Daniel Corniel — OGILVIE

Daniel Corniel P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 177 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%19.4%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	10	9	42	183	47	14	3	90%	4.2	17.5%	9.6%	7.9%	1.2%	4.97	3.50	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	10	9	42	183	47	14	3	90%	4.2	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	1.6%	4.97	2.79	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	11	8	36	161	48	22	3	73%	3.3	20.3%	17.1%	3.2%	2.9%	5.70	5.15	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	11	8	36	161	48	22	3	73%	3.3	20.3%	17.1%	3.2%	2.9%	5.70	5.15	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	11	8	36	161	48	22	3	73%	3.3	29.8%	13.7%	16.1%	1.9%	5.70	3.35	—
2024	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	21	21	99	414	95	46	6	100%	4.7	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	1.7%	4.29	4.27	—
2024	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	21	21	99	414	95	46	6	100%	4.7	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	1.7%	4.29	4.27	—
2024	20	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	21	21	99	414	95	46	6	100%	4.7	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	1.4%	4.29	3.36	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	1	0	3	12	4	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	3.00	0.29	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	1	0	3	12	4	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	3.00	0.29	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	1	0	3	12	4	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	3.00	0.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	17	11	50	210	36	17	5	65%	2.9	12.6%	11.0%	1.6%	2.1%	5.04	4.60	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	17	11	50	210	36	17	5	65%	2.9	12.6%	11.0%	1.6%	2.1%	5.04	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	MIL	5	5	9	33	7	0	2	100%	1.8	21.2%	0.0%	21.2%	6.1%	2.00	4.64	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIL	12	6	41	177	29	17	3	50%	3.4	16.4%	9.6%	6.8%	1.7%	5.71	3.86	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	MIL	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	5.8	19.4%	12.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.04	5.04	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	56	235	41	20	6	—	—	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	2.4%	5.04	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	92	389	80	44	11	100%	5.4	20.6%	11.3%	9.3%	2.8%	4.82	4.73	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	94	399	85	41	11	100%	5.6	21.3%	10.4%	11.0%	2.8%	4.63	4.54	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	96	404	88	40	11	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.50	4.43	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	96	404	89	39	11	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	2.8%	4.44	4.40	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	94	398	87	39	11	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	2.9%	4.44	4.44	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	91	386	84	38	11	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.52	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	87	369	80	37	11	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.65	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	82	347	74	36	11	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	77	323	74	32	11	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.75	4.76	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	71	299	67	31	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	3.8%	4.89	4.99	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	46	194	40	22	6	100%	5.1	20.6%	11.3%	9.3%	3.0%	4.90	4.81	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	66	279	59	29	8	100%	5.5	21.3%	10.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.71	4.62	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	78	329	72	32	10	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.58	4.51	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	84	355	78	34	10	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.0%	4.52	4.48	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	85	359	79	35	11	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.52	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	84	355	77	35	11	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.57	4.60	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	81	342	74	35	11	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.74	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	77	325	69	34	11	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.82	4.92	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	73	308	70	31	11	100%	6.1	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	3.7%	4.85	4.86	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	67	283	63	29	11	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	4.0%	4.99	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	125	740	3125	681	317	101	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.32	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	86	27	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		60	49	230	980	165	122	18	82%	3.8	16.9%	12.5%	4.4%	1.9%	4.78	4.29	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	853	144	107	16	82%	3.8	16.9%	12.5%	4.4%	1.9%	4.78	4.29	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Corniel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	19.4%	12.8%	2.9%	—	4.56	21.3%	10.8%	282	-0.48	—	—	—
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	89
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	89
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	87
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	86
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	85
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	85
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	85
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	85
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	85
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	84
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	84
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	83
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	86	21.6%	10.4%	1.18	4.65
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59