Jesus Travieso — OGILVIE

Jesus Travieso P FCL Red Sox

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 140 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%23.3%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL4045

CMD3540

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	11	11	21	93	27	10	0	100%	1.9	19.7%	13.4%	6.3%	0.0%	3.80	3.14	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	11	11	21	93	27	10	0	100%	1.9	29.0%	10.8%	18.3%	0.0%	3.80	1.98	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	19	16	65	283	90	36	3	84%	3.4	22.4%	15.6%	6.8%	2.0%	3.06	4.26	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	19	16	65	283	90	36	3	84%	3.4	31.8%	12.7%	19.1%	1.1%	3.06	2.59	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	BOS	6	6	35	149	35	20	4	100%	5.9	23.3%	13.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.82	4.82	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	BOS	7	7	37	156	37	19	4	100%	5.3	23.7%	12.4%	11.3%	2.8%	4.67	4.61	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	BOS	7	7	39	164	40	19	5	100%	5.6	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	2.8%	4.53	4.45	+0.0
2029	22	MLB	BOS	7	7	41	172	43	19	5	100%	5.8	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	2.7%	4.35	4.24	+0.1
2030	23	MLB	BOS	8	8	42	179	46	18	5	100%	5.3	25.7%	10.3%	15.3%	2.7%	4.20	4.10	+0.2
2031	24	MLB	BOS	8	8	43	183	48	18	5	100%	5.4	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.00	+0.3
2032	25	MLB	BOS	8	8	44	185	49	18	5	100%	5.5	26.6%	9.9%	16.7%	2.7%	4.00	3.95	+0.3
2033	26	MLB	BOS	7	7	44	185	50	18	5	100%	6.3	26.8%	9.9%	16.9%	2.7%	3.95	3.92	+0.3
2034	27	MLB	BOS	7	7	43	182	49	18	5	100%	6.2	26.8%	9.9%	16.8%	2.7%	3.96	3.96	+0.3
2035	28	MLB	BOS	7	7	42	177	47	18	5	100%	6.0	26.7%	10.1%	16.6%	2.8%	4.01	4.05	+0.2
2027	20	MLB	BOS	3	3	18	76	18	9	2	100%	6.0	23.7%	12.4%	11.3%	2.8%	4.68	4.62	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	BOS	5	5	28	118	28	14	3	100%	5.6	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	2.8%	4.54	4.46	+0.0
2029	22	MLB	BOS	6	6	34	144	36	16	4	100%	5.7	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	2.8%	4.36	4.25	+0.1
2030	23	MLB	BOS	7	7	38	160	41	17	4	100%	5.4	25.7%	10.3%	15.3%	2.7%	4.21	4.11	+0.2
2031	24	MLB	BOS	7	7	40	169	44	17	5	100%	5.7	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	2.7%	4.09	4.01	+0.3
2032	25	MLB	BOS	7	7	41	173	46	17	5	100%	5.9	26.6%	9.9%	16.7%	2.7%	4.01	3.96	+0.3
2033	26	MLB	BOS	7	7	42	177	48	17	5	100%	6.0	26.8%	9.9%	16.9%	2.7%	3.96	3.93	+0.3
2034	27	MLB	BOS	7	7	41	173	46	17	5	100%	5.9	26.8%	9.9%	16.8%	2.7%	3.97	3.97	+0.3
2035	28	MLB	BOS	7	7	40	169	45	17	5	100%	5.7	26.7%	10.1%	16.6%	2.8%	4.02	4.06	+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			58	58	323	1362	353	141	37	100%	5.6	25.9%	10.4%	15.6%	2.7%	4.15	3.72	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	844	219	87	23	100%	5.5	25.9%	10.4%	15.6%	2.7%	4.15	3.72	+3.9
Career	—			30	27	86	376	82	57	6	90%	2.9	21.8%	15.1%	6.7%	1.5%	3.24	3.98	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—			70	63	200	874	190	132	13	90%	2.9	21.8%	15.1%	6.7%	1.5%	3.24	3.98	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Travieso (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	—	4.43	24.3%	12.7%	117	-0.39	—	—	—
Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP-	4.11	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.12	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.01	4.07	257	87
Ricardo Yan R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	19	SP	4.05	20.5%	14.6%	1.5%	.271	4.47	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.42	3.63	282	84
Moises Castillo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.08	19.4%	5.0%	65	-0.50	3.77	101	84
Reny Artiles R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	19	SP	3.91	24.2%	12.4%	2.3%	.419	5.75	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.84	3.91	165	83
Adrian Heredia R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP	3.78	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.09	15.7%	2.9%	81	+1.31	3.39	125	82
Biembenido Brito R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP	4.62	24.7%	18.5%	2.3%	.301	5.30	18.7%	-1.3%	91	+0.68	3.58	130	82
Luis Perales R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	19	SP	3.83	23.9%	16.6%	1.2%	.253	4.48	23.9%	10.2%	116	+0.65	2.32	221	81
Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.47	20.0%	8.0%	254	-0.30	3.83	358	81
Jharold Clemente R 2027 · 5.08 FIP	20	SP	5.08	17.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.258	5.35	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.27	3.91	116	81
Gabe Bierman R 2028 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP-	5.08	21.3%	11.8%	4.2%	.277	4.65	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.43	4.20	301	81
Chad Donato R 2029 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.91	439	81
Mick Abel R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	19	SP	4.97	25.8%	16.9%	3.5%	.242	4.96	21.3%	7.0%	326	-0.01	2.24	528	81
Randry De Leon R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP	4.64	18.0%	11.5%	2.9%	.284	4.99	20.4%	1.4%	59	+0.35	4.37	132	80
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	19	SP	4.23	24.5%	12.8%	2.9%	.326	5.90	18.3%	1.5%	143	+1.67	4.23	251	80
Jeisson Cabrera R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	19	SP	3.79	20.0%	13.0%	1.3%	.312	4.42	21.3%	5.8%	51	+0.63	3.69	224	80
Carson Fulmer R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	21.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.259	4.87	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.83	3.84	879	80
Dylan Lesko R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	19	SP	4.44	26.8%	18.3%	2.4%	.333	6.51	18.1%	-5.9%	120	+2.07	4.44	148	79
Adrian Navas R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.34	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.67	3.67	204	79
Tahnaj Thomas R 2026 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	5.63	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.57	3.73	214	78
Levi Wells R 2029 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.85	19.2%	9.8%	132	-0.47	3.70	192	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	41	25.6%	10.8%	1.06	4.24
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Matt Barnes ('23)	9	49	29.6%	10.8%	1.03	4.14
Brad Boxberger ('23)	8	43	27.1%	11.7%	1.17	3.86
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Hansel Robles ('22)	7	59	25.3%	10.1%	1.16	3.86