043 29857 42 229333346680 117340 3111 308 38 — — — — — —
202320 A MLE2 teams — 466421 7318313 331429 125 173248323571 150223 307 248 54 — — — — — —
202320 A RAW2 teams — 466408 9023317 461069 125 221313417730 196253 2310 324 54 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 566528 1172369 321693 204 222270339609 117306 306 265 65 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAW2 teams — 566511 14331810 481223 204 280345431775 151348 228 343 65 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 517461 1042147 4213810 45 226304334638 108303 278 286 80 — — — — — —
202522 AA RAWAmarillo Sod Poodles — 517444 12227412 5911010 45 275372435807 160337 2111 360 80 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 492453 11220515 321315 42 247304413717 166315 277 310 96 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAW2 teams — 492438 12123519 471085 42 276353482835 205327 2210 367 96 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 5146 9200 1164 21 196275239514 43313 312 239 48 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLE2 teams — 271242 41732 201207 42 169255248503 79301 447 224 38 — — — — — —
202320 A MLE2 teams — 466421 7318313 331429 125 173248323571 150216 307 248 54 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 566526 1172369 321693 204 222270340610 118302 306 265 65 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 517460 1042147 4213810 45 226304335639 109300 278 286 80 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 492452 11220515 321315 42 248304414718 166314 277 310 96 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 566526 1172369 321693 204 222270340610 118302 306 265 65 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 517460 1042147 4213810 45 226304335639 109300 278 286 80 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 492452 11220515 321315 42 248304414718 166314 277 310 96 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEARI 2% 380345 791539 27995 42 226291362653 135288 267 292 83 -7 +0 +0 -4 +8 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXARI 2% 44 1000 010 00 233297374671 141299 250 299 83 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEARI 28% 260236 531026 19673 32 229294371665 142289 267 297 87 -4 -0 +0 -3 +6 -0.1
202926 MLB MLEARI 44% 305276 631228 22784 42 230296376672 146289 267 300 89 -4 +0 +0 -3 +7 -0.0
203027 MLB MLEARI 50% 321290 671328 24824 42 230297375671 145288 267 299 89 -4 +0 +0 -3 +7 -0.0
203128 MLB MLEARI 55% 328297 681328 24844 43 229296372667 143287 267 298 88 -5 -0 -0 -4 +7 -0.2
203229 MLB MLEARI 56% 321290 651228 24824 33 227294367661 140286 267 295 86 -5 -1 -1 -3 +7 -0.4
203330 MLB MLEARI 56% 314285 641228 23823 34 224290359649 135284 267 290 83 -6 -1 -2 -3 +7 -0.6
202825 MLB CTXARI 28% 7468 16312 5191 10 236301383683 147300 267 304 87 -1 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.0
202926 MLB CTXARI 44% 133120 28613 10342 21 237302387690 150300 268 307 89 -2 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.0
203027 MLB CTXARI 50% 162147 34714 12412 21 236303386689 150299 257 306 89 -2 +0 +0 -2 +4 -0.0
203128 MLB CTXARI 55% 179162 38824 13462 21 235302383684 147298 267 304 88 -3 +0 -0 -2 +4 -0.1
203229 MLB CTXARI 56% 178161 37814 13462 22 233300378677 144297 267 302 86 -3 -0 -1 -2 +4 -0.2
203330 MLB CTXARI 56% 176159 37814 13462 22 230296370665 139294 267 297 83 -4 -0 -1 -2 +4 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 902817 19040721 6623211 117 233299376674 143297 267 303 77 -14 -1 -1 -10 +20 -0.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 13729515 481678 85 233300375675 143297 267 303 77 -10 -0 -1 -7 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 44224013 8801713597 311124563 6936 219286352638 133290 287 282 77 -33 -2 -2 -22 +45 -1.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650590 12925514 461839 105 219285349634 131290 287 282 77 -10 -1 -1 -7 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 311 PAwOBA .355 → .307 (−48)K% 21.5% → 26.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.54%÷1.000×1.220——26.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.29%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0277.40%
HBP% /PA0.96%—×0.870—×1.0270.86%
Singles /BIP21.74%÷1.000×0.920×1.030×1.02721.15%
Doubles /BIP6.76%÷1.000×0.840×1.030×1.0276.01%
Triples /BIP1.93%÷1.000×0.940×1.030×1.0271.92%
Home runs /BIP5.31%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0274.37%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .355 → .307; ISO .201 → .171; BABIP .321 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAReno Aces · 181 PAwOBA .360 → .315 (−44)K% 22.7% → 27.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.65%÷1.000×1.200——27.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.18%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0505.20%
HBP% /PA1.10%—×0.940—×1.0501.09%
Singles /BIP23.58%÷1.000×0.930×1.050×1.05024.17%
Doubles /BIP7.32%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×1.0506.70%
Triples /BIP0.81%÷1.000×0.970×1.050×1.0500.87%
Home runs /BIP6.50%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0504.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .360 → .315; ISO .213 → .167; BABIP .336 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 517 PAwOBA .353 → .286 (−67)K% 21.3% → 26.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.28%÷0.972×1.220——26.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.22%÷0.994×0.700—×1.0428.23%
HBP% /PA1.93%—×0.870—×1.0421.75%
Singles /BIP23.65%÷1.041×0.920×1.014×1.04222.08%
Doubles /BIP8.08%÷1.119×0.840×1.014×1.0426.41%
Triples /BIP1.20%÷0.985×0.940×1.014×1.0421.21%
Home runs /BIP3.59%÷1.333×0.800—×1.0422.25%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .353 → .286; ISO .160 → .115; BABIP .337 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 542 PAwOBA .336 → .265 (−72)K% 21.2% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.22%÷0.964×1.350——29.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.30%÷1.086×0.710—×1.0275.58%
HBP% /PA0.55%—×0.810—×1.0270.46%
Singles /BIP24.33%÷1.049×0.910×1.007×1.02721.82%
Doubles /BIP8.29%÷1.066×0.830×1.007×1.0276.67%
Triples /BIP1.87%÷1.150×0.820×1.007×1.0271.38%
Home runs /BIP2.41%÷0.875×0.830—×1.0272.34%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 110, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 93, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .336 → .265; ISO .147 → .117; BABIP .351 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 24 PAwOBA .316 → .260 (−56)K% 29.2% → 35.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.17%÷1.018×1.220——34.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷1.026×0.700—×1.0505.97%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.974×0.920—×1.05019.84%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.966×0.840—×1.0500.00%
Triples /BIP6.67%÷0.987×0.940—×1.0506.67%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷1.229×0.800—×1.0504.56%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .316 → .260; ISO .227 → .174; BABIP .286 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 427 PAwOBA .316 → .247 (−70)K% 22.2% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.25%÷1.019×1.360——29.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.54%÷0.987×0.690—×1.0307.59%
HBP% /PA2.11%—×0.780—×1.0301.69%
Singles /BIP15.27%÷1.060×0.920×0.966×1.03013.19%
Doubles /BIP7.27%÷1.029×0.830×0.966×1.0305.84%
Triples /BIP1.09%÷0.900×0.910×0.966×1.0301.10%
Home runs /BIP5.45%÷1.003×0.800—×1.0304.48%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .316 → .247; ISO .192 → .151; BABIP .247 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 39 PAwOBA .329 → .262 (−67)K% 28.2% → 38.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.21%÷0.987×1.350——38.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.56%÷1.038×0.710—×1.0421.83%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.810—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP18.52%÷0.980×0.910—×1.04217.92%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷0.947×0.830—×1.04210.14%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.820—×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP7.41%÷0.952×0.830—×1.0426.73%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .329 → .262; ISO .237 → .186; BABIP .320 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Red · 146 PAwOBA .316 → .212 (−104)K% 32.2% → 46.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.19%÷0.996×1.440——46.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.27%÷0.969×0.620—×1.0086.62%
HBP% /PA1.37%—×0.720—×1.0080.99%
Singles /BIP25.32%÷0.996×0.820×1.021×1.00821.42%
Doubles /BIP8.86%÷0.974×0.720×1.021×1.0086.73%
Triples /BIP2.53%÷0.964×0.720×1.021×1.0081.94%
Home runs /BIP2.53%÷1.119×0.780—×1.0081.78%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 93, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .316 → .212; ISO .135 → .085; BABIP .362 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).