Eliezer Mesa
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 24 | INTLEstrellas de … | 18 | .118/.167/.118 | 0 | 2 | -20 | — | |
| 2014 | 25 | AAADelfines de C… | 201 | .308/.347/.405 | 2 | 4 | 90 | — | .298/.327/.372 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAAPiratas de Ca… | 71 | .206/.229/.279 | 1 | 2 | 20 | — | .203/.214/.275 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 19 | ROK | Casper Ghosts | — | 160 | 146 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 226 | 271 | 322 | 593 | 96 | 279 | 22 | 4 | 260 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK | Casper Ghosts | — | 246 | 231 | 73 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 316 | 350 | 420 | 770 | 104 | 373 | 15 | 4 | 339 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 529 | 483 | 146 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 39 | 91 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 302 | 357 | 420 | 777 | 118 | 369 | 17 | 7 | 344 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 187 | 164 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 256 | 322 | 311 | 633 | 55 | 307 | 15 | 8 | 281 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 60 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 193 | 268 | 461 | 89 | 244 | 28 | 0 | 193 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 46 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 130 | 130 | 174 | 304 | 43 | 176 | 26 | 0 | 133 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A | Burlington Bees | — | 281 | 262 | 77 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 294 | 330 | 412 | 742 | 118 | 343 | 17 | 4 | 325 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 74 | 68 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 309 | 338 | 397 | 735 | 88 | 412 | 23 | 4 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 118 | 284 | 167 | 28 | 6 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 201 | 185 | 57 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 308 | 347 | 405 | 752 | 97 | 369 | 17 | 5 | 329 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Piratas de Campeche | — | 71 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 229 | 279 | 508 | 74 | 224 | 14 | 3 | 225 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 160 | 148 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 162 | 200 | 216 | 416 | 54 | 224 | 32 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 246 | 235 | 56 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 238 | 263 | 311 | 574 | 72 | 298 | 22 | 2 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 529 | 500 | 126 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 22 | 127 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 252 | 286 | 346 | 632 | 94 | 331 | 24 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 187 | 169 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 231 | 278 | 278 | 556 | 47 | 277 | 21 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 60 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 175 | 250 | 425 | 89 | 201 | 37 | 0 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 46 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 109 | 109 | 152 | 261 | 43 | 159 | 35 | 0 | 101 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Burlington Bees | — | 281 | 265 | 66 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 70 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 249 | 279 | 347 | 626 | 98 | 312 | 25 | 3 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 201 | 188 | 56 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 298 | 327 | 372 | 699 | 74 | 361 | 20 | 3 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 71 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 214 | 275 | 490 | 72 | 215 | 17 | 1 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 160 | 148 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 162 | 200 | 216 | 416 | 54 | 235 | 32 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK RAW | Casper Ghosts | — | 160 | 146 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 226 | 271 | 322 | 593 | 96 | 279 | 22 | 4 | 260 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 246 | 235 | 56 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 238 | 263 | 311 | 574 | 72 | 306 | 22 | 2 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK RAW | Casper Ghosts | — | 246 | 231 | 73 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 316 | 350 | 420 | 770 | 104 | 373 | 15 | 4 | 339 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 529 | 500 | 126 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 22 | 127 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 252 | 286 | 346 | 632 | 94 | 336 | 24 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 529 | 483 | 146 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 39 | 91 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 302 | 357 | 420 | 777 | 118 | 369 | 17 | 7 | 344 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 187 | 169 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 231 | 278 | 278 | 556 | 47 | 298 | 21 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 187 | 164 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 256 | 322 | 311 | 633 | 55 | 307 | 15 | 8 | 281 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 461 | 437 | 93 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 128 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 213 | 236 | 291 | 526 | 78 | 289 | 28 | 2 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A RAW | 4 teams | — | 461 | 432 | 114 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 94 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 264 | 293 | 366 | 659 | 102 | 324 | 20 | 3 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL MLE | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 118 | 284 | 167 | 28 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL RAW | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 118 | 284 | 167 | 28 | 6 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 201 | 188 | 56 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 298 | 327 | 372 | 699 | 74 | 374 | 20 | 3 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA RAW | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 201 | 185 | 57 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 308 | 347 | 405 | 752 | 97 | 369 | 17 | 5 | 329 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 71 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 214 | 275 | 490 | 72 | 228 | 17 | 1 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | Piratas de Campeche | — | 71 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 229 | 279 | 508 | 74 | 224 | 14 | 3 | 225 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 160 | 152 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 158 | 200 | 211 | 411 | 53 | 224 | 32 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 246 | 236 | 56 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 237 | 263 | 309 | 573 | 72 | 298 | 22 | 2 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 529 | 500 | 126 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 22 | 127 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 252 | 286 | 346 | 632 | 94 | 331 | 24 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 187 | 174 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 224 | 278 | 270 | 548 | 46 | 277 | 21 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 461 | 445 | 93 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 128 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 209 | 236 | 285 | 521 | 76 | 277 | 28 | 2 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 201 | 191 | 56 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 293 | 327 | 366 | 693 | 73 | 361 | 20 | 3 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 71 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 214 | 271 | 486 | 71 | 215 | 17 | 1 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1873 | 1763 | 410 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 60 | 459 | 13 | 91 | 29 | 233 | 263 | 308 | 571 | 75 | 307 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 52 | -107 | +7 | +0 | +7 | +41 | -5.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 612 | 142 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 159 | 5 | 32 | 10 | 232 | 264 | 309 | 573 | 77 | 306 | 24 | 3 | 245 | 52 | -37 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAPiratas de Campeche · 71 PAwOBA .222 → .198 (−24)K% 14.1% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.08% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.82% | ÷1.132 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 1.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.97% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 18.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.981 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 3.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.13% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 105, BB 126 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .222 → .198; ISO .074 → .055; BABIP .224 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 201 PAwOBA .321 → .301 (−20)K% 17.4% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.41% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.98% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.67% | ÷0.978 | ×0.930 | ×1.040 | ×1.018 | 30.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.040 | ×1.018 | 3.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×1.018 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.88% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .321 → .301; ISO .097 → .078; BABIP .369 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ABurlington Bees · 281 PAwOBA .319 → .265 (−54)K% 17.1% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.08% | ÷0.929 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.91% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 2.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.10% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.980 | 25.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.14% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×0.980 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.87% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×1.033 | ×0.980 | 1.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.87% | ÷1.014 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 94, K 86, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .319 → .265; ISO .118 → .094; BABIP .343 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAMidland RockHounds · 60 PAwOBA .194 → .154 (−40)K% 28.3% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.33% | ÷0.956 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 15.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.029 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 2.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 110, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .194 → .154; ISO .089 → .067; BABIP .244 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Stockton Ports · 46 PAwOBA .130 → .101 (−28)K% 26.1% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.009 | ×1.340 | — | — | 34.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.71% | ÷0.959 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 13.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.023 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.988 | 2.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 92, 2B 90, 3B 105, K 102, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .130 → .101; ISO .043 → .028; BABIP .176 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Modesto Nuts · 187 PAwOBA .276 → .236 (−39)K% 15.0% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.97% | ÷0.975 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.02% | ÷1.063 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.910 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 23.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.020 | ×0.820 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.800 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 107, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .276 → .236; ISO .055 → .045; BABIP .307 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAsheville Tourists · 529 PAwOBA .335 → .273 (−62)K% 17.2% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.20% | ÷0.959 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.37% | ÷1.179 | ×0.660 | — | — | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.02% | ÷1.044 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | — | 23.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.42% | ÷1.054 | ×0.820 | ×1.034 | — | 6.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.30% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.034 | — | 2.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.089 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.38% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 92, BB 136 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .335 → .273; ISO .118 → .101; BABIP .369 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 ROKCasper Ghosts · 246 PAwOBA .331 → .245 (−86)K% 15.4% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.985 | 2.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.017 | ×0.985 | 24.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.017 | ×0.985 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.017 | ×0.985 | 2.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.985 | 0.38% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .331 → .245; ISO .104 → .072; BABIP .373 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .