Luis Victorino — OGILVIE

Luis Victorino P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 167 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%20.4%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	12	6	34	137	38	14	2	50%	2.9	18.9%	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	2.88	4.26	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	12	6	34	137	38	14	2	50%	2.9	27.7%	10.2%	17.5%	1.5%	2.88	2.87	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	12	0	19	89	18	19	0	0%	1.6	13.8%	26.7%	-12.9%	0.0%	4.26	5.32	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	12	0	19	89	18	19	0	0%	1.6	13.8%	26.7%	-12.9%	0.0%	4.26	5.32	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	12	0	19	89	18	19	0	0%	1.6	20.2%	21.3%	-1.1%	0.0%	4.26	4.21	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	14	5	41	185	41	31	2	36%	2.9	15.1%	20.9%	-5.9%	1.4%	3.32	5.23	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	14	5	41	185	41	31	2	36%	2.9	15.1%	20.9%	-5.9%	1.4%	3.32	5.23	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	14	5	41	185	41	31	2	36%	2.9	22.2%	16.8%	5.4%	1.1%	3.32	4.01	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	17	2	24	115	32	15	1	12%	1.4	18.9%	16.3%	2.6%	1.3%	2.62	4.27	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	17	2	24	115	32	15	1	12%	1.4	18.9%	16.3%	2.6%	1.3%	2.62	4.27	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	17	2	24	115	32	15	1	12%	1.4	27.8%	13.0%	14.8%	0.9%	2.62	2.85	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	20	0	31	159	24	19	4	0%	1.6	11.2%	14.1%	-2.9%	3.3%	6.39	5.74	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	20	0	31	159	24	19	4	0%	1.6	11.2%	14.1%	-2.9%	3.3%	6.39	5.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TOR	20	0	31	159	24	19	4	0%	1.6	15.1%	11.9%	3.1%	2.5%	6.39	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	36	0	38	158	34	23	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	14.8%	6.5%	2.9%	5.24	5.13	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	15	0	16	68	14	10	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.8%	6.5%	2.9%	5.24	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	14	10	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.8%	6.5%	2.9%	5.24	4.75	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	125	25	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.8%	6.5%	2.9%	5.24	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		75	13	149	685	105	121	12	17%	2.0	15.4%	17.7%	-2.3%	1.8%	3.87	5.00	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	17	200	919	142	163	16	17%	2.0	15.4%	17.7%	-2.3%	1.8%	3.87	5.00	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Victorino (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	20.4%	17.2%	2.9%	—	5.13	21.3%	6.5%	38	-0.40	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	83
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	83
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	83
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	82
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	82
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	82
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	82
Carson Coleman R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	23	SU	4.41	21.1%	17.8%	1.5%	.347	2.40	30.2%	21.7%	63	-2.01	2.40	143	81
Mason McCullough R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	23	SU	4.60	20.8%	19.2%	1.5%	.340	3.93	26.7%	6.9%	77	-0.67	3.33	154	81
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.0%	15.5%	1.11	5.33
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84