Miguel Villarroel
SS Wilmington Blue Rocks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 487 | .297/.336/.380 | 2 | 40 | 57 | — | .249/.280/.319 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+STL | 272 | .254/.309/.331 | 2 | 22 | 40 | — | .208/.249/.271 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+2 orgs | 189 | .280/.360/.429 | 4 | 9 | 75 | — | .234/.291/.353 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBWSH | 1 | .222/.271/.312 | 0 | 0 | 65 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBWSH | 58 | .224/.274/.322 | 1 | 2 | 69 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBWSH | 96 | .224/.276/.324 | 1 | 3 | 69 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 205 | 182 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 302 | 377 | 401 | 779 | 99 | 331 | 10 | 9 | 352 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 149 | 130 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 323 | 405 | 392 | 798 | 69 | 383 | 15 | 11 | 363 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 67 | 57 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 351 | 439 | 509 | 948 | 158 | 365 | 7 | 10 | 416 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 280 | 260 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 56 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 231 | 275 | 331 | 606 | 100 | 275 | 20 | 4 | 270 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 181 | 169 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 47 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 254 | 288 | 325 | 614 | 71 | 347 | 26 | 3 | 272 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 285 | 267 | 89 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 333 | 373 | 427 | 800 | 94 | 425 | 21 | 5 | 357 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 21 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 211 | 449 | 53 | 200 | 19 | 10 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 272 | 248 | 63 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 66 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 254 | 309 | 331 | 639 | 77 | 335 | 24 | 7 | 287 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 35 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 343 | 300 | 643 | 67 | 412 | 37 | 11 | 303 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 55 | 52 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 288 | 327 | 404 | 731 | 115 | 368 | 24 | 5 | 326 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 99 | 86 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 291 | 384 | 488 | 872 | 198 | 367 | 23 | 11 | 386 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 205 | 187 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 193 | 260 | 246 | 506 | 53 | 216 | 13 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 149 | 135 | 40 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 296 | 358 | 356 | 714 | 59 | 371 | 20 | 8 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 67 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 267 | 333 | 383 | 717 | 117 | 280 | 10 | 6 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 280 | 264 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 74 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 205 | 239 | 288 | 527 | 83 | 258 | 26 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 181 | 170 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 59 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 229 | 260 | 294 | 554 | 65 | 324 | 33 | 2 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 285 | 272 | 71 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 84 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 261 | 292 | 335 | 627 | 74 | 371 | 29 | 4 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 272 | 255 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 208 | 249 | 271 | 520 | 63 | 300 | 32 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 35 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 286 | 258 | 544 | 65 | 383 | 46 | 9 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 55 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 264 | 291 | 377 | 668 | 113 | 351 | 29 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 99 | 91 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 231 | 293 | 374 | 667 | 143 | 319 | 30 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 205 | 187 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 193 | 260 | 246 | 506 | 53 | 217 | 13 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 205 | 182 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 302 | 377 | 401 | 779 | 99 | 331 | 10 | 9 | 352 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 195 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 292 | 355 | 374 | 729 | 82 | 350 | 17 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 216 | 187 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 332 | 416 | 428 | 844 | 96 | 377 | 12 | 11 | 379 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 280 | 264 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 74 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 205 | 239 | 288 | 527 | 83 | 267 | 26 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 280 | 260 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 56 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 231 | 275 | 331 | 606 | 100 | 275 | 20 | 4 | 270 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 487 | 463 | 114 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 150 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 246 | 276 | 311 | 587 | 65 | 359 | 31 | 3 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 487 | 455 | 135 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 111 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 297 | 336 | 380 | 716 | 84 | 388 | 23 | 5 | 319 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 272 | 255 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 208 | 249 | 271 | 520 | 63 | 305 | 32 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 272 | 248 | 63 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 66 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 254 | 309 | 331 | 639 | 77 | 335 | 24 | 7 | 287 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 189 | 175 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 229 | 286 | 343 | 629 | 114 | 336 | 33 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 189 | 168 | 47 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 49 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 280 | 360 | 429 | 788 | 149 | 374 | 26 | 10 | 353 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 205 | 186 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 260 | 247 | 507 | 54 | 216 | 13 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 195 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 292 | 355 | 374 | 729 | 82 | 343 | 17 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 280 | 266 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 74 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 203 | 239 | 286 | 525 | 83 | 258 | 26 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 487 | 465 | 114 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 150 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 245 | 276 | 310 | 586 | 65 | 353 | 31 | 3 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 272 | 256 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 207 | 249 | 270 | 519 | 62 | 300 | 32 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 189 | 173 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 231 | 286 | 347 | 633 | 116 | 340 | 33 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 487 | 465 | 114 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 150 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 245 | 276 | 310 | 586 | 65 | 353 | 31 | 3 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 272 | 256 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 207 | 249 | 270 | 519 | 62 | 300 | 32 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 189 | 173 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 231 | 286 | 347 | 633 | 116 | 340 | 33 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 239 | 223 | 50 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 71 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 223 | 271 | 316 | 587 | 93 | 309 | 30 | 5 | 264 | 65 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 271 | 312 | 583 | 91 | 308 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 65 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 30% | 192 | 178 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 56 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 225 | 275 | 325 | 600 | 100 | 308 | 29 | 5 | 269 | 69 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 42% | 230 | 213 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 67 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 225 | 276 | 327 | 603 | 102 | 307 | 29 | 6 | 271 | 69 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 48% | 254 | 235 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 73 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 224 | 277 | 327 | 603 | 102 | 306 | 29 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 49% | 262 | 243 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 75 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 223 | 276 | 325 | 601 | 102 | 304 | 29 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 30% | 58 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 274 | 322 | 596 | 98 | 307 | 29 | 5 | 268 | 69 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 42% | 96 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 276 | 324 | 599 | 100 | 306 | 29 | 5 | 269 | 69 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 48% | 121 | 112 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 100 | 304 | 29 | 6 | 270 | 70 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 49% | 129 | 119 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 275 | 322 | 597 | 100 | 303 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 69 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 404 | 375 | 84 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 117 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 224 | 276 | 325 | 601 | 101 | 307 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 61 | -15 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 136 | 23 | 5 | 10 | 37 | 188 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 226 | 277 | 330 | 607 | 104 | 309 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 61 | -24 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2715 | 2527 | 577 | 90 | 20 | 29 | 135 | 746 | 29 | 134 | 28 | 228 | 275 | 314 | 590 | 86 | 310 | 27 | 5 | 259 | 61 | -40 | +2 | -2 | +11 | +23 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 139 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 179 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 230 | 276 | 317 | 593 | 88 | 313 | 28 | 5 | 259 | 61 | -24 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 99 PAwOBA .376 → .295 (−81)K% 23.2% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 22.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 2.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 4.10% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .376 → .295; ISO .198 → .162; BABIP .367 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 55 PAwOBA .317 → .274 (−43)K% 23.6% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 29.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 2.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 2.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .317 → .274; ISO .115 → .093; BABIP .368 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 35 PAwOBA .296 → .243 (−54)K% 37.1% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 28.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 10.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .296 → .243; ISO .067 → .052; BABIP .412 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 272 PAwOBA .282 → .228 (−54)K% 24.3% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.26% | ÷0.951 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.99% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.47% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×0.988 | 25.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.95% | ÷1.083 | ×0.810 | ×1.024 | ×0.988 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷0.926 | ×0.850 | ×1.024 | ×0.988 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.10% | ÷0.857 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.01% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .282 → .228; ISO .077 → .060; BABIP .335 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 285 PAwOBA .348 → .272 (−76)K% 21.1% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.91% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 3.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.82% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×0.990 | 30.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.76% | ÷1.153 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×0.990 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.93% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | ×1.024 | ×0.990 | 1.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .348 → .272; ISO .094 → .070; BABIP .425 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 181 PAwOBA .264 → .227 (−37)K% 26.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.97% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.76% | ÷0.930 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 2.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.87% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 26.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.66% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .264 → .227; ISO .071 → .055; BABIP .347 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 280 PAwOBA .266 → .226 (−40)K% 20.0% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.022 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.29% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | — | 3.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.08% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | — | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.914 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | — | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.124 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | — | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.45% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 83, 3B 125, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .266 → .226; ISO .100 → .079; BABIP .275 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 149 PAwOBA .354 → .315 (−39)K% 14.8% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.77% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.41% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.41% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 31.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.912 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.82% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .354 → .315; ISO .069 → .061; BABIP .383 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .