Eiberson Castellano

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 214 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	22	20	104	3.99	2.69	31.3%	6.7%	—	K 24.6% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.67
2025	24	MIX2 levels	21	2	36	6.44	3.79	22.7%	9.9%	—	K 19.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.23
2026	25	MIX3 levels	26	13	116	4.36	3.94	21.4%	13.0%	2.0	K 18.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 4.36
2027PROJ	26	MLBCOL	87	0	91	4.86	4.86	19.0%	12.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ74% MLB	27	MLBCOL	71	0	75	4.83	4.84	19.3%	12.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ80% MLB	28	MLBCOL	66	0	69	4.84	4.88	19.4%	12.1%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Ryan Vanderhei (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%19.0%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	16	1	33	137	36	16	1	6%	2.1	17.9%	14.6%	3.3%	1.2%	1.09	4.09	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	16	1	33	137	36	16	1	6%	2.1	26.3%	11.7%	14.6%	0.7%	1.09	2.77	—
2022	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	17	8	51	207	61	18	4	47%	3.0	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.5%	3.51	3.94	—
2022	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	17	8	51	207	61	18	4	47%	3.0	29.5%	8.7%	20.8%	1.9%	3.51	2.79	—
2023	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	22	7	50	234	58	28	3	32%	2.3	18.3%	14.1%	4.2%	1.7%	5.04	4.25	—
2023	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	22	7	50	234	58	28	3	32%	2.3	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	1.3%	5.04	3.24	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	104	434	136	29	11	91%	4.7	24.6%	7.6%	17.0%	3.1%	3.99	3.67	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	104	434	136	29	11	91%	4.7	24.6%	7.6%	17.0%	3.1%	3.99	3.67	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	104	434	136	29	11	91%	4.7	31.3%	6.7%	24.7%	2.5%	3.99	2.69	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	2	36	172	39	17	4	10%	1.7	19.6%	9.6%	10.1%	2.9%	6.44	4.23	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	2	36	172	39	17	4	10%	1.7	19.6%	9.6%	10.1%	2.9%	6.44	4.23	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	2	36	172	39	17	4	10%	1.7	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	2.3%	6.44	3.79	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	13	116	523	112	68	9	50%	4.4	18.0%	13.0%	5.0%	2.1%	4.36	4.36	+1.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	13	116	523	112	68	9	50%	4.4	18.0%	13.0%	5.0%	2.1%	4.36	4.36	+1.4
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	13	116	523	112	68	9	50%	4.4	21.4%	13.0%	8.4%	1.7%	4.36	3.94	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	3	12	2	0	0	0%	3.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	COL	87	0	91	384	73	49	10	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.7%	6.3%	2.5%	4.86	4.86	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	97	0	101	428	83	53	11	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	2.6%	4.83	4.84	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	83	0	87	366	71	44	10	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.84	4.88	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	74	0	78	329	63	40	10	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.1%	7.2%	2.9%	4.91	4.98	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	67	0	70	296	56	36	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.3%	6.7%	3.1%	5.04	5.14	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	71	0	75	317	61	39	8	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	2.6%	4.83	4.84	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	66	0	69	291	56	35	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.84	4.88	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	62	0	65	274	53	33	8	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.1%	7.2%	2.9%	4.91	4.98	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	57	0	60	253	48	31	8	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.3%	6.7%	3.1%	5.04	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	0	273	1152	221	139	32	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.1%	7.1%	2.8%	4.84	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	844	162	102	23	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.1%	7.1%	2.8%	4.84	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		124	51	390	1707	347	192	40	41%	3.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	2.3%	4.15	4.09	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	26	200	875	178	98	20	41%	3.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	2.3%	4.15	4.09	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 60 IPFIP 3.82 → 3.93 (+0.11)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.21%	—	×0.860	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.54%	—	×0.900	13.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 53 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.89 (+0.81)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.14%	—	×0.810	18.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×1.100	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 35 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.23 (+0.71)K% 24.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.22%	—	×0.810	19.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.100	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.036	×1.200	2.88%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 63 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.75 (+1.18)K% 31.6% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.62%	—	×0.770	24.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×1.150	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷0.926	×1.250	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 40 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.55 (+0.66)K% 30.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.86%	—	×0.810	25.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.100	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.137	×1.200	3.26%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 50 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.25 (+1.03)K% 24.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.79%	—	×0.740	18.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.97%	—	×1.180	14.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 51 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.94 (+1.16)K% 29.5% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.47%	—	×0.740	21.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.51%

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Phillies White · 33 IPFIP 2.76 → 4.09 (+1.33)K% 26.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.28%	—	×0.680	17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.68%	—	×1.250	14.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.73%	÷0.864	×1.400	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eiberson Castellano (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.89	19.3%	7.1%	266	+0.03	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	80
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	74
Ryan Vanderhei R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.4%	14.1%	0.8%	.284	4.45	17.9%	2.9%	114	+0.50	3.75	152	74
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Victor Santos R 2003 · 5.99 FIP	26	SP-	5.99	12.8%	12.8%	4.3%	.293	4.38	15.4%	7.7%	411	-1.61	4.09	602	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	72
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	72
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.55	20.8%	9.1%	172	-1.27	2.64	280	72
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	71
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	71
Sam Lewis R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	16.7%	9.6%	2.6%	.323	3.41	21.0%	10.2%	48	-0.92	2.21	224	70
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	70
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	70
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	70
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	70
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	69
Sam LeCure R 2010 · 4.35 FIP	26	SW	4.35	17.1%	10.1%	2.6%	.289	3.07	25.1%	17.2%	196	-1.28	2.69	472	69
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	68
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	68
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	95	19.1%	12.3%	1.05	4.85
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42
Frank Reberger ('68-'72, -1 WAR*)	1.9	97	19.1%*	10.9%*	1.08*	5.19*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82