Aidan Curry

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#793ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+TEX	23	20	94	6.44	5.05	24.4%	10.2%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.7% · FIP 6.20
2025	23	MIX2 levels	22	17	85	3.83	3.45	31.4%	11.9%	—	K 23.3% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.45
2026	24	MIX3 levels	23	22	104	4.93	3.48	28.8%	12.4%	—	K 23.4% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.34
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	1	1	2	4.84	4.84	24.1%	14.4%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBTEX	6	6	39	4.89	4.88	24.1%	13.7%	0.3
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBTEX	8	8	49	4.87	4.88	23.9%	13.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.3, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 74%

CompsZach Fruit (age 24) · Brett Daniels (age 25) · Paxton Schultz (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%24.1%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	1	16	85	23	14	1	9%	1.4	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	1.6%	13.79	5.05	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	1	16	85	23	14	1	9%	1.4	27.1%	16.5%	10.6%	1.2%	13.79	3.67	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	38	172	56	22	4	83%	3.2	21.7%	13.5%	8.1%	3.5%	4.23	4.91	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	38	172	56	22	4	83%	3.2	32.6%	12.8%	19.8%	2.3%	4.23	3.26	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	88	357	104	39	7	81%	4.2	22.8%	10.7%	12.2%	1.5%	2.75	3.34	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	88	357	104	39	7	81%	4.2	29.1%	10.9%	18.2%	2.0%	2.75	3.10	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	5.8%	6.44	6.20	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	5.8%	6.44	6.20	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	23	20	94	422	103	43	20	87%	4.1	24.4%	10.2%	14.2%	4.7%	6.44	5.05	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	23.3%	13.8%	9.5%	2.9%	3.83	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	23.3%	13.8%	9.5%	2.9%	3.83	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	85	369	116	44	10	77%	3.8	31.4%	11.9%	19.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.45	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	104	444	128	55	10	96%	4.5	23.4%	14.2%	9.2%	2.6%	4.93	4.34	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	104	444	128	55	10	96%	4.5	23.4%	14.2%	9.2%	2.6%	4.93	4.34	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	104	444	128	55	10	96%	4.5	28.8%	12.4%	16.4%	2.3%	4.93	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	24.1%	14.4%	9.7%	2.9%	4.84	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	124	524	126	72	15	100%	5.9	24.1%	13.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.76	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	100	421	101	56	12	100%	5.9	23.9%	13.3%	10.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.76	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	93	391	93	52	12	100%	6.2	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.78	4.82	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	86	361	85	48	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	13.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.87	4.93	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	77	326	75	44	11	100%	5.9	23.0%	13.6%	9.5%	3.4%	5.02	5.11	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	39	165	40	23	5	100%	6.5	24.1%	13.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.89	4.88	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	49	207	49	28	7	100%	6.1	23.9%	13.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.87	4.88	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	57	241	57	32	8	100%	5.7	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	3.3%	4.91	4.95	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	58	33	9	100%	5.9	23.4%	13.3%	10.1%	3.4%	5.00	5.06	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	58	245	56	33	9	100%	5.8	23.0%	13.6%	9.5%	3.6%	5.16	5.25	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	262	1107	261	148	37	100%	6.0	23.6%	13.4%	10.2%	3.3%	4.97	4.64	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	199	113	28	100%	6.0	23.6%	13.4%	10.2%	3.3%	4.97	4.64	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		112	87	425	1849	403	242	59	78%	3.8	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.68	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	41	200	871	190	114	28	78%	3.8	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.68	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 68 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.78 (+0.77)K% 28.6% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.62%	—	×0.810	23.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.41%	—	×1.100	13.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 31 IPFIP 4.19 → 5.54 (+1.36)K% 30.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.88%	—	×0.770	23.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.24%	—	×1.150	15.22%
HR / BF /BF	3.68%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.60%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 58 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.52 (+0.88)K% 28.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.770	22.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.41%	—	×1.150	17.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷1.215	×1.250	1.93%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rangers · 26 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.25 (+1.31)K% 37.9% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.86%	—	×0.680	25.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.91%	—	×1.250	3.64%
HR / BF /BF	4.85%	÷1.302	×1.400	5.22%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 94 IPFIP 4.93 → 6.20 (+1.27)K% 24.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.41%	—	×0.770	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.19%	—	×1.150	11.72%
HR / BF /BF	4.74%	÷1.014	×1.250	5.84%

Result: FIP 4.93 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 82 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.34 (+1.02)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.84%	—	×0.740	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.03%	—	×1.180	10.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷1.082	×1.300	1.50%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 6 IPFIP 10.02 → 12.28 (+2.26)K% 13.9% → 10.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.89%	—	×0.770	10.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	27.78%	—	×1.150	31.94%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷0.948	×1.250	10.99%

Result: FIP 10.02 → 12.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rangers · 35 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.91 (+1.73)K% 31.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.85%	—	×0.680	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.250	13.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.018	×1.400	3.51%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Curry (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.78	23.9%	10.5%	316	-0.06	—	—	—
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	82
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	80
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	80
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	80
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	78
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	78
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	78
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	78
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	78
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	77
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	77
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	77
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	77
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	77
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	77
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	77
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	101	23.7%	13.6%	1.17	4.83
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*