Aidan Curry P Frisco RoughRiders
Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115
ERA5.09
FIP5.09
K%22.6%
BB%14.3%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
K: +4.5 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+4KBB: -5.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-6BBCONTACT: -8.8 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-9CONTACTSTAM: +18.0 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+18STAMTotal WAR: +0.84 (133 IP)+0.8WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.0-$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP40
STUF5055
CMD3040
K†5555
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202119ROKACL Rangers1111685231419%1.418.4%20.6%-2.2%1.6%13.795.03
202119ROKACL Rangers1111685231419%1.427.1%16.5%10.6%1.2%13.793.67
202220MIX2 levels1210381725622483%3.221.7%13.5%8.1%3.4%4.234.88
202220MIX2 levels1210381725622483%3.232.6%12.8%19.8%2.3%4.233.26
202321MIX2 levels21178835710439781%4.222.8%10.7%12.2%1.4%2.753.29
202321MIX2 levels21178835710439781%4.229.1%10.9%18.2%2.0%2.753.10
202422A+Hickory Crawdads232094422103432087%4.118.8%11.7%7.1%5.8%6.446.16
202422A+Hickory Crawdads232094422103432087%4.124.4%10.2%14.2%4.7%6.445.05
202523MIX2 levels221785369116441077%3.823.3%13.8%9.5%2.4%3.834.18
202523MIX2 levels221785369116441077%3.831.4%11.9%19.5%2.7%3.833.45
▸ 2026 Season
202624AAFrisco RoughRiders14146829192329100%4.925.0%12.4%12.6%3.8%4.904.64+0.1
ROS24MLBTEX12126527462399100%5.422.6%14.3%8.3%3.1%5.095.09-0.3
ROS24MLBTEX1114110100%1.022.6%14.3%8.3%3.2%5.115.11-0.0
2026 TOT24MLBTEX133565154711827.2%12.6%14.7%3.1%4.994.86+0.8
2026 FULL24MLBTEX1511022.6%14.3%8.3%3.2%5.114.74-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBTEX19191094611065914100%5.723.0%12.8%10.2%3.1%4.924.86+0.7
202826MLBTEX20201215111196316100%6.123.2%12.4%10.8%3.1%4.824.78+0.9
202927MLBTEX20201195041176216100%6.023.2%12.2%10.9%3.1%4.804.80+0.8
202725MLBTEX884820347266100%6.023.0%12.8%10.2%3.1%4.944.88-0.2
202826MLBTEX141481342794211100%5.823.2%12.4%10.8%3.1%4.844.80+0.2
202927MLBTEX161693393914812100%5.823.2%12.2%10.9%3.2%4.824.82+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career373722394021811730100%6.023.1%12.4%10.7%3.1%4.864.45+2.5
/ 200 IP343420084419610527100%6.023.1%12.4%10.7%3.1%4.864.45+2.2
Career1037938916963722155677%3.822.0%12.7%9.3%3.3%4.844.68+3.3
/ 200 IP53412008731921112977%3.822.0%12.7%9.3%3.3%4.844.68+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Aidan Curry (OGILVIE) 5.09 22.6%14.3%3.1% 4.81 23.1%10.7%350 -0.28
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP 24 SP 4.26 19.3%14.1%1.8%.258 4.83 15.4%-0.2%44 +0.57 4.26 151 84
J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP 24 SP- 5.38 17.9%13.9%3.7%.285 4.39 26.3%15.2%225 -0.99 4.11 563 83
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP 23 SP- 4.37 19.5%10.5%2.9%.302 4.38 23.2%14.7%121 +0.01 3.42 237 83
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP 24 SP- 5.22 17.5%12.2%3.7%.293 4.57 22.2%10.9%274 -0.65 4.00 512 82
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP 22 SP 4.75 23.2%13.6%3.4%.242 4.75 119 82
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP 25 SP- 4.18 18.6%14.2%1.6%.336 5.07 26.7%12.0%62 +0.89 4.18 144 82
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 24 SP 4.24 18.9%10.3%2.6%.329 4.33 21.3%10.9%132 +0.09 2.63 213 80
Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP 23 SP- 4.55 19.1%14.3%2.3%.290 4.24 21.4%6.5%143 -0.31 3.72 283 80
Reid Johnston R 2026 · 4.90 FIP 24 SP- 4.90 19.5%13.9%3.1%.256 5.86 17.2%2.4%31 +0.96 3.72 234 79
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 5.06 FIP 24 SP 5.06 23.0%13.2%4.1%.344 5.55 31.7%18.3%18 +0.49 4.72 283 79
Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP 24 SP- 4.63 21.3%12.6%3.2%.337 3.44 312 79
Pedro Payano R 2026 · 4.77 FIP 24 SP 4.77 20.1%13.5%3.0%.291 4.48 19.2%5.3%185 -0.29 2.51 707 78
Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP 24 SP 4.45 20.9%16.4%1.9%.329 5.26 18.8%5.1%59 +0.81 4.45 194 78
Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP 24 SP- 4.23 19.6%10.9%2.5%.297 6.28 14.6%-9.6%67 +2.05 2.83 666 78
Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.98 FIP 23 SP- 3.98 18.5%12.1%1.7%.266 4.39 21.4%7.9%152 +0.41 3.98 270 77
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP 25 SP- 4.98 17.6%11.2%3.6%.282 9.58 19.7%7.1%18 +4.60 4.98 105 77
Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP 24 SP- 4.82 24.7%13.5%3.8%.277 3.45 102 77
Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP 24 SP 4.16 23.3%11.4%2.9%.287 4.01 23.9%15.4%393 -0.15 3.80 651 77
Enmanuel Pinales R 2026 · 4.66 FIP 24 SP- 4.66 17.9%11.0%3.0%.306 4.64 321 77
Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP 22 SP 4.50 23.5%16.3%2.4%.307 4.30 156 77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION411023.0%12.9%1.204.89
Tyson Ross ('19)410721.3%10.8%0.844.31
James Kaprielian ('23)310520.5%9.6%1.264.58
Ian Anderson ('22)39122.5%10.4%0.963.97
Tyler Chatwood ('21)510419.2%13.3%0.944.48
Francisco Liriano ('19)513022.3%11.2%1.094.30
Brandon Finnegan ('18)38019.7%11.6%1.574.19