Aidan Curry
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115
ERA5.09
FIP5.09
K%22.6%
BB%14.3%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 1 | 16 | 85 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 9% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 20.6% | -2.2% | 1.6% | 13.79 | 5.03 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 1 | 16 | 85 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 9% | 1.4 | 27.1% | 16.5% | 10.6% | 1.2% | 13.79 | 3.67 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 38 | 172 | 56 | 22 | 4 | 83% | 3.2 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.23 | 4.88 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 38 | 172 | 56 | 22 | 4 | 83% | 3.2 | 32.6% | 12.8% | 19.8% | 2.3% | 4.23 | 3.26 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 88 | 357 | 104 | 39 | 7 | 81% | 4.2 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 2.75 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 88 | 357 | 104 | 39 | 7 | 81% | 4.2 | 29.1% | 10.9% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 2.75 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 23 | 20 | 94 | 422 | 103 | 43 | 20 | 87% | 4.1 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.44 | 6.16 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 23 | 20 | 94 | 422 | 103 | 43 | 20 | 87% | 4.1 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 4.7% | 6.44 | 5.05 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 85 | 369 | 116 | 44 | 10 | 77% | 3.8 | 23.3% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 3.83 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 85 | 369 | 116 | 44 | 10 | 77% | 3.8 | 31.4% | 11.9% | 19.5% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 14 | 14 | 68 | 291 | 92 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.9 | 25.0% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 62 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 5.11 | 5.11 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 133 | 565 | 154 | 71 | 18 | — | — | 27.2% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.6% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 5.11 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 106 | 59 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.86 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 119 | 63 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 117 | 62 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 47 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 79 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.80 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 91 | 48 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 37 | 223 | 940 | 218 | 117 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.45 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 105 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 103 | 79 | 389 | 1696 | 372 | 215 | 56 | 77% | 3.8 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.68 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 41 | 200 | 873 | 192 | 111 | 29 | 77% | 3.8 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aidan Curry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.81 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 350 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 84 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 83 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 83 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 82 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 82 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 82 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 80 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 80 |
| Reid Johnston R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .256 | 5.86 | 17.2% | 2.4% | 31 | +0.96 | 3.72 | 234 | 79 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .344 | 5.55 | 31.7% | 18.3% | 18 | +0.49 | 4.72 | 283 | 79 |
| Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 312 | 79 |
| Pedro Payano R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.77 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.48 | 19.2% | 5.3% | 185 | -0.29 | 2.51 | 707 | 78 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 78 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 78 |
| Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.7% | .266 | 4.39 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.41 | 3.98 | 270 | 77 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 77 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 77 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 77 |
| Enmanuel Pinales R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 321 | 77 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 110 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 1.20 | 4.89 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |