Aidan Curry — OGILVIE

Aidan Curry P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%22.6%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	1	16	85	23	14	1	9%	1.4	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	1.6%	13.79	5.05	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	1	16	85	23	14	1	9%	1.4	27.1%	16.5%	10.6%	1.2%	13.79	3.67	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	38	172	56	22	4	83%	3.2	21.7%	13.5%	8.1%	3.5%	4.23	4.91	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	38	172	56	22	4	83%	3.2	32.6%	12.8%	19.8%	2.3%	4.23	3.26	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	88	357	104	39	7	81%	4.2	22.8%	10.7%	12.2%	1.5%	2.75	3.34	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	88	357	104	39	7	81%	4.2	22.8%	10.7%	12.2%	1.5%	2.75	3.34	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	88	357	104	39	7	81%	4.2	29.1%	10.9%	18.2%	2.0%	2.75	3.10	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	5.8%	6.44	6.20	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	5.8%	6.44	6.20	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	24.4%	10.2%	14.2%	4.7%	6.44	5.05	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	23.3%	13.8%	9.5%	2.9%	3.83	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	23.3%	13.8%	9.5%	2.9%	3.83	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	31.4%	11.9%	19.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	23	22	104	444	128	55	10	96%	4.5	23.4%	14.2%	9.2%	2.6%	4.93	4.34	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	23	22	104	444	128	55	10	96%	4.5	23.4%	14.2%	9.2%	2.6%	4.93	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TEX	7	7	31	136	42	18	5	100%	4.4	30.9%	13.2%	17.6%	3.7%	3.48	4.19	—
2026	24	AA RAW	TEX	15	14	68	290	83	36	4	93%	4.5	28.6%	12.4%	16.2%	1.4%	5.82	3.01	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	TEX	1	1	5	18	3	1	1	100%	5.0	16.7%	5.6%	11.1%	5.6%	1.80	5.45	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	8	32	7	4	1	100%	7.6	22.6%	13.5%	9.1%	3.2%	5.03	5.03	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	112	476	135	59	11	—	—	28.4%	12.5%	15.9%	2.3%	4.94	4.39	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	121	511	118	63	16	100%	5.8	23.0%	12.2%	10.8%	3.2%	4.87	4.82	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	133	562	130	67	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	11.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.78	4.75	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	131	554	128	65	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	11.7%	11.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.76	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	127	537	124	63	18	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.3%	4.80	4.83	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	122	513	117	62	18	100%	6.1	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.90	4.97	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	114	482	108	59	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	3.6%	5.05	5.14	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	53	224	52	27	8	100%	5.9	23.0%	12.2%	10.8%	3.4%	5.00	4.95	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	89	376	87	45	13	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.9%	11.4%	3.4%	4.91	4.88	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	102	431	100	51	15	100%	6.0	23.2%	11.7%	11.4%	3.4%	4.89	4.89	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	107	452	104	53	16	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.94	4.97	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	106	448	102	54	17	100%	5.9	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	3.7%	5.04	5.11	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	103	435	97	54	17	100%	6.1	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	3.9%	5.20	5.29	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	560	2366	542	283	85	100%	6.0	22.9%	12.0%	10.9%	3.6%	5.00	4.65	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	193	101	30	100%	6.0	22.9%	12.0%	10.9%	3.6%	5.00	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		112	87	425	1849	403	242	59	78%	3.8	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.68	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	41	200	871	190	114	28	78%	3.8	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.68	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Curry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	22.6%	13.5%	3.2%	—	4.78	23.1%	11.2%	385	-0.25	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	83
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	82
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	79
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.96	17.9%	8.2%	286	-1.30	3.70	466	79
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	79
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	79
Chih-Jung Liu R 2023 · 5.16 FIP	24	SP	5.16	23.0%	13.2%	4.3%	.344	5.61	31.7%	18.3%	18	+0.45	4.41	283	79
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	79
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	79
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	79
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	120	22.9%	12.1%	1.27	4.87
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94