Jesus Travieso — OGILVIE

Jesus Travieso P FCL Pirates

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 140 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.4 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%23.5%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$36M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD4040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.5M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	11	11	21	93	27	10	0	100%	1.9	19.7%	13.4%	6.3%	0.0%	3.80	3.14	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	11	11	21	93	27	10	0	100%	1.9	19.7%	13.4%	6.3%	0.0%	3.80	3.14	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	11	11	21	93	27	10	0	100%	1.9	29.0%	10.8%	18.3%	0.0%	3.80	1.98	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	65	283	90	36	3	84%	3.4	22.4%	15.6%	6.8%	1.6%	3.06	4.08	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	65	283	90	36	3	84%	3.4	22.4%	15.6%	6.8%	1.6%	3.06	4.08	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	16	65	283	90	36	3	84%	3.4	31.8%	12.7%	19.1%	1.1%	3.06	2.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	2	0	2	12	4	3	0	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	2	0	2	12	4	3	0	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	PIT	2	0	2	12	4	3	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	25.0%	8.3%	0.0%	4.50	3.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	61	258	62	35	7	100%	5.6	23.9%	13.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.83	4.75	+0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	64	271	66	34	7	100%	5.4	24.2%	12.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.64	4.54	+0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	67	285	71	33	8	100%	5.6	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.7%	4.43	4.30	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	70	295	76	32	8	100%	5.4	25.8%	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	4.25	4.14	+0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	72	302	80	31	8	100%	5.5	26.4%	10.3%	16.0%	2.6%	4.11	4.02	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	72	306	82	31	8	100%	6.0	26.7%	10.1%	16.7%	2.6%	4.01	3.94	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	72	306	82	31	8	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.1%	16.9%	2.6%	3.96	3.92	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	71	301	81	31	8	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.1%	16.8%	2.7%	3.96	3.96	+0.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	69	293	78	30	8	100%	5.8	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.8%	4.01	4.04	+0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	66	280	74	29	8	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.5%	16.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.17	+0.6
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	62	263	69	28	8	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	3.1%	4.26	4.35	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	PIT	5	5	30	127	30	17	3	100%	6.0	23.9%	13.8%	10.1%	2.6%	4.71	4.63	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	47	198	48	25	5	100%	5.2	24.2%	12.5%	11.7%	2.6%	4.53	4.43	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	57	241	60	28	6	100%	5.7	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.5%	4.32	4.19	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	63	266	69	29	7	100%	5.7	25.8%	10.8%	15.0%	2.5%	4.14	4.03	+0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	66	279	73	29	7	100%	5.5	26.4%	10.3%	16.0%	2.4%	4.00	3.91	+0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	68	287	77	29	7	100%	5.7	26.7%	10.1%	16.7%	2.4%	3.90	3.83	+0.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	69	291	78	29	7	100%	5.8	26.9%	10.1%	16.9%	2.4%	3.85	3.81	+0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	68	287	77	29	7	100%	6.2	26.9%	10.1%	16.8%	2.5%	3.85	3.85	+0.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	66	279	75	29	7	100%	6.0	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.6%	3.90	3.93	+0.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	63	266	71	28	7	100%	6.3	26.6%	10.5%	16.1%	2.7%	3.99	4.05	+0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	59	249	65	27	7	100%	5.9	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	2.9%	4.13	4.22	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	117	655	2764	723	298	70	100%	5.6	26.1%	10.8%	15.4%	2.5%	4.07	3.65	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	221	91	21	100%	5.6	26.1%	10.8%	15.4%	2.5%	4.07	3.65	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		32	27	88	388	86	60	5	84%	2.8	22.1%	15.4%	6.7%	1.2%	3.27	3.84	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	61	200	882	195	136	11	84%	2.7	22.1%	15.4%	6.7%	1.2%	3.27	3.84	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Travieso (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	23.5%	15.5%	2.8%	—	4.52	24.4%	11.9%	193	-0.51	—	—	—
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	84
Ricardo Yan R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP	4.00	20.5%	14.6%	1.4%	.271	4.43	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.43	3.62	300	83
Biembenido Brito R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP	4.64	24.7%	18.5%	2.3%	.301	5.37	18.7%	-1.3%	91	+0.73	3.58	130	83
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	82
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	82
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	80
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	79
Mick Abel R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	25.8%	16.9%	3.5%	.242	4.88	20.9%	7.4%	326	-0.07	2.24	528	79
Reny Artiles R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	24.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.419	5.64	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.30	4.34	165	79
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	78
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	78
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	78
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	78
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	78
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	78
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	77
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	77
Yoniel Curet R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	19	SP-	5.18	21.8%	17.5%	3.1%	.205	3.81	23.8%	8.0%	273	-1.37	3.40	385	77
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	65	25.9%	11.1%	1.07	4.26
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22