Aidan Curry
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 205 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2029
ERA4.85
FIP4.85
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%10.4%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 1 | 16 | 85 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 18.4% | 20.6% | 1.6% | 13.79 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 12 | 10 | 38 | 172 | 56 | 22 | 4 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.23 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 21 | 17 | 88 | 357 | 104 | 39 | 7 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 1.5% | 2.75 | 3.36 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 23 | 20 | 94 | 422 | 103 | 43 | 20 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 6.44 | 6.22 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 22 | 17 | 85 | 369 | 116 | 44 | 10 | 23.3% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 4.42 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 2 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 13 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 87 | 368 | 82 | 43 | 12 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 96 | 403 | 95 | 44 | 13 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.40 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 96 | 45 | 13 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 107 | 453 | 103 | 47 | 14 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 106 | 48 | 15 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 111 | 467 | 106 | 48 | 15 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 103 | 48 | 15 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 99 | 47 | 15 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 95 | 46 | 14 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 90 | 44 | 14 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 84 | 43 | 14 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 79 | 42 | 13 | 21.2% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.10 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 73 | 40 | 13 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 73 | 36 | 13 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 5.10 | 5.08 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 67 | 330 | 1440 | 312 | 180 | 49 | 21.7% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.71 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 41 | 200 | 874 | 189 | 109 | 30 | 21.7% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.71 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aidan Curry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.63 | 22.7% | 12.2% | 318 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.92 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .277 | 4.93 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 274 | +0.01 | 4.04 | 448 | 88 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 88 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 86 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 86 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 86 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 86 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 85 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 85 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 85 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 85 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 85 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 84 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.92 | 119 | 84 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 84 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 84 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.31 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 5.24 | 18.5% | 3.9% | 104 | -0.07 | 4.38 | 355 | 83 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 83 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 83 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 82 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.65 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.9% | .269 | 3.55 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 216 | -0.10 | 2.31 | 462 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $6M | $18M | +$12M | ||