Tyler McDonough
2B Portland Sea Dogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AABOS | 455 | .241/.313/.356 | 6 | 18 | 52 | — | .212/.263/.304 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAABOS | 299 | .254/.329/.369 | 5 | 6 | 59 | — | .214/.272/.308 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AABOS | 451 | .249/.371/.468 | 20 | 27 | 83 | — | .205/.298/.367 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBBOS | 3 | .225/.298/.357 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBBOS | 48 | .224/.297/.354 | 1 | 1 | 80 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 126 | 108 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 296 | 397 | 491 | 888 | 194 | 358 | 19 | 13 | 392 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 517 | 457 | 105 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 162 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 230 | 310 | 357 | 667 | 127 | 334 | 31 | 9 | 300 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 365 | 316 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 97 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 250 | 326 | 370 | 696 | 120 | 338 | 27 | 10 | 308 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 71 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 254 | 371 | 424 | 795 | 169 | 317 | 24 | 15 | 354 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 130 | 114 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 315 | 307 | 622 | 88 | 324 | 30 | 12 | 289 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 325 | 296 | 74 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 92 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 250 | 313 | 375 | 688 | 125 | 345 | 28 | 8 | 307 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 299 | 268 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 73 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 254 | 329 | 369 | 698 | 116 | 330 | 24 | 9 | 316 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 145 | 122 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 33 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 287 | 392 | 541 | 933 | 254 | 329 | 23 | 12 | 403 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 306 | 252 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 87 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 230 | 362 | 433 | 794 | 202 | 301 | 28 | 14 | 355 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 126 | 114 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 317 | 421 | 739 | 175 | 316 | 27 | 9 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 517 | 479 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 201 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 184 | 238 | 284 | 522 | 100 | 288 | 39 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 365 | 333 | 75 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 118 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 225 | 281 | 318 | 600 | 93 | 321 | 32 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 130 | 119 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 269 | 286 | 555 | 84 | 312 | 36 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 325 | 305 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 109 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 216 | 260 | 311 | 572 | 95 | 317 | 34 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 299 | 276 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 86 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 214 | 272 | 308 | 580 | 94 | 295 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 145 | 128 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 234 | 315 | 422 | 737 | 188 | 281 | 28 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 306 | 267 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 106 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 191 | 289 | 341 | 630 | 150 | 275 | 35 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 126 | 114 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 317 | 421 | 739 | 175 | 325 | 27 | 9 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 126 | 108 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 296 | 397 | 491 | 888 | 194 | 358 | 19 | 13 | 392 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 517 | 479 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 201 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 184 | 238 | 284 | 522 | 100 | 295 | 39 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 517 | 457 | 105 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 162 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 230 | 310 | 357 | 667 | 127 | 334 | 31 | 9 | 300 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 436 | 398 | 90 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 141 | 3 | 29 | 11 | 226 | 282 | 324 | 606 | 98 | 329 | 32 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 436 | 375 | 94 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 114 | 3 | 29 | 11 | 251 | 333 | 379 | 712 | 128 | 335 | 26 | 11 | 316 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 424 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 155 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 210 | 260 | 295 | 555 | 85 | 320 | 34 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 455 | 410 | 99 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 131 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 241 | 313 | 356 | 670 | 115 | 339 | 29 | 9 | 302 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 299 | 276 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 86 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 214 | 272 | 308 | 580 | 94 | 294 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 299 | 268 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 73 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 254 | 329 | 369 | 698 | 116 | 330 | 24 | 9 | 316 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 394 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 146 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 208 | 302 | 371 | 673 | 162 | 286 | 32 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 451 | 374 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 20 | 62 | 120 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 249 | 371 | 468 | 839 | 219 | 311 | 27 | 14 | 371 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 126 | 113 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 317 | 425 | 742 | 177 | 316 | 27 | 9 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 517 | 478 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 201 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 184 | 238 | 285 | 522 | 100 | 288 | 39 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 436 | 402 | 90 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 141 | 3 | 29 | 11 | 224 | 282 | 321 | 603 | 97 | 321 | 32 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 423 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 155 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 210 | 260 | 296 | 556 | 85 | 316 | 34 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 299 | 275 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 86 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 215 | 272 | 309 | 581 | 95 | 295 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 395 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 146 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 208 | 302 | 370 | 672 | 162 | 277 | 32 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 423 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 155 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 210 | 260 | 296 | 556 | 85 | 316 | 34 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 299 | 275 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 86 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 215 | 272 | 309 | 581 | 95 | 295 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 395 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 146 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 208 | 302 | 370 | 672 | 162 | 277 | 32 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 2% | 380 | 341 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 116 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 219 | 293 | 349 | 642 | 130 | 300 | 31 | 8 | 289 | 82 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 298 | 357 | 656 | 132 | 310 | 33 | 0 | 295 | 82 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 23% | 212 | 190 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 218 | 291 | 346 | 637 | 128 | 298 | 30 | 8 | 287 | 80 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 23% | 48 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 354 | 651 | 130 | 308 | 31 | 8 | 293 | 80 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 292 | 326 | 617 | 116 | 296 | 31 | 8 | 293 | 64 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 122 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 203 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 210 | 292 | 328 | 620 | 119 | 296 | 31 | 8 | 293 | 64 | -15 | +3 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2651 | 2415 | 509 | 92 | 21 | 48 | 184 | 874 | 31 | 115 | 33 | 211 | 275 | 326 | 601 | 115 | 306 | 33 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 125 | 23 | 5 | 12 | 45 | 214 | 8 | 28 | 8 | 211 | 276 | 328 | 604 | 117 | 306 | 33 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -15 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 306 PAwOBA .345 → .280 (−65)K% 28.4% → 34.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 9.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 19.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 5.55% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .345 → .280; ISO .202 → .160; BABIP .301 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 145 PAwOBA .395 → .314 (−81)K% 22.8% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 20.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 6.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.31% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .395 → .314; ISO .254 → .187; BABIP .329 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 299 PAwOBA .309 → .255 (−54)K% 24.4% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.41% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.042 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.13% | ÷1.060 | ×0.930 | ×1.013 | ×1.018 | 22.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×1.018 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×1.018 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.86% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .309 → .255; ISO .116 → .092; BABIP .330 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 325 PAwOBA .299 → .248 (−51)K% 28.3% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.31% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.02% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 23.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 6.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.45% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .299 → .248; ISO .125 → .094; BABIP .345 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 130 PAwOBA .282 → .239 (−43)K% 30.0% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 23.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.97% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .282 → .239; ISO .088 → .074; BABIP .324 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 365 PAwOBA .304 → .266 (−38)K% 26.6% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.32% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.11% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 25.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.83% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.28% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .304 → .266; ISO .120 → .099; BABIP .338 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 517 PAwOBA .292 → .227 (−65)K% 31.3% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.33% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.39% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 20.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 6.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.05% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.69% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .292 → .227; ISO .127 → .102; BABIP .334 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASalem Red Sox · 126 PAwOBA .383 → .308 (−74)K% 19.0% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.49% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | — | 22.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | — | 3.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.944 | ×0.910 | ×0.959 | — | 4.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.858 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.33% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 89, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .383 → .308; ISO .194 → .168; BABIP .358 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .