Tyler McDonough — OGILVIE

Tyler McDonough2B Portland Sea Dogs

Age 27 S/R 5'8" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .262 / .300

PA250

HR3

SB11

K%32

BB%6

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

40→40

SPD

50→50

EYE

44↗45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$-5M		$-14M	-$9M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Salem Red Sox	126	114	28	3	4	3	11	33	1	3	1	.246	.317	.421	.739	.175	.321	26	9	.315	99	-0	+0	+0	+0	+4	0.4
2022	23	A+	Greenville Drive	517	479	89	18	3	8	28	199	6	21	5	.186	.240	.286	.526	.100	.297	38	5	.228	33	-39	+2	+0	+2	+15	-2.1
2023	24	AA	2 teams	436	398	87	14	5	5	28	148	3	29	11	.219	.275	.317	.592	.098	.327	34	6	.261	58	-21	+1	+0	+2	+12	-0.6
2024	25	AA	2 teams	455	424	87	18	2	5	28	161	1	18	6	.205	.256	.292	.549	.087	.317	35	6	.243	44	-29	+1	+0	+2	+13	-1.3
2025	26	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	299	277	59	10	2	4	17	87	4	6	5	.213	.268	.307	.575	.094	.294	29	6	.256	54	-16	-1	+0	+1	+8	-0.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	66	55	12	2	0	2	8	21	2	5	0	.218	.338	.364	.702	.145	.312	32	12	.297	85	-1	+1	+0	+0	+2	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	BOS	184	167	35	6	1	3	13	59	2	6	2	.210	.275	.311	.586	.102	.300	32	7	.265	61	-8	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.2
TOT	27	MLB	BOS	250	222	47	8	1	5	21	80	4	11	2	.212	.291	.324	.616	.113	.304	32	8	.273	67	-9	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB 9%	BOS	315	283	60	11	2	5	26	87	3	10	3	.212	.285	.318	.603	.106	.283	28	8	.275	69	-11	+1	-1	+1	+9	-0.1
2028	29	MLB 19%	BOS	338	303	65	12	2	6	28	93	4	10	3	.215	.290	.327	.616	.112	.283	28	8	.276	70	-12	+1	-1	+1	+10	-0.1
2029	30	MLB 29%	BOS	352	316	67	12	2	6	29	97	4	10	2	.212	.287	.320	.606	.108	.282	28	8	.276	69	-12	+1	-2	+1	+10	-0.2
2030	31	MLB 40%	BOS	346	310	66	12	2	6	29	96	4	8	2	.213	.289	.323	.611	.110	.281	28	8	.273	67	-13	+1	-3	+1	+10	-0.4
2031	32	MLB 49%	BOS	333	299	62	11	2	5	28	94	3	6	1	.207	.282	.308	.590	.100	.280	28	8	.269	64	-14	+1	-4	+1	+9	-0.6
2032	33	MLB 57%	BOS	307	276	56	10	1	5	25	89	3	5	1	.203	.276	.301	.577	.098	.278	29	8	.263	60	-14	+1	-4	+1	+9	-0.8
2033	34	MLB 75%	BOS	266	239	48	9	1	4	22	79	3	3	0	.201	.277	.297	.574	.096	.276	30	8	.257	55	-14	+1	-5	+1	+8	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4274	3885	809	146	29	65	312	1322	41	135	42	.208	.274	.311	.585	.103	.295	31	7	.261	58	-202	+10	-20	+15	+121	-7.6
/ 162G	—			650	591	123	22	4	10	47	201	6	21	6	.208	.273	.310	.583	.102	.295	31	7	.261	58	-31	+2	-3	+2	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Salem Red Sox	126	108	32	4	4	3	17	24	1	3	1	.296	.397	.491	.888	.194	.358	19	13	.392	158	+8	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2022	23	A+	Greenville Drive	517	457	105	23	4	9	48	162	6	21	5	.230	.310	.357	.667	.127	.334	31	9	.300	88	-7	+2	—	—	+15	1.0
2023	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	365	316	79	15	4	5	35	97	3	24	7	.250	.326	.370	.696	.120	.338	27	10	.308	94	-2	+2	—	—	+10	1.0
2023	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	71	59	15	4	0	2	11	17	0	5	4	.254	.371	.424	.795	.169	.317	24	15	.354	129	+2	-1	—	—	+2	0.4
2024	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	130	114	25	5	1	1	15	39	1	3	1	.219	.315	.307	.622	.088	.324	30	12	.289	80	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2024	25	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	325	296	74	18	2	5	27	92	0	15	5	.250	.313	.375	.688	.125	.345	28	8	.307	93	-2	+1	—	—	+9	0.8
2025	26	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	299	268	68	12	2	5	26	73	4	6	5	.254	.329	.369	.698	.116	.330	24	9	.316	100	-0	-1	—	—	+8	0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler McDonough (OGILVIE)	27	45	40	50	45	.205/.262/.300	.095	.299	3	7	32%	6%	54	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Florimón 2015 · MLB	28	44→52	41→45	53→55	42	.213/.265/.313	.100	.286	8	18	28%	6%	58	-1.2	.215/.267/.323	.108	.307	8	19	31%	6%	61	-1.0	.224/.280/.339	.115	.329	10	11	33%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Kaleb Cowart 2019 · MLB	27	45→51	44→45	53→50	42	.220/.270/.345	.125	.284	11	17	26%	6%	69	-0.4	.216/.263/.337	.121	.276	11	10	25%	6%	63	-0.8	.209/.252/.322	.113	.262	10	6	24%	5%	53	-1.0
✕Anderson Feliz 2019 · AAA	27	47→51	41→40	51→50	40	.224/.274/.322	.098	.317	9	15	31%	6%	64	-0.8	.219/.270/.320	.101	.325	9	12	33%	6%	63	-0.9	.195/.249/.286	.092	.299	7	7	35%	6%	42	-1.2
✕Adam Engel 2019 · MLB	27	42→48	43→50	54→60	39	.208/.265/.327	.119	.287	10	21	30%	6%	62	-0.9	.230/.286/.372	.142	.305	14	17	28%	5%	83	+0.6	.227/.287/.366	.138	.305	13	23	28%	5%	79	+0.1
✕David Espinosa 2009 · AAA	27	42→49	43→45	54→50	44	.208/.262/.327	.119	.267	10	15	26%	7%	60	-1.0	.207/.263/.308	.101	.268	8	15	25%	7%	56	-1.3	.186/.250/.263	.077	.240	5	18	23%	8%	36	-1.0
✕Danny Worth 2012 · MLB	26	46→53	41→45	51→50	42	.222/.271/.319	.097	.291	8	15	26%	6%	62	-0.9	.211/.274/.310	.099	.297	7	15	29%	8%	62	-0.9	.222/.290/.321	.098	.325	7	9	31%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Tyler Krieger 2021 · AAA	27	48→57	41→40	50	43	.233/.284/.332	.099	.299	8	16	24%	6%	71	-0.3	.190/.241/.278	.088	.286	8	10	34%	6%	39	-2.5	.144/.184/.198	.054	.225	5	3	37%	4%	-9	-1.8
✕Andrew Velazquez 2021 · MLB	27	44→52	45→50	55→60	40	.219/.267/.349	.130	.296	12	21	30%	6%	69	-0.4	.213/.269/.335	.122	.311	11	32	33%	7%	66	-0.6	.200/.258/.316	.115	.294	12	41	34%	7%	53	-0.8
✕Mitchell Tolman 2021 · AAA	27	44→47	40→45	46→50	44	.209/.280/.297	.088	.304	7	10	32%	8%	61	-1.0	.223/.291/.354	.131	.292	13	8	27%	7%	81	+0.4	.221/.294/.363	.142	.284	14	7	26%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Joel Booker 2021 · AAA	27	45→49	39→40	50→55	38	.217/.272/.303	.086	.305	7	19	30%	5%	59	-1.1	.200/.237/.302	.102	.323	11	21	40%	4%	43	-2.2	.162/.182/.251	.089	.276	11	33	45%	1%	4	-1.7
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2022 · AA	27	41→46	40→45	52→60	42	.197/.273/.296	.099	.291	7	21	32%	7%	59	-1.1	.197/.280/.311	.114	.282	12	26	33%	7%	66	-0.6	.170/.270/.280	.110	.246	14	31	34%	8%	52	-1.1
✕Myles Schroder 2015 · AA	27	46	43→45	55→50	38	.225/.268/.338	.114	.300	9	13	28%	4%	66	-0.6	.222/.266/.319	.097	.288	8	12	25%	4%	60	-1.0	.216/.266/.309	.093	.279	8	10	25%	4%	55	-0.9
✕Matthew Batten 2022 · AAA	27	48→49	39→45	52→55	40	.223/.275/.301	.078	.328	6	20	32%	7%	59	-1.1	.211/.282/.310	.099	.292	10	23	29%	8%	66	-0.6	.197/.272/.297	.101	.262	10	24	27%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Carlos Colmenares 2013 · AAA	27	49→54	37→40	50	44	.231/.283/.306	.075	.305	4	14	25%	6%	63	-0.8	.242/.285/.398	.156	.281	17	13	20%	6%	89	+0.9	.270/.305/.429	.160	.315	11	17	18%	5%	102	+0.4
✕Tyler Wade 2021 · MLB	26	46→55	41→45	52→60	44	.221/.279/.324	.103	.288	8	18	26%	7%	67	-0.5	.225/.296/.319	.094	.297	8	36	25%	8%	73	-0.1	.228/.299/.306	.078	.305	6	50	25%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Joseph Rosa 2023 · AAA	26	44→43	44→40	55→50	41	.215/.277/.335	.120	.309	11	19	33%	7%	69	-0.4	.216/.295/.313	.097	.331	7	15	34%	9%	72	-0.2	.207/.298/.290	.083	.327	6	17	34%	10%	66	-0.3
✕Levi Michael 2018 · AAA	27	44→54	41→45	52→55	40	.212/.277/.309	.096	.301	8	12	31%	6%	63	-0.9	.230/.293/.347	.117	.318	10	11	29%	5%	79	+0.3	.231/.295/.353	.122	.318	11	11	29%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Skyler Stromsmoe 2011 · AA	27	43	39→40	54→50	43	.208/.264/.294	.086	.264	7	13	23%	6%	53	-1.5	.221/.285/.303	.082	.284	6	12	23%	7%	64	-0.8	.224/.295/.297	.072	.285	4	12	21%	7%	65	-0.3
✕Mel Rojas Jr. 2017 · AAA	27	48→53	43→45	50	43	.233/.282/.346	.114	.300	10	12	25%	6%	74	-0.1	.227/.274/.352	.125	.293	12	10	26%	6%	72	-0.2	.225/.270/.346	.121	.286	13	4	26%	5%	69	-0.2
✕Mason McCoy 2022 · AAA	27	44→50	41→45	53→55	39	.213/.257/.310	.097	.297	8	12	30%	6%	53	-1.5	.198/.256/.324	.126	.291	13	21	34%	7%	58	-1.2	.187/.251/.303	.116	.274	12	25	34%	7%	48	-1.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)