Florencio Serrano
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA4.85
FIP4.85
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.9%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%9.7%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 7 | 3 | 27 | 121 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 13.5% | 12.4% | 5.8% | 4.67 | 6.71 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 9 | 5 | 28 | 111 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 1.27 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 13 | 3 | 32 | 129 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 12.8% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 3.41 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 25 | 0 | 56 | 249 | 47 | 21 | 9 | 14.0% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 27 | 3 | 52 | 244 | 43 | 35 | 6 | 15.0% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 5.75 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 17 | 3 | 37 | 163 | 25 | 10 | 6 | 12.6% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.82 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 19.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 19.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 19.6% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 17 | 232 | 1017 | 146 | 103 | 35 | 14.4% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 5.05 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 15 | 200 | 878 | 126 | 89 | 30 | 14.4% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 5.05 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Florencio Serrano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.81 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 97 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 87 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 86 |
| Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.56 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 48 | -0.30 | 4.56 | 158 | 86 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 86 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 85 |
| Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 85 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 85 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 84 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 84 |
| Guido Knudson R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 106 | 84 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.05 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.2% | .316 | 6.06 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +2.01 | 3.50 | 261 | 83 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.86 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .289 | 5.96 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 33 | +2.10 | 3.86 | 242 | 83 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 83 |
| Bayden Root R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 102 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 82 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.13 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 4.1% | .267 | 2.91 | 26.9% | 15.2% | 69 | -2.22 | 1.48 | 230 | 82 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 82 |
| Josh Hejka R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 2.9% | .363 | 3.93 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 77 | -0.74 | 2.91 | 166 | 82 |
| Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.62 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .338 | 5.20 | 14.2% | 5.1% | 63 | +0.58 | 3.97 | 345 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.