Anderson Cardenas

Anderson Cardenas P ACL D-backs

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%22.2%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	13	12	36	149	38	15	2	92%	2.8	17.3%	12.6%	4.8%	1.8%	2.48	4.22	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	13	12	36	149	38	15	2	92%	2.8	17.3%	12.6%	4.8%	1.8%	2.48	4.22	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	13	12	36	149	38	15	2	92%	2.8	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	1.3%	2.48	2.96	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	12	3	35	136	39	13	3	25%	2.9	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.5%	3.38	4.90	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	12	3	35	136	39	13	3	25%	2.9	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.5%	3.38	4.90	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	12	3	35	136	39	13	3	25%	2.9	28.7%	9.6%	19.1%	2.2%	3.38	3.10	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	4	1	8	31	12	2	0	25%	2.1	38.7%	6.5%	32.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.65	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	4	1	8	31	12	2	0	25%	2.1	38.7%	6.5%	32.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.65	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	4	1	8	31	12	2	0	25%	2.1	38.7%	6.5%	32.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	16	11	58	246	78	27	2	69%	3.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	1.1%	3.28	3.52	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	16	11	58	246	78	27	2	69%	3.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	1.1%	3.28	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	ARI	9	7	38	158	51	16	1	78%	4.2	32.3%	10.1%	22.2%	0.6%	3.08	2.00	—
2026	20	A RAW	ARI	7	4	20	88	27	11	1	57%	2.8	30.7%	12.5%	18.2%	1.1%	3.66	2.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	59	250	57	26	7	100%	5.4	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.48	+0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	62	263	62	25	8	100%	5.2	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.27	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	65	273	66	25	8	100%	5.4	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.13	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	66	280	70	24	8	100%	5.5	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.03	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	67	283	71	24	8	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.5%	16.7%	2.8%	4.02	3.97	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	67	283	72	24	8	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.8%	3.97	3.94	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	66	279	71	24	8	100%	6.0	25.5%	8.6%	16.9%	2.9%	3.98	3.98	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	64	270	68	24	8	100%	5.8	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	3.0%	4.03	4.07	+0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	29	122	28	13	3	100%	4.8	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.45	4.39	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	45	190	45	18	5	100%	5.0	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	2.7%	4.28	4.18	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	54	228	56	21	6	100%	5.4	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.04	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	59	249	62	22	7	100%	5.4	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	2.7%	4.02	3.94	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	61	258	65	22	7	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.5%	16.7%	2.7%	3.94	3.89	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	62	262	67	22	7	100%	6.2	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.7%	3.89	3.86	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	63	266	68	23	7	100%	6.3	25.5%	8.6%	16.9%	2.7%	3.89	3.89	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	61	258	65	22	7	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	2.8%	3.94	3.98	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	77	435	1839	457	163	50	100%	5.7	24.8%	8.9%	16.0%	2.7%	4.03	3.61	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	210	75	23	100%	5.7	24.8%	8.9%	16.0%	2.7%	4.03	3.61	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		45	27	137	562	119	70	10	60%	3.0	21.2%	12.5%	8.7%	1.8%	2.89	3.88	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	39	200	820	174	102	15	60%	3.0	21.2%	12.5%	8.7%	1.8%	2.89	3.88	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Cardenas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.29	23.6%	14.0%	186	-0.37	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	82
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	82
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	79
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	79
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	79
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	78
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	78
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	78
Lisandro Almonte R 2022 · 4.73 FIP	20	SP-	4.73	17.9%	10.3%	3.3%	.310	5.04	20.5%	3.3%	50	+0.31	3.81	128	78
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	78
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	78
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	60	24.6%	9.0%	1.11	4.17
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68