Aneury Lora — OGILVIE

Aneury Lora P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 155 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%14.4%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%4.5%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	8	7	20	90	22	8	1	88%	2.5	16.6%	11.1%	5.5%	1.5%	4.05	3.95	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	8	7	20	90	22	8	1	88%	2.5	24.4%	8.9%	15.6%	1.1%	4.05	2.75	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	7	1	7	27	5	1	1	14%	1.0	18.5%	3.7%	14.8%	3.7%	2.70	4.04	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	7	1	7	27	5	1	1	14%	1.0	18.5%	3.7%	14.8%	3.7%	2.70	4.04	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	7	1	7	27	5	1	1	14%	1.0	18.5%	3.7%	14.8%	3.7%	2.70	4.00	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	7	42	188	35	16	1	50%	3.0	13.5%	9.9%	3.6%	1.1%	4.97	3.81	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	7	42	188	35	16	1	50%	3.0	13.5%	9.9%	3.6%	1.1%	4.97	3.81	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	7	42	188	35	16	1	50%	3.0	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	0.5%	4.97	2.88	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	36	1	81	359	76	27	3	3%	2.3	15.7%	8.9%	6.8%	1.4%	5.20	3.69	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	36	1	81	359	76	27	3	3%	2.3	15.7%	8.9%	6.8%	1.4%	5.20	3.69	—
2025	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	36	1	81	359	76	27	3	3%	2.3	21.2%	7.5%	13.6%	0.8%	5.20	2.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	35	0	58	253	59	21	5	0%	1.7	17.3%	9.8%	7.5%	2.6%	4.63	4.29	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	35	0	58	253	59	21	5	0%	1.7	17.3%	9.8%	7.5%	2.6%	4.63	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SEA	35	0	58	253	59	21	5	0%	1.7	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	2.0%	4.63	3.27	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	72	0	76	320	53	31	9	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.83	4.77	-0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	74	0	78	328	58	31	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	2.7%	4.70	4.63	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	75	0	79	333	61	31	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.2%	9.3%	2.7%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	75	0	79	333	62	30	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	9.1%	9.6%	2.7%	4.56	4.53	+0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	74	0	78	328	61	30	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.2%	9.5%	2.7%	4.56	4.57	-0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	72	0	75	318	59	30	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	68	0	72	304	56	29	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.72	4.78	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	64	0	68	285	51	28	9	0%	1.1	18.0%	9.9%	8.1%	3.2%	4.86	4.96	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	35	0	37	156	26	15	4	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.83	4.77	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	51	0	54	228	41	21	6	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	2.7%	4.70	4.63	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	61	0	64	270	50	25	7	0%	1.0	18.4%	9.2%	9.3%	2.7%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	66	0	69	291	55	27	8	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.6%	2.7%	4.56	4.53	+0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	67	0	70	296	55	27	8	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.2%	9.5%	2.7%	4.56	4.57	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	66	0	69	291	54	27	8	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	64	0	67	283	52	27	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	9.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.72	4.78	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	60	0	63	266	48	26	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	9.9%	8.1%	3.2%	4.86	4.96	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		470	0	494	2086	381	196	59	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.4%	8.9%	2.8%	4.67	4.29	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	79	24	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.4%	8.9%	2.8%	4.67	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		100	16	208	917	145	86	16	16%	2.1	15.8%	9.4%	6.4%	1.7%	4.80	3.91	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	15	200	882	140	83	15	16%	2.1	15.8%	9.4%	6.4%	1.7%	4.80	3.91	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aneury Lora (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	14.4%	9.9%	2.7%	—	4.65	17.6%	8.3%	232	-0.35	—	—	—
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	90
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	90
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	90
Mariano Rivera R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	12.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.290	4.12	13.5%	5.8%	66	-0.48	3.64	135	89
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	89
Jaime Lugo R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	23	SU	4.24	13.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.305	3.89	12.4%	3.6%	162	-0.35	3.69	287	88
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	88
Joel Cesar R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	22	SU	4.30	16.3%	12.0%	1.9%	.267	5.21	18.0%	9.9%	38	+0.91	4.30	127	88
Alexis Rivero R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	15.3%	10.0%	2.8%	.286	5.36	13.1%	2.1%	86	+0.74	3.86	280	87
Carlos Torres R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SU	4.10	15.2%	9.0%	2.1%	.315	4.39	15.2%	8.6%	125	+0.29	3.71	187	87
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	87
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	87
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	87
Simon Mercedes R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	23	SU	4.86	14.3%	11.7%	2.7%	.309	4.94	16.4%	3.9%	60	+0.08	4.86	139	87
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	87
Troy Neiman R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.47	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.07	4.03	199	86
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.22	528	86
Zac Reininger R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	22	SU	4.92	11.8%	9.8%	2.9%	.286	3.34	21.1%	13.6%	125	-1.58	2.58	259	86
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	86
Anyelo Leclerc R 2015 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	16.2%	9.8%	3.7%	.326	4.65	15.9%	6.1%	96	-0.35	4.65	140	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	73	17.9%	9.4%	1.08	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70