Anderson Cardenas

P ACL D-backs

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#837ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKARI	12	3	35	3.38	3.10	28.7%	9.6%	—	K 19.5% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.90
2025	19	ROKARI	4	1	8	0.00	0.94	38.7%	6.5%	—	K 38.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 0.65
2026	20	MIX2 levels	16	11	58	3.28	2.25	31.7%	11.0%	—	K 22.2% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.52
2027PROJ	21	MLBARI	—	—	0	4.73	4.73	22.7%	12.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBARI	5	5	24	4.46	4.36	23.6%	11.2%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBARI	7	7	36	4.28	4.17	24.3%	10.3%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsJake Lyons (age 22) · Kobe Robinson (age 21) · Ray Gaither (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.7%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	13	12	36	149	38	15	2	92%	2.8	17.3%	12.6%	4.8%	1.8%	2.48	4.22	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	13	12	36	149	38	15	2	92%	2.8	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	1.3%	2.48	2.96	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	12	3	35	136	39	13	3	25%	2.9	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.5%	3.38	4.90	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	12	3	35	136	39	13	3	25%	2.9	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.5%	3.38	4.90	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	12	3	35	136	39	13	3	25%	2.9	28.7%	9.6%	19.1%	2.2%	3.38	3.10	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	4	1	8	31	12	2	0	25%	2.1	38.7%	6.5%	32.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.65	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	4	1	8	31	12	2	0	25%	2.1	38.7%	6.5%	32.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.65	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	4	1	8	31	12	2	0	25%	2.1	38.7%	6.5%	32.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.94	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	58	246	78	27	2	69%	3.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	1.1%	3.28	3.52	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	58	246	78	27	2	69%	3.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	1.1%	3.28	3.52	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	11	58	246	78	27	2	69%	3.6	31.7%	11.0%	20.7%	0.8%	3.28	2.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	12.7%	10.0%	2.8%	4.73	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	49	208	49	23	6	100%	4.9	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.54	4.44	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	49	208	51	21	6	100%	5.5	24.3%	10.3%	14.1%	2.8%	4.36	4.25	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	49	208	52	20	6	100%	5.5	24.9%	9.7%	15.1%	2.8%	4.22	4.12	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	48	204	51	19	6	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.3%	15.8%	2.7%	4.12	4.04	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	49	206	52	19	6	100%	6.1	25.4%	9.3%	16.1%	2.7%	4.06	4.02	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	48	201	51	19	6	100%	6.0	25.4%	9.4%	16.0%	2.8%	4.06	4.06	+0.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	24	101	24	11	3	100%	4.8	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	2.6%	4.46	4.36	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	36	152	37	16	4	100%	5.1	24.3%	10.3%	14.1%	2.6%	4.28	4.17	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	41	173	43	17	5	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.7%	15.1%	2.6%	4.14	4.04	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	43	182	46	17	5	100%	6.1	25.2%	9.3%	15.8%	2.6%	4.04	3.96	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	45	190	48	18	5	100%	5.6	25.4%	9.3%	16.1%	2.6%	3.98	3.94	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	44	186	47	17	5	100%	6.3	25.4%	9.4%	16.0%	2.6%	3.98	3.98	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	232	982	245	96	26	100%	5.7	24.9%	9.8%	15.2%	2.6%	4.11	3.67	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	211	83	22	100%	5.7	24.9%	9.8%	15.2%	2.6%	4.11	3.67	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		45	27	137	562	119	70	10	60%	3.0	21.2%	12.5%	8.7%	1.8%	2.89	3.88	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	39	200	820	174	102	15	60%	3.0	21.2%	12.5%	8.7%	1.8%	2.89	3.88	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL D-backs · 38 IPFIP 2.00 → 3.34 (+1.33)K% 32.3% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.28%	—	×0.680	21.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.13%	—	×1.250	12.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.63%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 20 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.86 (+1.15)K% 30.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.68%	—	×0.740	22.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL D-backs · 8 IPFIP 0.65 → 1.90 (+1.25)K% 38.7% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.71%	—	×0.680	26.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.250	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.862	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.65 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL D-backs · 35 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.90 (+1.80)K% 28.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.68%	—	×0.680	19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.56%	—	×1.250	11.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷0.875	×1.400	3.53%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Arizona Black · 36 IPFIP 2.96 → 4.22 (+1.26)K% 25.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.50%	—	×0.680	17.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.250	12.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷1.039	×1.400	1.81%

Result: FIP 2.96 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Cardenas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.7%	12.7%	2.8%	—	4.27	24.3%	13.9%	148	-0.46	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	86
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	83
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	81
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	80
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	80
Robert Colina R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	20.5%	10.8%	2.5%	.366	3.37	22.3%	15.2%	61	-0.72	3.25	266	80
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	386	80
Miguelangel Boadas R 2024 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP-	3.55	20.6%	11.0%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	129	80
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.28	18.7%	7.6%	314	+0.29	3.70	470	79
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	79
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	47	24.6%	10.2%	1.07	4.29
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*