Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 16 | 1 | 33 | 137 | 36 | 16 | 1 | 6% | 2.1 | 17.9% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.09 | 4.21 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 16 | 1 | 33 | 137 | 36 | 16 | 1 | 6% | 2.1 | 26.3% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 0.7% | 1.09 | 2.77 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 17 | 8 | 51 | 207 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 47% | 3.0 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 3.51 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 17 | 8 | 51 | 207 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 47% | 3.0 | 29.5% | 8.7% | 20.8% | 1.9% | 3.51 | 2.79 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 7 | 50 | 234 | 58 | 28 | 3 | 32% | 2.3 | 18.3% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 5.04 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 7 | 50 | 234 | 58 | 28 | 3 | 32% | 2.3 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 1.3% | 5.04 | 3.24 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 104 | 434 | 136 | 29 | 11 | 91% | 4.7 | 24.6% | 7.6% | 17.0% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 3.69 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 104 | 434 | 136 | 29 | 11 | 91% | 4.7 | 31.3% | 6.7% | 24.7% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 2.69 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 2 | 36 | 172 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 10% | 1.7 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 6.44 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 2 | 36 | 172 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 10% | 1.7 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 2.3% | 6.44 | 3.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 16 | 10 | 78 | 337 | 76 | 40 | 6 | 62% | 4.9 | 18.9% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 3.01 | 4.41 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 80 | 338 | 76 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 80 | 338 | 76 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 158 | 675 | 152 | 73 | 16 | — | — | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 3.74 | 4.43 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 83 | 351 | 152 | 73 | 16 | — | — | 43.3% | 20.8% | 22.6% | 4.6% | 7.10 | 4.58 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 118 | 0 | 124 | 522 | 119 | 49 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 116 | 0 | 122 | 514 | 117 | 48 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 112 | 0 | 118 | 498 | 113 | 47 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 110 | 0 | 116 | 490 | 111 | 46 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 234 | 11 | 316 | 1335 | 302 | 126 | 39 | 5% | 1.4 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.01 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 7 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 80 | 25 | 5% | 1.4 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 48 | 352 | 1521 | 317 | 169 | 37 | 42% | 3.1 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 4.07 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 27 | 200 | 864 | 180 | 96 | 21 | 42% | 3.1 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eiberson Castellano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.39 | 22.7% | 13.3% | 246 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 87 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 85 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 82 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.25 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.63 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.38 | 3.25 | 221 | 82 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 81 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .273 | 4.29 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 172 | -0.12 | 3.36 | 432 | 81 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 80 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 80 |
| Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 80 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 79 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.75 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .277 | 5.30 | 15.8% | 6.3% | 164 | +1.55 | 3.73 | 550 | 79 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.60 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 4.0% | .358 | 3.05 | 25.5% | 19.0% | 196 | -1.55 | 2.28 | 473 | 78 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 78 |
| Brad Lord R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.14 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 21.0% | 13.3% | 58 | -0.29 | 3.42 | 419 | 78 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 77 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.19 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 4.0% | .267 | 3.90 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 112 | -1.29 | 3.53 | 383 | 77 |
| Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.91 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.00 | 3.91 | 223 | 77 |
| Alex Colomé R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .309 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.39 | 2.72 | 530 | 76 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 110 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 1.15 | 4.41 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |