Tim Lopes
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27 | AAAMIL | 370 | .226/.309/.401 | 11 | 9 | 57 | — | .188/.254/.312 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAACOL | 299 | .271/.337/.451 | 9 | 10 | 62 | — | .209/.265/.330 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAASD | 550 | .282/.379/.421 | 13 | 42 | 82 | — | .242/.315/.337 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 244 | 215 | 68 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 24 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 316 | 388 | 479 | 867 | 163 | 358 | 12 | 10 | 376 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 365 | 334 | 92 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 45 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 275 | 320 | 347 | 668 | 72 | 313 | 12 | 5 | 295 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 470 | 421 | 100 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 37 | 81 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 238 | 308 | 337 | 645 | 100 | 285 | 17 | 8 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 547 | 478 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 96 | 8 | 35 | 18 | 276 | 343 | 362 | 705 | 86 | 337 | 18 | 7 | 310 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 581 | 510 | 145 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 54 | 88 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 284 | 361 | 355 | 716 | 71 | 338 | 15 | 9 | 323 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 526 | 469 | 127 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 86 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 271 | 342 | 390 | 732 | 119 | 314 | 16 | 9 | 327 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 385 | 354 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 58 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 277 | 328 | 364 | 692 | 88 | 322 | 15 | 7 | 310 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 128 | 111 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 270 | 362 | 360 | 723 | 90 | 354 | 23 | 12 | 330 | 111 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 420 | 374 | 113 | 31 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 72 | 3 | 26 | 9 | 302 | 368 | 476 | 844 | 174 | 344 | 17 | 9 | 368 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 151 | 143 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 238 | 278 | 364 | 642 | 126 | 299 | 23 | 4 | 287 | 82 | -3 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 370 | 327 | 74 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 92 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 226 | 309 | 401 | 709 | 174 | 276 | 25 | 9 | 314 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 299 | 266 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 69 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 271 | 337 | 451 | 788 | 180 | 328 | 23 | 8 | 343 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 550 | 475 | 134 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 123 | 2 | 42 | 8 | 282 | 379 | 421 | 800 | 139 | 356 | 22 | 13 | 361 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 279 | 254 | 64 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 63 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 252 | 317 | 362 | 679 | 110 | 323 | 23 | 8 | 306 | 94 | -2 | +1 | -4 | -7 | +6 | -0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 244 | 224 | 52 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 232 | 283 | 339 | 623 | 107 | 276 | 17 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 365 | 341 | 92 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 63 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 270 | 301 | 334 | 635 | 65 | 310 | 17 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 470 | 429 | 88 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 118 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 205 | 265 | 280 | 545 | 75 | 269 | 25 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 547 | 490 | 129 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 130 | 8 | 35 | 18 | 263 | 315 | 345 | 660 | 82 | 328 | 24 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 581 | 526 | 151 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 107 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 287 | 343 | 357 | 701 | 70 | 348 | 18 | 7 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 526 | 483 | 124 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 104 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 257 | 310 | 358 | 668 | 101 | 308 | 20 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 385 | 360 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 70 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 269 | 310 | 350 | 660 | 81 | 317 | 18 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 128 | 111 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 270 | 362 | 360 | 723 | 90 | 354 | 23 | 12 | 332 | 111 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 420 | 385 | 95 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 94 | 3 | 26 | 9 | 247 | 298 | 377 | 674 | 130 | 295 | 22 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 151 | 143 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 238 | 278 | 364 | 642 | 126 | 299 | 23 | 4 | 290 | 82 | -3 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 370 | 336 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 108 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 188 | 254 | 312 | 567 | 125 | 243 | 29 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 299 | 273 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 83 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 209 | 265 | 330 | 595 | 121 | 265 | 28 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 550 | 496 | 120 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 51 | 150 | 2 | 42 | 8 | 242 | 315 | 337 | 652 | 95 | 328 | 27 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 244 | 224 | 52 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 232 | 283 | 339 | 623 | 107 | 280 | 17 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Mariners | — | 244 | 215 | 68 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 24 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 316 | 388 | 479 | 867 | 163 | 358 | 12 | 10 | 376 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 365 | 341 | 92 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 63 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 270 | 301 | 334 | 635 | 65 | 325 | 17 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 365 | 334 | 92 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 45 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 275 | 320 | 347 | 668 | 72 | 313 | 12 | 5 | 295 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 470 | 429 | 88 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 118 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 205 | 265 | 280 | 545 | 75 | 275 | 25 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ RAW | High Desert Mavericks | — | 470 | 421 | 100 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 37 | 81 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 238 | 308 | 337 | 645 | 100 | 285 | 17 | 8 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 547 | 490 | 129 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 130 | 8 | 35 | 18 | 263 | 315 | 345 | 660 | 82 | 349 | 24 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 547 | 478 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 96 | 8 | 35 | 18 | 276 | 343 | 362 | 705 | 86 | 337 | 18 | 7 | 310 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 581 | 526 | 151 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 107 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 287 | 343 | 357 | 701 | 70 | 355 | 18 | 7 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA RAW | Jackson Generals | — | 581 | 510 | 145 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 54 | 88 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 284 | 361 | 355 | 716 | 71 | 338 | 15 | 9 | 323 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 526 | 483 | 124 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 104 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 257 | 310 | 358 | 668 | 101 | 313 | 20 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 526 | 469 | 127 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 86 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 271 | 342 | 390 | 732 | 119 | 314 | 16 | 9 | 327 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 385 | 360 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 70 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 269 | 310 | 350 | 660 | 81 | 325 | 18 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 385 | 354 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 58 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 277 | 328 | 364 | 692 | 88 | 322 | 15 | 7 | 310 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 496 | 125 | 31 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 123 | 4 | 32 | 12 | 252 | 313 | 373 | 686 | 121 | 312 | 22 | 7 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 548 | 485 | 143 | 38 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 101 | 4 | 32 | 12 | 295 | 367 | 449 | 816 | 155 | 346 | 18 | 9 | 359 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 151 | 143 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 238 | 278 | 364 | 642 | 126 | 299 | 23 | 4 | 290 | 82 | -3 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB RAW | Seattle Mariners | — | 151 | 143 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 238 | 278 | 364 | 642 | 126 | 299 | 23 | 4 | 287 | 82 | -3 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 370 | 336 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 108 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 188 | 254 | 312 | 567 | 125 | 246 | 29 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 370 | 327 | 74 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 92 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 226 | 309 | 401 | 709 | 174 | 276 | 25 | 9 | 314 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 299 | 273 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 83 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 209 | 265 | 330 | 595 | 121 | 271 | 28 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 299 | 266 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 69 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 271 | 337 | 451 | 788 | 180 | 328 | 23 | 8 | 343 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 550 | 496 | 120 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 51 | 150 | 2 | 42 | 8 | 242 | 315 | 337 | 652 | 95 | 330 | 27 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 550 | 475 | 134 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 123 | 2 | 42 | 8 | 282 | 379 | 421 | 800 | 139 | 356 | 22 | 13 | 361 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 244 | 226 | 52 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 230 | 283 | 336 | 620 | 106 | 276 | 17 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 365 | 347 | 92 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 63 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 265 | 301 | 329 | 629 | 63 | 310 | 17 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 470 | 432 | 88 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 118 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 204 | 265 | 278 | 543 | 74 | 269 | 25 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 547 | 505 | 129 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 130 | 8 | 35 | 18 | 255 | 315 | 335 | 650 | 79 | 328 | 24 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 581 | 531 | 151 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 107 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 284 | 343 | 354 | 697 | 70 | 348 | 18 | 7 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 526 | 484 | 124 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 104 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 256 | 310 | 357 | 667 | 101 | 308 | 20 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 385 | 361 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 70 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 269 | 310 | 349 | 659 | 80 | 317 | 18 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 499 | 125 | 31 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 123 | 4 | 32 | 12 | 251 | 313 | 371 | 684 | 120 | 309 | 22 | 7 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 151 | 142 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 239 | 278 | 366 | 644 | 127 | 299 | 23 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 370 | 337 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 108 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 187 | 254 | 312 | 566 | 125 | 243 | 29 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 299 | 276 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 83 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 207 | 265 | 326 | 591 | 120 | 265 | 28 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 550 | 492 | 120 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 51 | 150 | 2 | 42 | 8 | 244 | 315 | 339 | 655 | 96 | 328 | 27 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 279 | 254 | 64 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 63 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 252 | 317 | 362 | 679 | 110 | 323 | 23 | 8 | 306 | 76 | -2 | +1 | -4 | -7 | +6 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 149 | 44 | 0 | 7 | 49 | 147 | 7 | 26 | 7 | 252 | 316 | 361 | 678 | 110 | 323 | 23 | 8 | 306 | 76 | -5 | +2 | -9 | -17 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5036 | 4597 | 1132 | 212 | 40 | 47 | 318 | 1132 | 44 | 231 | 86 | 246 | 301 | 340 | 642 | 94 | 313 | 22 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -2 | +1 | -4 | -7 | +6 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 146 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 146 | 6 | 30 | 11 | 246 | 302 | 339 | 641 | 93 | 313 | 22 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -5 | +2 | -9 | -17 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 550 PAwOBA .352 → .290 (−62)K% 22.4% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.36% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.09% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 9.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.958 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×0.982 | 26.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.53% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.982 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.982 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.69% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .352 → .290; ISO .139 → .100; BABIP .356 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 299 PAwOBA .338 → .260 (−78)K% 23.1% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.84% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 19.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.57% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.99% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .338 → .260; ISO .180 → .126; BABIP .328 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANashville Sounds · 370 PAwOBA .309 → .253 (−56)K% 24.9% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.86% | ÷1.024 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.19% | ÷0.946 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.30% | ÷0.966 | ×0.930 | ×0.971 | ×1.003 | 17.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.81% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | ×1.003 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | ×1.003 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.68% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.59% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .309 → .253; ISO .174 → .134; BABIP .276 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 420 PAwOBA .364 → .295 (−69)K% 17.1% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.14% | ÷0.990 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.18% | ÷0.985 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 20.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.26% | ÷0.998 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 8.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.073 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.31% | ÷1.049 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 2.54% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 115, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .364 → .295; ISO .174 → .134; BABIP .344 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 385 PAwOBA .305 → .284 (−20)K% 15.1% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.06% | ÷0.993 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.75% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.930 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 25.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.080 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 0.55% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .305 → .284; ISO .088 → .076; BABIP .322 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 526 PAwOBA .321 → .292 (−29)K% 16.3% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.35% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.13% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.24% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×1.037 | ×1.027 | 23.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.05% | ÷1.024 | ×0.860 | ×1.037 | ×1.027 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.037 | ×1.027 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.165 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .321 → .292; ISO .119 → .102; BABIP .314 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAJackson Generals · 581 PAwOBA .317 → .308 (−9)K% 15.1% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.15% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.29% | ÷1.011 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 6.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.49% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 27.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.889 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.138 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.24% | ÷0.992 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.20% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 78, 3B 128, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .317 → .308; ISO .071 → .073; BABIP .338 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 547 PAwOBA .304 → .280 (−24)K% 17.6% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.55% | ÷0.988 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.31% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.92% | ÷0.995 | ×0.910 | ×1.048 | ×1.027 | 25.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷0.930 | ×0.820 | ×1.048 | ×1.027 | 6.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.048 | ×1.027 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.077 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 0.46% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .304 → .280; ISO .086 → .080; BABIP .337 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).