Florencio Serrano

Florencio Serrano P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%15.0%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	7	3	27	121	24	12	5	43%	3.9	13.5%	12.4%	1.1%	5.8%	4.67	6.71	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	7	3	27	121	24	12	5	43%	3.9	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	4.1%	4.67	5.06	—
2021	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	9	5	28	111	29	8	2	56%	3.1	19.3%	8.5%	10.8%	2.4%	1.27	3.84	—
2021	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	9	5	28	111	29	8	2	56%	3.1	26.1%	7.2%	18.9%	1.8%	1.27	2.82	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	32	129	23	12	2	23%	2.4	12.8%	10.2%	2.6%	2.7%	3.41	4.82	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	3	32	129	23	12	2	23%	2.4	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	1.6%	3.41	3.61	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	56	249	47	21	9	0%	2.2	14.0%	9.3%	4.7%	4.0%	5.17	5.29	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	56	249	47	21	9	0%	2.2	14.0%	9.3%	4.7%	4.0%	5.17	5.29	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	56	249	47	21	9	0%	2.2	18.9%	8.4%	10.4%	3.6%	5.17	4.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	3	52	244	43	35	6	11%	1.9	15.0%	12.4%	2.6%	1.7%	5.75	4.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	3	52	244	43	35	6	11%	1.9	15.0%	12.4%	2.6%	1.7%	5.75	4.34	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	3	52	244	43	35	6	11%	1.9	17.6%	14.3%	3.3%	2.5%	5.75	4.98	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	3	37	163	25	10	6	18%	2.2	12.4%	6.6%	5.8%	4.8%	4.82	5.53	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	3	37	163	25	10	6	18%	2.2	12.4%	6.6%	5.8%	4.8%	4.82	5.53	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	3	37	163	25	10	6	18%	2.2	15.3%	6.1%	9.2%	3.7%	4.82	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	TEX	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	15.0%	9.0%	5.9%	3.3%	5.16	5.16	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	193	31	18	6	0%	1.0	15.8%	9.1%	6.7%	3.3%	5.10	5.11	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	42	0	44	187	30	17	6	0%	1.1	16.2%	9.3%	7.0%	3.4%	5.10	5.14	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	TEX	16	0	17	72	11	7	2	0%	1.1	15.8%	9.1%	6.7%	3.3%	5.10	5.11	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	18	10	4	0%	1.0	16.2%	9.3%	7.0%	3.4%	5.10	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	0	44	184	30	17	6	0%	1.0	16.1%	9.2%	6.9%	3.3%	5.10	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	137	78	27	0%	1.1	16.1%	9.2%	6.9%	3.3%	5.10	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		98	17	232	1017	146	102	35	17%	2.4	14.4%	10.0%	4.3%	3.5%	4.47	5.05	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	15	200	878	126	88	30	17%	2.4	14.4%	10.0%	4.3%	3.5%	4.47	5.05	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Florencio Serrano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	15.0%	9.0%	3.3%	—	5.12	16.0%	6.8%	90	-0.04	—	—	—
Jose Campos R 2018 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	.377	6.69	15.5%	4.5%	26	+2.03	3.28	241	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	80
Scott Burke R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	25	SU	5.27	14.9%	8.2%	4.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	119	78
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	78
Casey Cobb R 2022 · 5.46 FIP	26	SU	5.46	15.8%	9.5%	4.5%	.342	5.72	18.7%	10.3%	58	+0.26	3.48	191	78
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	77
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	77
Tyler Higgins R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	15.5%	7.2%	2.9%	.312	5.24	23.0%	16.1%	81	+0.96	3.53	290	77
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	77
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	77
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	76
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	76
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	76
Jarod Wright R 2023 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	13.2%	9.4%	2.4%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	170	76
Micah Dallas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	15.1%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	4.23	18.2%	9.5%	152	-0.33	3.60	201	76
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	76
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	76
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	76
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	76
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	38	15.8%	9.2%	1.29	5.11
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38