Jose Paulino — OGILVIE

Jose Paulino P FCL Marlins

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%22.6%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	7	7	21	85	23	13	0	100%	3.0	18.4%	19.1%	-0.7%	0.0%	3.86	3.97	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	7	7	21	85	23	13	0	100%	3.0	18.4%	19.1%	-0.7%	0.0%	3.86	3.97	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	7	7	21	85	23	13	0	100%	3.0	27.1%	15.3%	11.8%	0.0%	3.86	2.77	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	12	12	38	170	56	20	0	100%	3.2	22.4%	14.7%	7.7%	0.0%	4.70	3.07	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	12	12	38	170	56	20	0	100%	3.2	22.4%	14.7%	7.7%	0.0%	4.70	3.07	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	12	12	38	170	56	20	0	100%	3.2	32.9%	11.8%	21.2%	0.0%	4.70	1.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	4	16	75	22	17	0	44%	1.8	19.9%	28.3%	-8.4%	0.0%	7.31	5.00	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	4	16	75	22	17	0	44%	1.8	19.9%	28.3%	-8.4%	0.0%	7.31	5.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	MIA	9	4	16	75	22	17	0	44%	1.8	29.3%	22.7%	6.7%	0.0%	7.31	3.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	36	153	35	19	4	100%	5.2	23.1%	12.7%	10.3%	2.8%	4.76	4.67	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	18	76	18	10	2	100%	6.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.3%	2.8%	4.76	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	75	17	10	2	100%	4.4	23.1%	12.7%	10.3%	2.8%	4.76	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	191	112	22	100%	4.6	23.1%	12.7%	10.3%	2.8%	4.76	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		28	23	75	330	69	62	0	82%	2.7	20.8%	18.9%	1.9%	0.0%	5.02	3.74	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	61	200	876	182	166	0	82%	2.7	20.8%	18.9%	1.9%	0.0%	5.02	3.74	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Paulino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	22.6%	14.4%	2.8%	—	4.67	23.1%	10.3%	36	-0.28	—	—	—
Ricardo Yan R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP	4.00	20.5%	14.6%	1.4%	.271	4.43	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.43	3.62	300	84
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	84
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	83
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	80
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	80
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	79
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	79
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	78
Reny Artiles R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	24.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.419	5.64	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.30	4.34	165	78
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	78
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	78
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	78
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	78
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	77
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	77
Yoniel Curet R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	19	SP-	5.18	21.8%	17.5%	3.1%	.205	3.81	23.8%	8.0%	273	-1.37	3.40	385	76
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	76
Biembenido Brito R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP	4.64	24.7%	18.5%	2.3%	.301	5.37	18.7%	-1.3%	91	+0.73	3.58	130	76
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.9%	13.3%	1.08	4.83
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22