Aneury Lora
P
Inland Empire 66ers
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 155 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.8 · 2030
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.5%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 8 | 7 | 20 | 90 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 16.6% | 11.1% | 1.5% | 4.05 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 7 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 14 | 7 | 42 | 188 | 35 | 16 | 1 | 13.5% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 4.97 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 36 | 1 | 81 | 359 | 76 | 27 | 3 | 15.7% | 8.9% | 1.5% | 5.20 | 3.73 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 69 | 289 | 63 | 26 | 7 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 65 | 25 | 8 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 67 | 25 | 8 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 68 | 25 | 8 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.08 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 68 | 25 | 8 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.09 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 67 | 24 | 8 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 65 | 24 | 8 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 62 | 24 | 8 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 59 | 23 | 8 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 21.8% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 16 | 153 | 678 | 108 | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | 9.2% | 1.5% | 4.75 | 3.74 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 21 | 200 | 884 | 141 | 82 | 13 | 15.9% | 9.2% | 1.5% | 4.75 | 3.74 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aneury Lora (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.16 | 22.3% | 13.7% | 207 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 96 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 95 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.34 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.63 | 4.71 | 137 | 94 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.39 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 139 | 94 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 93 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.21 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.11 | 3.71 | 301 | 92 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.81 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.92 | 13.9% | 7.0% | 196 | +1.11 | 3.81 | 264 | 92 |
| Craig Missigman R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.02 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.04 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 53 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 124 | 92 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 91 |
| Brett Standlee R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 91 |
| Dylan Simmons R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.33 | 12.8% | 0.9% | 51 | +0.50 | 3.83 | 102 | 91 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 91 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.84 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .305 | 5.79 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +1.95 | 3.84 | 190 | 91 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 90 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .310 | 4.94 | 23.2% | 16.7% | 134 | +1.20 | 3.74 | 205 | 90 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.93 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .254 | 3.71 | 22.4% | 14.4% | 89 | -0.22 | 2.30 | 189 | 90 |
| Jack Carey R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.70 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.28 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 156 | -0.42 | 3.79 | 217 | 90 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.78 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .290 | 5.27 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.49 | 3.36 | 191 | 90 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.28 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .350 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.57 | 3.68 | 147 | 90 |
| Marcel Rentería R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.12 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 81 | +0.00 | 3.91 | 194 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $15M | +$11M | ||