José Mejía
3B Hillsboro Hops| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Orioles B… | 178 | .300/.410/.413 | 2 | 28 | 52 | — | .191/.287/.261 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKBAL | 158 | .274/.423/.411 | 2 | 6 | 74 | — | .216/.327/.328 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/AARI | 484 | .251/.368/.373 | 7 | 18 | 75 | — | .216/.307/.311 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBARI | 1 | .227/.315/.332 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 22 | MLBARI | 152 | .232/.320/.350 | 2 | 3 | 87 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 23 | MLBARI | 239 | .236/.323/.362 | 4 | 5 | 91 | 0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | — | 34 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 346 | 500 | 385 | 885 | 38 | 391 | 9 | 18 | 417 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | — | 178 | 150 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 16 | 4 | 28 | 6 | 300 | 410 | 413 | 823 | 113 | 326 | 9 | 13 | 376 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 158 | 124 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 274 | 423 | 411 | 834 | 137 | 296 | 10 | 16 | 378 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 348 | 292 | 68 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 63 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 233 | 336 | 332 | 668 | 99 | 278 | 18 | 13 | 303 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 136 | 107 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 299 | 449 | 486 | 935 | 187 | 349 | 15 | 20 | 418 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 34 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 250 | 382 | 286 | 668 | 36 | 252 | 12 | 12 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 178 | 157 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 4 | 28 | 6 | 191 | 287 | 261 | 548 | 70 | 208 | 11 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 158 | 134 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 216 | 327 | 328 | 655 | 112 | 229 | 15 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 348 | 307 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 85 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 202 | 284 | 280 | 564 | 78 | 256 | 24 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 136 | 115 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 252 | 368 | 391 | 759 | 139 | 319 | 21 | 14 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 34 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 250 | 382 | 286 | 668 | 36 | 292 | 12 | 12 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Black | — | 34 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 346 | 500 | 385 | 885 | 38 | 391 | 9 | 18 | 417 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 178 | 157 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 4 | 28 | 6 | 191 | 287 | 261 | 548 | 70 | 213 | 11 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Black | — | 178 | 150 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 16 | 4 | 28 | 6 | 300 | 410 | 413 | 823 | 113 | 326 | 9 | 13 | 376 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 158 | 134 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 216 | 327 | 328 | 655 | 112 | 245 | 15 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 158 | 124 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 274 | 423 | 411 | 834 | 137 | 296 | 10 | 16 | 378 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 422 | 92 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 113 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 218 | 310 | 320 | 630 | 102 | 279 | 23 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 484 | 399 | 100 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 71 | 84 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 251 | 368 | 373 | 742 | 123 | 297 | 17 | 15 | 336 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 34 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 250 | 382 | 286 | 668 | 36 | 252 | 12 | 12 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 178 | 155 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 4 | 28 | 6 | 194 | 287 | 265 | 551 | 71 | 208 | 11 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 158 | 135 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 215 | 327 | 326 | 653 | 111 | 229 | 15 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 425 | 92 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 113 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 216 | 310 | 318 | 627 | 101 | 274 | 23 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 178 | 155 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 4 | 28 | 6 | 194 | 287 | 265 | 551 | 71 | 208 | 11 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 158 | 135 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 215 | 327 | 326 | 653 | 111 | 229 | 15 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 425 | 92 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 113 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 216 | 310 | 318 | 627 | 101 | 274 | 23 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | ARI | 0% | 553 | 485 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 57 | 124 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 219 | 308 | 318 | 627 | 99 | 278 | 22 | 10 | 287 | 80 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | ARI | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 315 | 332 | 647 | 105 | 288 | 0 | 0 | 295 | 80 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | ARI | 35% | 441 | 388 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 97 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 225 | 314 | 337 | 651 | 112 | 279 | 22 | 10 | 296 | 87 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | ARI | 49% | 493 | 434 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 51 | 107 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 229 | 317 | 350 | 667 | 121 | 281 | 22 | 10 | 302 | 91 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | ARI | 53% | 527 | 463 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 113 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 232 | 319 | 358 | 677 | 126 | 282 | 21 | 10 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | ARI | 55% | 546 | 479 | 112 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 117 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 233 | 320 | 362 | 682 | 129 | 283 | 21 | 10 | 308 | 94 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | ARI | 56% | 556 | 488 | 115 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 57 | 120 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 233 | 320 | 364 | 684 | 131 | 283 | 22 | 10 | 308 | 95 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | ARI | 55% | 555 | 487 | 113 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 57 | 120 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 232 | 319 | 361 | 680 | 129 | 282 | 22 | 10 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 55% | 548 | 482 | 111 | 22 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 120 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 230 | 317 | 356 | 673 | 126 | 281 | 22 | 10 | 304 | 92 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 0.9 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 53% | 536 | 472 | 108 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 119 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 228 | 314 | 350 | 664 | 122 | 280 | 22 | 10 | 301 | 90 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | ARI | 53% | 523 | 460 | 104 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 53 | 118 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 224 | 310 | 342 | 652 | 117 | 278 | 23 | 10 | 296 | 86 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | ARI | 56% | 506 | 447 | 99 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 50 | 116 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 220 | 305 | 332 | 637 | 111 | 275 | 23 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -11 | -1 | -3 | +2 | +11 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | ARI | 35% | 152 | 133 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 320 | 350 | 670 | 118 | 290 | 22 | 11 | 304 | 87 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | ARI | 49% | 239 | 210 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 52 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 236 | 323 | 362 | 685 | 126 | 291 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 91 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | ARI | 53% | 278 | 244 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 60 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 238 | 325 | 370 | 695 | 131 | 293 | 22 | 10 | 313 | 93 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | ARI | 55% | 299 | 263 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 64 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 240 | 326 | 374 | 700 | 134 | 293 | 21 | 10 | 315 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | ARI | 56% | 310 | 272 | 65 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 67 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 240 | 326 | 375 | 701 | 135 | 293 | 22 | 10 | 315 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | ARI | 55% | 305 | 268 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 66 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 239 | 325 | 373 | 697 | 134 | 293 | 22 | 10 | 314 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 55% | 300 | 263 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 66 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 237 | 323 | 368 | 690 | 131 | 291 | 22 | 10 | 311 | 92 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 53% | 286 | 252 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 63 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 320 | 361 | 681 | 127 | 290 | 22 | 10 | 307 | 90 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | ARI | 53% | 275 | 242 | 56 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 62 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 231 | 316 | 353 | 669 | 122 | 288 | 23 | 10 | 302 | 86 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | ARI | 56% | 286 | 252 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 226 | 311 | 342 | 653 | 116 | 284 | 23 | 10 | 296 | 82 | -6 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2730 | 2399 | 567 | 125 | 18 | 50 | 281 | 598 | 28 | 48 | 18 | 236 | 323 | 366 | 689 | 130 | 293 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 87 | -30 | +2 | -4 | +10 | +59 | 3.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 135 | 30 | 4 | 12 | 67 | 142 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 236 | 324 | 366 | 690 | 130 | 293 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 87 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6295 | 5525 | 1253 | 255 | 33 | 112 | 643 | 1355 | 71 | 156 | 50 | 227 | 315 | 346 | 661 | 119 | 279 | 22 | 10 | 297 | 87 | -64 | +7 | -7 | +19 | +118 | 7.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 129 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 66 | 140 | 7 | 16 | 5 | 226 | 314 | 346 | 659 | 119 | 277 | 22 | 10 | 297 | 87 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 348 PAwOBA .300 → .256 (−44)K% 18.1% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 24.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 9.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | ×1.027 | 19.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.027 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×1.027 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 1.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .300 → .256; ISO .099 → .085; BABIP .278 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 136 PAwOBA .408 → .341 (−68)K% 15.4% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 13.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 21.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 2.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .408 → .341; ISO .187 → .160; BABIP .349 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 158 PAwOBA .374 → .277 (−97)K% 10.1% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.13% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 14.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.46% | ÷1.020 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.80% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | ×0.996 | ×0.995 | 16.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.033 | ×0.720 | ×0.996 | ×0.995 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.996 | ×0.995 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .374 → .277; ISO .137 → .104; BABIP .296 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 178 PAwOBA .367 → .245 (−122)K% 9.0% → 11.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.99% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.48% | ÷0.964 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.25% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.63% | ÷1.067 | ×0.680 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 16.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷0.988 | ×0.600 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.988 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.71% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 113, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .367 → .245; ISO .113 → .066; BABIP .326 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 34 PAwOBA .408 → .287 (−121)K% 8.8% → 10.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 10.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.964 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 4.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.78% | ÷1.044 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.008 | 22.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.096 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 2.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.875 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 111, K 108, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .408 → .287; ISO .038 → .023; BABIP .391 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).