Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians | 16 | 13 | 38 | 181 | 34 | 33 | 4 | 81% | 2.4 | 12.8% | 22.8% | -10.0% | 3.1% | 5.63 | 6.61 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians | 16 | 13 | 38 | 181 | 34 | 33 | 4 | 81% | 2.4 | 18.8% | 18.2% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 5.63 | 5.27 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 80 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 75% | 2.5 | 23.0% | 15.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 5.06 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 80 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 75% | 2.5 | 33.8% | 12.5% | 21.3% | 2.5% | 4.58 | 3.20 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 16 | 16 | 61 | 281 | 62 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 3.8 | 17.0% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.63 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 16 | 16 | 61 | 281 | 62 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 3.8 | 22.1% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 5.19 | 5.57 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 37 | 1 | 51 | 213 | 52 | 19 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 3.73 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 37 | 1 | 51 | 213 | 52 | 19 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 3.20 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 36 | 1 | 44 | 196 | 26 | 29 | 5 | 3% | 1.2 | 10.7% | 16.3% | -5.5% | 2.5% | 4.87 | 5.64 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 36 | 1 | 44 | 196 | 26 | 29 | 5 | 3% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 14.8% | -1.5% | 2.6% | 4.87 | 5.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 0 | 26 | 108 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.17 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 83 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 37 | 214 | 951 | 152 | 147 | 28 | 33% | 1.9 | 16.0% | 15.4% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 5.34 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 35 | 200 | 890 | 143 | 137 | 27 | 33% | 1.9 | 16.0% | 15.4% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 5.34 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tahnaj Thomas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.55 | 22.3% | 12.3% | 26 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 75 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 75 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 75 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 75 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 75 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 75 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 74 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 74 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 18.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.84 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 49 | +2.16 | 2.81 | 426 | 73 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 73 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 72 |
| Linder Castro R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.55 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .305 | 5.45 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 62 | +0.90 | 4.27 | 279 | 72 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 72 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .371 | 4.86 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 37 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 133 | 72 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 72 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 72 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 72 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 71 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 1.17 | 4.50 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |